Reset or Rebound?
To what extent is the world really changing and what are the long-term investment implications? Responding to the transformative events and trends of the COVID-19 crisis, we sought the views of three …
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LDI Deep Dive Series Part 2: Dynamic interest rate hedging
Investors with future liabilities are normally exposed to interest rate risk. A fall in interest rates will increase the value placed on future liabilities. By adopting a liability-driven investment (LDI) strategy, much of this interest rate risk can be mitigated. In this deep dive series we will investigate the most important considerations for developing successful …
Top five Best Read Research – January
A lot of OpinioPro readers gave the financial long-term outlook of Capital Group a good look. The key takeways from what Capital Group is expecting from the future is that economic growth is making a comeback whilst the current low interest rates can help investors move to the equity markets instead of other asset classes. What definitely makes this article worth reading is the very informative COVID winners and losers section it provides.
End of the Fed’s Credit Support Facilities Is Positive
The success of the Federal Reserve’s emergency intervention in March 2020 played a crucial role in stabilizing and improving liquidity in U.S. credit markets. The cessation of the Fed’s corporate credit facilities, in our opinion, lowers the risk of unintended imbalances within credit markets that could potentially …
Creativity in a Low‑Yield Era
Strengthening economic recovery in 2021 would carry risks for bond investors, warns Mark Vaselkiv, chief investment officer, Fixed Income. He says investors will need to be creative in seeking out fixed income sectors—such as floating rate bank loans and emerging market …
The Future in Focus
The Future in Focus Pivoting from uncertainty to opportunity. The past 12 months have tested the world in ways that were hard to imagine last January. What started as a solid year for equities was turned upside down as the
The Great Pretender
For many years nominal interest rates, largely from developed markets, served the dual purpose of providing stable income and diversification benefits in many multi asset portfolios. Yet with yields on these assets testing the zero boundary, the allure to owning them looks increasingly tarnished. A small move in price can wipe out your income for the year.
Podcast: Let’s talk about ESG
Covid-19 has exposed a lot of societal issues, be it job security or workplace safety, however the social aspect of ESG remains one of the least explored by investors today. Speaking to Citywire Selector, BNP Paribas Asset Management’s Jane Ambachtsheer, global head of sustainability, and Adam Kanzer, head of stewardship Americas, said lots …
DCEP may play a key part in China’s long-term economic transition
China’s Digital Currency Electronic Payment (DCEP) system was proposed in 2014 and will be one of the first Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDC) in the world. The DCEP was first tested in April 2020 within Shenzhen, Chengdu, Suzhou and Xiong’an New Area (Xiong’an). The pilot in Xiong’an is part of preparations for the 2022 Winter Olympics. The pilots may be expanded to cover several …
Video: Multi-Asset Conversations – Episode 1
In the first of the series Vincent McEntegart gives his thoughts on the broad market expectations for 2021 and Debbie King presents a short case study on how we use bank equity and bank credit in our income strategies to deliver income plus a strong risk-adjusted return.
Podcast: Flash Update – UBP Global & Absolute Return Fixed Income Outlook 2021
Key takeaways: 1) We anticipate that the global growth recovery will remain intact as vaccine distribution will allow economies to gradually normalise, 2) Monetary and fiscal policy shall remain accommodative, 3) We expect this to be a positive environment for credit, whilst interest rate markets have room to breathe higher
“Turning to the tasks of our time”
“Turning to the tasks of our time” Joe Biden, 46th President of the United States Markets at a glance President Biden kicked off his new term with a flurry of executive orders and directives (30) in his first three days
2021 Global Multi-Asset Outlook
Markets are entering the new year optimistic about the successful development of vaccines to combat the spread of COVID-19, seeing the news as a light at the end of the dark tunnel that was 2020. The extreme enthusiasm, however, has driven many markets to record highs, extending valuations and creating a rotation toward cheaper stocks in more cyclically …
De S in ESG even belangrijk als de E en G
De S in ESG even belangrijk als de E en G Covid-19 heeft vele gevolgen. Eén ervan is dat er meer aandacht is bij beleggers voor het sociale aspect in bedrijven. Uit een enquête van BNP Paribas Asset Management medio
Welcome back Ms Yellen!
Recent news about the COVID-19 pandemic has been worrying, with more contagious strains of the virus spreading internationally, rising contamination rates, and healthcare systems on the verge of being overwhelmed, particularly in the UK and the US.
Vaccines: Israel and the UAE show the way forward
With vaccines having been rolled out to combat the global pandemic in late-December, perhaps unsurprisingly, two wealthy, small nations – Israel and the UAE – are among the global leaders in deploying them to their domestic populations.
EM local bonds shine in a low-yield world
The stars are aligning for emerging market local debt. The asset class may have been in the doldrums since the global financial crisis, but it is now poised to outperform thanks to a raft of positive factors – from emerging markets’ solid economic fundamentals and undervalued …
Glimpses of light at the tunnel’s end
After a rollercoaster 2020 for European high yield markets, 2021 looks set to be more stable. Fears of high levels of corporate defaults have proved unjustified, allowing high yield to rebound in 2020 and setting the scene for the coming year. While the second Covid-19 wave, and the new variant, are weighing on recovery, once vaccinations bring the virus under control a degree of normality …
Chasing unicorns
Unprecedented monetary and fiscal stimulus and late-year positive news on vaccines fueled a relentless rally in …
From Paris to Glasgow: the return of the U.S. to the climate fight
The 2016 Paris Agreement is at a critical juncture for at least two reasons. First, it recently celebrated its five-year anniversary. It is far too early to analyse the Agreement’s “achievements”, but that will not stop critics from trying. This scrutiny should be welcomed by those whose fear that not enough attention is being paid to rising temperatures’ grave threat to mankind. After all, 2020 was the second-hottest …
COVID-19: Data privacy risks and potential opportunities
COVID-19: Data privacy risks and potential opportunities Social sensitivities around personal information held by external parties, particularly technology firms, has rapidly grown in recent years – and it’s a concern which has escalated in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Crypto in Review 2020: The Year of the Bull
Crypto in Review 2020 The Year of the Bull 2020 will be remembered as a catastrophic year for the world’s economy as the COVID-19 pandemic ravaged global markets. In light of this tragedy, crypto’s epic COVID-19-induced crash and bounce to
2021 wereldeconomie: de meest spraakmakende personen
2021 wereldeconomie: de meest spraakmakende personen Traditioneel wordt aan het einde van ieder kalenderjaar de balans opgemaakt en vliegen de ranglijsten je om de oren. Wij pakken het anders aan: welke personen moet u in 2021 in de gaten houden,
Sector Compass: Light Sector Compass Reopening, Recovery and Rotation
Sector Compass: Light Sector Compass Reopening, Recovery and Rotation The sector rotation seen in flows and performance in the last two months of 2020 could continue given many investors still hold cash and are underweight the more risky areas. While
More than zero: Using emerging markets bonds to optimise portfolios
More than zero: Using emerging markets bonds to optimise portfolios There are a number of reasons many investors do not yet have emerging markets (EM) bonds in their portfolio, including awareness, understanding and difficulty of access. All of this means
Negative outlook for Q1: Double-dip recession in Europe
In September 2020 we published our long-term outlook (link). At that time we anticipated that the economic recovery in the eurozone would start in the second half of 2020 and that the rebound would continue into 2021. Unfortunately, after a strong economic recovery in the third quarter, many eurozone countries imposed new lockdown …
In Credit – All change, all change.
It is Martin Luther King Day today and on 20 January Joe Biden will be inaugurated as the 47th and oldest ever President of the United States. There was a degree of stabilisation in rates markets last week after the inflation fears led a sell off. The benchmark 10-year US government …
A climate-aware US ushers in a new era for clean energy
The election of Joe Biden as the new US President places the world’s biggest economy back at the heart of international efforts to limit global warming. The Democrats’ environmental agenda is as bold as they come. A pledge to re-join the Paris Climate Accord within …
European sustainable infrastructure: in a sweet spot
In a turbulent 2020 infrastructure was an apparent safe haven, proving relatively resilient. However, the unprecedented shock to the asset class across all industry sectors and geographies at the same time, in a short period of time, has provided food for thought on several issues.
In the money: Financial exchanges hit the sweet spot
Financial sector headlines are often dominated by banks and insurers. But there is one area that has emerged as a steady grower and dividend payer: financial exchanges. Exchanges’ gains contrast against steep declines in the broader financials sector, where traditional banks in particular have grappled with ultra-low rates and a slowing global economy. Over the …
Mutual Funds available to the Dutch retail market
Mutual Funds available to the Dutch retail market Top 10 Rankings Screening – The screening starts by selecting the range of funds that are open-end and registered for sale in The Netherlands for the specific asset class – In order
Economic and asset allocation views January 2021
Economic and asset allocation views January 2021 Global market perspective News that a Covid-19 vaccine is on its way has provided a boost to the outlook for the world economy, and spurred a significant rally in risk assets. Over the
Communicating uncertainties in official statistics — A review of communication methods
This report examines the state-of-the-art for verbal, numerical and visual methods that are available to communicate uncertainties in official statistics reports. It provides insights into the uncertainty of statistical estimates through a review of existing work on the communication of
With unified Democratic control, fiscal stimulus looms large in 2021
With unified Democratic control, fiscal stimulus looms large in 2021 January 2021 The big thing I am focused on as we begin 2021 is: Will the cyclical rotation trade, which was the dominant market trend during the last two months
What lies ahead for the US economy?
It really is different this time. While this is not the first pandemic the US has faced, our reaction to it — the restrictions placed on portions of the US economy, and the policy response — are truly unprecedented. First, there are lots of reasons to be optimistic about the US economy over the longer term. Official productivity statistics likely understate the impact of innovation …
Equities look set for a positive 2021, however, risks linger (Podcast)
Equities look set for a positive 2021: last year’s themes and secular change should persist with support coming from factors such as dovish monetary policies. However, risks linger, not least those related to the pandemic. Overall, this constellation makes for a stock pickers’ market, argues Guy Davies, CIO of Equities.
The other virus
The other virus Column by Hendrik Tuch While Covid-19 continues to grab headlines, we should not disregard the economic effect of another virus which is steadily spreading across the globe. The African swine fever virus does not affect humans but
Euro high yield: the opportunity today
Euro high yield: the opportunity today Credit Outlook The upheavals of 2020 have brought structural changes in the euro high yield (EHY) bond market. So, what has changed, what still applies, and what role can this sector play in European
Quarterly Outlook
Quarterly Outlook January 2021 The start of 2021 and the promise of broad vaccine distribution brings a sigh of relief to many. Yet, the long-term investment ramifications of the pandemic will continue to unfold over the coming years as governments
We have always needed water and that is not going to change
We have always needed water and that is not going to change Water: a pervasive resource and a portfolio staple The transition of many economies from a depletive to a sustainable model with better social and environmental outcomes creates a
Municipal bond outlook: Silver lining to COVID storm clouds
Municipal bond outlook: Silver lining to COVID storm clouds Commuter trains with seats to spare at rush hour. Vacant dorm rooms. And, of course, hospital wards, stretched to capacity. The effects of COVID-19 on all our lives have been plain
2021 Global Market Outlook – Managing to the Other Side
2021 Global Market Outlook – Managing to the Other Side Four themes to follow: An Uneven Road to Recovery Style Dispersion Amid Disruption Creativity in a Low Yield Era Politics and the Pandemic
Brightening Outlook Propels Credit Market Rally
Brightening Outlook Propels Credit Market Rally Fixed Income Asset Allocation Insights Credit markets continued to rally into December, and valuations now fairly reflect optimism that we are firmly on the path toward economic and earnings recovery. While these conditions would
UBP Frontier Debt – 2020 review and 2021 outlook
UBP Frontier Debt 2020 review and 2021 outlook 2020 confirmed the volatility of Frontier Debt, but also its resilience and mean reverting nature Belief in the longer-term merits of the asset class gave UBP the confidence to launch our fund,
DNB starts implementation of new UFR curve
DNB starts implementation of new UFR curve January 2021 As announced last year, De Nederlandsche Bank (DNB), the regulator for Dutch pension funds, will start publishing interest rate curves with an adjusted methodology at the end of this month. Over
Allocation views – A little more clarity?
As we enter 2021, financial markets appear to be clinging to a more optimistic view of the world than the one we left behind in 2020. Undoubtedly we have reasons to be more hopeful, but it seems that we still
Alternative Strategies For A Democratic U.S.Congress
As we go to press, it looks likely that Democrats will also run the Senate, in addition to the White House and the House of Representatives. With expectations that this will translate into greater fiscal stimulus in the near-term, bond
What Georgia Senate Results Could Mean for Markets
What Georgia Senate Results Could Mean for Markets Unified government puts fiscal stimulus, tax increases on table. T. Rowe Price Insights on the U.S. Election As president, Joe Biden will have a stronger hand to pursue his legislative agenda now that
Stronger headwinds in the short run, but the medium-term outlook improves on vaccine rollout
Stronger headwinds in the short run, but the medium-term outlook improves on vaccine rollout House View The global economy rebounded strongly in the third quarter, after a very sharp contraction in the first half of the year. Global economies remain
Wat zijn onze verwachtingen voor de markten 2021?
Het verschil tussen de financiële markten en de reële economie leek nog nooit zo groot als in 2020. Men hoopt weliswaar dat de tweede golf van COVID-19 in Europa, het zwaarst getroffen continent, zal verzwakken, maar de epidemie blijft zich
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