As long as Central Bank Music Plays

By July 29, 2020 11:08

As long as Central Bank Music Plays

Virus containment is progressing unevenly, advanced in Europe and Asia, but concerning in the U.S. and Latin America. Meanwhile, lockdown easing and economic reopening is accelerating worldwide. With a full global economic recovery priced-in for 2021 and stimulus reflected in richening asset valuations, there is little room for disappointments. Yet, record policy support is absorbing a large share of the shock and is flooding markets with liquidity, thus providing a backstop to asset prices. Furthermore, authorities would not relapse in large-scale shutdowns. Risks look balanced in mainstream assetswhich calls for a neutral stance. We see more relative opportunities. Uneven responses to the pandemic and diverging monetary and fiscal stimulus would continue to lead to diverging economic and market performances in Q3 2020. Additionally, as we move past the pandemic peak, other risks are resurfacing with rising trade tensions, U.S. elections and Brexit, requiring tactical and pragmatic positioning. 

By July 29, 2020 11:08


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🇺🇸S&P 500 Total Return Attribution

Multiple expansion explains the S&P 500's total return YTD, despite negative earnings growth 👉

h/t @SoberLook #markets #investing #assetallocation #returns
#sp500 $spx $spy #stocks #earnings #EPS #stockmarket #equities

🇺🇸 S&P 500

Do valuations still matter? This chart puts into perspective the wide divergence between the S&P 500 and the US economy 👉

h/t @LanceRoberts #valuation #markets #investing #sp500
$spx #spx $spy #stocks #stockmarket #equities #GDP #economy

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July 2020