The Aristotle List: 10 improbable but possible outcomes for 2022

Invesco
By January 11, 2022 15:56

The Aristotle List: 10 improbable but possible outcomes for 2022

Uncommon truths 

It is time to forget central scenarios and think about improbable but possible outcomes. Market sentiment is now mixed (thanks to the Fed), so our list of surprises contains something for everybody (these hypothetical predictions are our views of what could happen even if they do not necessarily form part of our central scenario).

Aristotle said that “probable impossibilities are to be preferred to improbable possibilities”, meaning that we find it easier to believe in interesting impossibilities (B52s on the moon, say) than in unlikely possibilities. The aim of this document is to seek those unlikely possibilities — out-of-consensus ideas for 2022 that we believe have at least a 30% chance of occurring. The concept was unashamedly borrowed from erstwhile colleague Byron Wien, who recently published his 10 surprises for 2022.

Invesco
By January 11, 2022 15:56

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