Investment Outlook 2023

JP Morgan
By December 8, 2022 12:53

Investment Outlook 2023

As we look to 2023 the most important question is actually quite straightforward: will inflation start to behave as economic activity slows? If so, central banks will stop raising rates, and recessions, where they occur, will likely be modest. If inflation does not start to slow, we are looking at an uglier scenario. Fortunately, we believe there are already convincing signs that inflationary pressures are moderating and will continue to do so in 2023. Housing markets are, as usual, the first to react to central banks touching the monetary brake. Materially higher new mortgage rates are crimping new housing demand and we think the ripples of weaker housing activity will permeate through the global economy in 2023. Construction will weaken, spending on furniture and other household durables will fall and falling house prices could weigh on consumer spending for the next few quarters. The decline in activity should have the intended effect of taming inflation.

JP Morgan
By December 8, 2022 12:53

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