Will consumers catch the global economy’s cold?

Wellington
By October 8, 2019 12:00

Will consumers catch the global economy’s cold?

While the trade war has been dominating markets recently, we have little edge in predicting its near-term path and prefer to invest based on our view of the global economy, monetary policy, and valuations. We continue to incorporate trade-war uncertainty into our outlook by assuming its long-term impact will be to depress business investment. But our multi-asset views for the next 6 – 12 months are more directly tied to global manufacturing, which we think is in a recession, and the risk that consumers may not be immune. We think central banks will provide support but struggle to satisfy the market’s aggressive expectations. Weighing these inputs, we continue to recommend that investors consider positioning their portfolios with a defensive tilt. 

Wellington
By October 8, 2019 12:00

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