Gunpowder, treason & plot.

Gunpowder, treason & plot.

🕔18:11, 7.Nov 2019

Macro / government bonds We got the first reading of US GDP for Q3 last week. The economy is actually growing stronger than expected at 1.9% q/q annualised (exp 1.6% / 2.0% in Q2). It remains propped up by a

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Reiterating our cautiously constructive market outlook

Reiterating our cautiously constructive market outlook

🕔16:34, 7.Nov 2019

LGT Beacon – Global macro and market review Despite the so-called trade war, China's CSI 300 has rallied almost 30% year-to-date and the S&P 500 is up about 15%. In-vestors, it seems, are learning to live with the intensifying great power

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Macro and earnings no worse than feared, but is this rally justified?

Macro and earnings no worse than feared, but is this rally justified?

🕔15:51, 7.Nov 2019

An October treat: strong equity rally as macro data are no worse than feared Trimming 2020E S&P 500 EPS from 173 USD to 170 USD, 4% growth Fed fully delivered on its "insurance" rate cuts: What from here? We are

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Limbo for markets will not last forever

Limbo for markets will not last forever

🕔15:00, 7.Nov 2019

Bad but not so bad news left the market in a limbo: equity markets were more or less flat in the month, treasury yields remained in the 1.5 / 1.8 range and credit spreads also remained within the trading range

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Northern Trust Global Election predictionsAllocation Investment Perspective / October 2019

Northern Trust Global Election predictionsAllocation Investment Perspective / October 2019

🕔14:03, 7.Nov 2019

Northern Trust Global Asset Allocation Investment Perspective / October 2019  In addition to assessing the severity of the global economic slowdown, markets are wrestling with the U.S./China trade war, Brexit and the 2020 U.S. presidential election. The rising poll numbers

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Why CTAs

Why CTAs

🕔13:09, 7.Nov 2019

Investors’ three main arguments for investing with CTAs are: Absolute Returns Since the turn of the millennium, CTAs (Société Générale CTA Index) have performed in line with global equities (MSCI World Total Return Gross) but at a significantly lower volatility. Diversification CTAs’ return stream stems from

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Core Matters

Core Matters

🕔12:11, 7.Nov 2019

Investment Returns: A 5-year perspective Macro & Market Research 2019 has seen huge inflows into Fixed Income (FI) funds and outflows from Equities. From a medium-term return perspective this makes no sense. The formidable demand for safe assets reflects cyclical and structural

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Markets may have changed a little but the fundamental trend has not

Markets may have changed a little but the fundamental trend has not

🕔10:30, 7.Nov 2019

The recent drop in political risk is a significant shift in a climate of almost constant one-upmanship. It is highly likely that hopes over a US-China deal and the diminishing risk of a hard Brexit mainly reflect the willingness of all concerned

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A National sport: Betting on Brexit

A National sport: Betting on Brexit

🕔09:34, 7.Nov 2019

‘OpinioPro Brexit Search Monitor’ The Brexit Saga has people searching for news by the hour across the globe. People don’t want to miss a thing and want to know when parliament is going to vote: see the surge in ‘Brexit vote

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US Fed takes a pill to sooth its ‘shrinking pains’

US Fed takes a pill to sooth its ‘shrinking pains’

🕔08:42, 7.Nov 2019

House View October 2019 A prominent topic in the last month (aside from the ECB’s aggressive new monetary stimulus) was the sudden cash crunch in the repo market, i.e., the market for very short-term, typically overnight, lending. On Monday, September 16,

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The macroeconomic and political backdrop is highly uncertain as investors face the final quarter of the year.

The macroeconomic and political backdrop is highly uncertain as investors face the final quarter of the year.

🕔07:46, 7.Nov 2019

Asset Allocation Navigator Fourth quarter 2019 Central banks cutting interest rates helps, but can’t fully offset the drag on growth from tariffs and trade policy uncertainty. The ‘skinny’ trade deal between the US and China suspends a planned tariff increase in mid-October, but

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