Global Strategy 1Q 2023

Global Strategy 1Q 2023

🕔16:40, 10.Jan 2023

High inflation and increased interest rates should lead to only weak GDP growth. Central banks have not yet completed the cycle of interest rate hikes and geopolitical uncertainty could lead to increased volatility in financial markets for some time. We

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The Aristotle List: 10 improbable but possible outcomes for 2023

The Aristotle List: 10 improbable but possible outcomes for 2023

🕔14:48, 10.Jan 2023

It is time to forget central scenarios and think about improbable but possible outcomes. Markets remain volatile, so our list of surprises errs to the positive (these hypothetical predictions are our views of what could happen even if they do

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War and Peace

War and Peace

🕔12:02, 10.Jan 2023

In 2019, James Sweeney, then chief economist at Credit Suisse, popped into my office and said “you know this pandemic and lockdowns… this is where your world [funding] and my world [global industrial production] intersect, because supply chains are payment

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Regifting 2022: Another 2023 Road Map

Regifting 2022: Another 2023 Road Map

🕔09:25, 10.Jan 2023

As bank strategists and economists fill your email in box with forecasts for the year ahead, how should you process it all? Let’s admit it, most of us are driven by our confirmation bias. We weight most heavily those outlook

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