Finding a Bottom in Equities
In this note, we provide some historical context to equity bear markets, explore the size of equity drawdowns during economic …
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Walk, Don’t Run: Mid-Year Update 2022
As we have highlighted for some time, our macro viewpoint remains that this cycle is different. Specifically, we see uneven supply constraints, higher levels of interest rates, and heightened geopolitical risks against a backdrop of slower real economic growth and
Views in brief: Nowhere to hide
Global tactical asset allocation views brief As inflation data continued to surprise on the upside, major central banks had no other choice but to tighten their monetary policies more aggressively than markets had expected. This led to speculations that a
From pain to gain
In our previous outlook, we encouraged investors to tune out “noise” and focus on “signal” — economic and asset class fundamentals evidenced in hard data. We continue to endorse this approach, but acknowledge that even the most diligent followers of
Decarbonisation of electricity generation: The foundation stone for achieving net zero
Humanity’s strategy for reaching net zero could be crudely described as “electrify everything we can and decarbonise electricity generation”. There is, of course, much more to it than this. But it is true that the virtual elimination of carbon emissions
Consequences of Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine on Global LNG Markets
Russia’s war with Ukraine has led to a substantial demand shock from European countries for liquid natural gas (LNG) imports as the EU seeks to reduce its imports of Russian gas by two-thirds. They hope to offset the shortfall primarily
2022 Midyear Investment Outlook
Much of the world continues to move past the COVID-19 pandemic, but its remarkable effects on economies and policies remain top of mind as a new set of uncertainties enters the picture. Historic pandemic-era moves by both fiscal and monetary
A case for active non-U.S. small-cap equity
In this paper, we offer quantitative analysis that builds a case for a long-term allocation to non-U.S. small-cap equity. We are often asked by consultants and institutional investors why they should allocate to non-U.S. small-cap strategies. Conventional wisdom is that
Play the desynchronization of the cycle
CROSS ASSET Investment Strategy: The current repricing is a reminder of a regime shift in which stagflationary concerns are becoming prominent. Investors should move towards quality segments in credit and equities, and aim to benefit from the regional divergences that
Private Market Assets: The New Funding Stream That’s Here To Stay
Private market assets have transformed the investment landscape in the 14 years since the global financial crisis. Latest figures show that there is now almost $10tn1 invested in private markets, in what is becoming a global and ever more diverse
Q3 2022 Asset Allocation Outlook: Central bankers strike back
The first six months of 2022 were particularly challenging for investors, as central banks became increasingly determined to rein in inflation – sparking weakness across almost all asset classes. We believe the next six months will also prove tricky, while
ECB faces tough choices as it prepares to raise rates
So far in 2022, the European economy has held up remarkably well despite investor worries about a war-induced recession. But as the European Central Bank (ECB) prepares to hike interest rates at its 21 July meeting, the economy faces substantial
Financieel Advies in Cijfers 2022 – 2023
Onafhankelijk financieel adviseurs zorgen voor gemoedsrust, zekerheid en veiligheid van hun klanten. Zij doen dat door burgers en bedrijven te helpen keuzes bewuster te maken, beter uit te voeren en langer vol te houden. Zo kunnen klanten zich richten op
EMEA-Listed ETF Flash Flows
ETFs suffered net outflows of $2.3bn last week, driven mainly by Equity and Commodity, which lost $1.2bn and $900mn, respectively. Fixed Income exposures saw more muted net outflows losing $270mn.
Q3 Capital Markets Outlook
On the surface, the decision by the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) to increase the upper bound on the federal funds rate by 75 basis points (bps) at its June 15 meeting seems almost anticlimactic in hindsight. By that
Investing in deflation, inflation, and stagflation regimes
We examine asset class and factor premiums across inflationary regimes. As periods of high inflation and deflation are relatively uncommon in recent history, we use a deep sample starting in 1875. Moderate inflation scenarios provide the highest returns across asset
Licht uit, spot aan: de vermogensverdeling
De vermogensverdeling is de afgelopen 15 jaar over het geheel genomen relatief constant, maar schever dan eerder gedacht. Data en statistieken over de vermogensverdeling in Nederland zijn goed, maar niet volledig omdat sommige vermogenstitels (nog) niet of onvoldoende in beeld
Opportunities in alternative fixed income
The alternative fixed income asset class is highly diverse, embracing private debt, consumer loans, mortgage investments, insured loans, loans to small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), infrastructure debt and asset-backed securities (ABS). These assets can offer enhanced yields compared to government
Benefitting from the forthcoming ECB interest rate rises
Following yesterday’s stronger than anticipated Eurozone inflation print, coupled with recent comments from various ECB members including President Lagarde, Vice-President de Guindos and Chief Economist Lane, the European Central Bank are expected to increase interest rates in July, the first
A focus on inflation
The conflict in Ukraine has delivered a commodity price shock similar to that of the early 1970s, shattering hopes that the inflationary uptick may prove to be transitory. As inflation reaches multi-decade highs, we analyse what is driving inflation across
US Consumer Inflation: who loses less wins
June’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) was about the worst composition possible from a Fed perspective as it was (1) a broad-based increase that (2) accelerated. The base effect was supposed to be shading inflation down, but it’s been totally overrun
Sustainability Report 2021
I am delighted to introduce you to UBP’s 2021 Sustainability Report. This report highlights our efforts to embed sustainability at UBP. It outlines our vision and strategy as well as progress towards strengthening our responsible investment activities and improving our
Now what? What’s next for tech
Valuations were simply not sustainable The first half of 2022 was anything but pleasant for investors, especially those with exposure to the technology sector. Tech stocks across global markets experienced violent sell-offs, and tech indexes are now firmly in bear
Responsible Investment in a DC World
In this article, we consider the future of responsible investment expectations in a defined contribution (DC) pensions world. In particular, the expectations of individual members and their pension providers. These are necessarily aligned in the longer term – providers will
Q2 2022 Global Currency and Macroeconomic Highlights
Headline inflation will likely peak this quarter, but domestic service inflation should continue to rise. Growth is set to slow as consumers feel the squeeze in real …
Credit Factor Investing with Machine Learning techniques
Explaining portfolio returns through Fama-French-Carhart models supposes linearity between returns and risk factors. It makes it possible to simply identify relationships as a linear combination of factors, while in reality, these relationships could be much more complex. In support of
A Bigger Boat
Market views from BlackRock Systematic Investing: Central bankers across the world are facing a “Jaws”-sized inflation problem. Like Roy Schneider’s character in the shark-themed summer movie classic, they are now realizing they are going to “need a bigger boat” to
Schroders Equity Lens – Q3 2022
Global equities fell in Q2, extending year-to-date declines. The MSCI World Index returned -16.2% in Q2, taking the YTD fall to -20.5%. The market backdrop remained dominated by concerns over higher inflation, rising …
The Positive Impacts of US LIHTC Investing
The Low-Income Housing Tax Credit (LIHTC) program is the most significant resource for creating affordable housing in the United States. Created by the Tax Reform Act of 1986, the LIHTC program gives state and local LIHTC-allocating agencies tax credits worth
Cloudy with a chance of recession
The slump in global equities deepened in the second quarter of 2022 as concerns about a recession replaced fears of high inflation and an escalation of the war in Ukraine seemed less likely. The US Federal Reserve has maintained its
Barometer: Goedkoop, maar niet goedkoop genoeg
Zelfs als de aanhoudende sell-off op de aandelenmarkten de waarderingen naar niveaus brengt die niet stroken met de fundamentals, zijn er goede redenen om onderwogen te blijven in aandelen en hoogrentende obligaties.
Global Mining Outlook 2022
Changing times Ever since we began our global survey of mining executives 12 years ago, one thing has been constant: the top risk for the industry has always been commodity prices. So this year marks quite a moment: commodities markets
TIPS: How they function and the headwinds they face
Key takeaways TIPS can help investors maintain their purchasing power in inflationary periods, because their principal value adjusts with changes in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers, providing a real rate of return that exceeds that of nominal
Pictet Asset Management Secular Outlook 2022 deel 2
Wat zal de financiële markten de komende vijf jaar stimuleren?In de Secular Outlook 2022 gaat Picet Asset management dieper op deze vraag in. Van groot belang hierbij is de ondergang van wat de Washington consensus wordt genoemd. De ondergang van
Global Economic Prospects
The world economy continues to suffer from a series of destabilizing shocks. After more than two years of pandemic, the Russian Federation’s invasion of Ukraine and its global effects on commodity markets, supply chains, inflation, and financial conditions have steepened
A few words from the real world
“Gold and silver is money. Everything else is credit.” J.P. Morgan A few words from the real world I have just secured the mortgage on my new home. In the end, I opted for a loan which tracks 3-month EURIBOR
Podcast: Impact Investing -> Do public equities have a role to play?
Impact investing aims to generate a measurable social/environmental impact alongside financial return We believe that companies which help to solve emerging markets’ acute societal and environmental challenges are uniquely exposed to a clear growth path over the coming decades. Impact
EMEA-Listed ETF Flash Flows
ETFs posted net inflows of $1.6bn last week, driven by Fixed Income and Equity, which gathered $1.5bn and $1.1bn, respectively. Commodity exposures, on the other hand, suffered net outflows of $1.1bn
Emerging Market Green Bonds Report 2021
Green and sustainable investment in emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs) rebounded from pandemicrelated challenges to reach record levels in 2021. This report provides an overview of developments in the market for green bonds issued in these economies and for
Green Metals Battery Metals Watch The end of the beginning
The battery metals bull market has peaked. Battery metals – cobalt, lithium and nickel – will power the green industrial revolution, facing a wave of demand comparable to that of copper and iron ore during China’s rapid growth in the
Pictet Asset Management Secular Outlook 2022 deel 1
Wat zal de financiële markten de komende vijf jaar stimuleren? In de Secular Outlook 2022 gaat Picet Asset management dieper op deze vraag in. Centraal hierbij staan de rendementsvooruitzichten. Rendementsvooruitzichten voor de komende 5 jaar De afgelopen decennia is het
Schroders CIO Lens
T o anyone who ever travels with children, the incessant question “are we nearly there yet?” will be a familiar refrain that punctuates any long distance car journey. It’s certainly a favourite of my seven-year old daughter. Now, I find
KPMG Pensions Onderzoek Status Pensioentransitie
Per 1 januari 2023 gaat het gebeuren. Dan treedt, als de planning wordt gehaald, de Wet toekomst pensioenen in werking. Een immens omvangrijke wijziging van het pensioenstelsel gaat vanaf dan daadwerkelijk de pensioenregelingen van zo goed als iedere Nederlander wijzigen.
Building a Beta Portfolio in an Environment That Looks Difficult for Assets
I nvestors now face drastically different circumstances compared to the last decade’s favorable environment for beta in general and equities in particular. From an alpha perspective, our outlook for assets is dim. We worry about the impact of the ongoing
Global house View
Cross asset allocation: Our pessimistic views on the direction of global growth have led us to change our scores for equities from neutral to underweight, and fixed income from neutral to overweight; commodities and cash remain neutral. While equity market
ESG in de praktijk, Interview met Gabriel Micheli over ecologisch beleggen
Gabriel Micheli is senior investment manager bij Pictet Asset Management en al 15 jaar actief in de samenstelling van milieuportefeuilles. Hieronder staan enkele belangrijke quotes uit het interview.
Repositioning to a circular economy
With today's stressed supply chains and elevated commodities prices, the chart below is food for thought. It shows that …
Rates roller coaster
The US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) decision at its latest meeting to raise the fed funds rate by 75bp pushed expectations for the peak level next year to more than 4%. Simultaneously, fears that economic growth is slowing more quickly than
Defensively positioned for central bank shock therapy
Negative supply shocks and the hangover from large demand-side stimulus are keeping global inflation stubbornly high. Central banks, most notably the US Federal Reserve, are committed to reducing inflation by significantly tightening financial conditions. The extreme …
Electric Vehicles and Future Mobility
An Ecosystem Approach to Investing with KraneShares There is a climate crisis on our hands and fixing it will require a massive investment…
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