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Posts From Allianz GI

Forecasting Stock Market Volatility

Forecasting Stock Market Volatility

🕔14:15, 8.Mar 2023

Volatility as a measure of investment risk is widely accepted by academic researchers and industry professionals and has become ubiquitous in investment analysis. Furthermore, it is among the few financial variables that exhibit predictable time variation. Hence, there is an

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Monetary policy in Central and Eastern Europe: ahead of the curve?

Monetary policy in Central and Eastern Europe: ahead of the curve?

🕔14:53, 7.Mar 2023

• German stagnation—rising insolvencies? German business insolvencies are rebounding albeit from a low level. • US real estate—trouble (still) ahead? Some housing market indicators have stabilized, but downside risks continue due to weaker domestic activity. The outlook for commercial real

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The new risk frontier in finance: biodiversity loss

The new risk frontier in finance: biodiversity loss

🕔16:23, 6.Mar 2023

Biodiversity matters for the finance sector. Financial institutions may face financial, market, reputational and legal risks when they invest in economic activities that cause adverse effects on biodiversity or are highly dependent …

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In focus – International Women’s Day: Employ and pay them more!

In focus – International Women’s Day: Employ and pay them more!

🕔10:36, 6.Mar 2023

What to watch Windsor Framework to the economic rescue – The lifted uncertainty could be sparing the UK economy 2.5% of business investment and a third of a GDP point in 2023-24. US monetary aggregates – The Swan song? Since

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Russia’s war economy

Russia’s war economy

🕔10:43, 2.Mar 2023

Ukraine – Reconstruction needs to start now. The priority will be investment in infrastructure, health services, housing and schools, as well as digital and energy resilience. We believe that this will require at least EUR100-150bn of private investment (in addition

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The “five Ds” of structurally higher inflation

The “five Ds” of structurally higher inflation

🕔08:52, 1.Mar 2023

Demographics, decarbonization, deglobalization, debt, digitalization The end of the divine stance (in particular core inflation Inflation is driven by both cyclical and structural factors. The inflation rate comprises a broad-based basked of consumption goods and services. Commodity and food prices

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The silver lining for global trade

The silver lining for global trade

🕔14:51, 27.Feb 2023

What to watch: Nigeria beyond the elections, Eurozone mortgages and China’s reopening.  Market movers Nigeria – Beyond the election transition. As Nigeria heads to the polls on 25 February, economic headwinds are intensifying. The next government will need to address

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is the grass always greener on the other side?

is the grass always greener on the other side?

🕔16:36, 23.Feb 2023

Global tactical asset allocation views brief After a weak 2022, the grass seemed a lot greener at the start of 2023, with equity and bond markets roaring back strongly. The optimism was fueled by a continuation of weaker headline inflation

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Rates, not roses

Rates, not roses

🕔14:47, 16.Feb 2023

The long goodbye to zeronomics and its implications for the private and public sector in the Eurozone. 2022 marked the end of the era of negative interest rates. But the turnaround has not yet reached all parts of the economy.

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Monetary policy in Central and Eastern Europe: ahead of the curve?

Monetary policy in Central and Eastern Europe: ahead of the curve?

🕔14:44, 13.Feb 2023

Market movers: • German stagnation—rising insolvencies? German business insolvencies are rebounding albeit from a low level. • US real estate—trouble (still) ahead? Some housing market indicators have …

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Wealth without pensions in Asia

Wealth without pensions in Asia

🕔08:42, 8.Feb 2023

Total gross financial assets of Asia’s private households increased by +9.4% in 2021, reaching a new record high of EUR62.4trn. This corresponds to EUR16,380 per capita, compared to the global level of EUR41,890. China and Japan account for 75% of

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Views in brief: Maneuvering through uncharted territory in a new year

Views in brief: Maneuvering through uncharted territory in a new year

🕔10:25, 23.Jan 2023

Global tactical asset allocation views brief: Global equities slumped over 2022, posting their worst annual returns since 2008, as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine added to already heightened inflationary pressures and caused the biggest energy price shock since the 1970s. Central

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Global tactical asset allocation views brief

Global tactical asset allocation views brief

🕔16:03, 2.Jan 2023

Lower than expected inflation numbers helped both equity and bond markets continue to trend higher in November. News from China supported this positive sentiment as the world's second largest economy finally showed signs of a shift away from their zero-COVID

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The benefits of multi asset strategies in an inflationary environment

The benefits of multi asset strategies in an inflationary environment

🕔10:40, 22.Aug 2022

Investors are witnessing unprecedented market conditions. Within a turbulent market environment charaterised by a high inflationary pressure, a shift from global to “glocal” trade patterns and a fading era of cheap energy, how can an active and agile multi asset

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Maintaining a cautious tilt

Maintaining a cautious tilt

🕔14:08, 17.Aug 2022

Bad news was good news in July. With recession risks becoming more imminent especially for Europe, markets priced in an earlier easing of monetary policy. For the US, rate cuts are priced in as early as end of Q1 2023.

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Views in brief: Nowhere to hide

Views in brief: Nowhere to hide

🕔08:55, 28.Jul 2022

Global tactical asset allocation views brief As inflation data continued to surprise on the upside, major central banks had no other choice but to tighten their monetary policies more aggressively than markets had expected. This led to speculations that a

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Maintaining a cautious tilt

Maintaining a cautious tilt

🕔14:40, 28.Jun 2022

Thanks to a month-end rally, global equities ultimately posted relatively flat returns for the month of May. It was a volatile month for global bonds, too. Yields initially spiked higher, with the 10-year US Treasury yield peaking at 3.2%, while

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Global equities tumbled over January

Global equities tumbled over January

🕔16:26, 3.Mar 2022

Global equities tumbled over January, largely driven by increasingly hawkish central bank expectations in response to inflationary pressures. Rising geopolitical risks also knocked risk assets, sparked by fears that Russia was about to invade Ukraine. Global bonds also sold off,

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Global equities tumbled over January

Global equities tumbled over January

🕔13:36, 21.Feb 2022

Global equities tumbled over January, largely driven by increasingly hawkish central bank expectations in response to inflationary pressures. Rising geopolitical risks also knocked risk assets, sparked by fears that Russia was about to invade Ukraine. Global bonds also sold off,

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Allianz Risk Barometer 2022

Allianz Risk Barometer 2022

🕔14:12, 3.Feb 2022

The most important business risks for the next 12 months and beyond, based on the insight of 2,650 risk management experts from 89 countries and territories. Following a year of unprecedented cyber-attacks, business interruption and supply chain disruption, and natural

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Monthly market and signal update – December 2021

Monthly market and signal update – December 2021

🕔16:45, 14.Dec 2021

Market recap: Global equities initially rallied, but later dropped towards the month-end on fears of the COVID-19 variant, Omicron. Global bonds rallied over …

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Two questions for autumn

Two questions for autumn

🕔11:15, 8.Sep 2021

Capital Markets Monthly Summer is coming to an end in the northern hemisphere. Whether the stock markets will begin to see cooler temperatures following the sharp price increases of these past few months, or conversely, whether we can expect an

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How inflation can be an opportunity for active fixed-income investors

How inflation can be an opportunity for active fixed-income investors

🕔18:27, 24.Aug 2021

Rising prices for goods and services are one of the biggest risks for investors in conventional government bonds. But there are ways for active managers to generate positive returns from rising – and falling – inflation. The key is to

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Active is:Generating capital income with dividends.

Active is:Generating capital income with dividends.

🕔07:34, 27.Jan 2020

Active is:Generating capital income with dividends.   Bond yields are currently deep in the red. Almost 25 % of all outstanding bonds world-wide carry a negative nominal yield. In Germany, yields are below zero for roughly 90 % of outstanding

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In the Year of the Rat, think even longer term

In the Year of the Rat, think even longer term

🕔06:28, 22.Jan 2020

Active is: Sharing insights This Chinese New Year, more than a billion people globally will celebrate the Year of the Rat. We believe investors everywhere can also find reason to celebrate China as a source of continued economic growth. Even if US-China

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Allianz Risk Barometer

Allianz Risk Barometer

🕔15:56, 16.Jan 2019

Technology is breeding new threats as well as business models. Traditional risks such as natural catastrophes continue to challenge while other threats such as cyber, neck-and-neck with business interruption at the top of the Allianz Risk Barometer for the first

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Global claims review

Global claims review

🕔14:47, 13.Jan 2019

The top causes of corporate insurance losses This report focuses on global developments in corporate insurance claims over the period July 1, 2013 to July 1, 2018, identifying the top causes of loss and other trends across a number of

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The predictive power of ESG for insurance

The predictive power of ESG for insurance

🕔14:45, 6.Dec 2018

AGCS and The Value Group, supported by academia, undertook pioneering research on the relevance of ESG for industrial insurance The study establishes the argument for the integration of ESG into risk analysis The research identified ESG parameters with predictive power

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Allianz Global Wealth Report  2018

Allianz Global Wealth Report 2018

🕔13:03, 1.Oct 2018

An exceptional year Despite growing political tensions, 2017 was an almost perfect year for investors. The economic recovery following the financial crisis culminated in a synchronous upturn around the globe and financial markets performed strongly, particularly equity markets. Financial assets

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Measuring and managing environmental exposure

Measuring and managing environmental exposure

🕔16:33, 4.Jul 2018

In Focus Natural capital is the global stock of natural resources, including soil, clean air and groundwater, as well as biodiversity. By many objective scientific and macro-economic indicators it is becoming increasingly clear that natural capital is being depleted at

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Resilient European economy

Resilient European economy

🕔08:42, 21.Jun 2018

Economic Insight In 2017, the global economy registered the strongest growth since 2011. In recent months, however, uncertainty about future economic developments has increased significantly, partly due to the protectionist US trade policy and geopolitical risks. We continue to assume

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Oil – Beyond geopolitics?

Oil – Beyond geopolitics?

🕔07:40, 20.Jun 2018

Economic Insight The peak may be behind us. A number of the drivers underlying recent oil price strength could diminish in strength or reverse. A currently elevated geopolitically induced risk premium might shrink once actual market flows become clear. Financial

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Stress is here to stay What’s next for Italy?

Stress is here to stay What’s next for Italy?

🕔08:14, 15.Jun 2018

Economic Insight Italy 88 days after the Italian parliamentary election, and an episode of exceptional financial market stress later, the Five Star Movement (M5S) and the Lega have sealed their governing alliance. Significant uncertainty remains however regarding the political and

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German growth outlook remains favorable

German growth outlook remains favorable

🕔07:04, 14.Jun 2018

Economic Insight The German economy got off to a weak start in 2018, with growth halving to 0.3% in the first quarter of this year compared with the end of 2017 (+0.6%). Within the euro area, the German economy is

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German growth outlook remains favorable

German growth outlook remains favorable

🕔08:42, 9.Jun 2018

Economic Insight The German economy got off to a weak start in 2018, with growth halving to 0.3% in the first quarter of this year compared with the end of 2017 (+0.6%). Within the euro area, the German economy is

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Industry starts the second quarter on a weak note

Industry starts the second quarter on a weak note

🕔08:42, 9.Jun 2018

The Newsline Industrial production fell by a seasonally-adjusted 1.7% in April compared to the previous month. Production is thus 1% below the average level of the first quarter. All sub-sectors of industry recorded significant month-over-month declines. Consumer goods (-2.1%) and

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The world economy: party on?

The world economy: party on?

🕔08:04, 5.Jun 2018

The View In 2017, global GDP growth reached the +3% post, a landmark it hadn’t reached since 2010. That will likely stay in sight in 2018 and 2019. The general trend comes from a rare combination of favorable factors: the

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Trade games, trade feud or trade war?

Trade games, trade feud or trade war?

🕔08:48, 5.May 2018

Protectionism Last March, Donald Trump decided to drag age-old protectionism out of the past, imposing tariffs on US imports. Retaliation from China – the main target – followed; a solution may be on its way, yet, fears of a trade

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Payment delays up 2 days globally: Don’t lower your guard too early!

Payment delays up 2 days globally: Don’t lower your guard too early!

🕔08:48, 5.May 2018

Payment Behaviour Good news on global growth comes with a significant deterioration in payment terms. Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) increased by +2 days in 2017 to 66 days on average worldwide, its highest level since 2007. It had previously been

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nsurance markets: 80% of growth comes from emerging economies

nsurance markets: 80% of growth comes from emerging economies

🕔08:41, 27.Apr 2018

Global insurance premiums increase in 2017 by 3.7% to 3.66 trillion euros Property-casualty grows by 5.0%, almost twice as fast as life After a lost decade, premium growth should return to pre-crisis level – China is set to become the

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Just an economic soft-patch, not the end of the upswing!

Just an economic soft-patch, not the end of the upswing!

🕔07:42, 24.Apr 2018

The Newsline Today’s stabilization in eurozone purchasing managers' indices (PMI) is reassuring after recent economic indicators for the region came in below expectations pointing to a marked deceleration in economic momentum. The latter was due to a mixture of exuberant

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Responding to tomorrow’s challenges

Responding to tomorrow’s challenges

🕔07:39, 18.Apr 2018

The need for greater transparency among business has come to the fore as society’s expectations continue to grow. It is especially important for the financial services sector, which has a huge responsibility – and opportunity – to support societal priorities

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The Rise Of Artificial Intelligence:

The Rise Of Artificial Intelligence:

🕔08:40, 6.Apr 2018

Future Outlook And Emerging Risks Artificial Intelligence (AI) refers to the ability of a computer program to think and learn like a human and its snowballing impact on society is undeniable. AI applications already pervade many industries, bringing potential benefits

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Protectionism can end the expansion

Protectionism can end the expansion

🕔07:44, 27.Mar 2018

The initial financial market reaction to the announcements of US tariffs on steel and aluminium imports two weeks ago proved surprisingly contained. The limited economic importance of these product groups may have soothed nerves. Meanwhile concerns about a trade war

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Inflation risks? Moderate, and more in the US than the Eurozone

Inflation risks? Moderate, and more in the US than the Eurozone

🕔07:44, 24.Mar 2018

Executive Summary Despite the currently synchronous economic expansion in the US and in the euro area, the inflation risks are still different. In the US, in view of low unemployment and a strongly pro-cyclical fiscal policy, there are certainly risks

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The Eurozone is becoming more stable

The Eurozone is becoming more stable

🕔17:02, 22.Mar 2018

Euro Monitor 2017 The Eurozone currently finds itself in an economic sweetspot. GDP growth has registered above the potential rate since 2014 – at 2.5% last year, it reached the highest rate since the beginning of the global financial crisis.

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Macroeconomic consequences of US tax reform for Germany: greater need for action

Macroeconomic consequences of US tax reform for Germany: greater need for action

🕔07:43, 1.Mar 2018

We estimate the positive effect of the tax cuts on real economic growth in the US at more than half a percentage point in 2018 and between a quarter and half a percentage point in 2019. Additional economic effects could

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The 2018 Global Ranking

The 2018 Global Ranking

🕔07:03, 10.Feb 2018

The Worst and Best Places in the World to Collect Your Debts This second edition of the Euler Hermes Collection Complexity analysis looks into debt collection procedures in 50 countries (*).Sweden, Germany, and Ireland take the lead of our ranking

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Production remains on the uptrend

Production remains on the uptrend

🕔07:06, 8.Feb 2018

In December 2017, output in industry, including energy and construction, fell by 0.6% on a seasonally and working day basis compared with November, but overall output increased by 0.7% in the fourth quarter of 2017 compared with the previous quarter.

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No reason to panic

No reason to panic

🕔07:45, 7.Feb 2018

The recent collapse in the stock markets confirms expectations that the year 2018, which is likely to bring further interest rate hikes by the US central banks and the first steps towards normalization of monetary policy in the eurozone and

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