US presidential election preview: You’re fired?

AXA
By July 29, 2020 12:57

US presidential election preview: You’re fired?

Outlook for the 2020 vote, and the potential economic and market consequences

  •  Presidential and Congressional Elections are less than 100 days away. However, if the elections were held tomorrow, polls suggest Democrat nominee Joe Biden would win and the Democrats could take both the House and the Senate.
  • President Trump may recover from low ratings over the remaining months if the virus abates and the economy recovers. This would still be an uphill struggle to save the Presidency but could see Republicans retain a Senate majority.
  • Biden proposes the most progressive programme in nearly half a century. The degree of control over Congress will determine the extent to which his proposals can pass.
  • Biden’s spending plans should deliver more of a shortterm boost to the economy, although we expect meaningful fiscal support whatever the makeup of the next government. Biden’s program looks likely to be more positive for US long-term growth prospects as well.
  • Market reaction to a Biden election looks likely to be cautious and could add to short-term economic headwinds 
AXA
By July 29, 2020 12:57

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🇺🇸S&P 500 Total Return Attribution

Multiple expansion explains the S&P 500's total return YTD, despite negative earnings growth 👉 https://www.isabelnet.com/?s=return

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🇺🇸 S&P 500

Do valuations still matter? This chart puts into perspective the wide divergence between the S&P 500 and the US economy 👉 https://www.isabelnet.com/?s=S%26P+500

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