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Zoekresultaat voor "recession"

Is a US recession around the corner?

Is a US recession around the corner?

🕔10:05, 19.sep 2019

Recession worries intensified last week, with forecasters downgrading expectations for growth, earnings, and the outlook for US Treasury yields. We now expect US economic growth to slow to 1.3% next year, down from 2.3% this year, with the trade conflict

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Germany may well already be in recession

Germany may well already be in recession

🕔11:45, 11.sep 2019

German Industrial production (IP) fell again in July. If IP stabilises over the rest of the summer, over the third quarter (Q3) the quarterly decline would reach 1.6%, only marginally less bad than in Q2 (-1.9%). This makes the Bundesbank’s

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Economic Commentary: Europe Flirts With Recession

Economic Commentary: Europe Flirts With Recession

🕔16:44, 5.sep 2019

Global trade tensions are taking their toll, leaving Europe struggling for solutions. The city of Biarritz is part of the pays de Basque, which spans southwestern France and north-central Spain. The Basques’ unique cultural identity has often led to separatist

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Yield curve inversion: Recession not so soon

Yield curve inversion: Recession not so soon

🕔09:27, 4.sep 2019

What is the US Treasury (UST) yield curve and why is it important? The UST yield curve is a visual representation of borrowing costs across different periods of time. An upward slope is an indication that investors demand higher yields

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Market Flash: Will the inverted yield curve lead to recession? (PDF)

Market Flash: Will the inverted yield curve lead to recession? (PDF)

🕔15:41, 23.aug 2019

 Historically, this has often been the case. But this time may be different. By Kristina Hooper, Brian Levitt and Timothy Horsburgh The US Treasury yield curve, specifically the spread between the 10-year US Treasury rate and the 2-year US Treasury

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We do not view the inversion of the yield curve as a recessionary signal

We do not view the inversion of the yield curve as a recessionary signal

🕔11:03, 21.aug 2019

The “risk-off” mood in global markets deepened last week – as global government bond yields plunged to historical lows and the inversion of part of the U.S. Treasury curve sparked recession fears. Perceived safe-haven assets such as gold rallied. We

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Will a trade war push the U.S. economy into recession?

Will a trade war push the U.S. economy into recession?

🕔17:50, 19.aug 2019

The past few weeks have seen a fundamentally changed investment environment in the U.S.. Since July 31, the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates for the first time in a decade, the 8/19/2019 Will a trade war push the U.S.

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Germany heading for recession

Germany heading for recession

🕔17:45, 16.aug 2019

Germany’s GDP contracted by 0.1% qoq in 2019Q2, down from +0.4% in Q1. No further details have been published yet, but we refer to the press release of the Statistisches Bundesamt for visibility. GDP growth was weighed down by the

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Is this tariff different? Weighing the effect of trade escalation on recession risk

Is this tariff different? Weighing the effect of trade escalation on recession risk

🕔14:28, 13.aug 2019

The plunge in U.S. Treasury yields, down 35 basis points over the past two weeks, indicates growing investor unease about the resilience of the economy to seemingly unrelenting policy shocks. Those concerns are not irrational. Although we have argued on

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Prevent horizon: US sidesteps recession for now

Prevent horizon: US sidesteps recession for now

🕔12:50, 26.jul 2019

US economic vulnerability in need of modest support The US economy has unsurprisingly kept slowing down following 2018’s fiscal-fuelled 12-year record-high growth. With US/China trade tensions easing a notch at the Osaka G20 Summit in late June, monthly “hard” data

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July Investment Strategy – Prevent horizon: US sidesteps recession for now

July Investment Strategy – Prevent horizon: US sidesteps recession for now

🕔18:07, 24.jul 2019

The US economic slowdown remains modest – the world’s largest economy looks set to avoid a recession in the next 12 months, thanks to the Fed’s monetary easing Eurozone macro data and easing in the US, should lead the ECB

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Is a US Recession Coming? Evaluating the Signs for Fixed Income Investors

Is a US Recession Coming? Evaluating the Signs for Fixed Income Investors

🕔18:31, 19.jul 2019

Fixed income markets are fixating on one simple question: Is the US heading toward a recession anytime soon? The answer, of course, isn’t so simple. While recession concerns have lessened so far this year compared with the high anxiety investors

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Future of Europe – the Eurozone and the next recession

Future of Europe – the Eurozone and the next recession

🕔13:02, 16.apr 2019

UBS House View Weekly — 15 April 2019 “Whatever it takes.” These words of Mario Draghi’s marked the inflection point in the last recession and paved the way to the present economic recovery. But as the euro celebrates its 20th

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When Credit Dries Up: Job Losses in the Great Recession

When Credit Dries Up: Job Losses in the Great Recession

🕔14:39, 18.mrt 2019

Abstract We study whether the solvency problems of Spain’s weakest banks in the Great Recession have caused employment losses outside the financial sector. Our analysis focuses on the set of banks that were bailed out by the Spanish authorities. Data

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US slowdown to dodge recession

US slowdown to dodge recession

🕔01:02, 18.feb 2019

Monthly Investment Strategy Our probabilistic model sees rising risks but not an actual US recession over the coming 12 months. We reduce our US GDP growth forecast to 2.2% for 2019, further below the 2.5% consensus but still above potential

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US slowdown to dodge recession

US slowdown to dodge recession

🕔02:04, 26.jan 2019

Keep Calm: the US should dodge a recession in the next 12 months Mindful of the sharp tightening of financial conditions since the publication of our 2019 Outlook1 , we have updated our probabilistic model of US recessions. Clearly, our

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US to avoid recession, for now

US to avoid recession, for now

🕔02:04, 25.jan 2019

Tighter financial conditions still point to material softening Tighter financial conditions around the turn of the year have raised fears of a US recession. Estimated recession probability indicators remain below thresholds reached before previous downturns. For now, we do not

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When Credit Dries Up: Job Losses in the Great Recession

When Credit Dries Up: Job Losses in the Great Recession

🕔13:15, 20.nov 2018

We study whether the solvency problems of Spain’s weakest banks in the Great Recession have caused employment losses outside the financial sector. Our analysis focuses on the set of banks that were bailed out by the Spanish authorities. Data from

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2019 outlook: war, inflation, recession?

2019 outlook: war, inflation, recession?

🕔11:02, 19.nov 2018

The Big Picture  In considering the outlook for 2019 we take a step back and analyse the long-term backdrop. This reaffirms an ongoing preference for equity-like assets despite diminished long-term growth potential. Events that typically cause a divergence from that

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Why is everyone talking about the next recession?

Why is everyone talking about the next recession?

🕔01:02, 30.okt 2018

Regional view – United States  US economic conditions are unusually strong at the moment and recession risks appear lower than normal. However, now is a good time to think about the risks and to prepare your portfolio accordingly. 

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Is the yield curve pointing to recession?

Is the yield curve pointing to recession?

🕔15:02, 28.okt 2018

What yield curves and credit markets reveal about future growth A tightening of US monetary policy has resulted in the US yield curve becoming flatter. With the Federal Reserve (Fed) expected to continue its policy of gradual rate increases over

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What yield curves tell us about recession risks

What yield curves tell us about recession risks

🕔13:02, 22.okt 2018

Summary – Key messages The US economy is growing at full speed. Inflation is already at the Federal Reserve’s target with convincing signs that nominal wages are accelerating. We therefore see little to halt the US monetary tightening Despite 10Y

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The U.S. Labor Market Through a Different Lens, Is the Yield Curve Signaling A Recession

The U.S. Labor Market Through a Different Lens, Is the Yield Curve Signaling A Recession

🕔11:02, 11.jul 2017

The U.S. economy completed eight years of business expansion last week. The jobless rate is at a cycle low and hiring conditions are favorable. But wage growth is far below levels consistent with full employment, and inflation is still below

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Is now the time for value?

Is now the time for value?

🕔10:28, 19.sep 2019

While September seems to have brought calmer markets at the headline level, beneath the surface this has not been the case. The past few weeks have seen momentum and growth trades come under pressure, with value outperforming growth by 4.1%

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This Month’s Topic Trade War Escalation And Impact On World Trade And Economic Growth

This Month’s Topic Trade War Escalation And Impact On World Trade And Economic Growth

🕔15:10, 18.sep 2019

The summer months have been eventful. On the (geo)-political level, the sources of tension have multiplied globally. On the economic front, the growth momentum has weakened further, confirming the downward trend observed worldwide since April, with the deepening of the

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