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Posts From Amundi

Crypto-currencies: a bubble or the emergence of a new paradigm in decentralised finance?

Crypto-currencies: a bubble or the emergence of a new paradigm in decentralised finance?

🕔08:55, 31.Mar 2021

The proliferation of crypto-currencies (CCs) and the popularity of these assets among investors has led us to question their nature, function, valuation and potential development. CCs are at the crossroads of technological innovation, finance and monetary policy.

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The unique time for US value: rotation from growth plus innovation, quality and ESG improvement

The unique time for US value: rotation from growth plus innovation, quality and ESG improvement

🕔16:04, 11.Mar 2021

The rotation towards value is a key theme of our 2021 investment outlook. As the US economy moves towards reopening and a return to normalcy, we expect an overly accommodative Federal Reserve (Fed) to let the economy ‘run hot’ in

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Investing in post-Covid-19 European private debt markets: focus on selection

Investing in post-Covid-19 European private debt markets: focus on selection

🕔16:39, 4.Mar 2021

The case for investing at the top of the capital structure. From an investment perspective, which trends do you envisage for private debt markets in 2021? Market trends appear favourable for the asset class on both the supply and the

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Understanding the Performance of the Equity Value Factor

Understanding the Performance of the Equity Value Factor

🕔13:38, 2.Mar 2021

After decades of sound performance, doubts have been cast on the ability of the equity value strategy to keep delivering in the aftermath of the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. Indeed, in a context marked by low yields, sluggish growth and subdued inflation …

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Tracking ECB’s Communication: Perspectives and Implications for Financial Markets

Tracking ECB’s Communication: Perspectives and Implications for Financial Markets

🕔12:48, 25.Feb 2021

This article assesses the communication of the European Central Bank (ECB) using Natural Language Processing (NLP) techniques. We show the evolution of discourse over time and capture the main themes of interest for the central bank that go beyond its traditional mandate of maintaining price stability, enlightening …

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A year of divergence 2021 outlook

A year of divergence 2021 outlook

🕔15:44, 11.Jan 2021

A year of divergence 2021 outlook 2020: an extraordinary year 2021: an unsynchronised recovery  After an unprecedented 2020 marked by the most severe recession in modern history and a global pandemic still underway, we enter 2021 with a mildly positive

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A thin and last-minute Brexit deal should give temporary relief to UK assets

A thin and last-minute Brexit deal should give temporary relief to UK assets

🕔10:13, 11.Jan 2021

As widely expected, the core of the deal is a zero-tariff/zero-quota free trade agreement for goods. This means that EU-UK trade will be much less affected than if the UK had ‘crashed out’ without a deal, to be governed solely

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The big shock, the big hope, the big illusions

The big shock, the big hope, the big illusions

🕔15:12, 8.Jan 2021

2020 has been an unprecedented year in modern history, with the Covid-19 pandemic leading to the deepest global recession post World War II that has affected the most countries simultaneously since the 1870s (World Bank). This big shock is not

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How will Central Banks impact the equi ty markets in the post Covid world?

How will Central Banks impact the equi ty markets in the post Covid world?

🕔12:53, 18.Dec 2020

Interest rates are at an all-time low, and even if inflation eventually picks up, it could take some time. Central banks, the first pillar of the investment cycle, are adjusting and are resolutely accompanying governments in this final battle against

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Emerging Markets Charts & Views

Emerging Markets Charts & Views

🕔11:06, 16.Dec 2020

2021 Outlook and Beyond  The US election outcome and the hopes that the Covid-19 vaccine will be a tangible reality by the end of the year or the beginning of 2021 bode well for a worldwide economic recovery. China is

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2021 Investment Outlook

2021 Investment Outlook

🕔15:05, 24.Nov 2020

"Marked by the most severe recession in modern history, 2020 was an unprecedented year. With the global pandemic continuing, we enter 2021 with a mildly positive outlook for the upcoming recovery, but with the assumption that the path to pre-crisis

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Asset Class Return Forecasts

Asset Class Return Forecasts

🕔15:02, 6.Nov 2020

Quarterly Update  As noted in our previous reports the much-awaited global recovery from the onset of Covid-19 is facing significant headwinds. As the fallout from the crisis becomes clearer in scope and view, ensuing challenges remain daunting. The interplay between

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Liquidity trends in the wake of Covid-19: implications for portfolio construction

Liquidity trends in the wake of Covid-19: implications for portfolio construction

🕔13:09, 2.Nov 2020

CIO INSIGHTS Liquidity in global financial markets came under extreme pressure in late February/March, when market participants started fearing that the Covid-19 outbreak would become a global pandemic. The resulting lockdown measures threw the global economy into an unprecedented deep

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A civil vice presidential debate has little impact on the race

A civil vice presidential debate has little impact on the race

🕔15:02, 12.Oct 2020

Vice President Mike Pence and Senator Kamala Harris met yesterday in their one and only Vice Presidential debate in Salt Lake City. This was the second most important milestone in the 2020 Presidential election, and early indications on the morning

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Contraction > recovery > late cycle

Contraction > recovery > late cycle

🕔11:07, 6.Oct 2020

CROSS ASSET Investment Strategy Monthly #10 October 2020 Investors have been dealing with rising volatility in equities and initial signs of a fall in the extreme market complacency over the last few months. This is leading to some key divergences

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ECB QE Monitor

ECB QE Monitor

🕔08:05, 24.Sep 2020

The Fed announced an inflection of its long-term objectives by making the 2% inflation threshold not a high limit, but an average objective over time, i.e. it will not harden not its monetary policy in the event of one-off inflation

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Looking for hidden ESG gems: a new frontier for responsible investing with “improvers”

Looking for hidden ESG gems: a new frontier for responsible investing with “improvers”

🕔11:15, 4.Sep 2020

The ongoing Covid-19 crisis and the resulting market turmoil have confirmed a preexisting trend within equity investing: the increasing relevance of integrating ESG criteria and sustainability into the investment decision. We believe doing so will add value both in terms

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A note of caution for the back-to-school season

A note of caution for the back-to-school season

🕔08:12, 4.Sep 2020

The appetite for risk assets has remained strong over the summer lull. This summer season has seen both the confirmation of existing themes and the emergence of new ones. On the former, the decoupling between the real economy and financial

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Measuring and Managing Carbon Risk in Investment Portfolios

Measuring and Managing Carbon Risk in Investment Portfolios

🕔13:16, 31.Aug 2020

This article studies the impact of carbon risk on stock pricing. To address this, we consider the seminal approach of Görgen et al. (2019), who proposed estimating the carbon financial risk of equities by their carbon beta. 

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Asset Class Return Forecasts Quarterly Update

Asset Class Return Forecasts Quarterly Update

🕔07:43, 13.Aug 2020

Medium and Long-Term Return Forecasts | Q3 – 2020  All signs indicate we have passed the inflection point of the Covid-19 pandemic crisis, even if this signals a clearer picture moving forward, different uncertainties are emerging. Our latest forecasts, incorporating

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Investing in the first in, first out theme: opportunities in Asia

Investing in the first in, first out theme: opportunities in Asia

🕔11:43, 11.Aug 2020

Overview: The Asia region was the first part of the world to be hit by the Covid-19 outbreak, but it has also been the first region to navigate a way out of it, thanks to its good management of the

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A summer of fear and greed

A summer of fear and greed

🕔11:06, 3.Aug 2020

As we enter the summer, conflicting forces in major equity markets have led to a period of temporary equilibrium between fear (risk of second wave, low bond yields, high gold prices) and greed (equities rallying as a result of economies

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The New Silk Road routes: Why investors should care

The New Silk Road routes: Why investors should care

🕔09:57, 29.Jul 2020

The New Silk Road routes. A significant first step in this direction was the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI, also referred to as the New Silk Road), which was proposed by the Chinese government in 2013 with the aim of

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EU agreement: a powerful answer that can lift further EU assets and ESG investing

EU agreement: a powerful answer that can lift further EU assets and ESG investing

🕔09:24, 27.Jul 2020

The agreement reached among EU leaders at the end of the longest European Council in history regarding a comprehensive package worth €1,824bn – including the Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF) and the Next Generation EU (NGEU) instrument – is a significant

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Rethinking the macro and cross-asset research: what we have learned from the Covid-19 crisis

Rethinking the macro and cross-asset research: what we have learned from the Covid-19 crisis

🕔14:48, 23.Jul 2020

Covid-19 accelerated markets’ entropy and risk takers will evolve their investment approaches Crises create disruption and Covid-19 is no exception, bringing new complexities, new opportunities and new risks to the investment landscape. From our research angle, we realised that the

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Why USD Fixed Income may look increasingly attractive to European investors

Why USD Fixed Income may look increasingly attractive to European investors

🕔08:02, 21.Jul 2020

US fixed income can be a valuable source of diversification for European investors, but in the past the cost of hedging of the US Dollar exposure was high, neutralizing this benefit. The situation has changed, and the cost of hedging

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Time to play a cyclical recovery in European equity

Time to play a cyclical recovery in European equity

🕔11:32, 15.Jul 2020

Cyclical conditions are turning more positive for Europe. Easing geopolitical risk and the prospect of massive fiscal resources (national and EU-wide) and monetary support could support a recovery in 2021. The improved …

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The Bumpy Road to a “Day After” Renaissance

The Bumpy Road to a “Day After” Renaissance

🕔15:06, 3.Jul 2020

Covid-19 has triggered a sequence of economic and financial market narratives and is giving way to a new status quo characterised by extreme fiscal and monetary measures, to which markets have responded well, though some volatility has returned in the

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The Covid-19 crisis: two sides of the same coin for pension funds

The Covid-19 crisis: two sides of the same coin for pension funds

🕔14:52, 3.Jul 2020

From a long-term investment perspective, the unprecedented global crisis caused by the Covid-19 pandemic brings along both challenges and opportunities, which constitute two sides of the same coin for institutional investors such as pension funds. Beyond the unavoidable market turmoil,

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Covid-19: short-term pain, long-term opportunities for European commercial real estate

Covid-19: short-term pain, long-term opportunities for European commercial real estate

🕔11:39, 22.Jun 2020

Over the past few weeks, most Western economies have remained frozen by the lockdown measures taken to contain the Covid-19 pandemic. These measures have already had an unprecedented economic impact, but the magnitude of the long-term fallout is difficult to

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Climate change post Covid-19: A crisis at a crossroad

Climate change post Covid-19: A crisis at a crossroad

🕔15:14, 18.Jun 2020

This year was supposed to be the year when policymakers, corporates and investors charged ahead in the fight against climate change. After the disappointing COP25 in Madrid, shocking wildfires in Australia at the end of 2019, an ambitious plan emerged

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The Coronavirus and ESG Investing, the emergence of the Social pillar

The Coronavirus and ESG Investing, the emergence of the Social pillar

🕔15:08, 12.Jun 2020

Amundi’s Quantitative Research team has been studying the evolution of ESG investing across asset classes and geographies for the past several years. With the coronavirus pandemic, we have carefully examined these Responsible Investing trends and have identified some interesting findings:

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ECB QE Monitor

ECB QE Monitor

🕔09:42, 11.Jun 2020

Central Banks: interest rates near zero The Fed kept its interest rates unchanged. The ECB kept its interest rates unchanged. No movement on BoJ interest rates since 2016.

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Inflation: persistent headwinds but a possible inflationary cocktail

Inflation: persistent headwinds but a possible inflationary cocktail

🕔08:02, 11.Jun 2020

Since the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic, all eyes have been on the unfolding health catastrophe and the consequences of confinement: economies halted, exploding rates of unemployment (in particular in the United States), and rising debt levels. In this extraordinary

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Focus on Italy: macroeconomic and fixed income scenario

Focus on Italy: macroeconomic and fixed income scenario

🕔09:22, 10.Jun 2020

The global background and Italy: if we wanted to characterise the contraction and recovery pattern, we would probably describe it as a ‘long U-shaped’ recovery; in other words, as a gradual normalisation which will take some time before seeing a

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The great market detachment from reality

The great market detachment from reality

🕔17:01, 8.Jun 2020

Cross Asset Investment Strategy The dichotomy between the false market tranquillity and the high level of uncertainty about the length of the crisis and its long-term implications is striking. In our view, we are …

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ESG Resilience During the Covid Crisis: Is Green the New Gold?

ESG Resilience During the Covid Crisis: Is Green the New Gold?

🕔14:27, 5.Jun 2020

Pandemic: a neglected risk On 23 February 2020, when Italy announced the Lombardy lockdown, and then on 11 March 2020, when the World Health Organization classified Covid-19 as a pandemic, what started as an emerging disease in China in a

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Multi Asset: a solid total portfolio approach for a complex world

Multi Asset: a solid total portfolio approach for a complex world

🕔08:15, 5.Jun 2020

The total portfolio approach (TPA)2 is a holistic approach to investing that has been adopted by an increasing number of institutional investors as a response to the weaknesses of a more traditional strategic asset allocation (SAA)-based methodology. With its focus

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Emerging Markets Charts & Views

Emerging Markets Charts & Views

🕔07:52, 4.Jun 2020

Market dislocation creating long-term opportunities Two major drivers are shaping the landscape for EM countries: Covid-19 and oil dynamics. We are mindful that current events will have very significant negative effects on the economic outlook for EM this year, leading

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CROSS ASSET Investment Strategy Monthly

CROSS ASSET Investment Strategy Monthly

🕔16:03, 3.Jun 2020

The dichotomy between the false market tranquillity and the high level of uncertainty about the length of the crisis and its long-term implications is striking. In our view, we are far from being out of the woods and investors should

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Trajectory Monitoring in Portfolio Management and Issuer Intentionality Scoring

Trajectory Monitoring in Portfolio Management and Issuer Intentionality Scoring

🕔16:40, 2.Jun 2020

2°C alignment has become a major issue for climate-aware portfolio management. There are sophisticated initiatives aiming to predict corporate emission intensities from 2030 up to 2100. In this paper, we focus on the significance …

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A reporting season already hit hard by the pandemic

A reporting season already hit hard by the pandemic

🕔09:45, 29.May 2020

In the wake of first-quarter reporting season, the consensus is probably still too optimistic At -12% for the S&P 500 in the US and -35% for the Stoxx 600 in Europe, firstquarter results were hit hard by the pandemic, even

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ECB QE Monitor

ECB QE Monitor

🕔14:15, 25.May 2020

In March, the ECB activated a “pandemic emergency purchasing program” (PEPP) for a an additional €750bn. In total, the ECB have approximately …

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Focus on Italy: macroeconomic and fixed income scenario

Focus on Italy: macroeconomic and fixed income scenario

🕔13:05, 25.May 2020

Investment Talks The global background and Italy: if we wanted to characterise the contraction and recovery pattern, we would probably describe it as a ‘long U-shaped’ recovery; in other words, as a gradual normalisation which will take some time before

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Asset Class Return Forecasts Quarterly Update

Asset Class Return Forecasts Quarterly Update

🕔10:44, 22.May 2020

In our latest analysis released at the beginning of the year, we had laid out our medium-term outlook as a correction of the business cycle, including an economic slowdown, yield curve inversion, a return to lower bound policy rates, and

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Market dislocation creating long-term opportunities

Market dislocation creating long-term opportunities

🕔15:50, 21.May 2020

Two major drivers are shaping the landscape for EM countries: Covid-19 and oil dynamics. We are mindful that current events will have very significant negative effects on the economic outlook for EM this year, leading many countries into recession. However,

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Emergency fiscal programs: no choice but to increase the (monetized) deficits

Emergency fiscal programs: no choice but to increase the (monetized) deficits

🕔17:15, 20.May 2020

The essential The large fiscal packages announced by governments to counter the virus crisis aim, so far, at stabilization more than stimulus. In addition to funding the emergency response to the virus situation itself, these packages intend to prevent a

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Central banks are entering a new regime: unlimited support

Central banks are entering a new regime: unlimited support

🕔15:10, 15.May 2020

Cross Asset Investment Strategy Markets (financial cycle) are leading the economic cycle and will bottom out before the end of the coronavirus pandemic. However, they would stabilise once reassured on three points: The cyclical pattern of the pandemic, or when

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Did Globalization Kill Contagion?

Did Globalization Kill Contagion?

🕔16:59, 14.May 2020

Does financial globalization lead to contagion? We scrutinize linkages between international stock markets in a long historical perspective (1880-2014). Our results highlight that without globalization, contagion cannot exist. However, if cross-market correlations are very high, globalization kills contagion. We show

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The Day After

The Day After

🕔08:19, 13.May 2020

Economic crises often lead to a reshuffling of the economic and political ideological corpus. The Great Depression gave birth to the modern Welfare State, a hallmark of most liberal democracies until the oil shocks in the late 1970s. The 2008

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