An engineer confronted with a problem in a novel environment would be tempted to fashion a specific solution. But studies of the pattern of synaptic connections of children, as well as the emergence of industries, show that the overproduction of
You know that recession narratives abound when Cardi B is tweeting “When y’all think they going to announce that we going into a recession?”1 Even more pronounced is the “stagflation” hysteria. Major investment banks are publishing stagflation primers… an institutional
Last year global sustainable debt issuance hit a record of over $1.4tn, with the overall sustainable debt universe expanding to near $3.4tn. In the first quarter of 2022 this healthy trend halted temporarily, as high energy prices and rising borrowing
Our central scenario is that we avoid a severe global downturn thanks in large part to fiscal support, and a more gradual pace of tightening by the central banks in the second half of the year. With major markets having
Investment managers at Baillie Gifford have been thinking a lot about inflation and how it affects portfolio returns in recent months. Usually, such macroeconomic questions matter less to us than the strengths of individual companies and their potential for extraordinary
Growing uncertainty in markets has rekindled the age-old “active vs. passive” debate. In 2017, PIMCO published results of an exhaustive study that showed active U.S. bond mutual funds had largely outperformed their median passive peers over many years, whereas active
GDPNow is not an official forecast of the Atlanta Fed. Rather, it is best viewed as a running estimate of real GDP growth based on available economic data for the current measured quarter. There are no subjective adjustments made to
In 2018, it was relatively easy for asset managers to ignore the cryptocurrency space. Bitcoin had crashed, losing over 80% of its value, and the new ecosystem was littered with failed initial coin offerings. It all looked like a fad.
World events continue to remind us how connected we all are. We are emerging from a global pandemic, supporting victims of war and tragic violence, confronting social and economic inequities, and addressing climate change. These events underscore the importance of
Thanks to a month-end rally, global equities ultimately posted relatively flat returns for the month of May. It was a volatile month for global bonds, too. Yields initially spiked higher, with the 10-year US Treasury yield peaking at 3.2%, while
May provided a reprieve for investors as a late-month rally in both equities and bonds recouped much of the losses seen early in the month. Economic surprises in the US began to miss consensus expectations in May with a sharp
At the recent COP267 conference, members of the Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero (GFANZ), of which Franklin Templeton is a member, signed a commitment to deploy over US$100 trillion in financing over the next three decades to move the
Riding the Green Wave: Green and sustainable investment in emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs) rebounded from pandemicrelated challenges to reach record levels in 2021. This report provides an overview of developments in the market for green bonds issued in
Agriculture’s growing contribution to the net zero cause In the chilly waters off the coast of Tasmania grows a plant that might prove to be the tipping point in the fight against a particularly potent source of global warming: methane
United States: After the contraction in Q1 (resulting from an outsized detraction from net exports and a payback from the surge in inventories in Q4, not from weak demand) we expect sequential growth to pick up from Q2 and stabilise
Overview It gives me great pleasure to introduce our ninth Secular Outlook. T he next five years will be an uphill struggle for investors. High public and corporate debt levels, labour shortages, potential tax hikes and increased levels of state
In this Q&A, Kirstie Spence and Robert Burgess share their views on Russia, commodity prices and the impact of the conflict on emerging markets. How does the Russia-Ukraine conflict compare to previous periods of geopolitical instability? Kirstie: The current situation
Pensioenakkoord uitgelegd – Deel 10 In de zomer van 2020 hebben het kabinet en sociale partners overeenstemming bereikt over een vergaande herziening van het pensioenstelsel. Dit pensioenakkoord heeft grote gevolgen voor hoe pensioen wordt opgebouwd en wordt belegd. In deze
ESG adoption is on the rise, fuelled by client demand and a desire to make an impact. As ESG momentum continues to gain steam, investors are refining and evolving their strategies. This can be seen in the implementation arena, where
De vastrentende markten zijn steeds volatieler geworden, een trend die zich waarschijnlijk zal voortzetten. Beleggers moeten zich aanpassen. De recente stijging van de obligatierendementen heeft beleggers in vastrentende waarden doen opschrikken. Eén benchmarkindex voor obligaties tekende, ten opzichte van de
All asset classes have benefited from 30 years of falling interest rates, as future cash flows have been discounted at steadily lower rates, boosting present values. Trend-Following strategies, which take long and short positions across equity, interest rate, commodity, currency,
The idea that there is a comfortable degree of budgetary room for more active fiscal policy goes hand-in-hand with the assumption that a sustained bond correction (higher safe real interest rate) is not only unjustified based on fundamentals, but is
The rise of the narrative concept and how it can help financial market understanding. A narrative is a popular story that arises from the public consciousness of market events. The most viral and intense of these may dominate public attention.
Soaring commodity prices have helped drive inflation to 8.5%, by far the highest level in the last few decades. With commodity prices up and inflation creating waves, is it too late for investors to capitalize on high commodity prices? Have
In 2018, it was relatively easy for asset managers to ignore the cryptocurrency space. Bitcoin had crashed, losing over 80% of its value, and the new ecosystem was littered with failed initial coin offerings. It all looked like a fad.
Today climate change is arguably the most critical long-term challenge that humanity is facing. “Climate action failure” is not only the top longterm threat in the World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Report for 2022, but is also a key element
We keep the probabilities of our central and alternative scenario unchanged versus last month but amend the narrative to take into account the evolving geopolitical situation (see Ukraine crisis tree).The new wave of Covid-19 in China and stagnation in the
Most assets have again delivered negative returns in both local currency and USD, with the notable exception of commodities (or more precisely energy and agricultural products). That was unfortunate for us, given that we were zero-weighted in commodities (having been
Capital Ideas WEBINARS Globalisation: the reports of its demise are greatly exaggerated COVID-19 disruptions showed that global supply lines aren’t perfectly efficient machines. And recent moves by China and Russia have reminded the world that approaches to politics and the
For most risk assets, total return is achieved predominantly via capital price return, but not in high yield. Over long-term periods, income tends to drive the bulk of the total return for high yield bonds. In fact, over 100% of
The S&P 500 Index fell into bear market territory on Friday 20 May – defined as a 20% from its recent high – the first time since March 2020, when markets sold off over fears around the Covid-19 pandemic. But
What do Netflix, Peloton Interactive, Coinbase, and Palantir Technologies have in common? I admit it isn’t a particularly challenging question. As anyone who has been following the U.S. stock market in the last 10 months knows all too well, they
Many investors see yield curve inversions—when short-term bond yields exceed longterm yields—as foreboding. Do they signal a stock market downturn? Data from the US and other major economies show yield curve inversions have not historically predicted …
With inflation at multi-decade highs and growth already slowing, investors were rightfully sceptical about the Fed’s ability to aggressively tackle inflation without sending the economy into recession having waited too long. Now two hikes in and messaging front-loading future hikes
Alts in Agregate Real Estate Infrastructure Private Markets Hedge Funds
So, let's start. Clearly the global economy, in a constant state of flux, with the post effects of the pandemic, geopolitical tension, mounting inflation, rising interest rates, causing tremendous impact to listed markets. And as we speak to our clients
The buzz swirling around the electric vehicle (EV) sector has been front and centre for investors looking to profit from the world’s transition to a net-zero carbon economy. Tesla recently skyrocketed to a US$1 trillion market cap, joining an elite
Alongside the terrible human tragedy that has unfolded since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the war has also exaggerated many pre-existing trends. Some include the upward pressure on commodities and further disruptions to global supply gains at a time when inflationary
As bond ETFs turn 20 years old, we believe four trends will propel global AUM to USD 5 trillion by 2030 Twenty years ago, computerised stock trading was reshaping the unseen market plumbing that connects buyers with sellers. Pit-style trading
We need to remain humble and nimble as we assess the changing investment landscape and seek to fulfil our purpose: to create a better future through responsible investing. In addition to precipitating a devastating humanitarian crisis, Russia's invasion of Ukraine
ETFs posted net inflows of close to $2.0bn last week. Equity attracted the strongest flows, in excess of $3.0bn, taking the year-to-date amount over $51bn. • Fixed income and Commodity exposures suffered net outflows, compounding what has been a disappointing
The peak in global inflation is probably not far away, but there are several reasons to think that it will fall relatively slowly. Lockdowns in China have caused bottlenecks in global supply chains to re-emerge, upside risks to commodity prices
In today’s environment, small-capitalization stocks in emerging markets (EM) offer compelling reasons for consideration. We believe this universe has big potential, may deliver consistent returns, and can provide diversification in portfolios. The case for active management in this space is
Na een lange periode waarin inflatie (ruim) onder de doelstelling van de Europese Centrale Bank lag, zijn de prijzen in Nederland en in het eurogebied de afgelopen maanden omhooggeschoten. Dit is deels een gevolg van de heropening van de economie
This marks the third iteration of the Global Family Office Survey. UBS surveyed 221 of its clients globally between 19 January and 20 February 2022. Participants were invited using an online methodology and were distributed across more than 30 markets
CROSS ASSET Investment Strategy – June 2022: The repricing of a more aggressive Fed stance has been brutal as the 10Y UST yield temporarily reached the 3% threshold, falling close to 2.75% recently on economic growth concerns. We think investors
This is the fifth Swiss Sustainable Investment Market Study published by Swiss Sustainable Finance (SSF) in collaboration with the Center for Sustainable Finance and Private Wealth (CSP) at the University of Zurich. After the impressive increase in the amount of
The past decade has been an exceptionally profitable period to be invested in global equity markets, with the MSCI AC World Index averaging 10.6% per annum in the 10 years to 31 March 2022*. Solid GDP growth, low interest rates
Bomen slaan tijdens de groei veel CO2 op. Als hout een duurzame bestemming krijgt zoals bouwmateriaal, kan er met slim beheer van bosgrond meer broeikasgas worden opgeslagen dan wanneer de natuur haar gang gaat. Binnen een periode van dertig jaar
Among investors pursuing long-term objectives like retirement, there is an understandable tendency to focus on the accumulation of assets, and the process, while by no means easy, is fairly straightforward, with a limited number of variables to consider. But as
