PessimISM…

Columbia Threadneedle
By October 8, 2019 16:29

PessimISM…

Core government bond yields were lower last week and are back to close to the recent lows. They were pushed along this path by lower manufacturing sentiment indices. Specifically, the release of PMI data in the US reinforced the idea that manufacturing is in recession in developed markets. The ISM index fell to 47.8, which was lower than expected and the most pessimistic since the summer of 2009 – see chart of the week. The Service Sector index has also fallen but remains above the key 50 level at 52.6. Propping up the economy is the consumer. News out last Friday showed that the US unemployment rate declined to a 50 year low of 3.5%. This was accompanied by the news of the creation of 136k jobs (exp 145k). Wages are rising, albeit more slowly, at 2.9% y/y. In the UK/Europe there is still little clarity about Brexit. This week got off to a bad start as German factory orders declined by 0.6% m/m, taking the annual rate to -6.7%. 

Columbia Threadneedle
By October 8, 2019 16:29

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