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Recession 2020— Deep but Short

Recession 2020— Deep but Short

🕔06:33, 2.Apr 2020

KEY INSIGHTS I’m anticipating a contraction in economic activity over the first two quarters of 2020 that roughly matches the longer decline over the financial crisis.  When shuttered industries and shut‑in workers can start the transition back to normal life—probably

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Coronavirus brings recession to CEE

Coronavirus brings recession to CEE

🕔08:05, 24.Mar 2020

Eurozone in recession, CEE as well The spread of coronavirus to Europe and exponentially rising number of infected people forced the introduction of preventive measures to reduce its speed. CEE countries have done so at a relatively early stage, but

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Recession in Eurozone to weigh further on CEE growth

Recession in Eurozone to weigh further on CEE growth

🕔13:48, 17.Mar 2020

CEE Market Insights  This week, we will see the inflation rate in Croatia as well as labor market data. In Poland, retail sales and industrial growth in February will be published; however, the impact of the coronavirus is still likely

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The recessionary cloud is about to lift

The recessionary cloud is about to lift

🕔16:58, 20.Jan 2020

Take the lead – Global Insights 2020 The dominant theme as 2019 began – following three months of steep falls on world markets – was recession. But this threat was not obvious to us. Markets were pricing a downturn that

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The recessionary cloud is about to lift

The recessionary cloud is about to lift

🕔17:35, 11.Dec 2019

The dominant theme as 2019 began – following three months of steep falls on world markets – was recession. But this threat was not obvious to us. Markets were pricing a downturn that we could not see in the data

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The Next Recession

The Next Recession

🕔13:44, 7.Dec 2019

Economic Outlook Presentation Recession Odds Recession Triggers Road to Recession Policy Response How Severe a Downturn  

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Reduced Recession Risk

Reduced Recession Risk

🕔09:33, 3.Dec 2019

Investment Perspective The short-term drivers of market performance are not always clear, but an improving outlook toward economic growth seems to be a clear contributor to the recent rally in equities. At the same time, a rapidly slowing manufacturing sector

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Recession Risk Judged To Be Moderate

Recession Risk Judged To Be Moderate

🕔10:05, 29.Nov 2019

A moderation of NIPA corporate profits may well imply lower GDP growth in 2020. However, we do not expect a recession in the next twelve months. The Fed should stay neutral into 2020; we expect its communication to remain slightly

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Trade Troubles Persist as Central Banks Resist Recession

Trade Troubles Persist as Central Banks Resist Recession

🕔18:44, 18.Nov 2019

Global equities rose in September, recapturing some of August’s losses. By contrast, so-called “safe-haven” fixed income asset classes, such as long-maturity U.S. Treasurys, declined, giving back a small portion of their prior month returns. The advance in stocks was led

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UK economy rebounds to avoid recession

UK economy rebounds to avoid recession

🕔16:54, 14.Nov 2019

The first release of UK GDP for the third quarter shows the economy avoided a technical recession. Real GDP growth was 0.3% quarter-on-quarter compared to -0.2% in the second quarter, although the latest figure did disappoint consensus expectations of 0.4%.

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Trade Troubles Persist as Central Banks Resist Recession

Trade Troubles Persist as Central Banks Resist Recession

🕔08:51, 1.Nov 2019

Voya Multi-Asset Perspectives Global equities rose in September, recapturing some of August’s losses. By contrast, so-called “safe-haven” fixed income asset classes, such as long-maturity U.S. Treasurys, declined, giving back a small portion of their prior month returns. The advance in

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Macro Weekly It takes courage to forecast a recession

Macro Weekly It takes courage to forecast a recession

🕔11:55, 10.Oct 2019

Economists are not very good at forecasting recessions. I really should rephrase that. Economists are very good at ‘forecasting’ recessions, but usually only when the downturn has actually already started. They (perhaps I should say: we) are not good at

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Global markets q4 outlook: recession or resilience?

Global markets q4 outlook: recession or resilience?

🕔11:32, 9.Oct 2019

Over the final quarter of 2019, the tug of war between economic resilience and recession risk is likely to dominate market outcomes and asset allocation decision making. The asset allocation committee outlines its views below.  Over the past three months,

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The Risk of a Global Recession is increasing in 2020

The Risk of a Global Recession is increasing in 2020

🕔14:48, 7.Oct 2019

We reduced hedging positions on us equities while remaining hedged globally. Within the equity allocation, we bought highyielding stocks, focusing on defensive sectors. We bought us sovereign bonds against the global backdrop of falling yields. We left positions unhedged in

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Rising recession risks

Rising recession risks

🕔18:28, 23.Sep 2019

With the trade war escalating, the risk that the conflict will further dampen business confidence and capex is increasing. Whether this will lead to an outright recession will depend on the resilience of the consumer, who has so far been

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Is a US recession around the corner?

Is a US recession around the corner?

🕔10:05, 19.Sep 2019

Recession worries intensified last week, with forecasters downgrading expectations for growth, earnings, and the outlook for US Treasury yields. We now expect US economic growth to slow to 1.3% next year, down from 2.3% this year, with the trade conflict

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Germany may well already be in recession

Germany may well already be in recession

🕔11:45, 11.Sep 2019

German Industrial production (IP) fell again in July. If IP stabilises over the rest of the summer, over the third quarter (Q3) the quarterly decline would reach 1.6%, only marginally less bad than in Q2 (-1.9%). This makes the Bundesbank’s

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Economic Commentary: Europe Flirts With Recession

Economic Commentary: Europe Flirts With Recession

🕔16:44, 5.Sep 2019

Global trade tensions are taking their toll, leaving Europe struggling for solutions. The city of Biarritz is part of the pays de Basque, which spans southwestern France and north-central Spain. The Basques’ unique cultural identity has often led to separatist

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Yield curve inversion: Recession not so soon

Yield curve inversion: Recession not so soon

🕔09:27, 4.Sep 2019

What is the US Treasury (UST) yield curve and why is it important? The UST yield curve is a visual representation of borrowing costs across different periods of time. An upward slope is an indication that investors demand higher yields

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Market Flash: Will the inverted yield curve lead to recession? (PDF)

Market Flash: Will the inverted yield curve lead to recession? (PDF)

🕔15:41, 23.Aug 2019

 Historically, this has often been the case. But this time may be different. By Kristina Hooper, Brian Levitt and Timothy Horsburgh The US Treasury yield curve, specifically the spread between the 10-year US Treasury rate and the 2-year US Treasury

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We do not view the inversion of the yield curve as a recessionary signal

We do not view the inversion of the yield curve as a recessionary signal

🕔11:03, 21.Aug 2019

The “risk-off” mood in global markets deepened last week – as global government bond yields plunged to historical lows and the inversion of part of the U.S. Treasury curve sparked recession fears. Perceived safe-haven assets such as gold rallied. We

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Will a trade war push the U.S. economy into recession?

Will a trade war push the U.S. economy into recession?

🕔17:50, 19.Aug 2019

The past few weeks have seen a fundamentally changed investment environment in the U.S.. Since July 31, the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates for the first time in a decade, the 8/19/2019 Will a trade war push the U.S.

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Germany heading for recession

Germany heading for recession

🕔17:45, 16.Aug 2019

Germany’s GDP contracted by 0.1% qoq in 2019Q2, down from +0.4% in Q1. No further details have been published yet, but we refer to the press release of the Statistisches Bundesamt for visibility. GDP growth was weighed down by the

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Is this tariff different? Weighing the effect of trade escalation on recession risk

Is this tariff different? Weighing the effect of trade escalation on recession risk

🕔14:28, 13.Aug 2019

The plunge in U.S. Treasury yields, down 35 basis points over the past two weeks, indicates growing investor unease about the resilience of the economy to seemingly unrelenting policy shocks. Those concerns are not irrational. Although we have argued on

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Prevent horizon: US sidesteps recession for now

Prevent horizon: US sidesteps recession for now

🕔12:50, 26.Jul 2019

US economic vulnerability in need of modest support The US economy has unsurprisingly kept slowing down following 2018’s fiscal-fuelled 12-year record-high growth. With US/China trade tensions easing a notch at the Osaka G20 Summit in late June, monthly “hard” data

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