Recent Fed action: On 30 October the Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate for the third time this year, while hinting at a pause over the next few months. The rate cut followed the Fed’s announcement on 11 October
Economy: soft landing and light policy support. In terms of Chinese growth, we see the rate continuing to slow. Chinese GDP growth rose 6.0% in the third quarter of 2019 (Chinese authorities forecasted a range of 6.0%-6.5% YoY), the slowest
Bad but not so bad news left the market in a limbo: equity markets were more or less flat in the month, treasury yields remained in the 1.5 / 1.8 range and credit spreads also remained within the trading range
Quarterly Update Our medium-term baseline scenario is that of a late business cycle slowdown supported by the dovish U-turn of central banks. We expect economic growth to move below potential for most developed economies in 2020, a trend that will
Bad but not so bad news left the market in a limbo: equity markets were more or less flat in the month, treasury yields remained in the 1.5 / 1.8 range and credit spreads also remained within the trading range
A tug of war between weaker growth and looser policies Emerging economies have faced a backlash in the last few months as a consequence of the global economic weakness and the uncertainty related to global trade. This weighed on the
Recent developments and next steps: Following the three-month extension granted to the UK by the EU on 28 October and the newly announced snap election, the most likely outcome is that the Withdrawal Agreement signed on 17 October between the
A tug of war between weaker growth and looser policies Emerging economies have faced a backlash in the last few months as a consequence of the global economic weakness and the uncertainty related to global trade. This weighed on the
US share buybacks are near record levels in absolute dollar terms and incrementally the discussion has shifted from academic finance journals to political stump speeches. Given the impact of the 2018 tax cuts and the upcoming 2020 US Presidential election
US share buybacks are near record levels in absolute dollar terms and incrementally the discussion has shifted from academic finance journals to political stump speeches. Given the impact of the 2018 tax cuts and the upcoming 2020 US Presidential election
Bad but not so bad news left the market in a limbo: equity markets were more or less flat in the month, treasury yields remained in the 1.5 / 1.8 range and credit spreads also remained within the trading range
Bad but not so bad news left the market in a limbo: equity markets were more or less flat in the month, treasury yields remained in the 1.5 / 1.8 range and credit spreads also remained within the trading range
On 30 September the newly formed Italian government released an update to April’s Economic and Finance Document, with new fiscal plans for the years 2019 to 2022 and changes to the underlying economic assumptions. The Update Note to the budget
Impeachment process: The Democratic Party has announced the opening of an impeachment inquiry against President Donald Trump following revelations that he pushed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy to investigate the son of Democratic opponent Joe Biden. The impeachment process is long
WHAT Impeachment is a procedure envisaged by the US Constitution under which all civil officers shall be removed from office on impeachment for, and conviction of, treason, bribery, or other high crimes and misdemeanours. The term "high crimes and misdemeanors”
Recent developments: A few high-profile fund suspensions have recently driven the focus back to market liquidity and how this can affect the ability of funds to meet certain redemption scenarios. Despite ample liquidity at the macro level, some areas of
E. Warren is now neck-and-neck with J. Biden (27%) in the Democratic primary polls and far ahead of B. Sanders (15%).From her fifth-place position just six months ago, she has risen 21 points in the polls since then, while Biden
Recent developments and next steps: Early this month, the UK Parliament passed a motion instructing the Prime Minister (PM) Boris Johnson to request an extension of the Brexit deadline by 19 October, and rejected the PM’s request for elections before
In their September meetings, both the ECB and Fed confirmed their easing mode. The ECB delivered a full monetary policy package (pre-announced in previous months), combining conventional and unconventional tools, together with the introduction of new measures aimed at reducing
September Eurozone PMIs further challenged the optimism in hard data mounting the uncertainty underlying the economy. As a matter of fact, the newly released data confirmed the softening momentum of the Eurozone manufacturing and service sectors. Risks remain tilted to
This paper tries to forecast exchange rates by comparing forecasting methods that take into account cointegration and methods that do not. The first finding is that taking into account cointegration provides better forecasting results. Furthermore, the factor model with cointegration
Investment Insights Blue Paper The backdrop for global high yield Theme 1: Central bank dovishness Speculative grade bonds have been among the major benefi ciaries of the rapid turn of both Fed and ECB monetary policy stances to much more
Over the past few weeks markets have fluctuated between positive news around geopolitics (US-China trade talks, Italy and receding risks of no-deal Brexit) and not so good news around economic data (German recession, US manufacturing and Chinese slowdown). This led
The Fed cut rates, but the market expects more: As expected the Federal Reserve lowered its target range for the Federal Funds rate by 25 basis points, and now the market anticipates as many as three more cuts by the
Over the past three decades, the macro volatility of growth and inflation has receded significantly. Monetary policy strategies have gained credibility since the shift to inflation targeting, while central banks’ “rules versus discretion” motto has prevailed. Improved inflation expectations have
Food prices inflation rose visibly; trade tensions eased on the margin -> https://t.co/xi6DNKIpIl #China #inflation #TradeWars via @KraneShares
2020 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions -> https://t.co/ssZUDOyEgd #ExpectedReturns #LTCMA #AssetAllocation #Equities #Fixedincome via @InvescoEMEA
Renewed expansion of Fed balance sheet will not be QE but will affect markets -> https://t.co/FwuvTMvUfU #CentralBank #fomc #currency via @Amundi_ENG
SDGs: Challenge and opportunity -> https://t.co/a7jH6cbyIb #SDGs #ESG #SRI #UNPRI via @UBS
Favoring Loans and CLOs Due to Attractive Valuations -> https://t.co/BCH6GJic0E #clo #fixedincome #HighYield #Credit #fomc via @PineBridge
