The Road Ahead

OpinioPro Selection
By September 29, 2022 14:01

The Road Ahead

Riddles in the Dark

Time, the answer to Gollum’s riddle, is to us a vaunted teacher. The first half of 2022 has been a turbulent one. In analysing ‘The Road Ahead’ from this point, our first port is the precedent of history, and of much of it as possible. In doing this we aim to establish a Tetlockian base rate from which to anchor our forecasts. In this edition we apply this process to three subjects: the performance of a 60/40 portfolio, the anatomy of a typical bear market and the indicators that best predict economic recessions. We hope this will be of use to our readers and, like Bilbo, they might escape riddles in the dark, and come to a place of greater clarity. For each section we will show two pictures, with a brief description of what they represent, and give three observations.

OpinioPro Selection
By September 29, 2022 14:01

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