Asset Allocation Strategy October 2019

Edmond de Rothschild
By October 10, 2019 17:37

Asset Allocation Strategy October 2019

 The economic and political climate is glum, and things continue to worsen. Although we do not predict a recession in the foreseeable future, we nevertheless cannot identify any factor likely to reverse the cycle.

Looking at historical economic data for the US, we see that the slowdown began in the Spring 2018, before the “trade war” began ramping up, probably under the effect of downwards pressure on margins. However, it goes without saying that the trade war has drastically amplified the corporate investment slowdown due to the rising uncertainty, dragging the manufacturing sector towards a recession. To tell the truth, this cautious outlook is somewhat consensual and can also be seen among investors. Faced with this slowdown, the biggest news is that the authorities this time wasted no time on launching their counter-attack. The Federal Reserve and European Central Bank were very quick to lighten their monetary policy and the possibility of a stimulus plan has already been discussed on both sides of the Atlantic, which is a good news, but not yet concrete enough to prompt a reverse in the forecasts. 

Edmond de Rothschild
By October 10, 2019 17:37

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