The summer months have been eventful. On the (geo)-political level, the sources of tension have multiplied globally. On the economic front, the growth momentum has weakened further, confirming the downward trend observed worldwide since April, with the deepening of the
Equities still more attractive than fixed income, a resolution in the US-China trade war and stability in the global growth outlook would expose how rich US treasuries have become. . Financial asset price volatility has risen as US trade policy
Nearly 30% of the world’s government and investment grade corporate bonds now have negative yields, putting downward pressure on bond yields globally. Yields are falling due to two primary structural forces: declining population growth, which is hurting productivity, and technological
Back to school. Back to normal? Financial markets have been rattled in the past weeks over escalating trade war between the US and China as both imposed tariffs and counter-tariffs on imports. Idiosyncratic risks stories in countries such as Argentina
Medium and Long-Term Return Forecasts | Q3 – 2019 Our medium-term baseline scenario is that of a late business cycle slowdown supported by the dovish U-turn of central banks. We expect economic growth to evolve around potential for most developed
ECB minutes confirm the “package” way The minutes from the latest ECB meeting suggest that the ECB is likely to proceed with a full set of measures in September, confirming not only the indications from President Draghi following the meeting
Working Paper Do universal owners vote to curb negative corporate externalities? An empirical analysis of shareholder meetings This paper tests whether very diversified and patient investors, also known as universal owners, tend to vote in favor of shareholder resolutions instructing
Recent update on Argentina: Government’s decision to freeze energy prices and suspend VAT on certain products will complicate fiscal metrics. The country is likely to miss the IMF target of a primary balance for 2019. However, the IMF could disburse
Political crisis and possible scenarios: The Deputy PM Matteo Salvini recently withdrew his party’s support to the coalition government headed by PM Giuseppe Conte, calling for a vote of no-confidence against the PM and subsequent snap elections. On the 20th
History shows that the economy and fi nancial markets are dominated by long-term regimes that at some point come to a break point, where one regime gives way to a new one. This shift may not be easy to detect.
A widening gap between valuation and economic/corporate fundamentals Central banks seems to be very concerned about the slowdown in the economic cycle sparked by trade tensions. As a consequence, they have been intensifying their communications about their willingness to act.
Medium and Long-Term Return Forecasts | Q3 – 2019 Our medium-term baseline scenario is that of a late business cycle slowdown supported by the dovish U-turn of central banks. We expect economic growth to evolve around potential for most developed
Recent escalation: Donald Trump proposed additional 10% tariffs on a further US$300 billion worth of Chinese imports from 1 September. This is surprising, given that the two countries appeared to have found some common ground at the G20 meeting in
Investment Insights | Market Stories Macro themes We see 4 key themes underpinning the case for a constructive view on EM: (1) the most important is the Fed acting preventively to prolong the cycle and the impact on the USD;
Cross Asset – Investment Strategy CIO views: The journey from market complacency to awareness of fragilities is in full swing, and the market correction in May is part of that, as is the recent recovery fuelled by dovish Central Banks
Financial markets have been enjoying a record-breaking run of late. The tide that lifted all boats was the new wave of ultra-accommodative monetary policy, at this stage announced but not yet delivered. The conviction that central banks (CBs) will step
During the first 18 months of his presidential term, Emmanuel Macron has put through a highly ambitious set of reforms inspired by supply-side economics and the Nordic flexicurity model. While the biggest accomplishments have been in taxation and the job
A slowdown in global growth, with subdued inflation and dovish central banks (CB) committed to avoiding further economic deceleration, is a trend that, in our view, should remain favourable for bond investors. On one side, this should limit the upside
The journey from market complacency to awareness of fragilities is in full swing, and the market correction in May is part of that, as is the recent recovery fuelled by dovish Central Banks (CB). Aware investors should recognise that the
Discussion Paper Emerging Markets: Vulnerability and contagion risks… Fragile vs. anti-fragile countries This article is aimed at analysing contagion within the emerging world in the past decades, and at presenting investment strategies to limit negative effects of contagion and /
New approaches for classification and typology Once accepted the idea that the emerging world may behave like a block in period of crises (as the group of advanced countries also does), one must wonder whether one should go beyond that
Global Investment Views The journey from market complacency to awareness of fragilities is in full swing, and the market correction in May is part of that, as is the recent recovery fuelled by dovish Central Banks (CB). Aware investors should
Investment Insights Blue Paper How to discriminate emerging countries? “Fragile” vs. “anti-fragile” countries The essentials Neither the world of the advanced countries, nor the dollar block, nor the Eurozone, nor the emerging (EM) block should be considered a block. The
Thematic paper Despite a huge collapse in activity, the Turkish inflation is still flirting with 20% yoy and the main monetary policy rate is stuck at 24% for 8 months. Since the beginning of the year, fiscal policy has been
Collected Research Papers Introduction to the 2019 edition As every year (since 6 years now), the research team of Amundi publishes a book “collected papers”, which represents a selection of the working papers and discussion papers which seem the most
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