"De enorme groei van het geproduceerde en menselijke kapitaal, gaat ten koste van het natuurlijk kapitaal. Dat is niet langer zo vol te houden.” In allerlei opzichten komt er een steeds duidelijker prijskaartje te hangen aan de wijze waarop bedrijven
Economic and Strategy Viewpoint Q1 2023 Upgrade to global growth as developed markets hold up and China reopens. After what has felt like a constant period of negative economic shocks and forecast downgrades as the world has lurched from one
KEY INSIGHTS After a difficult year, securitized credit markets exited 2022 with positive momentum that carried over into early 2023. Supply technicals should become less of a headwind and more of a tailwind for securitized credit markets in 2023. Securitized
Flash Update: The decision to invest in emerging markets today should be based on the economic forecasts for the region and managers’ ability to position themselves accordingly. Analysis of UBAM – Positive Impact Emerging Equity’s recent history can shed some
Applied philosophy Are global equities in a recovery or still in the midst of a downturn? We analysed how valuations and earnings progressed through previous market cycles to get closer to an answer. While our findings provide some clues to
De baanbrekende deal op de VN-top om het biodiversiteitsverlies een halt toe te roepen wil bedrijven en beleggers in de frontlinie plaatsen in de strijd om de natuur te beschermen.
What to watch: Nigeria beyond the elections, Eurozone mortgages and China’s reopening. Market movers Nigeria – Beyond the election transition. As Nigeria heads to the polls on 25 February, economic headwinds are intensifying. The next government will need to address
A more diverse – and robust – market Over the past three decades the gold market has undergone extraordinary change. The structure and dynamics of demand and supply are vastly different from those of thirty years ago. Yet amid this
Global Asset Allocation: The View From Europe After outpacing the rest of the world by more than 170% over the past nine years between 2013 and 2021, US equity markets notably lagged the rest of the world last year. Despite
The natural world is in crisis: We are losing biodiversity – the very fabric of life – at an alarming rate. Investors would do a poor job if they did not seek to preserve the fabric that is at the
The rating of Greece continues to improve. This is anything but a surprise. This is linked to cyclical aspects and in particular to the rebound after the crisis of the last decade. But there are also some developments, particularly on
Risk markets have bounced meaningfully from their lows in October, helped by peaking inflation, falling rates volatility, an end to the dollar’s rally, and China’s reopening. However, there are many challenges ahead and we are still positioned for a hard
We maintain our neutral stance on equities as although peaking interest rates take some pressure off valuations, risks remain
Tactical Asset Allocation Outlook ■ Many of our equity signals note an improving environment, but we continue to closely monitor the extent to which an economic slowdown is priced into earnings. ■ We maintain our overweight view on fixed income. While
Veel beleggers lijken verrast door de beter dan verwachte economische cijfers die we in grote delen van de wereld zien. Door de vele doemverhalen gingen zij ervan uit dat een recessie onvermijdelijk zou zijn, maar dat lijkt voorlopig niet het
Given the resiliency shown by economic indicators, we rule out the risk for a severe recession both in the US and Europe. The outlook for a recession scenario has weakened thanks to strong buffers, such as still present excess savings
In January markets rebounded, providing a window of opportunity to capture returns. Towards the end of December, we began increasing risk to take advantage of this, and continued to add to risk assets during January. We see 2023 as a
Risky assets began the year with a bang, driven in part by a shift in interest rates that we see as partly contradictory. The markets seem to be pricing in key rate cuts by central banks as early as the
The better outlook on the growth/inflation mix for the year ahead has quickly been incorporated by risky assets, from equities to high yield via credit markets. As the extreme investor pessimism of last October is now in the distant past,
The surge in equities and fall in long-term bond yields so far this year suggest investors have been buying into the idea of ‘immaculate disinflation’ — that easing inflation would be painless for growth in 2023. Such market moves could
Key themes 1. Expectations for corporate earnings continue to decline, however, in our view, earnings growth …
Inflation rates are falling, first economic indicators are already rising again. This feeds hopes that the economy will land softly, and a recession can be avoided. We are of a different opinion. Therefore, we tactically prefer bonds to equities. What
Markets have continued the very strong trend that started in November last year, but several things have also changed this year, including but not limited to: • The decline in government bond yields which led to a quick recovery in
Investing is a profession that can resemble predicting the future. Investors are made to think they need a crystal ball, when of course, no crystal ball exists. In today’s environment, even the most clairvoyant crystal ball would likely be cloudy.
Visie op asset allocatie: Na het moeizame 2022 gingen financiële markten in 2023 voortvarend van start. In feite een voortzetting van het optimisme sinds oktober vorig jaar, dat alleen in december even werd onderbroken. Lagere inflatie en de hoop dat
Financial markets have started the year with an ‘everything rally’ as fears over the potential for an imminent recession – concerns we argued were misplaced – have receded. There are two key drivers of the price action, in our view.
With the energy crunch easing and China heading for a reopening bounce, the euro area will likely escape a widely anticipated winter recession. • Yet the Fed’s fast monetary tightening will take its toll on a shallow US midyear …
Our monthly market analysis and positioning
The Union Investment Committee (UIC) reaffirmed its neutral risk positioning (RoRo meter at level 3) at its meeting on 21 February. It did not make any changes to the strategic portfolio during the regular meeting either. However, the committee had
Uncertainty over growth, inflation and corporate earnings persists, even though there has been a mild improvement on the economic front. These trends underscore the need to be active and well diversified. In equities, investors should stay cautious and consider playing
As shown in the following graph, fixed income markets have experienced one of the most, if not the most, turbulent period in history. To put it in perspective, US Treasuries returned -9.1% during the first six months of 20221 ,
The regime of greater economic and market volatility is playing out – and not going away. Central banks won’t ride to the rescue in recession, contrary to what investors have come to expect. This regime requires a new investment playbook.
The first month of 2023 was quite the contrast to the dismal financial market returns posted last year. We have seen a growing belief form in markets that inflation—the prime driver of last year’s pain—has not just peaked but is
Growth prospects look to be improving—a sharp shift from late 2022 when the markets had strong conviction that a first half slowdown was to be followed by a better second half. Yes, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) has tightened aggressively,
European equity markets made a very strong start to the year, supported by easing inflation figures, both in the US and Europe, the surprisingly quick end to the zero-Covid policy in China and the relatively mild winter that has defused
Risky assets began the year with a bang, driven in part by a shift in interest rates that we see as partly contradictory. The markets seem to be pricing in key rate cuts by central banks as early as the
China’s reponening bolsters our scenario of a soft landing. The start of the year brought relief for some of the risks overshadowing the world's economy. First, the rapid ending of Covid lockdowns in China should prompt a near automatic rebound
Fed chairman Jerome Powell himself recognised that disinflation had begun so the Fed could be nearing the end of its tough monetary tightening programme. The ECB’s intentions are harder to read but we note that the bank is trying to
In focus Cyber risk is one of the most immediate and financially material risks that organizations face today. Those that fail to implement robust management on cybersecurity may be less resilient in the long term. In this paper we undertake
Additionality can accelerate and strengthen impact investing. KEY INSIGHTS In the world of impact investing, additionality helps to generate positive outcomes that may not otherwise occur without the value of engagement or capital investment. It furthers the drive toward positive impact by
First things first, the seasonals With the most recent release of nonfarm payrolls, I saw a lot of the focus placed on the seasonal adjustment being the source of upside and I believe this misses the point. Yes, seasonals likely
Macro Outlook This week marks a year since Russia’s President Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine, an event that pushed the global economy into a series of geopolitical and economic shocks, the consequences of which will have long lasting effects. Due to
Global tactical asset allocation views brief After a weak 2022, the grass seemed a lot greener at the start of 2023, with equity and bond markets roaring back strongly. The optimism was fueled by a continuation of weaker headline inflation
State of the Markets H1 2023 We continue to believe in the innovation economy in the face of adversity. Challenging market conditions are periods for building, particularly for startups. Today, founders have time to slow down, focus on product market
In this Q&A, Lisa Beauvilain and Chris Dodwell explain why biodiversity loss is critically important for investors to consider, and how investment opportunities are arising from reducing pressure on the natural world. Why does Impax see biodiversity loss as a
Five perspectives on ESG in bond investing: Views from our fixed income team Equity investors are often associated with ESG-related discussions and considerations. Bond investors can also have unique and valuable perspectives on ESG matters. Bond investors have access to
In this report, we explore the meaning of positive nutrition, how achievable global nutritional goals are and, ultimately, how we invest in nutrition that is positive for people and planet. When we examine the nutrition theme, it is evident that
BIS Bulletin 67 Key takeaways The strength of the link between money growth and inflation depends on the inflation regime: it is one-to-one when inflation is high and virtually non-existent when it is low. A link can also be seen
Part 4: Taxonomy What is the EU environmental taxonomy? The European Union’s environmental taxonomy is a classification system that translates the EU’s climate and environmental objectives into criteria for economic activities to be considered “environmentally sustainable” or “green”. For an
Biodiversity, human activity and corporates Biodiversity is part of the Earth’s natural capital and considered the cornerstone of a well-functioning planet. The many benefits to humans provided by natural capital are often integral to the provision of clean drinking water,
