We keep the probabilities of our central and alternative scenario unchanged versus last month but amend the narrative to take into account the evolving geopolitical situation (see Ukraine crisis tree).The new wave of Covid-19 in China and stagnation in the
Most assets have again delivered negative returns in both local currency and USD, with the notable exception of commodities (or more precisely energy and agricultural products). That was unfortunate for us, given that we were zero-weighted in commodities (having been
Capital Ideas WEBINARS Globalisation: the reports of its demise are greatly exaggerated COVID-19 disruptions showed that global supply lines aren’t perfectly efficient machines. And recent moves by China and Russia have reminded the world that approaches to politics and the
For most risk assets, total return is achieved predominantly via capital price return, but not in high yield. Over long-term periods, income tends to drive the bulk of the total return for high yield bonds. In fact, over 100% of
The S&P 500 Index fell into bear market territory on Friday 20 May – defined as a 20% from its recent high – the first time since March 2020, when markets sold off over fears around the Covid-19 pandemic. But
