Slowly, slowly does it.

Columbia Threadneedle
By November 21, 2019 16:09

Slowly, slowly does it.

After a weak Q4 so far for rates markets, the last week provided a reversal of this fortune with prices higher in most areas. It was big week for economic data releases. The European economy continues to stumble on, as Germany managed to avoid a technical recession – GDP rose by 0.1% in Q3 19 (Q2 -0.2% q/q). This takes the annual rate of expansion to a meagre 0.5%. For the eurozone as a whole the news was better. GDP expanded by 0.2% q/q with Italy joining Germany as a laggard and with Spain and France doing better (0.3% / 0.4% q/q). The data also paints a picture of weak external growth and manufacturing with a more robust domestic performance. In the US, the key consumer price data was released. It rose by 0.4% m/m (1.8% y/y) and 0.2% (2.3% y/y) at a core level. Core prices were subdued by weaker rent and apparel prices. Retail sales rose by 0.3% m/m a tenth stronger than expected, while industrial production contracted by 0.8% m/m – hit by a strike at GM and a weather-related fall in utility output. Mining production was over 13% lower in the last year. The UK economy grew by 0.3% in Q3 after a reading of -0.2% in the prior three months – so no recession! This comes ahead of the General Election on 12 December. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate declined to 3.8%, though wage growth slowed somewhat to 3.6% y/y (from 3.9% a couple of month ago). It wasn’t just wage growth that fell. Consumer price inflation declined to 1.5% y/y from 1.7% the prior month led by a fall in energy prices.

Columbia Threadneedle
By November 21, 2019 16:09


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