#22 Since COVID-19 webinars are booming business, we see this in our calendar analytics as well. Every month the events page is a great hit. Coming month are some very interesting webinars again you don’t want to miss: On June
Real estate and sustainability in APAC With both events likely to witness widespread damage to public health, disruption to economic systems, and yet face solutions that can be guided by scientific evidence, parallels between the COVID-19 outbreak and the climate
BIS Bulletin Key takeaways For a two-week period in mid-March 2020, government bond markets experienced uncharacteristic turbulence, sometimes selling off sharply in risk-off episodes when they would normally attract safe haven flows. Evidence in the US Treasury market points to
Executive summary After a rough decade for commodities and commodity producers, we see resource companies trading at record low valuation levels relative to the broad equity market on some measures. Even if commodity prices were to stay flat, public resource
“All roads lead to gold.” Takeaways Monetary policy normalization has failed …
For corporate pension funds, increased exposure to long credit could help: Close the spread duration gap: European corporate pension funds are generally underweight spread duration versus their liabilities. In the current market environment, wider spreads offer an opportunity to invest
Market Commentary The first four months of 2020 have been exceptional for financial markets due to the spread of the coronavirus. Out of all asset classes, commodities were probably hit most severely due to the general collapse in global economic
In the wake of first-quarter reporting season, the consensus is probably still too optimistic At -12% for the S&P 500 in the US and -35% for the Stoxx 600 in Europe, firstquarter results were hit hard by the pandemic, even
Forex News US dollar, Japanese yen, Swiss franc The euro has recently gained some ground and for the first time since the end of March, it reached values above USD 1.10. Fundamentally, there is some justification for this move, as
BII Global weekly commentary The virus shock is accelerating and changing structural trends, leading us to shift our long-term return expectations and strategic views. The key to the policy response has shifted to ensuring successful execution and avoiding policy fatigue
The ESG Movement has Grown Even before COVID-19 exposed the importance of public health policies to investments, there were reasons to think about environmental, social responsibility and corporate governance (ESG) issues when making investment decisions. There were Australia’s wildfires, which
China has seemingly “flattened the curve.” The same cannot be said of the US.
New Business Realities and the Implications for Investors The coronavirus pandemic has led to humanitarian, societal, business and economic crises unprecedented in their global breadth and speed – leaving governments, healthcare systems, communities, companies and families overwhelmed. Over a third
Investing in science China has been much in the news recently as it handles the COVID-19 virus, and because of political and trade tensions with the West. We continue to believe China remains a growth opportunity for investors. Indeed, by
Treasury Market Dislocations This past month market volatility and risk premiums rose to levels not seen since the global financial crisis of 2008- 2009. Sparked by a global collapse in activity in response to the Coronavirus pandemic, the increase in
Insights on Global Equity The coronavirus pandemic has wreaked havoc across the global economy, and the technology sector has not been immune. Supply chains have come under pressure, and …
Sustainable ETFs During the Coronavirus period, the majority of ESG index portfolios delivered better relative returns compared to broad markets. It has emerged as a consistent pattern with ESG outperforming throughout market corrections in recent years. It underscores that companies
Market Flash The week start got off to a strong start thanks to two positive developments. Angela Merkel and Emmanuel Macron announced a plan to boost the European budget by €500bn to help countries and sectors which had been the
Our research into the ESG views of Boomer, Gen X and Millennial savers f someone had told me, late in 2018, that over the next two years we would see forest fires devastate Australian wildlife; witness sightings in the US
CEE Market Insights At the end of this week, CEE countries will start to release their detailed GDP data for 1Q20. Croatia and Slovenia will publish their 1Q growth rates for the first time. We expect that Croatia’s economy grew
CEE Forex News | CEE | FX After the first wave of the new coronavirus, FX markets in the region have calmed down. Things are far from being back to normal, however. Due to …
Research & Strategy Insights While the market is understandably more sensitive to the newsflow around a potential vaccine than to economic data, we still focus on the “background noise” which is likely to accompany the mechanical rebound …
Weekly Market Recap Stocks started last week strong, helped by news of encouraging early test results for a possible coronavirus vaccine. Moderna Therapeutics announced that its …
Volatility related to the COVID-19 outbreak and dramatic oil price decline in Q1 2020 precipitated a …
The week before the Memorial Day holiday began with two high profile appearances from Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell, starting off with an interview on CBS’ 60 Minutes and followed up with testimony on Tuesday before the Senate Banking,
US Economic Outlook As an economist one has to live with uncertainty. Perhaps, that is why many economists have fallen in love with statistics and mathematics, as they promise at least some clarity. And, depending …
In March, the ECB activated a “pandemic emergency purchasing program” (PEPP) for a an additional €750bn. In total, the ECB have approximately …
Investment Talks The global background and Italy: if we wanted to characterise the contraction and recovery pattern, we would probably describe it as a ‘long U-shaped’ recovery; in other words, as a gradual normalisation which will take some time before
Americas CIO View The severe economic damage of widespread non-essential activity lockdowns to U.S. and European economies is moving behind, but we expect a slow recovery with elevated …
Investment Strategy Commentary There has been increasing focus on whether the U.S. stock market is too “top heavy,” with an over-reliance on the top technology stocks. We think business fundamentals should …
FX Watch Dit jaar tot nu toe zijn de valuta's van de opkomende markten verzwakt. De risicoaversie als gevolg van de impact van COVID-19 heeft geleid tot een sterke kapitaaluitstroom uit veel opkomende markten. Hierdoor verzwakten de munten. Van alle …
#21 A variety of publications in this week’s Top Five, please see below the best read publications: On the fifth place, Blackrock‘s Weekly Commentary “Europe bond outlook under review“: Including their weekly chart: Neuberger Berman‘s “Asset Allocation Committee Outlook 2Q20”
Market Commentary This is not the first time that Carmen Reinhart has cried wolf. As recently as May 2018, she argued in a Bloomberg interview that rising US inflation and US rate hikes would sink EM, because “more than two-thirds
As outlined in our previous “Thematics Insights”, we think it makes sense to dive a little deeper into the economics of a subscription and its real value. We have already identified several reasons why both consumers and businesses are subscribing
Market Commentary As of 27 April 2020, eighteen times more people have died from coronavirus per million of population in developed countries (DMs) than in Emerging Markets (EM). This is partly due to measurement problems, but there may also be
Fixed Income Perspectives The trajectory of global growth turned downward as governments scrambled to deal with the social and economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. The …
The primary goal of rebalancing is to minimize risk relative to strategic asset allocation targets, which are deliberately set to match an organization’s return, risk, and liability or spending profile. In short, rebalancing avoids overexposure to outperforming asset classes and
In our latest analysis released at the beginning of the year, we had laid out our medium-term outlook as a correction of the business cycle, including an economic slowdown, yield curve inversion, a return to lower bound policy rates, and
After weeks in lockdown, many major economies are easing restrictions to reboot economic activity. Unfortunately, they are faced with a difficult tradeoff between lives and livelihoods. A slow reopening will limit a renewed viral outbreak, but will also prolong the
Forecasts key indicators
Mixfondsen bieden de aantrekkelijke combinatie van een goed rendement bij een gespreider risico. Ze zijn geschikt voor beleggers die meer grip op het risico wensen, voor particulieren die voor hun pensioen beleggen maar ook voor beginners op de beurs. Mixfondsen
The good-news stories and optimism of three months ago have been consigned to the bin, as the virus, lockdowns and economic bailouts take centre stage The emergence of Covid-19 has destabilised stock markets the world over. Since China alerted the
Two major drivers are shaping the landscape for EM countries: Covid-19 and oil dynamics. We are mindful that current events will have very significant negative effects on the economic outlook for EM this year, leading many countries into recession. However,
Trying to put a price on the stock market in the current environment is extremely challenging. The velocity of the market decline and subsequent recovery are unparalleled, with day‑to‑day price swings that can look more like returns for a full
Hold the course As the world adjusts to life with the specter of COVID-19, it is increasingly clear that much has changed. We have become used to social distancing and unimaginably weak economic data. However, although we have become familiar
The GDP data of the EU countries for 1Q developed very differently. Interestingly, there is no clear correlation between the duration of the quarantine measures taken and the economic damage caused. It is noticeable that countries such as Austria, Germany,
As larger economies move from peak lockdown to gradual re-opening, each region exhibits its own risks to the broader recovery. The US appears to be gambling on a trade-off between easing restrictions relatively early and the chances of a second
A very specific characteristic of the current recession is that, at least in advanced economies, income – massively protected by fiscal policy – is falling much less than consumption. This is generating a very significant saving overhang. This is reflected
Almost no pandemic impact on Q1 dividends, which rose 3.6% to a Q1 record of $275.4bn Underlying growth was 4.3%, in line with our forecast • Canada and US broke all-time quarterly records Q1 seasonally skewed to North America, so
We believe the shape of a global recovery will largely depend on two non-economic factors—the future trajectory of the virus and the psychology of consumers in terms of when they might feel safe to resume near-normal activity. We place a
