It is likely that the composition of tomorrows stock market indices will look very different than they do today. In the years to come, there’ll be less demand for fossil fuels, continued demographic change and ever more scrutiny of environmental, social and
There may be more risk to the markets in the next few months than is currently priced in… Yet the policy implications of a win on either side are even more dramatic than they have been in previous years. to
We expect the virus to leave a clear mark on China's economy and stock market in the first quarter. Beyond that, we can only speculate at this stage. Despite the interim recovery, financial markets are likely to be burdened by
The impact for CEE economies stemming from China and World GDP slowdown (if any) should remain limited if the virus is contained within a short period of time. CEE, as a net commodity importer, could benefit from lower commodity prices.
Short Note US Fed As expected, the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision-making body (FOMC) has left the key interest rate unchanged at 1.5-1.75%. The current monetary policy is appropriate to support continued economic expansion, a strong labor market and inflation
Asset Allocation update What a difference a year makes. After a bruising 2018, last year allowed investors to capture the second-best return on a blend of global equities and long-dated bonds in 30 years. For stocks it was also a year of
Coronavirus is spreading across China and beyond. What impact will the epidemic have on the global economy and financial markets? The outbreak of the coronavirus threatens to deal a blow to the global economy, presenting risks to consumption and tourism, and, above
Elga Bartsch, PhD, Head of Macro Research at the BlackRock Investment Institute, shares the biggest challenge of her career, why she practices yoga in her spare time, and more in the latest installment in our ongoing series of Q&As. We
Mike shares our view on the U.S. dollar, and how it supports our preference for emerging market assets. Two broad forces drive the U.S. dollar’s moves: monetary policy differentials and risk appetite. We see the U.S. dollar stabilizing or somewhat
The relationship between China and the West has changed radically China faces many challenges and may not overtake the US by 2030 Finding expert managers is key for investors to make the right choices
Voya Multi-Asset Perspectives The U.S. economy continues to do well: 3Q19 real GDP grew at 2.1% and the Atlanta Federal Reserve GDPNow is forecasting 2.3% 4Q19 growth. This would mark another above-trend quarter and three consecutive above-trend years. Consumers continue
Fixed Income Perspectives Entering the first half of 2020, our portfolios are positioned to reflect six key themes. Political Uncertainty: Slower global growth has exacerbated ongoing tensions arising from the increasingly unequal distributions of income and wealth, fueled in part by global trade
Leveraged Finance Asset Allocation Insights Spreads on high yield bonds, bank loans, and CLO debt tranches continued to tighten throughout the first few weeks of January amid a backdrop of consistently positive macroeconomic data, a signed Phase One US-China trade agreement,
2020 China’s conventional real estate wisdom has served the country well in the past, helping to propel China to global prominence, but it now seems to have run its course. As the domestic market matures, the global economy slows and
Emerging thoughts Emerging markets (EM) form a wide and diverse investment universe. They play an extremely important part in the global economy but remain relatively underrepresented in financial markets. Investing in EM requires understanding certain biases. For example, China represents 34% of the EM
Global ETPs collected $206.7bn making it the best quarter in 2019 driven by flows in Fixed Income and U.S. Equity Global ETPs collected $206.7bn in the fourth quarter bringing year-to-date flows to $559.0bn for 2019. Quarterly flows were led by Fixed Income
QMA’s Global Multi-Asset Solutions Group Global growth in 2019 was the weakest in a decade, weighed down by an escalation of the US-China trade war, which hit manufacturing and export sectors hard. Consumer sectors, propped up by strong labor markets
Eurozone This paper explores the investment impact of the large and persistent home bias in the equity allocations of the five largest European pension fund markets since the global financial crisis. For this study, we examined the characteristics, performance and
Cycling slowly, relatively attractive, changing with the future. We enter 2020 with a base case of moderate economic growth but a watchful eye on geopolitical risk. Absent any major shocks, we believe three key themes will drive the industry narrative
Macro view Economic growth provides a sound backdrop for positive real estate demand but is no longer accelerating. Low interest rates indicate that spreads remain attractive relative to recent years. Economy Before considering the economic forecast for 2020, recalling the
Global economic growth should pick up a notch Stock prices sank on a holiday-shortened week, despite some continued decent news on the economic and corporate earnings fronts. Anxiety about the growing coronavirus scare appears to have hurt markets, and investors
China’s place in the world The world economy now revolves around China. And that’s something we will all have to get used to. But it might not be such a challenging transition; for some years now, China has contributed the
Five wildcards for fixed income in 2020 For 2020, the general direction of investment returns will likely come down to a few “wild cards” on five key issues. We look at how the outcome of these issues could upend the
Economy and markets Global equities had a strong final quarter of the year, with the MSCI World Index advancing 8.3% in dollar terms. The announcement of a ‘Phase One’ trade deal between the US and China and a reduction in
The general public, especially in Asia, is understandably anxious about the latest coronavirus outbreak that originated in Wuhan, China. It is also important to consider some of the investment implications from this incident. This is an example of how investment
Market Review and 1st Quarter 2020 Outlook Market Backdrop Global equities markets advanced solidly in 2019’s final quarter. The S&P 500, MSCI All Country World Index, and MSCI ACWI ex-US all gained nearly 9%, while Emerging Markets climbed 11.8%. Information
China’s remarkable transformation The past twenty five years have been transformational for China. The country has shifted from operating as the ‘world’s factory’, to being a key driver of global growth and a significant geo–political influence. Transition has not been
U.S. dollar underpins EM assets We see the U.S. dollar stabilizing or weakening in 2020 after a long run–up, supporting our preference for emerging market (EM) assets. We see global growth stabilizing and gradually edging up over the next six
Give me income….any income. Macro/government bondsConcernsaboutthe spread of a deadly coronavirus from China has amplified market risk aversion in the last couple of weeks. Notably, Asian markets are weaker as is the price of oil. This has provided support for
2019 market review and analysis In the market for corporate Schuldscheindarlehen, 2019 was one of the stronger years in terms of issuance, but failed – according to our calculations – to reach the record levels of 2016 and 2017: Around
Value investing has been a topic of conversation recently as investors have been on watch for the long-struggling factor to reverse its misfortune. Value has underperformed growth for so long that it is comparatively cheap. But that doesn’t automatically make
– We provide a representative sampling of the overall 2020 electoral outcomes you may currently want to consider when making investment decisions. – Most likely, the outcome may be in what we call the Mushy Middle (epitomized by various combinations
Global Outlook Looking back over the calendar year 2019, the optimal asset allocation for an investor would have comprised an overweight position in both global equities, especially the US, and global government bonds, especially European. These positions would be financed
Q1 Outlook Since our last quarterly note, where we focused on the threats to the world economy, political and international events have meant that the global economic backdrop has become somewhat more positive and market positioning is less stretched than
Growing fears around the threat of man-made climate change combined with the increasing attractiveness of renewable energy have led to a paradigm shift that is driving a steady transition towards renewables.
Contents Section 1 – briefly reviews performance in 2019, which can be characterised as a tale of two halves with a happy ending. Section 2 – presents 1-year and 5-year return scenarios for sovereign government bonds, local currency government bonds as well
2020 Global Outlook Growth should edge higher in 2020, limiting recession risks. This is a favorable backdrop for risk assets. But the dovish central bank pivot that drove markets in 2019 is largely behind us. Inflation risks look underappreciated, and
Markets stuck close to all-time highs despite a resurgence in risk-off sentiment. This was prompted by: First, sanitary concerns after confirmation that China's coronavirus could be spread between humans. The situation might seem to echo the period in 2003 when the
Russ discusses the catalysts favoring Emerging Markets, beginning with the Federal Reserve. Starting in late August two things happened that had not occurred in several years: The Federal Reserve started expanding its balance sheet and emerging markets began outperforming. The
Update Strategie China is de grootste markt van Azië. De overheid wil de groei duurzamer en breder – gericht op consumptie en diensten –maken, waardoor de groei vertraagde. Daarbo- venop kwam de escalatie van de handelsoorlog met de VS,
Market Insights In 2019, the U.S. stock market continued its streak of outperforming, rising by more than 31% versus 21% for the rest of the world, as measured by the S&P 500 Index and the MSCI All Country World ex-US Index
Points of View Equities – 2020 earnings growth estimates have held steady so far between 9–11%. This is more in line with our “Turning the Corner” scenario where economic growth improves in 2020. Risk sentiment as measured by implied volatility remains at subdued levels largely driven by global central
The reemergence of global macro strategies in an unsettled world The great recession is a distant memory. The world’s major economies have long since rebounded, companies have flourished amid a supportive policy backdrop, and asset prices have more than recovered.
On the risk of regime shifts The macro debate tends to center on the state of the business cycle and the risk of a recession. We think that this is a too narrow question to ask. We consider a broad
Italy –further increased political uncertainty This week, Luigi Di Maio resigned as head of the Five Star Movement. However, he remains a member of the government in his capacity as foreign minister. As senior partner of the Italian government, the
Rick Rieder, Russ Brownback and Trevor Slaven contend that eight major market influences are likely to dominate the investment environment in the year ahead and that the proper portfolio mix will be instrumental in delivering a successful outcome. In our
Active is:Generating capital income with dividends. Bond yields are currently deep in the red. Almost 25 % of all outstanding bonds world-wide carry a negative nominal yield. In Germany, yields are below zero for roughly 90 % of outstanding
Global Equity Ratings Preferred Sectors: Health Care, Technology and Consumer
Davos brief The global economic expansion is stretching, but powerful structural trends are testing limits — and intersecting with the near-term outlook. The trends include rising inequality and social unrest; deglobalization and fragmentation into trade blocs; an intensifying focus
Global Perspectives January 2020 After such fantastic returns from equities and bonds in 2019 and a 10-year bull market, it makes sense to ask: should we take those chips off the table, de-risk and bank the profits? To answer this
