2023 US Macro Outlook

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Following significant monetary tightening in 2022, we expect the cumulative effect of a higher cost of capital to work its way through the economy in 2023, slowing both inflation and growth. Therefore, the overarching theme of 2023 is that restrictive monetary policy should cool inflation but likely at the cost of creating a recession. Note, this is more negative than the current consensus which calls for a soft landing/ growth recession. The upshot for our forecast is that washing …