The Fed and Trade

Northern Trust
By October 7, 2019 11:34

The Fed and Trade

During its discussions this month, the investment strategy team spent considerable time debating the outlook for Federal Reserve policy and the path forward for the U.S.- China trade dispute, including its impact on the global growth outlook. Despite the considerable gulf between market expectations for rate cuts and the Fed’s current posturing, we expect the Fed to grudgingly move toward the market’s expectation of four cuts of 0.25% over the next year. The Fed is likely to be a latecomer to our Monetary Makeover theme, which predicts central bankers will increasingly gaze outside of their traditional remit to further support growth and inflation as monetary accommodation loses its punch. We see the European Central Bank at the front of the pack, as highlighted by incoming president Christine Lagarde’s recent commentary calling for increased fiscal stimulus. 

Northern Trust
By October 7, 2019 11:34

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