Value stocks outperformed through mid-February as investors repriced expensive growth stocks. Now, mounting inflation and rising interest rates are creating conditions for a broader value recovery, particularly for companies that have solid business fundamentals. Style return patterns have been erratic
Too early to become positive On 21 April the CRB index set a low at 101.48 when WTI oil prices dropped deep into negative territory. WTI accounts for a considerable share of the CRB index (23%). Since then oil prices
FX Watch Dit jaar tot nu toe zijn de valuta's van de opkomende markten verzwakt. De risicoaversie als gevolg van de impact van COVID-19 heeft geleid tot een sterke kapitaaluitstroom uit veel opkomende markten. Hierdoor verzwakten de munten. Van alle …
Forecasts key indicators
Five reasons why the recovery will take time With restrictions on economic activity starting to be lifted, and central banks and governments having put in place unprecedented stimulus, optimism is in the air. Certainly financial markets have been partying in
A new high in gold prices The stars seem to be aligned for gold prices Improvement in investor sentiment, aggressive monetary policy easing, ultra-low interest rates and fiscal stimulus have all supported gold prices We remain cautious and we expect
Strong deal but uncertainties remain The OPEC+ production cut agreement is historic In particular, the length of the deal was a positive surprise There are many uncertainties left, though, which kept oil prices trading sideways ABN AMRO oil price forecast
The extension and widening of the lockdown in the Eurozone and the US has driven us to make a further downward revision of our baseline expectations for the economy in 2020. We also sketch a negative and a positive scenario,
Oil prices dropped to the lowest levels in 18 years before prices ballooned Since our previous Energy Monitor on 18 March, oil prices have remained very volatile, and double-digit percentage declines or gains may look like being the new normal.
Sharp sell-off in the CRB index and still more to come Demand shock builds on existing supply glut The desired gold position?
Short but sharp recession Our baseline scenario sees GDP contracting 3.5% Consumer spending dries up, hospitality industry hit very hard… … but offline-to-online substitution limits total fall in consumer spending to an estimated 5% in 2020 In such times as
OPEC and partners failed to reach a new production cut agreement Russia refused to join the OPEC meeting on reaching an agreement for a bigger production cut. As a result, the current production cut agreement (officially -1.7 mb/d + 0.4
2019 was another disappointing year At the beginning of 2019, we thought that after a number of years of recession and, subsequently, a very disappointing recovery, growth in Brazil would finally pick up. However, the recently published definitive figures for
Over the last few weeks, world stock markets continued to be fuelled by strong risk appe- tite and inflows. However, more recently we have seen volatility rising as news on the coronavirus is turning worse. Markets can no longer ignore
Growth to stabilise in Year of the Rat On 25 January 2020, the Year of the Rat will start. The rat is the first animal of the Chinese Zodiac and is associated with wealth and surplus. That is a bit
Germany sneezes, but no cold for the Netherlands ‘When Germany sneezes, the Netherlands catches a cold’ is an often heard phrase in the debate on the Dutch business cycle. Germany is the most important export partner of the Netherlands and
Last week, the OPEC has decided, together with her partners (combined OPEC+), to increase its production cut agreement. The existing agreement to lower crude production by 1.2 million barrels per day (mb/d) was raised with another 503 kb/d to a
ECB president Christine Lagarde was comfortable in her new role. Nobody had expected a change in the ECB’s monetary policy, but everybody was interested to see how she would handle the press conference following her first meeting in charge of
We published a global 2020 Outlook last week instead of a weekly. I argued that the global economy will remain weak- ish in the short term, but show improvement in the course of 2020. If my assessment is right we
Precious metal prices have had a very strong year. Palladium had a stellar performance, rising by more than 47%. Gold and silver rose substantially above our year-end forecasts of USD 1,400 and US 18 per ounce, respectively, and platinum prices
Economic growth set to slow further: from 1.7% in 2019 to just under 1% in 2020 The Dutch economy managed to continue growing at a stable pace in the first three quarters of 2019. Gross domestic product (GDP) achieved growth
The UK votes in a general election on 12 December. Polls point to a Conservative victory, but another hung parliament is also possible In any case, the risk of a disorderly Brexit is now very low With a Conservative majority,
My colleague Arjen van Dijkhuizen commented on ‘hard’ Chinese data already: here. Industrial production growth fell back to 4.7% yoy in October, down from 5.8% in September. Retail sales growth fell back to 7.2% yoy from 7.8% and investment in
Asia remains an important growth market for cocoa, sugar and coffee and demand on this continent will grow the most in the coming years. China and India account for a particularly large share of the demand. Although demand is increasing
The break in the clouds that the ABN AMRO Investment Committee glimpsed a couple weeks ago in macroeconomic and market data has been realised in the form of stabilisation, if not outright improvement. The Investment Committee therefore decided to increase
An Emerging Commodity Coalition Why this report? Regardless of size in global GDP, the BRICS are responsible for almost half of consumption and production of commodities. This makes BRICS an interesting topic to address. But the BRICS will face some
Over the past month, the CRB index rose by almost 2%, which was mainly due to the price gains in oil and gas. Going forward, higher geopolitical tensions could push prices higher. Industrial metal prices remained soft, while precious metal
Eurozone business confidence stabilised in October according to preliminary data. The Markit PMI for manufacturing was unchanged at 45.7. Still nothing to write home about, of course, but it could have been worse. PMI data have not been released for
UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson reached a deal with the EU on Brexit. The deal takes the ‘backstop’ out of the equation, but puts an economic border in the Irish Sea. At the time of writing European leaders still have
Prices in metal markets are heavily influenced by cyclical trends Base Metals: weakening global economic growth is dampening prices Steel: output is high with weak manufacturing demand, particularly for cars Steel (raw materials): cheapest types of iron ore remain popular
The latest housing market data slightly exceeded our expectations. The annualised transaction volume has more or less stabilised since early 2019. Prices too have advanced a bit more strongly than foreseen. These better-than-anticipated figures have led us to slightly raise
Positive developments can be reported about Brexit and the US-China conflict, two issues that have caused a lot of uncertainty during the last 12 months. In turn this uncertainty has caused a significant amount of damage to the global economy.
Economists are not very good at forecasting recessions. I really should rephrase that. Economists are very good at ‘forecasting’ recessions, but usually only when the downturn has actually already started. They (perhaps I should say: we) are not good at
Weaker economic drivers limit upside commodity prices After a drop below 170 in August, the CRB-index recovered to 180. The main driver was higher WTI crude prices, which account for 23% of the index. We expect more range trading in
Eurozone industrial production has been contracting on a year-on-year basis for nine consecutive months until July. Output was down 2.0% yoy in July, slightly better than the – 2.4% in June. A remarkable divergence is taking place behind these numbers.
ECB View: Large-scale fiscal stimulus is unlikely to come through, while markets were not impressed with the package – In the months running up to last week’s Governing Council meeting, the ECB stressed its dissatisfaction with the inflation outlook and
Business confidence in manufacturing globally, as measured by the global PMI manufacturing improved a little in August but remains weak: 49.5 versus 49.2. This was partly thanks to an improvement in China’s Caixin index (50.4, up from 49.9). But the
A diverse picture has emerged in base metals markets. The prices of aluminium, copper and zinc are now relatively low, while the price of nickel has risen to new heights. Clearly, the uncertain macroeconomic climate is having a depressing effect
ECB View: A policy package excluding large-scale QE will not close the inflation gap – Market doubts about whether QE will be included in the ECB’s stimulus package in September have built over recent days and have helped to fuel
The Netherlands has set ambitious targets with regards to reducing carbon emissions and moving towards a large share of renewable energy. The aim is to achieve 16% of renewable energy share by 2023. This means more than doubling the current
Since the start of this year silver prices have risen 10% versus the US dollar and 13% versus the Chinese yuan and the Indian rupee. Despite the strong rise in silver prices, their overall performance has been rather disappointing. Gold
From the start of this year to 5 July, platinum prices underperformed palladium prices and gold prices by a wide margin, with only silver price performing worse. Since July, silver prices have caught up with gold prices, outperforming all other
US-China tensions escalated further a week ago. In response to fresh US tariffs (10%) on USD 300bn of imports from China announced on 1 August (to be implemented in two stages on 1 September and 15 December), China retaliated on
Liquid alternatives (typically regulated by the Investment Company Act of 1940) and hedge funds (often lightly regulated legal structures) are public and private vehicles that investors use to access a variety of alternative investment strategies. To compare and contrast them,
Henry Hub Natgas prices under pressure based on high supply US Henry Hub Natgas prices have been under pressure since 2005. One reason is that in recent years US gas production has been on the rise. Not only the traditional
Growth forecasts revised down In view of the steadily escalating trade war, we further reduced our growth forecasts for both industrialised countries and emerging markets last month. As well as the global challenges, many Latin American countries are also contending
More twists and turns in the US-China trade war It has not been a big surprise to us that the US would become more protectionist and mercantilist under a Trump presidency. It also has not been a big surprise that
Germany’s GDP contracted by 0.1% qoq in 2019Q2, down from +0.4% in Q1. No further details have been published yet, but we refer to the press release of the Statistisches Bundesamt for visibility. GDP growth was weighed down by the
Lower economic growth leads to slower growth of global oil demand Due to the new escalation of the trade war between the US and China an agreement seems to be further away than ever. The import taxes have a negative
Gold prices have rallied by 17% this year. On 21 June our year-end forecast of USD 1,400 per ounce was reached and on 5 August our year-end 2020 forecast of USD 1,500 was also reached. We had expected higher gold
