Outlook & Convictions

Edmond de Rothschild
By January 13, 2020 13:44

Outlook & Convictions

Even without an increase in tension with Iran, global growth this year should slow further due to the US presidential campaign, higher customs tariffs remaining in place and Chinese abnegation.

THE TRADE WAR SHOULD CONTINUE TO AFFECT GLOBAL GROWTH

The US and China have signed a phase 1 deal. It will lead to the 15% hike on $160bn in Chinese exports being cancelled and the 15% surtax on $112bn on Chinese goods; effective since September 1st 2019, being halved, but it will probably not be enough to restore visibility on future trade developments. First, 69% of US imports from China and 58% of US exports to China will still be subject to increased levies. Second, US-China tensions are structural. The essence of the trade talk agenda goes against President Xi Jinping’s programme. T

Edmond de Rothschild
By January 13, 2020 13:44

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