A tale of s scenarios

Robeco
By November 15, 2019 12:56

A tale of s scenarios

Outlook 2020

The recurring theme of this outlook can be summarized in just two words: ‘what if?’. We expect the economic expansion to last a little longer, and the equity bull market to enter the last leg of a near decade-long climb. Based on expected global GDP growth, company earnings, and the relative value of equities compared to other assets, there is definitely a case for a prolonged period of tailwind for investors. We believe the things that made financial headlines in 2019 – Brexit and trade wars – to be less prominent in 2020. However, what if we’ve got it wrong? What if earnings and GDP growth stall earlier than we expect right now? What if the recession does hit us in 2020? We think the odds are that we will see a best-of-times scenario for at least one more year, but we also believe the impact of a worst-of-times scenario (please excuse us for paraphrasing the opening sentence of Charles Dickens’ A Tale of Two Cities, we are aware you have seen this phrase in investment outlooks many times before) would be so big, that it would be unwise to ignore it completely.

Robeco
By November 15, 2019 12:56

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