Volatility as a measure of investment risk is widely accepted by academic researchers and industry professionals and has become ubiquitous in investment analysis. Furthermore, it is among the few financial variables that exhibit predictable time variation. Hence, there is an
• German stagnation—rising insolvencies? German business insolvencies are rebounding albeit from a low level. • US real estate—trouble (still) ahead? Some housing market indicators have stabilized, but downside risks continue due to weaker domestic activity. The outlook for commercial real
Biodiversity matters for the finance sector. Financial institutions may face financial, market, reputational and legal risks when they invest in economic activities that cause adverse effects on biodiversity or are highly dependent …
What to watch Windsor Framework to the economic rescue – The lifted uncertainty could be sparing the UK economy 2.5% of business investment and a third of a GDP point in 2023-24. US monetary aggregates – The Swan song? Since
Ukraine – Reconstruction needs to start now. The priority will be investment in infrastructure, health services, housing and schools, as well as digital and energy resilience. We believe that this will require at least EUR100-150bn of private investment (in addition
Demographics, decarbonization, deglobalization, debt, digitalization The end of the divine stance (in particular core inflation Inflation is driven by both cyclical and structural factors. The inflation rate comprises a broad-based basked of consumption goods and services. Commodity and food prices
What to watch: Nigeria beyond the elections, Eurozone mortgages and China’s reopening. Market movers Nigeria – Beyond the election transition. As Nigeria heads to the polls on 25 February, economic headwinds are intensifying. The next government will need to address
Global tactical asset allocation views brief After a weak 2022, the grass seemed a lot greener at the start of 2023, with equity and bond markets roaring back strongly. The optimism was fueled by a continuation of weaker headline inflation
The long goodbye to zeronomics and its implications for the private and public sector in the Eurozone. 2022 marked the end of the era of negative interest rates. But the turnaround has not yet reached all parts of the economy.
Market movers: • German stagnation—rising insolvencies? German business insolvencies are rebounding albeit from a low level. • US real estate—trouble (still) ahead? Some housing market indicators have …
Total gross financial assets of Asia’s private households increased by +9.4% in 2021, reaching a new record high of EUR62.4trn. This corresponds to EUR16,380 per capita, compared to the global level of EUR41,890. China and Japan account for 75% of
Global tactical asset allocation views brief: Global equities slumped over 2022, posting their worst annual returns since 2008, as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine added to already heightened inflationary pressures and caused the biggest energy price shock since the 1970s. Central
Lower than expected inflation numbers helped both equity and bond markets continue to trend higher in November. News from China supported this positive sentiment as the world's second largest economy finally showed signs of a shift away from their zero-COVID
Investors are witnessing unprecedented market conditions. Within a turbulent market environment charaterised by a high inflationary pressure, a shift from global to “glocal” trade patterns and a fading era of cheap energy, how can an active and agile multi asset
Bad news was good news in July. With recession risks becoming more imminent especially for Europe, markets priced in an earlier easing of monetary policy. For the US, rate cuts are priced in as early as end of Q1 2023.
Global tactical asset allocation views brief As inflation data continued to surprise on the upside, major central banks had no other choice but to tighten their monetary policies more aggressively than markets had expected. This led to speculations that a
Thanks to a month-end rally, global equities ultimately posted relatively flat returns for the month of May. It was a volatile month for global bonds, too. Yields initially spiked higher, with the 10-year US Treasury yield peaking at 3.2%, while
Global equities tumbled over January, largely driven by increasingly hawkish central bank expectations in response to inflationary pressures. Rising geopolitical risks also knocked risk assets, sparked by fears that Russia was about to invade Ukraine. Global bonds also sold off,
Global equities tumbled over January, largely driven by increasingly hawkish central bank expectations in response to inflationary pressures. Rising geopolitical risks also knocked risk assets, sparked by fears that Russia was about to invade Ukraine. Global bonds also sold off,
The most important business risks for the next 12 months and beyond, based on the insight of 2,650 risk management experts from 89 countries and territories. Following a year of unprecedented cyber-attacks, business interruption and supply chain disruption, and natural
Market recap: Global equities initially rallied, but later dropped towards the month-end on fears of the COVID-19 variant, Omicron. Global bonds rallied over …
Capital Markets Monthly Summer is coming to an end in the northern hemisphere. Whether the stock markets will begin to see cooler temperatures following the sharp price increases of these past few months, or conversely, whether we can expect an
Rising prices for goods and services are one of the biggest risks for investors in conventional government bonds. But there are ways for active managers to generate positive returns from rising – and falling – inflation. The key is to
Active is:Generating capital income with dividends. Bond yields are currently deep in the red. Almost 25 % of all outstanding bonds world-wide carry a negative nominal yield. In Germany, yields are below zero for roughly 90 % of outstanding
Active is: Sharing insights This Chinese New Year, more than a billion people globally will celebrate the Year of the Rat. We believe investors everywhere can also find reason to celebrate China as a source of continued economic growth. Even if US-China
Technology is breeding new threats as well as business models. Traditional risks such as natural catastrophes continue to challenge while other threats such as cyber, neck-and-neck with business interruption at the top of the Allianz Risk Barometer for the first
The top causes of corporate insurance losses This report focuses on global developments in corporate insurance claims over the period July 1, 2013 to July 1, 2018, identifying the top causes of loss and other trends across a number of
AGCS and The Value Group, supported by academia, undertook pioneering research on the relevance of ESG for industrial insurance The study establishes the argument for the integration of ESG into risk analysis The research identified ESG parameters with predictive power
An exceptional year Despite growing political tensions, 2017 was an almost perfect year for investors. The economic recovery following the financial crisis culminated in a synchronous upturn around the globe and financial markets performed strongly, particularly equity markets. Financial assets
In Focus Natural capital is the global stock of natural resources, including soil, clean air and groundwater, as well as biodiversity. By many objective scientific and macro-economic indicators it is becoming increasingly clear that natural capital is being depleted at
Economic Insight In 2017, the global economy registered the strongest growth since 2011. In recent months, however, uncertainty about future economic developments has increased significantly, partly due to the protectionist US trade policy and geopolitical risks. We continue to assume
Economic Insight The peak may be behind us. A number of the drivers underlying recent oil price strength could diminish in strength or reverse. A currently elevated geopolitically induced risk premium might shrink once actual market flows become clear. Financial
Economic Insight Italy 88 days after the Italian parliamentary election, and an episode of exceptional financial market stress later, the Five Star Movement (M5S) and the Lega have sealed their governing alliance. Significant uncertainty remains however regarding the political and
Economic Insight The German economy got off to a weak start in 2018, with growth halving to 0.3% in the first quarter of this year compared with the end of 2017 (+0.6%). Within the euro area, the German economy is
Economic Insight The German economy got off to a weak start in 2018, with growth halving to 0.3% in the first quarter of this year compared with the end of 2017 (+0.6%). Within the euro area, the German economy is
The Newsline Industrial production fell by a seasonally-adjusted 1.7% in April compared to the previous month. Production is thus 1% below the average level of the first quarter. All sub-sectors of industry recorded significant month-over-month declines. Consumer goods (-2.1%) and
The View In 2017, global GDP growth reached the +3% post, a landmark it hadn’t reached since 2010. That will likely stay in sight in 2018 and 2019. The general trend comes from a rare combination of favorable factors: the
Protectionism Last March, Donald Trump decided to drag age-old protectionism out of the past, imposing tariffs on US imports. Retaliation from China – the main target – followed; a solution may be on its way, yet, fears of a trade
Payment Behaviour Good news on global growth comes with a significant deterioration in payment terms. Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) increased by +2 days in 2017 to 66 days on average worldwide, its highest level since 2007. It had previously been
Global insurance premiums increase in 2017 by 3.7% to 3.66 trillion euros Property-casualty grows by 5.0%, almost twice as fast as life After a lost decade, premium growth should return to pre-crisis level – China is set to become the
The Newsline Today’s stabilization in eurozone purchasing managers' indices (PMI) is reassuring after recent economic indicators for the region came in below expectations pointing to a marked deceleration in economic momentum. The latter was due to a mixture of exuberant
The need for greater transparency among business has come to the fore as society’s expectations continue to grow. It is especially important for the financial services sector, which has a huge responsibility – and opportunity – to support societal priorities
Future Outlook And Emerging Risks Artificial Intelligence (AI) refers to the ability of a computer program to think and learn like a human and its snowballing impact on society is undeniable. AI applications already pervade many industries, bringing potential benefits
The initial financial market reaction to the announcements of US tariffs on steel and aluminium imports two weeks ago proved surprisingly contained. The limited economic importance of these product groups may have soothed nerves. Meanwhile concerns about a trade war
Executive Summary Despite the currently synchronous economic expansion in the US and in the euro area, the inflation risks are still different. In the US, in view of low unemployment and a strongly pro-cyclical fiscal policy, there are certainly risks
Euro Monitor 2017 The Eurozone currently finds itself in an economic sweetspot. GDP growth has registered above the potential rate since 2014 – at 2.5% last year, it reached the highest rate since the beginning of the global financial crisis.
We estimate the positive effect of the tax cuts on real economic growth in the US at more than half a percentage point in 2018 and between a quarter and half a percentage point in 2019. Additional economic effects could
The Worst and Best Places in the World to Collect Your Debts This second edition of the Euler Hermes Collection Complexity analysis looks into debt collection procedures in 50 countries (*).Sweden, Germany, and Ireland take the lead of our ranking
In December 2017, output in industry, including energy and construction, fell by 0.6% on a seasonally and working day basis compared with November, but overall output increased by 0.7% in the fourth quarter of 2017 compared with the previous quarter.
The recent collapse in the stock markets confirms expectations that the year 2018, which is likely to bring further interest rate hikes by the US central banks and the first steps towards normalization of monetary policy in the eurozone and
