Cautious Expectations for Trade Negotiations

PGIM
By October 21, 2019 08:03

Cautious Expectations for Trade Negotiations

We have relatively cautious expectations for this week’s U.S./China trade negotiations. A potential truce or de-escalation in the trade war is a “good news” card for President Trump, and he could wait for additional political developments over the next six weeks before playing any “good news” card. Trump will be in a better place electorally if there are fewer tariffs in place, not more. Thus, we see a probability of about 60% that Trump forgoes another increase in tariffs next week. Even if some tariffs are eventually rolled back, this “good news” scenario is not nearly as good as the one that existed last spring. 

PGIM
By October 21, 2019 08:03

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