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Posts From Abn Amro

De zwakke valuta-broeders van opkomende markten

De zwakke valuta-broeders van opkomende markten

🕔09:46, 25.May 2020

FX Watch  Dit jaar tot nu toe zijn de valuta's van de opkomende markten verzwakt. De risicoaversie als gevolg van de impact van COVID-19 heeft geleid tot een sterke kapitaaluitstroom uit veel opkomende markten. Hierdoor verzwakten de munten. Van alle …

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Global Economic Forecasts

Global Economic Forecasts

🕔09:18, 22.May 2020

Forecasts key indicators

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Why recovery will take time

Why recovery will take time

🕔11:03, 15.May 2020

Five reasons why the recovery will take time With restrictions on economic activity starting to be lifted, and central banks and governments having put in place unprecedented stimulus, optimism is in the air. Certainly financial markets have been partying in

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The stars seem to be aligned for gold prices

The stars seem to be aligned for gold prices

🕔17:17, 24.Apr 2020

A new high in gold prices The stars seem to be aligned for gold prices Improvement in investor sentiment, aggressive monetary policy easing, ultra-low interest rates and fiscal stimulus have all supported gold prices We remain cautious and we expect

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Energy Monitor

Energy Monitor

🕔08:39, 17.Apr 2020

Strong deal but uncertainties remain The OPEC+ production cut agreement is historic  In particular, the length of the deal was a positive surprise There are many uncertainties left, though, which kept oil prices trading sideways ABN AMRO oil price forecast

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Global Monthly – Recession deeper still, but worse and better outcome possible

Global Monthly – Recession deeper still, but worse and better outcome possible

🕔16:40, 16.Apr 2020

The extension and widening of the lockdown in the Eurozone and the US has driven us to make a further downward revision of our baseline expectations for the economy in 2020. We also sketch a negative and a positive scenario,

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The High-Stake Oil Games

The High-Stake Oil Games

🕔11:31, 9.Apr 2020

Oil prices dropped to the lowest levels in 18 years before prices ballooned Since our previous Energy Monitor on 18 March, oil prices have remained very volatile, and double-digit percentage declines or gains may look like being the new normal.

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The corona shock in commodity prices

The corona shock in commodity prices

🕔13:05, 2.Apr 2020

Sharp sell-off in the CRB index and still more to come Demand shock builds on existing supply glut  The desired gold position?   

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COVID-19 impact on the Netherlands

COVID-19 impact on the Netherlands

🕔12:38, 1.Apr 2020

Short but sharp recession Our baseline scenario sees GDP contracting 3.5% Consumer spending dries up, hospitality industry hit very hard… … but offline-to-online substitution limits total fall in consumer spending to an estimated 5% in 2020 In such times as

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Energy Monitor

Energy Monitor

🕔07:44, 13.Mar 2020

OPEC and partners failed to reach a new production cut agreement Russia refused to join the OPEC meeting on reaching an agreement for a bigger production cut. As a result, the current production cut agreement (officially -1.7 mb/d + 0.4

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Brazil Watch

Brazil Watch

🕔13:30, 12.Mar 2020

2019 was another disappointing year At the beginning of 2019, we thought that after a number of years of recession and, subsequently, a very disappointing recovery, growth in Brazil would finally pick up. However, the recently published definitive figures for

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Muted optimism

Muted optimism

🕔10:07, 9.Mar 2020

Over the last few weeks, world stock markets continued to be fuelled by strong risk appe- tite and inflows. However, more recently we have seen volatility rising as news on the coronavirus is turning worse. Markets can no longer ignore

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China Outlook 2020

China Outlook 2020

🕔08:13, 9.Jan 2020

Growth to stabilise in Year of the Rat On 25 January 2020, the Year of the Rat will start. The rat is the first animal of the Chinese Zodiac and is associated with wealth and surplus. That is a bit

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Dutch-German growth gap will reverse

Dutch-German growth gap will reverse

🕔14:45, 25.Dec 2019

Germany sneezes, but no cold for the Netherlands ‘When Germany sneezes, the Netherlands catches a cold’ is an often heard phrase in the debate on the Dutch business cycle. Germany is the most important export partner of the Netherlands and

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Energy Monitor: OPEC fails to convince

Energy Monitor: OPEC fails to convince

🕔12:01, 18.Dec 2019

Last week, the OPEC has decided, together with her partners (combined OPEC+), to increase its production cut agreement. The existing agreement to lower crude production by 1.2 million barrels per day (mb/d) was raised with another 503 kb/d to a

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Lagarde, Johnson, Trump

Lagarde, Johnson, Trump

🕔07:42, 18.Dec 2019

ECB president Christine Lagarde was comfortable in her new role. Nobody had expected a change in the ECB’s monetary policy, but everybody was interested to see how she would handle the press conference following her first meeting in charge of

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Macro Weekly

Macro Weekly

🕔08:55, 16.Dec 2019

We published a global 2020 Outlook last week instead of a weekly. I argued that the global economy will remain weak- ish in the short term, but show improvement in the course of 2020. If my assessment is right we

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Precious Metals Outlook December 2019

Precious Metals Outlook December 2019

🕔08:56, 13.Dec 2019

Precious metal prices have had a very strong year. Palladium had a stellar performance, rising by more than 47%. Gold and silver rose substantially above our year-end forecasts of USD 1,400 and US 18 per ounce, respectively, and platinum prices

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Outlook Netherlands 2020

Outlook Netherlands 2020

🕔16:05, 12.Dec 2019

Economic growth set to slow further: from 1.7% in 2019 to just under 1% in 2020 The Dutch economy managed to continue growing at a stable pace in the first three quarters of 2019. Gross domestic product (GDP) achieved growth

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Last chance for Remain?

Last chance for Remain?

🕔07:44, 27.Nov 2019

The UK votes in a general election on 12 December. Polls point to a Conservative victory, but another hung parliament is also possible In any case, the risk of a disorderly Brexit is now very low With a Conservative majority,

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Macro Weekly – Weak Chinese data suggest trade deal crucial

Macro Weekly – Weak Chinese data suggest trade deal crucial

🕔17:52, 20.Nov 2019

My colleague Arjen van Dijkhuizen commented on ‘hard’ Chinese data already: here. Industrial production growth fell back to 4.7% yoy in October, down from 5.8% in September. Retail sales growth fell back to 7.2% yoy from 7.8% and investment in

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Softs Asia remains important growth market for cocoa, sugar and coffee

Softs Asia remains important growth market for cocoa, sugar and coffee

🕔14:02, 20.Nov 2019

Asia remains an important growth market for cocoa, sugar and coffee and demand on this continent will grow the most in the coming years. China and India account for a particularly large share of the demand. Although demand is increasing

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Slightly more positive on stocks

Slightly more positive on stocks

🕔17:51, 18.Nov 2019

The break in the clouds that the ABN AMRO Investment Committee glimpsed a couple weeks ago in macroeconomic and market data has been realised in the form of stabilisation, if not outright improvement. The Investment Committee therefore decided to increase

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BRICS Economies & Commodities in the Spotlight

BRICS Economies & Commodities in the Spotlight

🕔12:33, 18.Nov 2019

An Emerging Commodity Coalition Why this report? Regardless of size in global GDP, the BRICS are responsible for almost half of consumption and production of commodities. This makes BRICS an interesting topic to address. But the BRICS will face some

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Commodity price trends remain mixed in the short term

Commodity price trends remain mixed in the short term

🕔07:30, 15.Nov 2019

 Over the past month, the CRB index rose by almost 2%, which was mainly due to the price gains in oil and gas. Going forward, higher geopolitical tensions could push prices higher. Industrial metal prices remained soft, while precious metal

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