Macro Weekly It takes courage to forecast a recession

Abn Amro
By October 10, 2019 11:55

Macro Weekly It takes courage to forecast a recession

Economists are not very good at forecasting recessions. I really should rephrase that. Economists are very good at ‘forecasting’ recessions, but usually only when the downturn has actually already started. They (perhaps I should say: we) are not good at forecasting recessions sufficiently early for policymakers, companies, investors and ordinary people to take mitigating actions. It takes courage to forecast a recession. Actually, some economists have plenty of this type of courage and they are more or less always forecasting things to get worse. They are the eternal doomsayers who enjoy their moments in the sun when they are occasionally and inevitably right. For some time after, they tend to be introduced as ‘Mr or Ms Such-and-Such, who correctly predicted this or that disaster’. As their predictions of the next disaster turn out incorrect they gradually disappear from the limelight.

Abn Amro
By October 10, 2019 11:55

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