Solid Tone to Risk Assets into Year End

By December 13, 2019 07:51

Solid Tone to Risk Assets into Year End

  • We believe global growth will remain moderate in 2020 (coming in around 3.25% for the year, essentially maintaining the current rate of annualized growth in 2019), thereby mitigating the imbalances and vulnerabilities (e.g., increasing inflation, sharp increases in commodity prices) that tend to mark the end of an economic cycle. As a result, we believe the global economy could provide a favorable backdrop for financial markets next year.
  • However, our outlook hinges on two expectations. First, that global inflation remains well contained as tight labor markets and solid wage growth refrain from pushing product prices higher. While inflation could rise next year, the risks of a sharp, non-linear increase appear limited. Second, although we see the U.S/China trade war as the key risk for the global economy in 2020, we believe both sides will ultimately reach some form of an agreement.
  • Although a trade deal is not contingent on rolling back existing tariffs, a deal should commit to refraining from further tariff hikes (reports Tuesday indicated that the December 15 increases could be delayed). While the tariffs act as a drag on spending and growth, the lingering uncertainty is the more adverse factor as it restrains business sentiment and investment. Accordingly, even a “skinny deal” could have broadly positive implications.
By December 13, 2019 07:51


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December 2019