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Posts From Amundi

December FOMC review: pressing the gas on taper

December FOMC review: pressing the gas on taper

🕔14:40, 19.Jan 2022

FOMC statement: The tone of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement was hawkish, with a focus on higher inflation risks and more aggressive policy tightening. There were notable changes to the statement: the Fed retired the word ‘transitory’ to

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Central banks: a successful hawkish turn

Central banks: a successful hawkish turn

🕔16:34, 10.Jan 2022

Omicron uncertainty; inflation certainty The resurgence of the virus cycle, central banks’ reactions to high inflation figures, and Evergrande’s unavoidable default have led to some volatility in the market, but these issues have not caused any major disruption. In the

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Portfolio Construction with Climate Risk Measures

Portfolio Construction with Climate Risk Measures

🕔10:51, 6.Jan 2022

Because of the 2015 Paris Agreement, the development of ESG investing and the emergence of net zero emission policies, climate risk is certainly the most important topic and challenge for asset owners and managers now and will remain so over

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Global Investment Views

Global Investment Views

🕔11:56, 30.Dec 2021

Omicron uncertainty; inflation certainty The resurgence of the virus cycle, central banks’ reactions to high inflation figures, and Evergrande’s unavoidable default have led to some volatility in the market, but these issues have not caused any major disruption. In the

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Carbonefficient technologies in the race to Net Zero

Carbonefficient technologies in the race to Net Zero

🕔09:11, 30.Dec 2021

Although its decarbonisation has been under way for several years now, as highlighted by the strong growth in renewable power capacities, the power sector still accounts for 38% of global energy- and industryrelated CO2 emissions. – The decarbonisation pace of

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The time of Circular Economy has come

The time of Circular Economy has come

🕔14:00, 23.Dec 2021

Understanding why we must shift from a linear to a circular model is key for our future. Hard law is being introduced in many countries, especially in the EU and is going to change the way companies can produce and

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Investing in the great transformation

Investing in the great transformation

🕔07:38, 22.Dec 2021

10 KEY MESSAGES FROM THE 2022 INVESTMENT OUTLOOK The road back to 70s narrative gains traction. Secular stagnation is a thing of the past, the “roaring 20s” – a new economic miracle – a dream. Global growth will return to

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Q3 earnings season: results better than expected but doubts remain about next year

Q3 earnings season: results better than expected but doubts remain about next year

🕔12:41, 21.Dec 2021

CROSS ASSET Investment Strategy The “real” puzzle Central banks are sticking to their temporary inflation narrative, even though the latest CPI readings support the “sticky” narrative. We think, investors should look for ‘real’ returns in credit offering higher yields, together

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What is Priced by the Bond Market and Credit Rating Agencies?

What is Priced by the Bond Market and Credit Rating Agencies?

🕔08:46, 8.Dec 2021

ESG and Sovereign Risk As recently as 10 years ago, ESG was considered a niche investment market reserved for the particularly conscientious investor. Fast-forwarding to today, ESG considerations have been placed firmly at the heart of the finance industry. Consumer

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From Paris to Glasgow – Are we moving fast enough?

From Paris to Glasgow – Are we moving fast enough?

🕔15:25, 1.Dec 2021

SPECIAL COP26 The Conference of the Parties (COP) was established with the adoption of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) at the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro in 1992. Since the first COP in 1995 headed

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Investing in the great transformation

Investing in the great transformation

🕔13:38, 30.Nov 2021

2022 will mark a critical juncture on the road to a new economic and financial regime. Multiple coexisting transitions will drive the shift from the old to a new regime, that has already started in economic, social and geopolitical spheres,

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ESG is not a given, the battle for data has just begun

ESG is not a given, the battle for data has just begun

🕔13:18, 29.Nov 2021

ESG (environmental, social, and governance) investing has been making news headlines recently. With the rising adoption of ESG worldwide, regulatory scrutiny has started to intensify. The focus of this attention has been the assessment of what is effectively the integration

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Green Sentiment, Stock Returns, and Corporate Behavior

Green Sentiment, Stock Returns, and Corporate Behavior

🕔21:23, 26.Nov 2021

In this paper, we propose a new method to estimate nonfundamental demand shocks for green financial assets based on the arbitrage activity of exchange-traded funds (ETFs). By estimating the monthly abnormal flows into environment-friendly ETFs, we construct a Green Sentiment

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A new dawn for Europe? Strategies to invest in European assets

A new dawn for Europe? Strategies to invest in European assets

🕔12:23, 18.Nov 2021

Themes for Q4 and beyond for Europe  Covid-19 cases are surging but the risk of generalised lockdowns is limited  Robust Eurozone growth, will peak in 2021 and moderate in 2022-23

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Markets in quicksand: inflationary risks persist

Markets in quicksand: inflationary risks persist

🕔10:47, 15.Nov 2021

Like it or not, the alignment of the planets regarding inflation will last for a while. October saw the recognition of a more permanent than expected inflation, with the IMF officially stating that we are entering a phase of inflationary

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Asset Class Return Forecasts

Asset Class Return Forecasts

🕔14:49, 11.Nov 2021

As we enter the tail end of the Covid-19 recovery boost, authorities in developed markets are seeking to implement fiscal packages of varying degrees to control the eventual economic cool down. Much of the narrative has now shifted to the

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Markets in quicksand: inflationary risks persist

Markets in quicksand: inflationary risks persist

🕔15:26, 1.Nov 2021

Like it or not, the alignment of the planets regarding inflation will last for a while. October saw the recognition of a more permanent than expected inflation, with the IMF officially stating that we are entering a phase of inflationary

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Adapting equity portfolios to a regime of  higher higher inflation

Adapting equity portfolios to a regime of higher higher inflation

🕔08:49, 13.Oct 2021

The return of inflation is clearly one of the top themes of 2021 and the post-pandemic economic revival. In addition to the temporary effects associated with supply chain bottlenecks (semiconductors, energy, copper, etc.) during a sudden upturn, there is the

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Mounting risks, buying time

Mounting risks, buying time

🕔17:10, 11.Oct 2021

CIO Views Markets responded to mixed data from the US and China and to the potential tapering from central banks. We are also seeing inflation (energy and food) and a deceleration in China. As a result, while staying neutral on

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Markets in 3D: Delta, Deceleration and Divergences

Markets in 3D: Delta, Deceleration and Divergences

🕔09:12, 29.Sep 2021

Equities have remained buoyant over the past weeks despite some challenges (China regulation, Afghanistan crisis), primarily due to the exceptional earnings seasons in the US and Europe. Looking ahead, we identify three main themes: the spread of the Delta Covid

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Post-summer check-up: Shifts& Narratives on the regime shift

Post-summer check-up: Shifts& Narratives on the regime shift

🕔08:50, 23.Sep 2021

Investors have enjoyed stellar performances over the last twelve months. A 60/40 traditional global equity/bond portfolio1 returned around 19% on a one-year horizon, well above even the rosiest expectations of the recovery from the Covid-19-induced slump. The S&P 500 is

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Markets in 3D: Delta, Deceleration and Divergences

Markets in 3D: Delta, Deceleration and Divergences

🕔15:03, 15.Sep 2021

Special Europe: invest in the recovery In a nutshell As the European economy is recovering from the largest economic shock of modern history, we are revising our growth and inflation assumptions to the upside. Although the path to recovery is

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Markets in 3D: Delta, Deceleration and Divergences

Markets in 3D: Delta, Deceleration and Divergences

🕔18:14, 8.Sep 2021

Equities have remained buoyant over the past weeks despite some challenges (China regulation, Afghanistan crisis), primarily due to the exceptional earnings seasons in the US and Europe. Looking ahead, we identify three main themes: the spread of the Delta Covid

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European commercial real estate: play the re-opening with quality assets

European commercial real estate: play the re-opening with quality assets

🕔14:19, 25.Aug 2021

The European economy is emerging from its worst economic slump since the Great Depression. As the vaccine rollout progresses quickly across the continent, mitigation measures and travel bans are being lifted, allowing growth to revive. As the European economy recovers,

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Asset Class Return Forecasts

Asset Class Return Forecasts

🕔13:15, 25.Aug 2021

The first half of 2021 has been witness to exceptional growth in demand fueled in large part fiscal stimulus and waning Covid-related restrictions. Latest data release indicates the major economies may be at the onset of high-water mark of economic

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Main themes for investing in Chinese equity over the summer and beyond

Main themes for investing in Chinese equity over the summer and beyond

🕔12:51, 13.Aug 2021

Over the past year, the Chinese government has instituted a variety of regulatory measures that have unnerved investors. There have been anti-trust measures against e-commerce giants, new data security laws to prevent companies from transferring information abroad, new capital requirements

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ESG Thema EU Fit for 55 Package

ESG Thema EU Fit for 55 Package

🕔08:17, 12.Aug 2021

The EU formally adopted in June its new objective of cutting the bloc’s greenhouse gas emissions by 55% by 2030 versus 1990. This represents a substantial increase in the bloc’s ambition compared to the previous 40% reduction target and sets

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From growth euphoria to inflation blues

From growth euphoria to inflation blues

🕔16:01, 5.Aug 2021

Global Investment Views  The past weeks have confirmed that phase one of the ‘great recovery’ is now behind us. We have entered a new sequence: PMIs decelerating from their peaks and concerns about the spread of the Delta Covid19 variant

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European equities: look for the winners to play the reflation trade, value revenge, and ESG disruption

European equities: look for the winners to play the reflation trade, value revenge, and ESG disruption

🕔09:35, 9.Jul 2021

Today, all eyes are on Europe. While the strongest national European football teams are animating a great competition, which is also signalling a sort of return to normality for Europeans, investors’ appetite for European equities is back and for good

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July/August 2021 CROSS ASSET Investment Strategy

July/August 2021 CROSS ASSET Investment Strategy

🕔20:07, 7.Jul 2021

Waters appear calm, but there are strong undercurrents. Large economies are at different stages of their journey towards peak acceleration, but rising…

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Inflation blows on markets, and investors need to act

Inflation blows on markets, and investors need to act

🕔16:04, 7.Jul 2021

The Covid-19 crisis has transformed the world with far reaching consequences that markets are now starting to assess. The most important one being what will be left of the Great Recovery following the crisis. Different narratives are evolving at this

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Inflation blows on markets, and investors need to act

Inflation blows on markets, and investors need to act

🕔16:09, 30.Jun 2021

We are already reaching the peak of economic acceleration. What matters going forward is what will be left of this bounce in growth and inflation. Markets are pricing in a Goldilocks scenario: low inflation and higher growth at trend, but we will

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Insurers’ portfolios: re-load the income engine, go beyond the traditional investment universe

Insurers’ portfolios: re-load the income engine, go beyond the traditional investment universe

🕔16:37, 10.Jun 2021

US long-term yields have risen in recent months on expectations of strong economic growth fueled by fiscal stimulus. Eurozone long-term government yields have followed this movement in a limited way, as Eurozone economies have been hit hard by the Covid-19

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Cross Asset Investment Strategy

Cross Asset Investment Strategy

🕔10:36, 4.Jun 2021

We maintain the narrative and probabilities of our central and alternative scenarios. In our central scenario, equities outperform on the back of abundant liquidity, improving fundamentals and accommodative monetary policy. Vaccine-resistant virus variants, hawkish policy surprises and geopolitical tensions are

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Three themes for multi-asset investors in the post Covid-19 recovery

Three themes for multi-asset investors in the post Covid-19 recovery

🕔10:11, 27.May 2021

In the current post Covid-19 recovery phase, we see three main themes that multi-asset investors should focus on: one more tactical, in terms of risk allocation, and two more structural. – First, as the recovery advances, investors should embrace more

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2021 Recovery to continue and beat potential

2021 Recovery to continue and beat potential

🕔12:01, 6.May 2021

April started on a positive note for financial markets, after an exceptional first quarter, with divergent fortunes for equities and global bonds. Going forward, the progression of the recovery will likely be the key market driver, leading to greater divergences.

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Bubbles, tantrums and the revenge of value

Bubbles, tantrums and the revenge of value

🕔12:07, 23.Apr 2021

Rising UST yields amid hopes of economic recovery are causing the markets to question whether the Fed will pause its bond-buying programme. We don’t think the Fed will change its accommodative stance in the near term. However, investors should prepare

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Bubbles, tantrums and the revenge of value

Bubbles, tantrums and the revenge of value

🕔11:45, 14.Apr 2021

Rising UST yields amid hopes of economic recovery are causing the markets to question whether the Fed will pause its bond-buying programme. We don’t think the Fed will change its accommodative stance in the near term. However, investors should prepare …

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Crypto-currencies: a bubble or the emergence of a new paradigm in decentralised finance?

Crypto-currencies: a bubble or the emergence of a new paradigm in decentralised finance?

🕔08:55, 31.Mar 2021

The proliferation of crypto-currencies (CCs) and the popularity of these assets among investors has led us to question their nature, function, valuation and potential development. CCs are at the crossroads of technological innovation, finance and monetary policy.

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The unique time for US value: rotation from growth plus innovation, quality and ESG improvement

The unique time for US value: rotation from growth plus innovation, quality and ESG improvement

🕔16:04, 11.Mar 2021

The rotation towards value is a key theme of our 2021 investment outlook. As the US economy moves towards reopening and a return to normalcy, we expect an overly accommodative Federal Reserve (Fed) to let the economy ‘run hot’ in

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Investing in post-Covid-19 European private debt markets: focus on selection

Investing in post-Covid-19 European private debt markets: focus on selection

🕔16:39, 4.Mar 2021

The case for investing at the top of the capital structure. From an investment perspective, which trends do you envisage for private debt markets in 2021? Market trends appear favourable for the asset class on both the supply and the

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Understanding the Performance of the Equity Value Factor

Understanding the Performance of the Equity Value Factor

🕔13:38, 2.Mar 2021

After decades of sound performance, doubts have been cast on the ability of the equity value strategy to keep delivering in the aftermath of the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. Indeed, in a context marked by low yields, sluggish growth and subdued inflation …

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Tracking ECB’s Communication: Perspectives and Implications for Financial Markets

Tracking ECB’s Communication: Perspectives and Implications for Financial Markets

🕔12:48, 25.Feb 2021

This article assesses the communication of the European Central Bank (ECB) using Natural Language Processing (NLP) techniques. We show the evolution of discourse over time and capture the main themes of interest for the central bank that go beyond its traditional mandate of maintaining price stability, enlightening …

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A year of divergence 2021 outlook

A year of divergence 2021 outlook

🕔15:44, 11.Jan 2021

A year of divergence 2021 outlook 2020: an extraordinary year 2021: an unsynchronised recovery  After an unprecedented 2020 marked by the most severe recession in modern history and a global pandemic still underway, we enter 2021 with a mildly positive

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A thin and last-minute Brexit deal should give temporary relief to UK assets

A thin and last-minute Brexit deal should give temporary relief to UK assets

🕔10:13, 11.Jan 2021

As widely expected, the core of the deal is a zero-tariff/zero-quota free trade agreement for goods. This means that EU-UK trade will be much less affected than if the UK had ‘crashed out’ without a deal, to be governed solely

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The big shock, the big hope, the big illusions

The big shock, the big hope, the big illusions

🕔15:12, 8.Jan 2021

2020 has been an unprecedented year in modern history, with the Covid-19 pandemic leading to the deepest global recession post World War II that has affected the most countries simultaneously since the 1870s (World Bank). This big shock is not

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How will Central Banks impact the equi ty markets in the post Covid world?

How will Central Banks impact the equi ty markets in the post Covid world?

🕔12:53, 18.Dec 2020

Interest rates are at an all-time low, and even if inflation eventually picks up, it could take some time. Central banks, the first pillar of the investment cycle, are adjusting and are resolutely accompanying governments in this final battle against

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Emerging Markets Charts & Views

Emerging Markets Charts & Views

🕔11:06, 16.Dec 2020

2021 Outlook and Beyond  The US election outcome and the hopes that the Covid-19 vaccine will be a tangible reality by the end of the year or the beginning of 2021 bode well for a worldwide economic recovery. China is

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2021 Investment Outlook

2021 Investment Outlook

🕔15:05, 24.Nov 2020

"Marked by the most severe recession in modern history, 2020 was an unprecedented year. With the global pandemic continuing, we enter 2021 with a mildly positive outlook for the upcoming recovery, but with the assumption that the path to pre-crisis

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Asset Class Return Forecasts

Asset Class Return Forecasts

🕔15:02, 6.Nov 2020

Quarterly Update  As noted in our previous reports the much-awaited global recovery from the onset of Covid-19 is facing significant headwinds. As the fallout from the crisis becomes clearer in scope and view, ensuing challenges remain daunting. The interplay between

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