The provided text highlights the economic issues faced by Germany as it encounters potential contraction amidst a myriad of challenges, such as slowing demand for exports, high energy costs, and policy uncertainties. "Germany needs more than a plan" emphasizes the
The Chinese consumer is at the heart of public support measures but rebuilding confidence will take time. More support measures are likely by year-end to stimulate employment (e.g. corporate rate cuts, notably for SMEs). Cash handouts or VAT rate cuts
More challenging macro environment. Global GDP growth is projected to decelerate to +2.5% in 2023, as low as in 2019. Advanced economies will likely dodge a full recession but will experience low growth in 2023 and 2024. Post-pandemic, consumers have
In August, the global financial landscape was dominated by hawkish stances from key central banks in developed markets, with the Fed, under Jay Powell's leadership, emphasizing its intention to control inflation. This, coupled with stronger than anticipated US economic data,
60/40: It’s not over until it’s over. 2022 flipped the script on the traditional 60/40 portfolio split, with inflation and growth dynamics switching the traditionally negative correlation between equities and bonds into a positive one. But we do not expect
Europe's Stance on Raw Materials The future energy transition hinges heavily on the availability and access to critical raw materials like lithium, cobalt, and nickel, which are pivotal for green technologies. As per the IEA, the critical minerals market was
The original title, "US & Eurozone growth defying gravity," provides a snapshot of the contrasting economic trajectories of the US and the Eurozone in 2023. While the US exhibits robust economic markers with a +2.4% annualized GDP growth in Q2
"US immaculate disinflation: How much should we thank the Fed for?" by Allianz delves into the significant influence of the Federal Reserve (Fed) on the recent decrease in US inflation. As of June, inflation decreased to 3%, and the Fed's
In their latest report titled "Back to the beach: Tourism rebound in Southern Europe?", Allianz analyzes the implications of surging travel prices for Southern Europe's tourism sector, especially during the crucial summer season. Beach Holidays: A Continued Favorite Despite rising
The presented report delves into the economic implications of recent heatwaves across the United States, Southern Europe, and China. The study proposes that these climatic phenomena may have culled up to 0.6% of 2023's GDP. It underscores the critical necessity
Authored by Allianz, the "Global Macro & Corporate Outlook 2023-24" paints a picture of the near-term global economic landscape. Major economies, despite early recessions this year, have shown resilience largely thanks to their labor markets. However, these supportive factors have
Allianz's enlightening piece "More emissions than meet the eye: Even without taking into account the cryptocurrency boom," sheds light on the significant carbon emissions produced by the global ICT sector, which parallel those of the aviation industry. The sector, pivotal
The report, "European Retail: A Cocktail of Lower Spending and Tighter Funding" by Allianz Research, provides an examination of the European retail sector a year after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Despite record-high inflation and diminished consumer confidence, retail sales in
The report "A New Eurozone Doom Loop?" by Allianz Research explores potential crisis points across different geographical regions, focusing on the Eurozone's housing market, Central and Eastern Europe's energy sector, and possible social unrest in Africa due to economic factors.
Allianz's "Eurozone Convergence: Two Steps Forward, One Step Back" dissects three key factors affecting global economic dynamics. Firstly, the US labor market seems to be heading for a soft landing, although it may not be sufficient to instigate Federal action.
In the article "De-dollarization? Not so fast… What to watch: airlines sector recovery, US housing market update, PMI downward momentum and corporate debt maturity profiles", the author presents a broad review of various economic sectors. They spotlight the brisk recovery
Climate change risks and their impact on monetary policy are at the forefront of this week's ECB Forum on Central Banking in Sintra. An awarded academic paper will explore how transitioning to a net-zero emissions economy can influence the transmission
Allianz, in their report "Automotive industry unplugged?", brings forward a nuanced analysis of inflation perception and market indicators. Key focal points include the disparities between perceived and actual inflation in the Eurozone and inflation differentials in German-speaking Europe, a phenomenon
In the report "New Mobility States of Mind: Understanding the latest trends and changing perceptions of new mobility users," Allianz underlines the transformative trends shaping the mobility insurance sector. They note how existing business models are being reconsidered due to
As Europe grapples with increasing oil prices and the subsequent impacts on energy supply, the corporate landscape sees potential shifts in profit margins. Both the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Federal Reserve project peaking rates by September, followed by
The comprehensive research by Allianz, titled "The right to work versus the right to retire," discusses the persisting issue of ageism in labor markets, particularly in the EU, where only 51% of the population aged between 60 to 64 remains
Allianz's comprehensive 2023 Trade Global Survey delves into the business perspectives of companies operating in seven countries, focusing on their export activities and foreign production sites. The findings present a cautious optimism among exporters, with approximately 70% expecting an increase
In "Sector Vulnerability to Rising Financing Costs", the examination of how rising financing costs affect different sectors and regions worldwide is outlined. The text highlights the increasing debt-to-EBITDA ratio among US and European firms, and their potential vulnerability to liquidity
In the wake of biodiversity loss, portfolios concentrated on equities, agriculture, and food services sectors experience significant impacts. Through a case study on pollination-service loss (PSL), financial institutions can evaluate their portfolio exposure to biodiversity-related risk. For instance, a representative
The text discusses the ongoing dichotomy between increased employment and lagging productivity in the Eurozone. Despite a 2.3% increase in employment levels compared to pre-crisis times, notably in France and Spain, productivity growth remains sluggish. The labor markets adjusted mainly
Allianz's article, "Eurozone commercial real estate – selectivity matters!" illuminates the complex state of the commercial real estate sector under the influence of financial tightening. This sector, previously thriving in a low-interest-rate environment, now confronts cyclical challenges like economic slowdown,
In "Earnings recession to catch up with corporates," Allianz reveals an intricate picture of the Q1 earnings season. Despite 62% of European and US companies surpassing estimates, US earnings are already in a recession. This is primarily attributed to the
"Bank of England: First to hike, last to pause and pivot" assesses the recent interest rate hike by the Bank of England and its subsequent challenges. The article highlights the UK's higher-than-expected inflation rate, attributing it to various factors like
This text discusses the European housing market and its challenges, including tightening financing conditions, weakened credit demand, low consumer confidence, and supply constraints. The shift to variable-rate mortgages indicates borrowers' expectations of improved financing conditions but also reflects continued interest-rate
The main theme of the text revolves around global trade recession, electric car pricing, German household savings, and German foreign direct investment (FDI) in Africa. The focus then shifts to policy rate decisions in the US and Eurozone amid inflation
In the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic, pension reform has re-emerged as a global concern. The Allianz Global Pension Report 2023, by Allianz, evaluates pension systems' sustainability and adequacy using the Allianz Pension Index (API). Policymakers in industrialized nations focus
In the research paper "Still working from home? US banks are getting worried," Allianz brings attention to the main theme of banking vulnerabilities in emerging markets. The text specifically discusses three pressing issues: alarm bells ringing within emerging market banking,
In "No rest for the leveraged", Allianz Research reveals an alarming trend in business insolvencies, with a predicted increase of 21% in 2023 and 4% in 2024. Half of the analyzed countries are expected to exceed pre-pandemic insolvency levels by
Our informative Research file delves into the current state of food inflation in Europe and what factors are contributing to the high prices. Despite cooling commodity prices, food, alcohol, and tobacco inflation remain high and are likely to remain so
In the research paper titled "Spring Economic Outlook," the author from Allianz discusses the impact of negative confidence effects from the near-death experience in the US banking sector and the unresolved energy situation in Europe on the global economy. The
Volatility as a measure of investment risk is widely accepted by academic researchers and industry professionals and has become ubiquitous in investment analysis. Furthermore, it is among the few financial variables that exhibit predictable time variation. Hence, there is an
• German stagnation—rising insolvencies? German business insolvencies are rebounding albeit from a low level. • US real estate—trouble (still) ahead? Some housing market indicators have stabilized, but downside risks continue due to weaker domestic activity. The outlook for commercial real
Biodiversity matters for the finance sector. Financial institutions may face financial, market, reputational and legal risks when they invest in economic activities that cause adverse effects on biodiversity or are highly dependent …
What to watch Windsor Framework to the economic rescue – The lifted uncertainty could be sparing the UK economy 2.5% of business investment and a third of a GDP point in 2023-24. US monetary aggregates – The Swan song? Since
Ukraine – Reconstruction needs to start now. The priority will be investment in infrastructure, health services, housing and schools, as well as digital and energy resilience. We believe that this will require at least EUR100-150bn of private investment (in addition
Demographics, decarbonization, deglobalization, debt, digitalization The end of the divine stance (in particular core inflation Inflation is driven by both cyclical and structural factors. The inflation rate comprises a broad-based basked of consumption goods and services. Commodity and food prices
What to watch: Nigeria beyond the elections, Eurozone mortgages and China’s reopening. Market movers Nigeria – Beyond the election transition. As Nigeria heads to the polls on 25 February, economic headwinds are intensifying. The next government will need to address
Global tactical asset allocation views brief After a weak 2022, the grass seemed a lot greener at the start of 2023, with equity and bond markets roaring back strongly. The optimism was fueled by a continuation of weaker headline inflation
The long goodbye to zeronomics and its implications for the private and public sector in the Eurozone. 2022 marked the end of the era of negative interest rates. But the turnaround has not yet reached all parts of the economy.
Market movers: • German stagnation—rising insolvencies? German business insolvencies are rebounding albeit from a low level. • US real estate—trouble (still) ahead? Some housing market indicators have …
Total gross financial assets of Asia’s private households increased by +9.4% in 2021, reaching a new record high of EUR62.4trn. This corresponds to EUR16,380 per capita, compared to the global level of EUR41,890. China and Japan account for 75% of
Global tactical asset allocation views brief: Global equities slumped over 2022, posting their worst annual returns since 2008, as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine added to already heightened inflationary pressures and caused the biggest energy price shock since the 1970s. Central
Lower than expected inflation numbers helped both equity and bond markets continue to trend higher in November. News from China supported this positive sentiment as the world's second largest economy finally showed signs of a shift away from their zero-COVID
Investors are witnessing unprecedented market conditions. Within a turbulent market environment charaterised by a high inflationary pressure, a shift from global to “glocal” trade patterns and a fading era of cheap energy, how can an active and agile multi asset
Bad news was good news in July. With recession risks becoming more imminent especially for Europe, markets priced in an earlier easing of monetary policy. For the US, rate cuts are priced in as early as end of Q1 2023.
