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Don’t Forget this Important Fact about the Yield Curve

Don’t Forget this Important Fact about the Yield Curve

🕔09:46, 18.Sep 2019

The yield curve regained the limelight in August when yields on ten-year Treasury notes dipped below yields on two-year notes, the dreaded “inversion” that caused markets to sell off. Remember, an inverted yield curve represents fear of a recession; it

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What yield curve inversion means for credit investors

What yield curve inversion means for credit investors

🕔08:50, 16.Sep 2019

The US 2s10s curve inverted in August, other curves had already inverted

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Weekly Market Update: Inverted Yield Curve, New Tariffs this Week

Weekly Market Update: Inverted Yield Curve, New Tariffs this Week

🕔08:02, 6.Sep 2019

The U.S. yield curve inverted last Tuesday, raising worries of recession, while the trade war escalates this week as China and the U.S. exchange taris. Despite increased concerns on the U.S. yield curve, global equities gained 2.0% last week with

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Yield curve inversion: Recession not so soon

Yield curve inversion: Recession not so soon

🕔09:27, 4.Sep 2019

What is the US Treasury (UST) yield curve and why is it important? The UST yield curve is a visual representation of borrowing costs across different periods of time. An upward slope is an indication that investors demand higher yields

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Market Flash: Will the inverted yield curve lead to recession? (PDF)

Market Flash: Will the inverted yield curve lead to recession? (PDF)

🕔15:41, 23.Aug 2019

 Historically, this has often been the case. But this time may be different. By Kristina Hooper, Brian Levitt and Timothy Horsburgh The US Treasury yield curve, specifically the spread between the 10-year US Treasury rate and the 2-year US Treasury

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Making sense of the US yield curve

Making sense of the US yield curve

🕔13:55, 22.Aug 2019

The 10-year US Treasury yield recently dropped below that of the two-year for the first time since 2008. While this is often a harbinger of economic gloom, we do not expect an imminent recession although the pressure on the Fed

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Beyond the yield curve: Other economic indicators to watch

Beyond the yield curve: Other economic indicators to watch

🕔10:41, 22.Aug 2019

Last week, the US Treasury yield curve, specifically the spread between the 10-year US Treasury rate and the 2-year US Treasury rate, briefly inverted. An inverted yield curve is considered to be a good predictor of recession, and so markets

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We do not view the inversion of the yield curve as a recessionary signal

We do not view the inversion of the yield curve as a recessionary signal

🕔11:03, 21.Aug 2019

The “risk-off” mood in global markets deepened last week – as global government bond yields plunged to historical lows and the inversion of part of the U.S. Treasury curve sparked recession fears. Perceived safe-haven assets such as gold rallied. We

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Inverted Yield Curves and Expected Stock Returns

Inverted Yield Curves and Expected Stock Returns

🕔17:55, 16.Aug 2019

Yield curves typically slope up, with long maturity government bonds promising higher returns than short maturity bonds. Much empirical evidence says the slope of the yield curve predicts economic activity (e.g., Harvey 1988, Estrella and Hardouvelis 1989, Fama and French

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Does the yield curve inversion signal trouble ahead?

Does the yield curve inversion signal trouble ahead?

🕔15:54, 16.Aug 2019

Earlier this week, a closely-watched economic indicator, the difference in yield between the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond and the 2-year U.S. Treasury bond (2s10s), inverted. This inversion, however brief, was further evidence of investor concern over the current state of

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Treasury yield curve steepens due to Fed comments and inflation

Treasury yield curve steepens due to Fed comments and inflation

🕔09:51, 18.Jul 2019

The U.S. Treasury yield curve steepened last week. Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Powell all but ensured a rate cut in July, and markets reacted strongly to a higher-than-expected inflation reading for June. As a result, yields for maturities of two

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Are the yield curve’s predicative powers diminishing?

🕔10:20, 8.Apr 2019

The US yield curve has inverted before every recorded recession over the last five decades1, however the spate of recent and unconventional monetary policy could potentially be rendering the barometer’s predicative powers obsolete. March 2019 saw the inversion of the

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March’s yield curve inversion vs the equity rally

🕔16:29, 5.Apr 2019

Key points Global equities continue to advance with year-to-date performance now running at 14.4%, supported by the strong growth and cyclical rally March witnessed fear return with the inversion of the US treasury yield curve. We examine previous episodes and

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Is the flattening yield curve a sign of trouble ahead?

Is the flattening yield curve a sign of trouble ahead?

🕔10:46, 1.Mar 2019

“The yield curve may have lost its predictive power if it no longer provides a signal about the stance of policy” Karen Ward The US yield curve is flattening. As shown in Exhibit 1 from our Guide to the Markets,

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Who’s afraid of an inverted yield curve

Who’s afraid of an inverted yield curve

🕔13:03, 11.Dec 2018

There seems to be a lot of fear around about the prospect of the US yield curve inverting. Hardly a day goes by without another article speculating about when the curve might invert and what might happen if it does.

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Is the yield curve pointing to recession?

Is the yield curve pointing to recession?

🕔15:02, 28.Oct 2018

What yield curves and credit markets reveal about future growth A tightening of US monetary policy has resulted in the US yield curve becoming flatter. With the Federal Reserve (Fed) expected to continue its policy of gradual rate increases over

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What yield curves tell us about recession risks

What yield curves tell us about recession risks

🕔13:02, 22.Oct 2018

Summary – Key messages The US economy is growing at full speed. Inflation is already at the Federal Reserve’s target with convincing signs that nominal wages are accelerating. We therefore see little to halt the US monetary tightening Despite 10Y

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Yield Curve Dynamics

Yield Curve Dynamics

🕔15:04, 24.Aug 2018

The financial press is awash with stories highlighting the correlation between yield curve inversions, in which yields on long-term US government securities fall below the yields on short-term government debt, and recessions. So as an investor, once the curve inverts

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A different read of the U.S. yield curve

A different read of the U.S. yield curve

🕔02:08, 7.Aug 2018

BII Global weekly commentary Key points The U.S. yield curve’s recent steepening offers a reminder that global factors – such as Bank of Japan monetary policy – help shape the curve. Global stocks finished last week flat amid escalating trade

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Core yield curves decouple further

Core yield curves decouple further

🕔09:02, 26.Jun 2018

Rates market monthly review The US Federal Reserve (Fed)‘s enhanced forward guidance is over. Conversely, the European Central Bank (ECB)’s forward guidance has been strengthened. We expect the slopes of core market yield curves to continue decoupling for some time.

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Yield curve musing: The real signal

Yield curve musing: The real signal

🕔11:02, 30.Apr 2018

Inflation adjusted, curve inversion is in sight. What are the implications? The yield curve is often seen as the single best recession indicator for the US. Since a US recession also implies a peak in global equities, the current market

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Yield curve flattening could stabilise ‘temporarily’

Yield curve flattening could stabilise ‘temporarily’

🕔11:02, 16.Apr 2018

Rates market monthly review  Bond yield curves have flattened significantly in core and peripheral bond markets. The prevailing risk-off sentiment has favoured the consolidation of long term yields, together with a stabilisation of growth momentum after the euphoria seen at

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Yield curve modelling and a conceptual framework for estimating yield curves

Yield curve modelling and a conceptual framework for estimating yield curves

🕔14:20, 9.Feb 2018

Non-technical summary It is important for central banks to have reliable representations of the term structure of interest rates available. One of the main advantages of this curve is that the underlying instruments are considered free of credit risk and

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The yield curve puzzle

The yield curve puzzle

🕔11:02, 2.Feb 2018

The macro report january 2018 The outlook for U.S. and global growth remains solid in 2018. However, the relationship between the improving U.S. economy, the Fed funds rate, and the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield is somewhat of an enigma. The

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What the flattening U.S. yield curve is telling us

What the flattening U.S. yield curve is telling us

🕔13:02, 11.Dec 2017

Weekly Commentary The U.S. Treasury yield curve has flattened to decade lows, but the flatter curve is not a recessionary signal, in our view. Equity market leadership experienced an aggressive rotation last week. U.S. third-quarter growth was revised up. The

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