Perspective of GBP investor
2022 summary: the combination of rising risk-free yields and wider spreads resulted in the worst year in IG credit since at least 1970s. History suggests a better …
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Japan outlook: forging economic resilience amid global headwinds
The full reopening of Japanese borders has been a boon to businesses as the country comes to terms with the hard reality of co-existing with COVID. But with the world grappling with slowing growth and pressing concerns like geopolitical …
EMEA-Listed ETF Flash Flows
Weekly as of 6 January 2022: ETFs posted strong net inflows of $3.3bn last week. Fixed Income captured $2.6bn while Equity took in smaller …
The PIMCO Glide Path Construction Proces
The savings and investment plan that one follows over the course of one’s working and retirement life is among the most critical decisions an individual can make. The balance between consumption and savings determines one’s overall quality of life, not
Schroders Equity Lens – January 2023
Last year saw a reversal of many of the past decade’s trends: – the US (-19%) was one of the worst performing markets, the UK was one of the best (+7% in GBP, -5% in USD) (slides 10-11) – growth
Barometer: Na de storm
Aandelen en obligaties uit opkomende markten bieden de beste vooruitzichten voor beleggers na een zwaar jaar voor de financiële markten. Nieuw jaar, zelfde risico's? De wereldeconomie blijft voor uitdagingen staan – niet in het minst door de zwakke groei en
ETF Global Outlook
Axel Lomholt, Chief Product Officer, STOXX and DAX Indices, at Qontigo, believes that ETFs have maintained their popularity in 2022 despite the challenging market conditions. “As we have witnessed before, investors prioritise ‘safe products’ during uncertainty. We saw the same
Navigating the new road ahead
2023 Global equity outlook The months of November and December are all about expectations management in most family homes in the UK, as (occasionally unrealistic) children’s expectations for Christmas presents come into conflict with the economic realities of family budgets.
The End of the Affair
The affair with the market catalysts of the last decade is over now, and a new era of investing begins. It was nice while it lasted. The tattered posters on the cover show the remnants of some equity market catalysts
A Convex Exposure to China’s A-Share Market Opportunities
Global investors still mostly favour onshore equities, i.e. the A-share market (the CSI 800 Index), to build exposure to the Chinese economy; however, the high volatility associated with these shares has historically been a drawback. If we look back at
Global Strategy 1Q 2023
High inflation and increased interest rates should lead to only weak GDP growth. Central banks have not yet completed the cycle of interest rate hikes and geopolitical uncertainty could lead to increased volatility in financial markets for some time. We
The Aristotle List: 10 improbable but possible outcomes for 2023
It is time to forget central scenarios and think about improbable but possible outcomes. Markets remain volatile, so our list of surprises errs to the positive (these hypothetical predictions are our views of what could happen even if they do
War and Peace
In 2019, James Sweeney, then chief economist at Credit Suisse, popped into my office and said “you know this pandemic and lockdowns… this is where your world [funding] and my world [global industrial production] intersect, because supply chains are payment
Regifting 2022: Another 2023 Road Map
As bank strategists and economists fill your email in box with forecasts for the year ahead, how should you process it all? Let’s admit it, most of us are driven by our confirmation bias. We weight most heavily those outlook
EMEA-Listed ETF Flash Flows – 2022 in Review
• ETFs posted more than $88bn of net inflows in 2022. Despite a challenging backdrop with elevated inflation, monetary tightening and war in Ukraine, Equity ETFs …
Looking Ahead to 2023
End and Beginning of an Earnings Cycle In brief: Decelerating inflation should provide a tailwind for high quality bonds but will likely bring the earnings cycle to an end for most companies. Companies with uncompetitive products or services facing elevated
Monthly Investment Outlook January 2023
Stock and bond markets rallied into November on the back of speculation that the Fed might step back from its rapid pace of rate hikes and, more importantly, that it may reach its ‘terminal’ Fed Funds policy rate by early-2023.
2023 Natixis Institutional Outlook Survey
After the Gold Rush Institutional investors forced to dig deep for opportunity as they brace for inflation or stagflation in post-pandemic markets. After seeming to recover from the pandemic in 2021, the global economy relapsed into what may be classified as a
Cross asset investment strategy
Central & alternative scenarios (12 to 18 months horizon) Monthly update We maintain the probabilities of our scenarios unchanged. Some of the risk factors we identify may occur in our central scenario, which is probably not yet fully priced-in by
Maximale intensiteit: portefeuilles met bedrijfsobligaties uit opkomende markten worden koolstofarm
Opkomende markten gaan efficiënter om met hun koolstofgebruik. Dat zou beleggers moeten helpen om hun bedrijfsobligatieportefeuilles af te stemmen op duurzame doelstellingen. Hoe meer fossiele brandstof je verbrandt, hoe rijker je wordt. Sinds de industriële revolutie gaan hogere koolstofemissies en
Uncommon truths 2022: a year in review
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine dominated our thoughts in 2022 but inflation and central banks seemed more important to markets. We expect central banks to dominate again in 2023. A year ago, we were expecting less economic growth and a convergence
Nieuwe SFDR regels: geen appeltje-eitje Aandachtspunten voor 2023
Op 10 maart 2021 is de Verordening betreffende informatieverschaffing over duurzaamheid in de financieledienstensector, ook wel bekend als SFDR1 , in werking getreden. Per 1 januari 2023 gelden specifiekere regels voor transparantie over duurzaam beleggen. Vooruitlopend op deze specifiekere transparantieregels
2023 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions
Our 2023 return outlook stands in stark contrast to last year’s. Across markets, the unwind of dislocations, notably negative policy rates and large central bank balance sheets, has been abrupt. Few asset classes emerged unscathed. But our LTCMAs deliver a
RLAM Outlook 2023
Writing an outlook for the year ahead might be viewed as an exercise in damage limitation: don’t stick your neck out and go with the consensus. But Royal London Asset Management has never been a consensus asset manager. Last year, we
Outlook for 2023: Keep It Simple
Despite all the uncertainty across today’s global capital markets, we are poised to enter 2023 with a more constructive tilt, especially on many parts of Credit. Our basic premise is that it will be easier to navigate inflation’s negative impact
De geheimen van valuta-afdekking binnen vastrentende waarden
Beleggen in het buitenland betekent ook beleggen in een vreemde munt. Dat kan het leven wat ingewikkelder maken, vooral voor obligatiebeleggers. De post-pandemische divergentie in het monetaire beleid van de centrale banken heeft geleid tot sterke schommelingen op de financiële
Emerging Markets Lens: Equity
Year-to-date, EMEA markets have taken a hit, while several Asian EM, including China, lag the index. Conversely, commodity-producing Latin American and Middle Eastern markets have been the top performers. After the recent rally, and downward revisions to 2023 earnings expectations,
Dollars Ex Machina
In late 2016, we were approached by a brilliant entrepreneur with an interesting investment opportunity. We mask the full details here to protect anonymity but believe us when we say this person has a knack for being incredibly early to
Guide to Alternatives
Guide to the markets
2023 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions
J.P. Morgan Asset Management’s Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions are developed each year by our Assumptions Committee, a multi-asset class team of senior investors and strategists from across the firm. The Committee relies on the input and expertise of a range of
JPM AM Portfolio Insights
What do our Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions mean for defined contribution plans? Our 2023 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions, which forecast asset class returns over a 10- to 15-year horizon, suggest that public markets today offer the best potential long-term returns
Defensive asset allocation extends into 2023, with a gradual increase in risk exposure later in the year
Profit recession, tightening central banks (with divergences in forward guidance), and stillhigh inflation are primary market concerns. US inflation moderating has been a positive lately, but whether that deceleration will be sustained would decide the Fed’s stance, which in turn
Centrale banken blijven stemming bepalen
We nemen winst op grondstoffen en energieaandelen De centrale banken drukken een zware stempel op het gemoed van beleggers. Met hun renteverhogingen, in reactie op de hoog opgelopen inflatie, hebben zij dit jaar de aandelen- en obligatiemarkten onder druk gezet.
Capital Allocation Results, Analysis, and Assessment
The primary job of senior management is to create value over the long term. This entails taking inputs, including capital and labor, and making them worth more than their cost over time. Capital allocation, which describes how a company raises
Looking toward a non-dollar asset recovery in 2023
Going into 2022, it seemed the global economy was finally set to recover from the pandemic after the uneven emergence from lockdowns that characterized 2021. Then another curve ball materialized, in the form of the Russia-Ukraine war that started in
2023 Outlook
2022 has been a difficult year for investors. Equity and bond markets have experienced double-digit declines amid stubbornly high inflation, slowing economic growth, and the war in Ukraine. Recessions in the United States and euro area look increasingly likely in
Systematic Fixed Income Outlook
Peak inflation appears to have arrived. What’s next? The central bank narrative has shifted from a focus on the pace of tightening to the terminal rate required to bring inflation back down to the targeted level. Throughout 2022, expectations for
Global tactical asset allocation views brief
Lower than expected inflation numbers helped both equity and bond markets continue to trend higher in November. News from China supported this positive sentiment as the world's second largest economy finally showed signs of a shift away from their zero-COVID
Outlook 2023 – Why testing times call for sustainable solutions
The macroeconomic backdrop in 2023 will be a real test for companies, with the impetus for authentic solutions to sustainability challenges being greater than ever. Here, we share our perspective on key themes that will shape global markets in 2023
Outlook – Long-term perspective on markets and economies
There’s a new reality taking shape in global markets. Many commentators are focusing on the rotation from growth to value, but I think that view is too simplistic. Some investors may be hoping for a return to normal after central
The Investment Outlook for 2023
The U.S. economy: Looking beyond the cycle 2022 turned out to be another very difficult year. Widespread vaccination and less lethal strains of COVID-19 led to lower fatality rates, allowing most pandemic-weary populations around the world to move back toward
Monetary power and sovereign debt crises: The renewed case for a sovereign debt restructuring mechanism
The sovereign debt crises threatening states in the Global South are less about fiscal mismanagement and more about monetary power in the global currency hierarchy, and until that issue is addressed, these states will continue to be vulnerable to debt
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