Economies begin to emerge

AXA
By May 21, 2020 11:06

Economies begin to emerge

A very specific characteristic of the current recession is that, at least in advanced economies, income – massively protected by fiscal policy – is falling much less than consumption. This is generating a very significant saving overhang. This is reflected in the Euro area by the record rise in households’ bank deposits in March (EUR75bn). The quality of the post-lockdown recovery will depend to a large extent on the speed at which this “forced saving” is spent. It is tempting to look at China, which exited from lockdown much earlier than the Western countries, for guidance. There, it seems consumer spending has been quite subdued so far. But China is an exception among the key economies, since income fell quite significantly during the lockdown phase as Beijing refrained from the kind of all out fiscal packages seen in the West. 

AXA
By May 21, 2020 11:06

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