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Artikelen van Abn Amro

Low interest rates drive housing market

Low interest rates drive housing market

🕔14:46, 21.okt 2019

The latest housing market data slightly exceeded our expectations. The annualised transaction volume has more or less stabilised since early 2019. Prices too have advanced a bit more strongly than foreseen. These better-than-anticipated figures have led us to slightly raise

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A sudden improvement on Brexit and US-China trade talks?

A sudden improvement on Brexit and US-China trade talks?

🕔12:54, 17.okt 2019

Positive developments can be reported about Brexit and the US-China conflict, two issues that have caused a lot of uncertainty during the last 12 months. In turn this uncertainty has caused a significant amount of damage to the global economy.

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Macro Weekly It takes courage to forecast a recession

Macro Weekly It takes courage to forecast a recession

🕔11:55, 10.okt 2019

Economists are not very good at forecasting recessions. I really should rephrase that. Economists are very good at ‘forecasting’ recessions, but usually only when the downturn has actually already started. They (perhaps I should say: we) are not good at

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Monthly Commodity Insights –  …price forecasts for commodity markets

Monthly Commodity Insights – …price forecasts for commodity markets

🕔08:36, 4.okt 2019

Weaker economic drivers limit upside commodity prices After a drop below 170 in August, the CRB-index recovered to 180. The main driver was higher WTI crude prices, which account for 23% of the index. We expect more range trading in

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Divergence and boneheads

Divergence and boneheads

🕔08:45, 23.sep 2019

Eurozone industrial production has been contracting on a year-on-year basis for nine consecutive months until July. Output was down 2.0% yoy in July, slightly better than the – 2.4% in June. A remarkable divergence is taking place behind these numbers.

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Draghi’s gamble leaves Lagarde with work to do

Draghi’s gamble leaves Lagarde with work to do

🕔18:01, 19.sep 2019

ECB View: Large-scale fiscal stimulus is unlikely to come through, while markets were not impressed with the package – In the months running up to last week’s Governing Council meeting, the ECB stressed its dissatisfaction with the inflation outlook and

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World trade and manufacturing remain under pressure

World trade and manufacturing remain under pressure

🕔11:05, 13.sep 2019

Business confidence in manufacturing globally, as measured by the global PMI manufacturing improved a little in August but remains weak: 49.5 versus 49.2. This was partly thanks to an improvement in China’s Caixin index (50.4, up from 49.9). But the

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Base Metals Uncertain

Base Metals Uncertain

🕔10:10, 13.sep 2019

A diverse picture has emerged in base metals markets. The prices of aluminium, copper and zinc are now relatively low, while the price of nickel has risen to new heights. Clearly, the uncertain macroeconomic climate is having a depressing effect

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Why the ECB cannot exclude QE and why it needs to be big

Why the ECB cannot exclude QE and why it needs to be big

🕔09:59, 11.sep 2019

ECB View: A policy package excluding large-scale QE will not close the inflation gap – Market doubts about whether QE will be included in the ECB’s stimulus package in September have built over recent days and have helped to fuel

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Energy Transition Monitor

Energy Transition Monitor

🕔10:03, 6.sep 2019

The Netherlands has set ambitious targets with regards to reducing carbon emissions and moving towards a large share of renewable energy. The aim is to achieve 16% of renewable energy share by 2023. This means more than doubling the current

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Will silver continue to catch up?

Will silver continue to catch up?

🕔17:04, 3.sep 2019

Since the start of this year silver prices have risen 10% versus the US dollar and 13% versus the Chinese yuan and the Indian rupee. Despite the strong rise in silver prices, their overall performance has been rather disappointing. Gold

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Is platinum the new gold?

Is platinum the new gold?

🕔12:22, 3.sep 2019

From the start of this year to 5 July, platinum prices underperformed palladium prices and gold prices by a wide margin, with only silver price performing worse. Since July, silver prices have caught up with gold prices, outperforming all other

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Trump slump drags the world along

Trump slump drags the world along

🕔12:01, 3.sep 2019

US-China tensions escalated further a week ago. In response to fresh US tariffs (10%) on USD 300bn of imports from China announced on 1 August (to be implemented in two stages on 1 September and 15 December), China retaliated on

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Comparing liquid alternatives and hedge funds

Comparing liquid alternatives and hedge funds

🕔17:43, 30.aug 2019

Liquid alternatives (typically regulated by the Investment Company Act of 1940) and hedge funds (often lightly regulated legal structures) are public and private vehicles that investors use to access a variety of alternative investment strategies. To compare and contrast them,

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Energy Monitor 20 August 2019

Energy Monitor 20 August 2019

🕔12:27, 23.aug 2019

Henry Hub Natgas prices under pressure based on high supply US Henry Hub Natgas prices have been under pressure since 2005. One reason is that in recent years US gas production has been on the rise. Not only the traditional

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Latin America Watch

Latin America Watch

🕔19:34, 22.aug 2019

Growth forecasts revised down In view of the steadily escalating trade war, we further reduced our growth forecasts for both industrialised countries and emerging markets last month. As well as the global challenges, many Latin American countries are also contending

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Growth concerns mount, despite tariff delay

Growth concerns mount, despite tariff delay

🕔08:31, 20.aug 2019

More twists and turns in the US-China trade war It has not been a big surprise to us that the US would become more protectionist and mercantilist under a Trump presidency. It also has not been a big surprise that

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Germany heading for recession

Germany heading for recession

🕔17:45, 16.aug 2019

Germany’s GDP contracted by 0.1% qoq in 2019Q2, down from +0.4% in Q1. No further details have been published yet, but we refer to the press release of the Statistisches Bundesamt for visibility. GDP growth was weighed down by the

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Oil prices revised lower

Oil prices revised lower

🕔07:40, 15.aug 2019

Lower economic growth leads to slower growth of global oil demand Due to the new escalation of the trade war between the US and China an agreement seems to be further away than ever. The import taxes have a negative

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Gold: Near term correction risk

Gold: Near term correction risk

🕔19:08, 14.aug 2019

Gold prices have rallied by 17% this year. On 21 June our year-end forecast of USD 1,400 per ounce was reached and on 5 August our year-end 2020 forecast of USD 1,500 was also reached. We had expected higher gold

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Agri Grains Insights

Agri Grains Insights

🕔08:33, 31.jul 2019

So far this year, the difference between the highest and the lowest corn price is 24%. For the wheat price this is 22% while for soybeans the gap is 15%. This indicates that the grain markets have witnessed a turbulent

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Macro Weekly: “Worse and worse”

Macro Weekly: “Worse and worse”

🕔18:56, 30.jul 2019

Business confidence in manufacturing falls further, almost everywhere Eurozone heading for stagnation (or worse?) ECB to provide fresh stimulus in September

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US, China firm, Europe feeble

US, China firm, Europe feeble

🕔15:03, 24.jul 2019

Macro Weekly Recent US economic data paints a picture of an economy that is unlikely to fall into recession any time soon. The current expansion is easily going to be the longest on record (records going back to the second

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OPEC delivers as expected

OPEC delivers as expected

🕔13:02, 5.jul 2019

OPEC extends its production cut agreement with another nine months As expected, OPEC extended its production cut agreement of 1.2 million barrels per day (mb/d) with another nine months. Together with its partners, led by Russia, OPEC will maintain current

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What’s up with inflation?

What’s up with inflation?

🕔13:02, 5.jul 2019

US Watch Core inflation continues to disappoint to the downside, despite an apparently tight labour market While some transitory factors are at work, and base effects should push core PCE back near the Fed’s 2% target by year-end…

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