Quarterly macro and market insights Our macro outlook for 2020 is modestly constructive. Recent clarity around certain geopolitical risks has been helpful. Specifically, progress in the initial phase of a US-China trade deal and a decisive result in the December
While they may not have been known by the same names, many modern investment factors have historical roots stretching back centuries. This series, The Factor Archives, provides historical context on the six factor themes underlying OSAM’s investment process. You can
Approximately 30%–40% of the variability in global individual equity securities can be explained by top-down country and industry memberships. Active management of global equity portfolios in the asset management industry, however, focuses almost exclusively on bottom-up security selection approaches, either
The term “spring fever” describes the contradictory emotions people have as the new season approaches: listlessness alongside energy, ennui next to excitement. It could also define the current mood in the markets: relief at the easing of trade frictions, expectations
De voorlopende indicatoren blijven op koers, maar de nieuwsberichten wegen mogelijk op de stemming onder beleggers. Tot de gemengde berichten behoren een sterke Amerikaanse aandelenmarkt maar dalende olieprijzen en rentes. Als vermogensbeheerders moeten we het hoofd koel houden. Om door
We discuss portfolio positioning for our outlook of economic momentum recovering in 2020, but with certain risks at elevated levels. The past decade marked a tremendous return environment for most asset classes. 2019, in particular, was a banner year for
Monthly Investment Strategy Covid-19 – a supply shock for now Twice in 10 days the Chinese authorities have changed the way new Covid-19 cases are counted in Hubei, which means that most of the “epidemic projection” exercises, which have been
Global Asset Allocation The coronavirus outbreak has become a worldwide health crisis, impacting lives across the globe. The uncertain extent of the outbreak has caused a sell-off in risk assets. Many have compared this health emergency with the Severe Acute
Risk assets have largely shrugged off recent headwinds on the back of robust macro and corporate dynamics in the U.S. The Q4-2019 earnings season delivered better than expected outcomes especially in the Technology sector. Meanwhile, labor market conditions remain buoyant
IN SHORT With COVID-19 cases falling in China, but rising elsewhere, the impact on growth could go beyond Q1. Markets are likely to continue to question how big an impact on global growth should be expected, and what is priced
Term-maturity bond ETFs are a convenient, flexible way to target time-specific goals, especially when rates are uncertain. Interest rates continue to hover at super-low levels, adding to uncertainty for bond investors. Among the worries: A turnaround in rates could lower
All investments involve risk, including the possible loss of capital. There is no guarantee that any particular asset allocation will meet your investment objectives. The findings shown herein are derived from statistical models. Reasonable people may disagree about the appropriate
Investors tend to see short-term volatility as the enemy. Volatility may lead many investors to move money out of the market and “sit on the sidelines” until things “calm down. ” Although this approach may appear to solve one problem,
The relative market calm of the last several weeks around the Coronavirus (COVID-19) has ended with a jump in reported cases outside of China. While newly reported cases in China are slowing, there has been a worrying increase in reported
Five reasons to tokenize Simpler, faster and cheaper capital raising Access to broader swath of potential investors More transparency for all parties to a transaction Instant settlement with finality and improved liquidity Potential elimination of unnecessary middlemen
De wereldwijde aandelenbeurzen hebben na 20 januari 2020 eerst een stapje terug gedaan, om vervolgens naar nieuwe all-time highs te stijgen. Inmiddels weten we meer over de corona- virusepidemie en zijn de koersen opnieuw gedaald. In deze vraag- en antwoordpublicatie
The region’s bonds stand out in a world of low and negative yields, but investors need to be picky. There was a time when negative yields were a rare and unlikely curiosity. No longer: in late 2019, as much as
IN BRIEF As the value factor is in the midst of one of its most severe drawdowns, we explain why we think it is cyclical, not structural. It matters greatly whether a value factor is constructed across or within sectors.
The expansion of the U.S. economy following the global financial crisis has been slower than those after previous post-war recessions. Since 2010, growth has averaged around 2.3%, compared with over 3.0% in previous expansions. But if the current business cycle
Fidelity Multi Asset – Core Allocations The economic impact of coronavirus is hard to predict while the situation remains fluid and opaque. However, the medical and monetary policy response from Chinese authorities is encouraging. If the spread has been successfully thwarted
Mike explains why we stand by our views on equity style factors despite the recent performance shakeup. The coronavirus outbreak has altered market dynamics since late January – including in the space of equity style factors. One example, Quality has
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Talking Points U.S. loan performance was steady this week amid volatility in other major markets stemming from talk of the potential economic impact of Covid-19. The S&P/LSTA Leveraged Loan Index gained 0.12% for the seven day period ended Feb. 20,
In Credit – 24 FEBRUARY 2020 Macro / government bonds Core bond yields continue to drift lower in a ‘bull flattening’ amid fears about the spread of the COVIC-19 coronavirus outside of China and most recently in Italy and Korea.
Highlights Municipal bonds notched strong gains during 2019, as favorable supply-and-demand dynamics supported the market. Falling interest rates helped boost municipal bond prices, which also benefited from demand for perceived safe-haven assets amid anxiety about softer US economic data. Investment
UBS House View, Monthly Letter Impeachment, Brexit, airstrikes, an epidemic, and yet the S&P 500 is at new highs. This is already a year for the history books, and we are just getting started. We began the year overweight in equities,
On the brink of irreversible climate change, a combination of ground- breaking datasets and index innovation is emerging, through which investors will have the choice to align their investments to a future climate scenario compatible with mitigating catastrophic global warming
Acknowledgments This report is a joint effort, involving KPMG International, CREATE-Research, AIMA and CAIA. It examines in detail sustainable investing and its impact on the alternative investment industry. Focusing on hedge funds and institutional investors, together with best practice from
Investors have become familiar with frequent headlines on the latest regulations being implemented by European banks to improve their fundamentals. Should a slowing of this newsflow arouse concern? We believe the answer is …
The search for certainty The beat goes on. Despite growing macroeconomic and political uncertainty across global markets, the private equity industry continues to make and sell investments, raise capital and generate relatively strong returns. Yet, the private markets also continue to throw
U.S. Treasury yields fell last week, led by longer maturities. This flight- to-quality rally was driven by fears that the coronavirus may cause a larger-than-expected drag on global economic growth. Market expectations for Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts in 2020
BII Global weekly commentary We still favor the quality factor for its resilience in late-cycle periods, despite its muted performance this year. We retain for now our moderate pro-risk stance over the next 6-12 months, with an eye on rising
The global sukuk market has enjoyed tremendous growth since 2013. As measured by the Dow Jones Sukuk Total Return Index and the S&P Global High Yield Sukuk Index, the U.S. dollar-denominated sukuk market experienced a compound annualized growth rate of
Introduction Findings from the LSI risk report help to identify risks and vulnerabilities affecting the euro area banking system, with a specific focus on issues related to small and medium-sized banks.4 These findings then feed through to the supervisory priorities
Climate change debate leads to boom in the primary market Climate change debate leads to boom in the primary market Climate change has increasingly become a focus of public and political attention in recent years. This is reflected in bond
Focus: Covid-19 epidemic, EZ inflation The Covid-19 epidemic has probably passed its peak in China. Chinese authorities have been reporting a decrease in new infections for days. The bond markets, at least, have not yet jumped on this good news.
This week in CEE This week, the Hungarian central bank meeting is likely to be a key event. After the surge in the January inflation rate toward 4.7% y/y, the central bank verbally intervened by saying it will do whatever
We started our Macrocast last week with the news that the Chinese authorities had changed the way new covid-19 cases are counted in Hubei, and we would need to start with the same point today, with a second tweak to
Our long-term stewardship priorities are those we consider most material to the financial returns we deliver and consistent with our commitment on sustainable investing. For each priority, we have defined medium-term themes on which to focus our engagement. Governance We
Tools and insights for ESG investing in fixed income Sustainable investing is going mainstream. Evidence is building that a focus on sustainability-related factors — ranging from carbon efficiency to quality of governance — can help investors build more resilient portfolios.
Insights ESG Growing fears around the threat of man-made climate change combined with the increasing attractiveness of renewable energy have led to a paradigm shift that is driving a steady transition towards renewables. Fossil fuels have been a mainstay of
Policy Contribution Concern is growing in the European Union that a rapprochement between Russia and China could have negative implications for the EU. We argue that energy relations between the EU and Russia and between China and Russia influence each
2020 Outlook 2020 will be another uncertain year. Brexit will rumble on, bringing further volatility and polarising the UK political dialogue; China and US relations will remain tense and concern markets, despite a possible partial trade deal being secured before
In our view, management teams serve their shareholders in two capacities: (1) Generate profits and (2) Efficiently allocate those profits for shareholders’ long‐term benefit. In an analysis of corporate allocation over several decades, we find that the most rewarding way
A survey and insights on the state of impact investing in the Nordics In the Nordic countries, focusing on sustainability and ESG integration has become an increasingly important element of investing and the region is known for its advanced approach
Portfolio Insights Portfolio protection is at the forefront of investors’ minds in the current late-cycle environment – and with good reason. Equity markets are near all-time highs, bond yields are at cyclical lows, and geopolitical risks are increasing. Investors are
Mind the Gap 2019 Our second global investor returns study found declining investor return gaps in most markets we studied. In addition, we found the best results in areas where investors are required to make a commitment to continued investment
Morning Briefing Since the middle of October, Real Clear Politics' Democratic presidential nomination betting average (see chart) for Elizabeth Warren has declined from over 50% to just 23%. Meanwhile, Joe Biden’s betting average increased from just below 20% to 25%
Investment Outlook Smart investors know that market returns are often independent of the economy. Although an economy with accelerating growth is generally good for stocks, an investor can realize positive returns in other environments. 2019 is a case in point.
Global Asset Allocation Strategy Will it continue? Q&A: Outlook 2020 – update We think the chances are good. Our main scenario is an economic stabilisation, which will underpin a decent earnings development. Valuation continues to be attractive relative to fixed
