Do highly indebted large corporations pose a systemic risk?

Do highly indebted large corporations pose a systemic risk?

🕔07:35, 22.Jan 2020

At the end of 2018, “at-risk” firms in France were estimated to have total gross debts of EUR 187 billion. A 100 basis-point rise in their cost of financing could push this amount up by 60%, potentially posing a risk

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In the Year of the Rat, think even longer term

In the Year of the Rat, think even longer term

🕔06:28, 22.Jan 2020

Active is: Sharing insights This Chinese New Year, more than a billion people globally will celebrate the Year of the Rat. We believe investors everywhere can also find reason to celebrate China as a source of continued economic growth. Even if US-China

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Central Banks on hold in 2020

Central Banks on hold in 2020

🕔15:48, 21.Jan 2020

Central Bank Monitor​ As of October 30, 2019, the Fed lowered its key rate for the third time in the year. The Fed signaled that it plans no further cuts unless it sees a “material deterioration” in the economic outlook.

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Stabilization amid heightened uncertainties

Stabilization amid heightened uncertainties

🕔14:45, 21.Jan 2020

Allocation views – Perspective from Franklin Templeton Multi Asset Solutions The new year started with a bout of volatility, driven by tensions in the Middle East. US forces assassinated General Qassem Soleimani, leader of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps, which grabbed headlines and

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Global economy to take a breather in 2020

Global economy to take a breather in 2020

🕔13:40, 21.Jan 2020

Interest Rate Outlook Eurozone, USA We enter 2020 with optimism. The political upheavals that defined 2019 should diminish. Although none of the issues have been resolved, they should exert no pressure on the markets for the better part of the

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The Aristotle List: 10 improbable but possible outcomes for 2020

The Aristotle List: 10 improbable but possible outcomes for 2020

🕔12:39, 21.Jan 2020

Uncommon truths It is time to forget central scenarios and think about improbable but possible outcomes. Despite current geopolitical tensions, our surprises display a sense of hope (these hypothetical predictions are our views of what may happen even if they

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Flexibility does not come for free

Flexibility does not come for free

🕔11:30, 21.Jan 2020

Insight An EU-UK free trade agreement will result in new barriers to trade and border friction even if the UK chooses to unilaterally align itself with EU rules and regulations. Prime Minister Boris Johnson has said that the UK will “not

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Poland to have complete set of 4Q19 data

Poland to have complete set of 4Q19 data

🕔10:26, 21.Jan 2020

This week in CEE The CEE calendar is pretty empty of macro releases apart from Poland. There, we begin with data on the labor market, in particular employment and wage growth in December. Labor market conditions have been tight and not much

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Low Economic Volatility May Continue Supporting Credit

Low Economic Volatility May Continue Supporting Credit

🕔07:56, 21.Jan 2020

Weekly view from the desk Although some regarded last week’s U.S. non-farm payroll report as disappointing, we regarded it as a solid indicator of what the U.S. economy needs to maintain its trend-like growth. Last year’s monthly payroll average of

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Yearly Performance Review 2019

Yearly Performance Review 2019

🕔06:55, 21.Jan 2020

In 2019, RPM portfolios again delivered mixed results in a difficult market environment with little exploitable time series momentum (TSMOM) outside of fixed income markets. After an initial sell-off, the year was characterized by a major bond rally on the

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Prospects for Global Potential Growth: The Next Decade

Prospects for Global Potential Growth: The Next Decade

🕔17:17, 20.Jan 2020

The pace of global growth has slowed significantly during the past two years. After peaking at over 4% in 2017, it has softened to just above 3% at present, well below its two-decade average of nearly 3.7%.1 A number of

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Why invest in European ABS?

Why invest in European ABS?

🕔17:11, 20.Jan 2020

FocusPoint In the current low-yield environment, European fixed income investors need to look to alternative asset categories to increase the yield of their portfolios. Given the current stage of the credit cycle, though, they generally have no desire to increase

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Long-Term Outlook. 12 Key Assets for 2020 and Beyond.

Long-Term Outlook. 12 Key Assets for 2020 and Beyond.

🕔17:02, 20.Jan 2020

Morningstar Investment Management Insights Welcome to the new year. As many readers will know, we tend to assign our yearly outlooks over a 10-year plus horizon, not one. That said, we do believe we have a role to play in

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The ECB, The FED, Rates, Yields and Currencies

The ECB, The FED, Rates, Yields and Currencies

🕔17:00, 20.Jan 2020

CIO View, Chart of the Week As much as central banks drive bond markets, as little they drive currencies. At least in the short term. But in 2020 they are likely to drive little anyways. Even though central banks were

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8 Keys to understand SRI

8 Keys to understand SRI

🕔16:58, 20.Jan 2020

What are ESG criteria? ESG (Environmental, Social and Governance) criteria are non-financial analytical criteria used to evaluate how companies take sustainable development into account in relation to their operations and medium to long-term strategy. They are broken down into three

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The recessionary cloud is about to lift

The recessionary cloud is about to lift

🕔16:58, 20.Jan 2020

Take the lead – Global Insights 2020 The dominant theme as 2019 began – following three months of steep falls on world markets – was recession. But this threat was not obvious to us. Markets were pricing a downturn that

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Economic resilience, Fed and elections to drive US markets in 2020

Economic resilience, Fed and elections to drive US markets in 2020

🕔16:55, 20.Jan 2020

Investment Insights Blue Paper Fixed income: attractive yields in rangebound markets Following the three rate cuts agreed by the Fed last year, the bar for delivering further accommodation is high, and the central bank may be willing to allow some

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2020 outlook: on a wing and a prayer

2020 outlook: on a wing and a prayer

🕔16:54, 20.Jan 2020

The Big Picture 2019 has been a good year with strong returns on a broad range of assets. The global economy has decelerated but we hope policy easing will stabilise things during 2020 (the wing and a prayer). Our favoured

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Gloom doesn’t mean depression

Gloom doesn’t mean depression

🕔16:53, 20.Jan 2020

Macro-Economic Outlook for 2020 – Manufacturing activity has fallen to levels not seen since the global financial crisis; rising trade and geopolitical tensions raise downside risks to business activity – But domestic demand is holding up well – And discussions

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Vanguard’s global outlook for 2020

Vanguard’s global outlook for 2020

🕔16:43, 20.Jan 2020

Global economy: Trade tensions and broader uncertainty drag on demand and supply The continued slowdown in global growth foreseen a year ago has been accentuated during 2019 by a deterioration in the global industrial cycle. A broad escalation of policy

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2020 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions

2020 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions

🕔16:37, 20.Jan 2020

The Strategic Perspective. Looking out into the horizon, we believe the next decade will be vastly different. Extraordinary measures by central banks pulled us out of the Great Recession and encouraged investors to take on excess risk. Global asset prices

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2020 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions

2020 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions

🕔16:34, 20.Jan 2020

The Strategic Perspective. Looking out into the horizon, we believe the next decade will be vastly different. Extraordinary measures by central banks pulled us out of the Great Recession and encouraged investors to take on excess risk. Global asset prices

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A cyclical rotation

A cyclical rotation

🕔15:27, 20.Jan 2020

Weekly commentary – We favor a cautious tilt into cyclical assets, with expectations for a rebound in global trade and manufacturing activity. – We see global growth stabilizing and gradually picking up over the next six to 12 months, thanks

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New information on Strategy Review?

New information on Strategy Review?

🕔15:10, 20.Jan 2020

Week Ahead The ECB’s Governing Council will meet next week. Both the meeting and the following press conference by President Lagarde should be uneventful. In any case, monetary policy is not at issue. New indications regarding the course of the

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Growth to pick up…

Growth to pick up…

🕔14:01, 20.Jan 2020

Davos Brief The global economic expansion is stretching, but powerful structural trends are testing limits — and intersecting with the near-term outlook. The trends include rising inequality and social unrest; deglobalization and fragmentation into trade blocs; an intensifying focus on

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