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Zoekresultaat voor "recession"

Trade Troubles Persist as Central Banks Resist Recession

Trade Troubles Persist as Central Banks Resist Recession

🕔08:51, 1.nov 2019

Voya Multi-Asset Perspectives Global equities rose in September, recapturing some of August’s losses. By contrast, so-called “safe-haven” fixed income asset classes, such as long-maturity U.S. Treasurys, declined, giving back a small portion of their prior month returns. The advance in

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Macro Weekly It takes courage to forecast a recession

Macro Weekly It takes courage to forecast a recession

🕔11:55, 10.okt 2019

Economists are not very good at forecasting recessions. I really should rephrase that. Economists are very good at ‘forecasting’ recessions, but usually only when the downturn has actually already started. They (perhaps I should say: we) are not good at

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Global markets q4 outlook: recession or resilience?

Global markets q4 outlook: recession or resilience?

🕔11:32, 9.okt 2019

Over the final quarter of 2019, the tug of war between economic resilience and recession risk is likely to dominate market outcomes and asset allocation decision making. The asset allocation committee outlines its views below.  Over the past three months,

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The Risk of a Global Recession is increasing in 2020

The Risk of a Global Recession is increasing in 2020

🕔14:48, 7.okt 2019

We reduced hedging positions on us equities while remaining hedged globally. Within the equity allocation, we bought highyielding stocks, focusing on defensive sectors. We bought us sovereign bonds against the global backdrop of falling yields. We left positions unhedged in

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Rising recession risks

Rising recession risks

🕔18:28, 23.sep 2019

With the trade war escalating, the risk that the conflict will further dampen business confidence and capex is increasing. Whether this will lead to an outright recession will depend on the resilience of the consumer, who has so far been

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Is a US recession around the corner?

Is a US recession around the corner?

🕔10:05, 19.sep 2019

Recession worries intensified last week, with forecasters downgrading expectations for growth, earnings, and the outlook for US Treasury yields. We now expect US economic growth to slow to 1.3% next year, down from 2.3% this year, with the trade conflict

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Germany may well already be in recession

Germany may well already be in recession

🕔11:45, 11.sep 2019

German Industrial production (IP) fell again in July. If IP stabilises over the rest of the summer, over the third quarter (Q3) the quarterly decline would reach 1.6%, only marginally less bad than in Q2 (-1.9%). This makes the Bundesbank’s

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Economic Commentary: Europe Flirts With Recession

Economic Commentary: Europe Flirts With Recession

🕔16:44, 5.sep 2019

Global trade tensions are taking their toll, leaving Europe struggling for solutions. The city of Biarritz is part of the pays de Basque, which spans southwestern France and north-central Spain. The Basques’ unique cultural identity has often led to separatist

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Yield curve inversion: Recession not so soon

Yield curve inversion: Recession not so soon

🕔09:27, 4.sep 2019

What is the US Treasury (UST) yield curve and why is it important? The UST yield curve is a visual representation of borrowing costs across different periods of time. An upward slope is an indication that investors demand higher yields

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Market Flash: Will the inverted yield curve lead to recession? (PDF)

Market Flash: Will the inverted yield curve lead to recession? (PDF)

🕔15:41, 23.aug 2019

 Historically, this has often been the case. But this time may be different. By Kristina Hooper, Brian Levitt and Timothy Horsburgh The US Treasury yield curve, specifically the spread between the 10-year US Treasury rate and the 2-year US Treasury

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We do not view the inversion of the yield curve as a recessionary signal

We do not view the inversion of the yield curve as a recessionary signal

🕔11:03, 21.aug 2019

The “risk-off” mood in global markets deepened last week – as global government bond yields plunged to historical lows and the inversion of part of the U.S. Treasury curve sparked recession fears. Perceived safe-haven assets such as gold rallied. We

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Will a trade war push the U.S. economy into recession?

Will a trade war push the U.S. economy into recession?

🕔17:50, 19.aug 2019

The past few weeks have seen a fundamentally changed investment environment in the U.S.. Since July 31, the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates for the first time in a decade, the 8/19/2019 Will a trade war push the U.S.

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Germany heading for recession

Germany heading for recession

🕔17:45, 16.aug 2019

Germany’s GDP contracted by 0.1% qoq in 2019Q2, down from +0.4% in Q1. No further details have been published yet, but we refer to the press release of the Statistisches Bundesamt for visibility. GDP growth was weighed down by the

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Is this tariff different? Weighing the effect of trade escalation on recession risk

Is this tariff different? Weighing the effect of trade escalation on recession risk

🕔14:28, 13.aug 2019

The plunge in U.S. Treasury yields, down 35 basis points over the past two weeks, indicates growing investor unease about the resilience of the economy to seemingly unrelenting policy shocks. Those concerns are not irrational. Although we have argued on

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Prevent horizon: US sidesteps recession for now

Prevent horizon: US sidesteps recession for now

🕔12:50, 26.jul 2019

US economic vulnerability in need of modest support The US economy has unsurprisingly kept slowing down following 2018’s fiscal-fuelled 12-year record-high growth. With US/China trade tensions easing a notch at the Osaka G20 Summit in late June, monthly “hard” data

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July Investment Strategy – Prevent horizon: US sidesteps recession for now

July Investment Strategy – Prevent horizon: US sidesteps recession for now

🕔18:07, 24.jul 2019

The US economic slowdown remains modest – the world’s largest economy looks set to avoid a recession in the next 12 months, thanks to the Fed’s monetary easing Eurozone macro data and easing in the US, should lead the ECB

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Is a US Recession Coming? Evaluating the Signs for Fixed Income Investors

Is a US Recession Coming? Evaluating the Signs for Fixed Income Investors

🕔18:31, 19.jul 2019

Fixed income markets are fixating on one simple question: Is the US heading toward a recession anytime soon? The answer, of course, isn’t so simple. While recession concerns have lessened so far this year compared with the high anxiety investors

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Future of Europe – the Eurozone and the next recession

Future of Europe – the Eurozone and the next recession

🕔13:02, 16.apr 2019

UBS House View Weekly — 15 April 2019 “Whatever it takes.” These words of Mario Draghi’s marked the inflection point in the last recession and paved the way to the present economic recovery. But as the euro celebrates its 20th

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When Credit Dries Up: Job Losses in the Great Recession

When Credit Dries Up: Job Losses in the Great Recession

🕔14:39, 18.mrt 2019

Abstract We study whether the solvency problems of Spain’s weakest banks in the Great Recession have caused employment losses outside the financial sector. Our analysis focuses on the set of banks that were bailed out by the Spanish authorities. Data

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US slowdown to dodge recession

US slowdown to dodge recession

🕔01:02, 18.feb 2019

Monthly Investment Strategy Our probabilistic model sees rising risks but not an actual US recession over the coming 12 months. We reduce our US GDP growth forecast to 2.2% for 2019, further below the 2.5% consensus but still above potential

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US slowdown to dodge recession

US slowdown to dodge recession

🕔02:04, 26.jan 2019

Keep Calm: the US should dodge a recession in the next 12 months Mindful of the sharp tightening of financial conditions since the publication of our 2019 Outlook1 , we have updated our probabilistic model of US recessions. Clearly, our

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US to avoid recession, for now

US to avoid recession, for now

🕔02:04, 25.jan 2019

Tighter financial conditions still point to material softening Tighter financial conditions around the turn of the year have raised fears of a US recession. Estimated recession probability indicators remain below thresholds reached before previous downturns. For now, we do not

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When Credit Dries Up: Job Losses in the Great Recession

When Credit Dries Up: Job Losses in the Great Recession

🕔13:15, 20.nov 2018

We study whether the solvency problems of Spain’s weakest banks in the Great Recession have caused employment losses outside the financial sector. Our analysis focuses on the set of banks that were bailed out by the Spanish authorities. Data from

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2019 outlook: war, inflation, recession?

2019 outlook: war, inflation, recession?

🕔11:02, 19.nov 2018

The Big Picture  In considering the outlook for 2019 we take a step back and analyse the long-term backdrop. This reaffirms an ongoing preference for equity-like assets despite diminished long-term growth potential. Events that typically cause a divergence from that

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Why is everyone talking about the next recession?

Why is everyone talking about the next recession?

🕔01:02, 30.okt 2018

Regional view – United States  US economic conditions are unusually strong at the moment and recession risks appear lower than normal. However, now is a good time to think about the risks and to prepare your portfolio accordingly. 

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Deze week in "Multi-Asset Solutions Weekly Strategy Report" van @JPMorganAM een helder plaatje dat #EmergingMarketDebt toch wel heel mooi in een multi-asset portfolio past. Maar het is ook een beetje #confirmationbias 😀-> https://t.co/7b6yAG8Wv4 #assetallocation via
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