ECB QE Monitor
In March, the ECB activated a “pandemic emergency purchasing program” (PEPP) for a an additional €750bn. In total, the ECB have approximately …
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Posts From Amundi
Focus on Italy: macroeconomic and fixed income scenario
Investment Talks The global background and Italy: if we wanted to characterise the contraction and recovery pattern, we would probably describe it as a ‘long U-shaped’ recovery; in other words, as a gradual normalisation which will take some time before
Asset Class Return Forecasts Quarterly Update
In our latest analysis released at the beginning of the year, we had laid out our medium-term outlook as a correction of the business cycle, including an economic slowdown, yield curve inversion, a return to lower bound policy rates, and
Market dislocation creating long-term opportunities
Two major drivers are shaping the landscape for EM countries: Covid-19 and oil dynamics. We are mindful that current events will have very significant negative effects on the economic outlook for EM this year, leading many countries into recession. However,
Emergency fiscal programs: no choice but to increase the (monetized) deficits
The essential The large fiscal packages announced by governments to counter the virus crisis aim, so far, at stabilization more than stimulus. In addition to funding the emergency response to the virus situation itself, these packages intend to prevent a
Central banks are entering a new regime: unlimited support
Cross Asset Investment Strategy Markets (financial cycle) are leading the economic cycle and will bottom out before the end of the coronavirus pandemic. However, they would stabilise once reassured on three points: The cyclical pattern of the pandemic, or when
Did Globalization Kill Contagion?
Does financial globalization lead to contagion? We scrutinize linkages between international stock markets in a long historical perspective (1880-2014). Our results highlight that without globalization, contagion cannot exist. However, if cross-market correlations are very high, globalization kills contagion. We show
The Day After
Economic crises often lead to a reshuffling of the economic and political ideological corpus. The Great Depression gave birth to the modern Welfare State, a hallmark of most liberal democracies until the oil shocks in the late 1970s. The 2008
Contraction > recovery > late cycle: a cycle round trip in three years
Cross Asset Investment Strategy The Covid-19 crisis is inducing a partial desynchronisation in economic cycle that is strictly linked with the epidemic in each country and/or region. However, financial markets appear overly optimistic as economies will not be switched back-on
Covid-19 will redesign sector opportunities amid gradual normalisation and focus on earnings
Current assessment: The spread of coronavirus in Europe and the United States triggered a worldwide stock market crash in March, followed by a partial rebound. Many questions — such as the length of the pandemic and the extent of the
The aftershocks of the Covid-19 earthquake
After closing one of the worst quarters ever for equity markets, Q2 started on a high note, with indices (S&P 500 and Euro Stoxx 600) recovering markedly from the bottom hit during the previous month. There is clearly a battle
Coronavirus crisis: impacts and implications for emerging markets
After the first wave of the Covid-19 outbreak in China and East Asia, and the second wave in Western Europe and North America, a third wave now looks to be building in several EM and frontier countries. EM and frontier
Revisiting the global high yield outlook in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic
Global HY markets sold off aggressively between February and March in response to the COVID-19 outbreak, the oil price war and the liquidity freeze in some markets. An analysis of past peak-and-trough episodes in the US HY market shows that
Keep a cautious stance on risk assets, try to improve liquidity management and hedge some credit risk
However, the policy bazookas won’t be effective unless there is a corresponding fall in the speed of Covid-19 contagion. The combination of the two will drive the timing of the recovery and, as long as the pandemic does not seem
ECB QE Monitor
Central Banks: interest rates near zero The Fed lowered the benchmark interest rate to 0%-0.25% after its second emergency cut in less than two weeks. The ECB keeps its rates unchanged. No movement on BoJ interest rates since 2016.
Playing the possible sequence of market normalization gradually and selectively
As the Covid-19 virus spreads, investors can assess the potential sequence of market opportunities that will emerge from the crisis. The perceived features of the cycle of the coronavirus and the effectiveness measures taken locally to contain it are starting
Modest risk reduction, looking for entry points
CROSS ASSET Investment Strategy Monthly A tactical move towards neutrality in risk exposure and an increase in hedging looks a good strategy to navigate volatile markets. Beyond that, coronavirus should be seen as a way to implement our investment convictions,
Keep a cautious stance on risk assets, try to improve liquidity management and hedge some credit risk
Contagion speed is key for markets to reach turning point Markets (financial cycle) are leading the economic cycle and will bottom out before the end of the coronavirus pandemic. However, they would stabilise once reassured on three points: The cyclical
Detecting Tipping Points
Asset classes views: Medium to long-term scenarios and return forecasts Detecting tipping points, while fixing climbing nails Central scenario: late cycle to continue and to be followed by a correction in the medium term. We enter 2020 with the conviction
Covid-19 & Oil Wars Warrant Decisive Action
Uncertainty surrounding the magnitude and duration of the global health crisis is driving volatility and testing liquidity across the world’s financial markets. In addition to the supply chain disruption and demand destruction resulting from the coronavirus, an additional, and also
Market overreactions may turn into opportunities for long term investors
Key messages At the time we are writing, major losses are occurring in risk assets, with equity indexes in Europe opening down today by around -6% to -8% and volatility spiking (VIX index above 58, a level not touched since
ECB meeting: now, fiscal policy has to play its part
Investment Talks ECB action: At its meeting on 12 March, the ECB disappointed market expectations by not cutting rates in the wake of the coronavirus spread. The bank delivered additional unconventional monetary easing thorough a temporary boost to its QE
US: Covid-19 & Oil Wars Warrant Decisive Action
Investment Talks US: Covid-19 & Oil Wars Warrant Decisive Action – Fed moves to ease financial stress Uncertainty surrounding the magnitude and duration of the global health crisis is driving volatility and testing liquidity across the world’s financial markets. In addition
The Democratic race to nomination and implications for markets
Key takeaways from Super Tuesday: The race to Democratic nomination has boiled down to two candidates now, Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders with Biden being the new frontrunner based on delegate count, market expectations and national polls. The turnout continued
Risk-taking around the 3Gs: Geopolitics, Growth, Green
Cross Asset Investment Strategy monthly february 2020 At the start of the 2020s, markets continued to be dominated by geopolitical issues, with short-lived Iran tensions at the forefront initially, followed by the news regarding a phase one trade deal between
Featured
Central, federal, regional or local?
https://prosyn.org/TdI20bp
#assetallocation #CentralBanks https://twitter.com/IEXProfs/status/1265951869895168002
De top 15-assetmanagers is duidelijk optimistischer over aandelen dan de rest. Waarom zien deze professionals het zo zonnig in? Vooral dankzij de omvangrijke steunpakketten van overheden en centrale banken, aldus @eelcoubbels @iexprofs
https://www.iexprofs.nl/Nieuws/500703/aandelen/Topassetallocators-positiever-over-aandelen-dan-consensus.aspx
