Poland to have complete set of 4Q19 data

Erste Group
Door januari 21, 2020 10:26

Poland to have complete set of 4Q19 data

This week in CEE

The CEE calendar is pretty empty of macro releases apart from Poland. There, we begin with data on the labor market, in particular employment and wage growth in December. Labor market conditions have been tight and not much should change. More important data releases are due on Wednesday and Thursday, however, when industrial output and retail sales growth will be published. We will find out the performance of the economy for the whole last quarter. As we expect pretty decent performance from both industry and retail sales, our Now Cast model currently suggests 3.8% y/y growth dynamics in 4Q19 and 4.2% for the whole of 2019 (FY19 GDP is due the following week). On Thursday, the MPC minutes from the last central bank meeting will also be published. We do not, however, expect to learn anything new. We believe that the Polish MPC will hold through the first quarter
inflation increase and sustain the stability of rates rhetoric (inflation to ease, economic slowdown).

 

Erste Group
Door januari 21, 2020 10:26

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