When political risk crosses the Atlantic

Amundi
Door december 10, 2019 12:54

When political risk crosses the Atlantic

Global investment views

At the beginning of 2019, all eyes were focused on Europe, not only because of the risk of a Hard Brexit, but also because of the open crisis between the Italian government and the European Commission. The situation has changed radically since this summer.

On the UK side, whatever the outcome of the elections (12 December), it seems clear that a Hard Brexit is no longer on the agenda. If the Tories win, they will vote for the plan negotiated by Boris Johnson. And if the Labour Party wins, Jeremy Corbyn will probably try to challenge Brexit through a referendum. Ultimately, the British economy is moving towards a long transition period; once the plan is accepted, negotiations with the EU will begin. These negotiations will likely prove long and difficult, but the systemic risk of leaping into the unknown is no longer a danger. In Italy, the change of coalition during the summer completely changed the approach in terms of economic policy, with a more European orientation than in the past. This does not change the mediumterm fragility of Italy from a macrofinancial standpoint (high public debt, very low potential growth), but the new government coalition was very well received by investors. The fall in interest rates gives a breath of fresh air to the country and the financial system as a whole.

 

 

Amundi
Door december 10, 2019 12:54

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Twitter

The fight for the Democratic nomination moves into the next round. -> https://www.opiniopro.com/2020/02/fn/the-fight-for-the-democratic-nomination-moves-into-the-next-round/ #elections #usa #Trump #Republican #Democrats via @DWS_Group

Slowing but going -> https://www.opiniopro.com/2020/02/fidelity/slowing-but-going/ #AssetAllocation #Equities #FixedIncome #RealEstate via @Fidelity

The prospects for economies and markets in 2020. -> https://www.opiniopro.com/2020/02/bmo/the-prospects-for-economies-and-markets-in-2020/ #brexit #centralbank #china #Fed #manufacturing #oil #recession via #BMO

Navigating a Sentiment Crash -> https://www.opiniopro.com/2020/02/qma/navigating-a-sentiment-crash/ #crash #Equities #growth #sentiment #value via @pgim

Are you taking enough risk? How do you know? -> https://www.opiniopro.com/2020/02/invesco/are-you-taking-enough-risk-how-do-you-know/ #china #Equities #factor #FixedIncome #riskpremium via @InvescoEMEA

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