A year of divergence 2021 outlook 2020: an extraordinary year 2021: an unsynchronised recovery After an unprecedented 2020 marked by the most severe recession in modern history and a global pandemic still underway, we enter 2021 with a mildly positive
As widely expected, the core of the deal is a zero-tariff/zero-quota free trade agreement for goods. This means that EU-UK trade will be much less affected than if the UK had ‘crashed out’ without a deal, to be governed solely
2020 has been an unprecedented year in modern history, with the Covid-19 pandemic leading to the deepest global recession post World War II that has affected the most countries simultaneously since the 1870s (World Bank). This big shock is not
Interest rates are at an all-time low, and even if inflation eventually picks up, it could take some time. Central banks, the first pillar of the investment cycle, are adjusting and are resolutely accompanying governments in this final battle against
2021 Outlook and Beyond The US election outcome and the hopes that the Covid-19 vaccine will be a tangible reality by the end of the year or the beginning of 2021 bode well for a worldwide economic recovery. China is
"Marked by the most severe recession in modern history, 2020 was an unprecedented year. With the global pandemic continuing, we enter 2021 with a mildly positive outlook for the upcoming recovery, but with the assumption that the path to pre-crisis
Quarterly Update As noted in our previous reports the much-awaited global recovery from the onset of Covid-19 is facing significant headwinds. As the fallout from the crisis becomes clearer in scope and view, ensuing challenges remain daunting. The interplay between
CIO INSIGHTS Liquidity in global financial markets came under extreme pressure in late February/March, when market participants started fearing that the Covid-19 outbreak would become a global pandemic. The resulting lockdown measures threw the global economy into an unprecedented deep
Vice President Mike Pence and Senator Kamala Harris met yesterday in their one and only Vice Presidential debate in Salt Lake City. This was the second most important milestone in the 2020 Presidential election, and early indications on the morning
CROSS ASSET Investment Strategy Monthly #10 October 2020 Investors have been dealing with rising volatility in equities and initial signs of a fall in the extreme market complacency over the last few months. This is leading to some key divergences
The Fed announced an inflection of its long-term objectives by making the 2% inflation threshold not a high limit, but an average objective over time, i.e. it will not harden not its monetary policy in the event of one-off inflation
The ongoing Covid-19 crisis and the resulting market turmoil have confirmed a preexisting trend within equity investing: the increasing relevance of integrating ESG criteria and sustainability into the investment decision. We believe doing so will add value both in terms
The appetite for risk assets has remained strong over the summer lull. This summer season has seen both the confirmation of existing themes and the emergence of new ones. On the former, the decoupling between the real economy and financial
This article studies the impact of carbon risk on stock pricing. To address this, we consider the seminal approach of Görgen et al. (2019), who proposed estimating the carbon financial risk of equities by their carbon beta.
Medium and Long-Term Return Forecasts | Q3 – 2020 All signs indicate we have passed the inflection point of the Covid-19 pandemic crisis, even if this signals a clearer picture moving forward, different uncertainties are emerging. Our latest forecasts, incorporating
Overview: The Asia region was the first part of the world to be hit by the Covid-19 outbreak, but it has also been the first region to navigate a way out of it, thanks to its good management of the
As we enter the summer, conflicting forces in major equity markets have led to a period of temporary equilibrium between fear (risk of second wave, low bond yields, high gold prices) and greed (equities rallying as a result of economies
The New Silk Road routes. A significant first step in this direction was the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI, also referred to as the New Silk Road), which was proposed by the Chinese government in 2013 with the aim of
The agreement reached among EU leaders at the end of the longest European Council in history regarding a comprehensive package worth €1,824bn – including the Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF) and the Next Generation EU (NGEU) instrument – is a significant
Covid-19 accelerated markets’ entropy and risk takers will evolve their investment approaches Crises create disruption and Covid-19 is no exception, bringing new complexities, new opportunities and new risks to the investment landscape. From our research angle, we realised that the
US fixed income can be a valuable source of diversification for European investors, but in the past the cost of hedging of the US Dollar exposure was high, neutralizing this benefit. The situation has changed, and the cost of hedging
Cyclical conditions are turning more positive for Europe. Easing geopolitical risk and the prospect of massive fiscal resources (national and EU-wide) and monetary support could support a recovery in 2021. The improved …
Covid-19 has triggered a sequence of economic and financial market narratives and is giving way to a new status quo characterised by extreme fiscal and monetary measures, to which markets have responded well, though some volatility has returned in the
From a long-term investment perspective, the unprecedented global crisis caused by the Covid-19 pandemic brings along both challenges and opportunities, which constitute two sides of the same coin for institutional investors such as pension funds. Beyond the unavoidable market turmoil,
Over the past few weeks, most Western economies have remained frozen by the lockdown measures taken to contain the Covid-19 pandemic. These measures have already had an unprecedented economic impact, but the magnitude of the long-term fallout is difficult to
This year was supposed to be the year when policymakers, corporates and investors charged ahead in the fight against climate change. After the disappointing COP25 in Madrid, shocking wildfires in Australia at the end of 2019, an ambitious plan emerged
Amundi’s Quantitative Research team has been studying the evolution of ESG investing across asset classes and geographies for the past several years. With the coronavirus pandemic, we have carefully examined these Responsible Investing trends and have identified some interesting findings:
Central Banks: interest rates near zero The Fed kept its interest rates unchanged. The ECB kept its interest rates unchanged. No movement on BoJ interest rates since 2016.
Since the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic, all eyes have been on the unfolding health catastrophe and the consequences of confinement: economies halted, exploding rates of unemployment (in particular in the United States), and rising debt levels. In this extraordinary
The global background and Italy: if we wanted to characterise the contraction and recovery pattern, we would probably describe it as a ‘long U-shaped’ recovery; in other words, as a gradual normalisation which will take some time before seeing a
Cross Asset Investment Strategy The dichotomy between the false market tranquillity and the high level of uncertainty about the length of the crisis and its long-term implications is striking. In our view, we are …
Pandemic: a neglected risk On 23 February 2020, when Italy announced the Lombardy lockdown, and then on 11 March 2020, when the World Health Organization classified Covid-19 as a pandemic, what started as an emerging disease in China in a
The total portfolio approach (TPA)2 is a holistic approach to investing that has been adopted by an increasing number of institutional investors as a response to the weaknesses of a more traditional strategic asset allocation (SAA)-based methodology. With its focus
Market dislocation creating long-term opportunities Two major drivers are shaping the landscape for EM countries: Covid-19 and oil dynamics. We are mindful that current events will have very significant negative effects on the economic outlook for EM this year, leading
The dichotomy between the false market tranquillity and the high level of uncertainty about the length of the crisis and its long-term implications is striking. In our view, we are far from being out of the woods and investors should
2°C alignment has become a major issue for climate-aware portfolio management. There are sophisticated initiatives aiming to predict corporate emission intensities from 2030 up to 2100. In this paper, we focus on the significance …
In the wake of first-quarter reporting season, the consensus is probably still too optimistic At -12% for the S&P 500 in the US and -35% for the Stoxx 600 in Europe, firstquarter results were hit hard by the pandemic, even
In March, the ECB activated a “pandemic emergency purchasing program” (PEPP) for a an additional €750bn. In total, the ECB have approximately …
Investment Talks The global background and Italy: if we wanted to characterise the contraction and recovery pattern, we would probably describe it as a ‘long U-shaped’ recovery; in other words, as a gradual normalisation which will take some time before
In our latest analysis released at the beginning of the year, we had laid out our medium-term outlook as a correction of the business cycle, including an economic slowdown, yield curve inversion, a return to lower bound policy rates, and
Two major drivers are shaping the landscape for EM countries: Covid-19 and oil dynamics. We are mindful that current events will have very significant negative effects on the economic outlook for EM this year, leading many countries into recession. However,
The essential The large fiscal packages announced by governments to counter the virus crisis aim, so far, at stabilization more than stimulus. In addition to funding the emergency response to the virus situation itself, these packages intend to prevent a
Cross Asset Investment Strategy Markets (financial cycle) are leading the economic cycle and will bottom out before the end of the coronavirus pandemic. However, they would stabilise once reassured on three points: The cyclical pattern of the pandemic, or when
Does financial globalization lead to contagion? We scrutinize linkages between international stock markets in a long historical perspective (1880-2014). Our results highlight that without globalization, contagion cannot exist. However, if cross-market correlations are very high, globalization kills contagion. We show
Economic crises often lead to a reshuffling of the economic and political ideological corpus. The Great Depression gave birth to the modern Welfare State, a hallmark of most liberal democracies until the oil shocks in the late 1970s. The 2008
Cross Asset Investment Strategy The Covid-19 crisis is inducing a partial desynchronisation in economic cycle that is strictly linked with the epidemic in each country and/or region. However, financial markets appear overly optimistic as economies will not be switched back-on
Current assessment: The spread of coronavirus in Europe and the United States triggered a worldwide stock market crash in March, followed by a partial rebound. Many questions — such as the length of the pandemic and the extent of the
After closing one of the worst quarters ever for equity markets, Q2 started on a high note, with indices (S&P 500 and Euro Stoxx 600) recovering markedly from the bottom hit during the previous month. There is clearly a battle
After the first wave of the Covid-19 outbreak in China and East Asia, and the second wave in Western Europe and North America, a third wave now looks to be building in several EM and frontier countries. EM and frontier
Global HY markets sold off aggressively between February and March in response to the COVID-19 outbreak, the oil price war and the liquidity freeze in some markets. An analysis of past peak-and-trough episodes in the US HY market shows that
