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Portfolio Manager Perspectives Mark Dowding’s Global Macro Update
Person of the Year 2020? Bolstered by election success, Conservatives dream of PM Boris being next year’s award winner. Global bond yields traded higher towards the end of this week as investors seized on constructive headlines pertaining to a China
Key findings from the Multi-Asset Solutions Strategy Summit
This year was dominated by trade tension, weak manufacturing and a sharp dovish shift in monetary policy. In 2020 we anticipate that headwinds from trade and manufacturing dissipate while policy will remain accommodative; and as a result we expect economic
What the heart already knew
Based on Markowitz’ Modern Portfolio Theory, Ortec Finance has analysed what effects Triodos Investment Management (Triodos IM) Private Impact Strategies have on the risk-return characteristics of a well-diversified investment portfolio. This research was done on request of Triodos IM. In
Election direction Monthly Investment Strategy
Summary of views Theme of the month: Election direction Macro update: Trade deal underpins global trade stabilisation Investment strategy: skinny risk premia suggest no more than mediocre returns in 2020
2020 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions
This paper by Invesco’s Investment Solutions team presents their work in developing forecasts for asset class returns, risk, and correlations which are of critical importance in translating portfolio theory into plausible real-world practical solutions for investors. Executive Summary: The Strategic
The modern apartment renter Understanding and appealing to the modern apartment renter in the U.S.
Demand for apartments has been robust following the bursting of the housing bubble a decade ago. Apartment investors devote a significant amount of time and resources to determine what unit features and community amenities are most desirable to current and
Our top investment calls for 2020
We have made meaningful changes to our tactical asset views heading into 2020, including a moderate tilt into cyclical assets. We see growth stabilizing and gradually picking up over the next six to 12 months, thanks in part to easy
Global Economic Outlook 2020
Geo-political risks like the trade war and Brexit dominated headlines and kept markets on edge for most of this year. However, last week’s events offered much-needed relief to investors. After two years of talks, the U.S. and China apparently reached
2020 outlook for the US 10-year Treasury bond
In 2019, 10-year US Treasury bonds traded in a range of 1.46-2.78%, the fourth-widest range since 2010. In 2020, we think the 10-year Treasury may trade in a similar range, with additional volatility arising from many of the same factors
When Beta is Expensive, Tactical Decisions Make a World of Difference
2020 Outlook Entering 2019, our view was that strength in U.S. consumption would sustain U.S. economic expansion. This investment thesis has largely played out (despite concerns about overleveraged corporations, weakening manufacturing, and the roller coaster ride of U.S.-China trade negotiations).
Global Strategy Q1 2020
Political uncertainty appears to be subsiding somewhat and a moderate economic recovery should take hold in 2020. Central banks will maintain the course they have adopted and keep an easy monetary policy in place. In this environment we prefer risk
Dutch-German growth gap will reverse
Germany sneezes, but no cold for the Netherlands ‘When Germany sneezes, the Netherlands catches a cold’ is an often heard phrase in the debate on the Dutch business cycle. Germany is the most important export partner of the Netherlands and
Building on 2019’s green bond resurgence
In almost whatever country you care to mention, climate change and social inequality are exploding into the public consciousness. Extinction Rebellion in the UK or the Gilets Jaune in Paris are just two of the more high-profile signs. Yet in
No One Has Won the Trade War…Yet
It is too early for either China or the United States to claim victory following the ‘Phase 1’ agreement announced last week. The ongoing 5G debate in Germany may hold the key for the US credibly to claim victory towards
Our 12-Month Economic & Market Outlook 2020
A new year begins and also a new decade that will bring fresh uncertainties and challenges. One thing that looks certain is that the pace of change will increase in technology, in the economy and perhaps in politics, too. We
Skating on thinner Ice
Macro and Market Views The year may well end as it started: on a strong note. 2019 will probably be remembered as a year when it was very costly to be O/W cash compared to anything else. After such an
A different view of Asia
Asian markets have become polarised over recent months with large-cap stocks driving market gains. As a small-cap investor, Fidelity Asian Values PLC’s Nitin Bajaj reviews a challenging period and outlines some of the unloved areas that he is backing to
Wat het hart al wist
Triodos IM impactfondsen voegen waarde toe aan uw portefeuille Het opnemen van impactfondsen van Triodos Investment Management in een goed gespreide beleggingsportefeuille voegt voor verschillende soorten beleggers waarde toe voor wat betreft risico en rendement. Dit is de belangrijkste conclusie
Negative Rates: Negative View
Why are negative nominal interest rates so troubling? Economic theory favors real rates, which have already been negative in most developed countries for some time. In theory, lowering the nominal policy rate into negative territory should produce many of the
A tale of two decades: the ECB’s monetary policy at 20
The 20th anniversary of Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) offers an opportunity to look back on the ECB’s record and learn lessons that can improve the conduct of policy in the future. This paper charts the way the ECB has
A holiday reading list from the BlackRock Investment Institute
‘Tis the season for holiday reading. Jean shares our top picks to take you through the new year. ‘Tis the season for holiday reading – and for our annual December list of book recommendations to add to your holiday gift
The most recent US tightening cycle was more aggressive than it appears
The latest US tightening cycle was more aggressive than most investors realise. Should avoiding recession be seen as a win? How aggressive was the Federal Reserve’s most recent hiking cycle? Take the end rate minus the beginning rate, and the
Asia Real Estate Market Outlook
Executive summary Real estate returns expected to remain resilient amid more accommodative macro policies and balanced supply and demand Yields for commercial real estate expected to remain low as relatively higher return profile for the sector continues to attract strong
The role of inflation-linked bonds in a disinflationary EM environment
The protection against inflation is a key goal for many investors, especially for those whose liabilities fluctuate with the inflation rate. This has traditionally been particularly important within emerging market (EM) countries as inflation tends to be higher than developed
Sovereign Debt & Negative Yields
Recession alarms have yet to fully go off, but stagnation warning signs are coming to the forefront on the back of heightened financial instrument risks, potentially affecting the economic health of advanced and emerging markets alike. The many intertwined moving
CIO 2020 Outlook: Year of Change
In this outlook, teams from across LGIM examine the opportunities and risks with which investors are presented in this context. Here are some of our conclusions: Global growth may ultimately disappoint investors even as recession fears abate The many ways
Emerging Markets Corporate Bonds: The Active Opportunity
At a time when passive investing continues to gain market share, emerging market (EM) corporate bonds are an asset class that remains inefficient and under-researched enough to reward active security selection, potentially allowing active managers to add value consistently over
Closing strong u.s. Economic & interest rate outlook
The year 2019 has given us plenty of fodder for commentary. The Federal Reserve changed its outlook materially, recession worries rose, and the trade war carried on. All the while, the economy has continued to perform admirably, with steady growth,
The “Trucost” of Climate Investing
The “Trucost” of Climate Investing: Managing Climate Risks in Equity Portfolios Sustainable investing1 is a significant consideration for an ever-growing class of investors. Forty-two percent of investors surveyed in North America (Schroders Global Investor Study, 2017) cited performance as a
FOMC signals unchanged rates
As expected, the FOMC, the Federal Reserve's (FOMC's) interest rate decision-making body, left the range for the key interest rate unchanged at 1.5-1.75% at the meeting that ended yesterday. The current monetary policy was described as appropriate to support continued
Christine Lagarde prepares markets for Strategy Review
As expected, the Governing Council did not make any changes at today's meeting. Interest rates and guidance for monetary policy were confirmed. The duration of the low-interest phase and of the purchases of securities was left open. A first interest
Emerging opportunities
Emerging market debt has done well in 2019. Fundamentals for 2020 look reasonable and we see some opportunities, but risks persist, meaning a selective approach appears warranted.
Energy Monitor: OPEC fails to convince
Last week, the OPEC has decided, together with her partners (combined OPEC+), to increase its production cut agreement. The existing agreement to lower crude production by 1.2 million barrels per day (mb/d) was raised with another 503 kb/d to a
In 2020, the critical number to know is 1.8
Rick Rieder and Russ Brownback argue that contrary to the many year-end outlooks foreseeing either a recession or a rebound in 2020, the most likely path for the economy and markets is more moderate, which can be encapsulated in their
Elections clear way for Brexit
The risks of a hard break as of January 31 were already low, but are now off the table. For the markets, this should mean a little more confidence in an – albeit slow – recovery of the Eurozone economy.
UK general elections
Yesterday’s results imply Mr. Johnson will ‘get Brexit done’. However, his plan to get a trade agreement done by the end of 2020 is likely to hit some snags. Indeed, the hard work begins now, and even a bare-bones agreement
Themes and implications from the Multi-Asset Solutions Strategy Summit 1Q 2020
This year was dominated by trade tension, weak manufacturing and a sharp dovish shift in monetary policy. In 2020, we anticipate that headwinds from trade and manufacturing dissipate while policy will remain accommodative; and as a result, we expect economic
Lagarde, Johnson, Trump
ECB president Christine Lagarde was comfortable in her new role. Nobody had expected a change in the ECB’s monetary policy, but everybody was interested to see how she would handle the press conference following her first meeting in charge of
Fixed income: Back to core – Charts and Views
Build a robust ‘core’ and diversify income sources The ongoing slowdown in global trade will weaken global GDP growth further in 2020 – especially in advanced economies skewed towards the manufacturing sector – but a full-blown recession is unlikely, in
Johnson wins UK General Election – Brexit and the cost of election promises
The Conservative Party under Boris Johnson secured a much bigger win in the election than polls had suggested. At the time of writing (1 seat outstanding), the Conservative looked on track to secure 365 seats and a majority of 80. This
It is getting (a bit) clearer
Global macro risks receding. As 2019 is drawing to a close, the major global macro risks are receding. The US will not implement the round of tariff hikes on Chinese products scheduled for 15 December while the UK elections have
The people have spoken, so what next for UK markets?
The near-term impact of the election result has been positive for markets, but what are the longer-term implications for the UK as a destination of global capital? Fidelity Global Special Situations Fund Manager Jeremy Podger gives his view on the
Market outlook 2020: Global convertible bonds
Convertible bond valuations and fundamentals remain attractive overall, making the asset class well prepared for a potentially trickier year ahead. As we close out a fruitful year for financial markets, it’s fair to say that 2020 will not start with
What the US-China trade deal means for global growth
At rst glance, the "phase one" US-China trade deal looks to slightly exceed our expectations, suggesting modest upside to our economic growth forecasts. China and the US have agreed to a “phase one” trade deal, bringing a ceasefire at least
Stronger construction activity and a pick-up in external demand
External demand showed early signs of recovery; domestic construction activity growth came in stronger than expected. Nov MTD IPP coal consumption growth remained high at 15.8% YoY despite a warmer Nov this year. Capacity utilization rates of steel, coal and
Brexit a go after clear Conservative win
The ruling UK Conservative Party won a large outright majority in Thursday’s election, giving Prime Minister Boris Johnson a stable government and mandate to deliver Brexit in January. The pound and domestic-focused UK equities should benefit from greater political certainty
Selected geographical issues in the global listed equity market
Executive summary This report summarizes the findings of research MSCI performed as part of the mandate defined by the Ministry of Finance of Norway, as described in the Appendix. Global markets have become increasingly interconnected over time due to more
Getting Comfortable with the Uncomfortable
Asset Allocation Insights Emerging Market Stocks: Getting Comfortable with the Uncomfortable Owning emerging market stocks has been a frustrating experience recently. Since the start of 2018, the MSCI Emerging Markets index has fallen 9.5% in USD terms (3.1% local)1 while
Global Investment Committee Weekly
Rose-Colored Glasses. The disconnect between the economic data and what is discounted in the S&P 500 continues to grow. The stabilization we saw in September has been followed by a slew of disappointments in the October and November data. While
