Fading Optimism On Trade

Fading Optimism On Trade

🕔13:12, 25.Oct 2019

Global markets went on a rollercoaster ride in the past two weeks amid shifting developments in the U.S.-China trade dispute. As negotiators headed into the 13th round of trade talks in Washington on October 10 and 11, stocks sold off

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Brexit coming to the crunch while global manufacturing remains weak

Brexit coming to the crunch while global manufacturing remains weak

🕔12:07, 25.Oct 2019

UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson reached a deal with the EU on Brexit. The deal takes the ‘backstop’ out of the equation, but puts an economic border in the Irish Sea. At the time of writing European leaders still have

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Perspectives Global Equities

Perspectives Global Equities

🕔10:57, 25.Oct 2019

Economy and markets: central banks supportive, but business pessimism grows Factors: factor reversal in September Valuation: the biggest valuation opportunity in 20 years Earnings: EPS growth remains muted but stable

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Re-balance sheet policy

Re-balance sheet policy

🕔09:56, 25.Oct 2019

Monthly Investment Strategy We have seen progress on global risks in recent weeks. A partial trade agreement between the US and China is being negotiated, to be finalised at a meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi

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Geopolitics’ clout on markets persists

Geopolitics’ clout on markets persists

🕔09:10, 25.Oct 2019

A perceived de-escalation in U.S.-China tensions and Brexit has driven up risk assets, yet we see geopolitical risks staying at elevated levels. Signs that weakness caused by the protectionist push is spreading beyond manufacturing have cast a shadow on the

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High Yield Bond Opportunities Are Going Global

High Yield Bond Opportunities Are Going Global

🕔07:46, 25.Oct 2019

A truly global high yield strategy can provide diversification. Fixed income investors may want to focus on higher-yielding, sub-investment-grade strategies as global central banks shift back into monetary easing, pushing yields on high-quality investment-grade bonds to very low—or negative—levels. In

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New economy, same old returns?

🕔23:08, 24.Oct 2019 Read Full Article
Limbo for markets will not last forever

Limbo for markets will not last forever

🕔17:34, 24.Oct 2019

Bad but not so bad news left the market in a limbo: equity markets were more or less flat in the month, treasury yields remained in the 1.5 / 1.8 range and credit spreads also remained within the trading range

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The Implications of Reopened Credit Spigots and a Trade Time-Out

The Implications of Reopened Credit Spigots and a Trade Time-Out

🕔17:08, 24.Oct 2019

Last quarter’s return of extremely accommodating monetary policies and the renewal of US-China trade talks were the two most significant developments affecting our five-year outlook as expressed in our Capital Market Line (CML). Since our CML focuses on how events

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Progress on two key ingredients of the EU Sustainable Finance agenda

Progress on two key ingredients of the EU Sustainable Finance agenda

🕔15:30, 24.Oct 2019

Last year, as part of the EU’s commitment to fighting climate change and moving to a low-carbon economy, the European Commission published its Action Plan for Financing Sustainable Growth. This Kempen newsletter looks at two key ingredients of this plan,

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Stock-Picking Alpha Q4 outlook

Stock-Picking Alpha Q4 outlook

🕔15:10, 24.Oct 2019

Active strategies’ relative performance in Q3 were slightly weaker than in Q2, though uneven across regions. Uncertainties soared early in Q3 with the breakup of the summer U.S.-China trade truce and bold British PM Johnson’s tactics. Later, signs of a

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The Great Fall of China?

The Great Fall of China?

🕔14:00, 24.Oct 2019

Core bond yields continued their drift higher last week. There is now a decent gap between the low in 10- year yields experienced in August (1.4% in USA /-0.7% in Germany) and today’s valuations. In China, the release of a

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Keep a cautious stance in risk assets amid lack of visibility on future earnings growth

Keep a cautious stance in risk assets amid lack of visibility on future earnings growth

🕔13:01, 24.Oct 2019

Bad but not so bad news left the market in a limbo: equity markets were more or less flat in the month, treasury yields remained in the 1.5 / 1.8 range and credit spreads also remained within the trading range

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The Big Bang Moment: Bringing the virtual into Asian financials

The Big Bang Moment: Bringing the virtual into Asian financials

🕔11:59, 24.Oct 2019

The largest sector in the Asia investment universe is being disrupted and digitally re-imagined by a wave of new competition challenging legacy business models. This revolution is being driven by regulation and technology. We believe these drivers of change are

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Industrial Metals Insights Economic turmoil affects metal prices

Industrial Metals Insights Economic turmoil affects metal prices

🕔11:11, 24.Oct 2019

Prices in metal markets are heavily influenced by cyclical trends Base Metals: weakening global economic growth is dampening prices Steel: output is high with weak manufacturing demand, particularly for cars Steel (raw materials): cheapest types of iron ore remain popular

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Four charts that show why “old tech” might surprise income investors

Four charts that show why “old tech” might surprise income investors

🕔09:49, 24.Oct 2019

For decades, dividends have largely been associated with companies from more mature areas of the market such as utilities or telecommunications. Meanwhile, technology has long remained an afterthought. But what happens when tech grows up? Areas of the sector are

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Does record low for China growth mark a turning point?

Does record low for China growth mark a turning point?

🕔08:41, 24.Oct 2019

We think the Chinese economy could be about to turn the corner as growth hits a modern-era low.  Official Chinese growth data reached a new modern-era low in the third quarter of 2019, of 6% from 6.2% previously. Yet some

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QE by another name? Clarifying announced balance sheet expansion

QE by another name? Clarifying announced balance sheet expansion

🕔07:41, 24.Oct 2019

Following ongoing turbulence in the repo market, the Federal Reserve announced last week that it would begin expanding its balance sheet once more through permanent open market operations (read the latest article on the repo market here: Don’t fear the

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What happens to high yield bonds in times of market stress

What happens to high yield bonds in times of market stress

🕔18:01, 23.Oct 2019

We look at whether investors are right to be wary of high yield bonds amid rising macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty The current macroeconomic backdrop is creating challenges for investors. Global growth is slower and inflation is benign. Meanwhile, central banks

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Asset Allocation View – October 2019

Asset Allocation View – October 2019

🕔16:52, 23.Oct 2019

Maintaining a focus on quality credit: 2019 has seen a spike in overall levels of negative yielding debt. This has resulted in the ‘reach-for-yield’ becoming even more pronounced, and investors moving down the capital structure to earn income. Against this

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Bonds – Losing my Religion

Bonds – Losing my Religion

🕔15:56, 23.Oct 2019

Bond yields plunged to historic lows in August, which left 40% of the ICE BoAML Global Government Bond Index total bond market capitalisation trading at negative nominal and even more negative real yields. Austrian century bonds were the star of

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Varps Remains Compelling

Varps Remains Compelling

🕔14:47, 23.Oct 2019

GAM Investments’ Tim Love reflects on the performance of his frontier market plays, Vietnam, Argentina, Romania, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia (VARPS) so far this year and discusses the investment opportunities and risks associated with these economies.

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The SRI Chronicles

The SRI Chronicles

🕔13:44, 23.Oct 2019

Current news is focusing on an issue that nevertheless concerns an expected long-term time horizon, i.e. 2030-2100. The issue of climate change and the challenge of limiting global warming to +2.0°C, even less if possible, on the only planet we

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Aerial View Magazine: Deciphering a Repo Dislocation

Aerial View Magazine: Deciphering a Repo Dislocation

🕔12:39, 23.Oct 2019

 I f there is one thing that whips up Wall Street, it is any sort of bottle- neck in ordinarily placid short-term money markets. So in September, when getting overnight loans in exchange for US Treasuries suddenly became expensive—much sooner

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The end of a cutting cycle ahead?

The end of a cutting cycle ahead?

🕔11:33, 23.Oct 2019

With two 25 basis-points (bps) rate-cut moves already in 2019, the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) may face tougher decisions in the meetings ahead. For example, have those cuts sufficiently helped to insulate the economy from existing risks? Is a more

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