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Posts From Amundi

The Eurozone economy under scrutiny, as the policy support fades

The Eurozone economy under scrutiny, as the policy support fades

🕔11:07, 21.Sep 2023

The Eurozone economy has stagnated over the last three quarters, although growth in the second quarter was marginally positive due to strong idiosyncratic growth in one or two smaller countries. The countries that are more dependent on services, such as

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The Global Economic Dance: US Leads, China Retreats, Europe Watches

The Global Economic Dance: US Leads, China Retreats, Europe Watches

🕔16:22, 18.Sep 2023

The text "Global Investment Views – Divergences persist: US resilience vs China weakness" paints a comprehensive picture of global economic dynamics in August. While the US showcased its economic mettle, largely driven by fiscal stimuli and business investments, China experienced

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The Rise and Challenges of Green Bonds in Emerging Markets

The Rise and Challenges of Green Bonds in Emerging Markets

🕔08:32, 12.Sep 2023

A Dive into Collaborations and Market Dynamics The IFC and Amundi's partnership remains at the forefront of championing the growth and integration of green bonds in emerging markets. Despite facing an unstable global economic environment and experiencing the first-ever annual

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Bridging Africa’s Climate Finance Gap: From Vulnerability to Resilience

Bridging Africa’s Climate Finance Gap: From Vulnerability to Resilience

🕔10:48, 11.Sep 2023

Unraveling Africa's Climate Paradox Despite contributing to less than 3% of global carbon emissions, Africa is disproportionately affected by the devastating consequences of climate change, becoming the least climate-resilient region globally. While the continent grapples with the adverse impacts of

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Understanding Asset Dynamics in 2023: A Glimpse into Future Forecasts

Understanding Asset Dynamics in 2023: A Glimpse into Future Forecasts

🕔08:10, 23.Aug 2023

The recent performance of risky assets can be attributed to optimism, even amidst an uncertain economic backdrop. Notably, US headline inflation is easing, but its core measure remains stubborn, holding significance for monetary policies. European and UK indicators suggest a

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Emerging Markets: Opportunities Amid Resilience

Emerging Markets: Opportunities Amid Resilience

🕔10:16, 21.Aug 2023

The research "Emerging market resilience paves the way for new opportunities" by Monica Defend, highlights the robustness and potential of emerging markets in the current economic climate. Even with concerns surrounding China, emerging markets still demonstrate a growth edge over

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Global Shake-Up: Unpacking AWIF’s Investment Takeaways for 2023

Global Shake-Up: Unpacking AWIF’s Investment Takeaways for 2023

🕔13:03, 15.Aug 2023

The central theme of the 2023 Amundi World Investment Forum (AWIF) revolves around the transformative period the global economy is undergoing. Emphasizing the significance of this metamorphosis, the report touches upon the need for investors to adapt and evolve. While

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From Climate Stress Testing to Climate Value-at-Risk: A Stochastic Approach

From Climate Stress Testing to Climate Value-at-Risk: A Stochastic Approach

🕔14:14, 2.Aug 2023

In "From Climate Stress Testing to Climate Value-at-Risk: A Stochastic Approach" by Amundi Institute, a novel framework for climate stress testing is introduced. Diverging from conventional models primarily aimed at the banking sector with a top-down perspective, this paper brings

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Geopolitical shifts and investment implications

Geopolitical shifts and investment implications

🕔12:01, 13.Jul 2023

In "Geopolitical shifts and investment implications", Amundi outlines the transformative geopolitical dynamics that the world is witnessing. US-China tensions and the Russia-Ukraine war are key drivers, pushing the global balance towards a steady decline in relations between the US, China,

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Behind Market Optimism: Economic Realities, Asset Classes, and Risk Perceptions

Behind Market Optimism: Economic Realities, Asset Classes, and Risk Perceptions

🕔14:24, 11.Jul 2023

In "Don't ignore the economic weakness ahead", the author discusses the overall economic landscape, particularly the interplay between optimistic market sentiment and underlying weaknesses. An examination of the US, Europe, and China highlights diverging economic conditions, with upgraded growth forecasts

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Retail Investors in the Digital Era: The Influence of FinTech

Retail Investors in the Digital Era: The Influence of FinTech

🕔07:47, 6.Jul 2023

The evolution of financial technology (FinTech) has significantly transformed the accessibility of financial services. From the advent of internet-based trading in the 1990s to the increasing prevalence of mobile apps, robo-advisors, and social media, these digital breakthroughs have diminished the

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Navigating Change: Transitioning to More Liquid Assets in the Insurance Sector

Navigating Change: Transitioning to More Liquid Assets in the Insurance Sector

🕔08:04, 5.Jul 2023

The European insurance companies are in a state of flux with the changing financial environment. Opportunities like higher yield environment and closing of duration gap offer potential for growth, but headwinds like recession, lapse and liquidity risk pose challenges. Three

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Emerging Markets & Inflation: Key CIO Convictions for H2 2023

Emerging Markets & Inflation: Key CIO Convictions for H2 2023

🕔07:07, 28.Jun 2023

The main theme for the second half of 2023, as per CIO convictions, involves a narrow and uncertain growth path, an inflation slowdown, and monetary tightening close to its peak. Growth will decelerate, with a mild US recession, anemic growth

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Net Zero Investing: Impact and Integration in Asset Allocation

Net Zero Investing: Impact and Integration in Asset Allocation

🕔10:46, 19.Jun 2023

The report "Net Zero investing and its impact on a 60-40 allocation" addresses how global warming and the Net Zero transition profoundly affect investors. The author indicates that these changes will necessitate adjustments in asset allocation strategies, focusing on the

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Indian Economy and Equities: A New Decade of Robust Growth and Superior Performance

Indian Economy and Equities: A New Decade of Robust Growth and Superior Performance

🕔11:40, 15.Jun 2023

Amundi's research titled "Indian assets are poised for growth in investors’ portfolios" provides an optimistic view of India's economic and demographic future. Over the next decade, the country is projected to experience strong growth, indicating that Indian equities might outperform

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A Deep Dive into Behavioural Biases Impacting Investors

A Deep Dive into Behavioural Biases Impacting Investors

🕔12:41, 12.Jun 2023

In "Working Paper 142 I March 2023: Behavioural Biases Among Retail and Institutional Investors", the author provides an extensive overview of the main behavioural biases affecting both retail and professional investors. The paper categorizes these biases into two types –

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Navigating Global Investment Strategy amidst Economic Shifts

Navigating Global Investment Strategy amidst Economic Shifts

🕔08:53, 6.Jun 2023

The text provides an in-depth analysis of the global investment landscape in the wake of the IMF's spring meetings. The main theme of the text is the increasingly complex global economic climate, which is marked by several key trends including

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The Interplay of Ownership and Financial Distress Resolution

The Interplay of Ownership and Financial Distress Resolution

🕔14:36, 1.Jun 2023

Authored by Amundi, the research titled "Institutional Ownership and the Resolution of Financial Distress" embarks on an insightful exploration of distressed firms' choices between Chapter 11 and exchange offers. Deploying a comprehensive dataset that scrutinizes the financial and capital structure

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Bonds (and cash) definitely back on the radar screen

Bonds (and cash) definitely back on the radar screen

🕔10:30, 31.May 2023

"Bonds (and cash) definitely back on the radar screen" by Amundi encapsulates the convoluted dynamics of global markets in the previous month. These dynamics are influenced by various factors, including stress in the US banking sector, uncertainties surrounding the US

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Navigating Through Market Uncertainty: A Strategy for Resilient Portfolios

Navigating Through Market Uncertainty: A Strategy for Resilient Portfolios

🕔13:16, 30.May 2023

The report elucidates the ongoing disruption in the US regional banking sector after the March turmoil and the growing recession probability. It discusses conflicting signals between market expectations and equity valuations amidst potential Fed rate cuts and slowing inflation. As

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Managing Disruptions: Key Insights from Capital Market Assumption

Managing Disruptions: Key Insights from Capital Market Assumption

🕔08:25, 24.May 2023

Capital Market Assumptions March 2023 The text revolves around the exploration of asset allocation strategies against the backdrop of climate, social and geopolitical disruptions. The author highlights the consequences of the Ukraine conflict on the global energy supply and inflation,

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Green vs Social Bonds: Disentangling Premiums in ESG Investing

Green vs Social Bonds: Disentangling Premiums in ESG Investing

🕔16:53, 22.May 2023

The text provides a comprehensive exploration of green and social bonds within the context of Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) investing. It examines the existing premiums associated with these instruments, asserting a surprising lack of correlation between green and social

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The Impact of Quantitative Tightening on Asset Class Returns: Q2 2023 Forecast

The Impact of Quantitative Tightening on Asset Class Returns: Q2 2023 Forecast

🕔13:19, 17.May 2023

The report "Asset Class Returns Forecasts Q2 2023" discusses the effects of rapid Quantitative Tightening (QT) by Developed Market (DM) central banks. It suggests that the impact is evident across price dynamics and financial stability. However, core measures of price

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Deciphering the Implications of a Rocky Net Zero Pathway on Long-Term Investments

Deciphering the Implications of a Rocky Net Zero Pathway on Long-Term Investments

🕔13:08, 12.May 2023

Capital Market Assumptions March 2023 The annual edition of Capital Market Assumptions takes a more in-depth approach this year by considering the impact of climate change and social considerations on economic variables and asset class behaviors. The need to balance

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Unraveling the Global Economic Impact of Recent Banking Developments

Unraveling the Global Economic Impact of Recent Banking Developments

🕔08:32, 4.May 2023

In this short essay, we discuss the main theme of "A global assessment of the implications of recent banking sector developments." The text primarily focuses on the impact of recent banking sector developments on the global economy and central banks.

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US Banking Crisis: Driving the Economy into Recession

US Banking Crisis: Driving the Economy into Recession

🕔16:59, 6.Apr 2023

Amundi's report, "Financial stability concerns to tip the balance towards a US recession," unveils the escalating stress within the US banking sector, leading to increased funding costs and reduced lending. The author predicts a -1.1% shrink in the US economy

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A rocky net zero pathway. Key highlights on long-term scenarios and return forecasts

A rocky net zero pathway. Key highlights on long-term scenarios and return forecasts

🕔16:01, 3.Apr 2023

The text by Amundi highlights the impact of the war in Ukraine on the energy supply outlook and the path to net zero. The need for diversifying the energy supply mix has accelerated the shift towards greener energy sources, but

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The SVB Failure and its Impact on the Banking Sector

The SVB Failure and its Impact on the Banking Sector

🕔10:01, 29.Mar 2023

The SVB failure has put US regional banks under pressure, with concerns raised among investors and regulators. The main cause of failure was an asset-liability mismatch, resulting in materialized losses from sales of quality bonds that were trading down due

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Currency hedging policy for institutions

Currency hedging policy for institutions

🕔11:29, 13.Mar 2023

As the overall investment environment remains uncertain and the attractiveness of major asset classes is challenged, we believe it is appropriate to focus on currencies as a potential source of return and risk diversification for a portfolio. Indeed, FX has

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Play market rotations, with a focus on China

Play market rotations, with a focus on China

🕔12:48, 25.Feb 2023

Uncertainty over growth, inflation and corporate earnings persists, even though there has been a mild improvement on the economic front. These trends underscore the need to be active and well diversified. In equities, investors should stay cautious and consider playing

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The market effect of acute biodiversity risk: the case of Brazilian corporate bonds

The market effect of acute biodiversity risk: the case of Brazilian corporate bonds

🕔14:03, 22.Feb 2023

Biodiversity, human activity and corporates Biodiversity is part of the Earth’s natural capital and considered the cornerstone of a well-functioning planet. The many benefits to humans provided by natural capital are often integral to the provision of clean drinking water,

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Bonds are back: credit markets in focus during 2023

Bonds are back: credit markets in focus during 2023

🕔10:46, 20.Feb 2023

Focus to shift from inflation to growth risk This year, we expect the global economic environment to feature sluggish growth and an extended period of sustained high inflation. For the credit market, it will be a tale of two halves:

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China: back to pragmatism

China: back to pragmatism

🕔08:09, 13.Feb 2023

2022 ended in an abrupt fast-track reopening. In one month, China dropped most of its Covid-related restrictions, vowed to support the housing market more, and set pro-growth policies. We expect the Chinese economy to be separated from the global slowdown

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A strained German economy can be good news for Europe

A strained German economy can be good news for Europe

🕔10:20, 9.Feb 2023

The energy crisis resulting from the war in Ukraine has altered profoundly Europe’s economic performance and prospects. Countries have been affected unevenly, based on how dependent they are on Russian gas and oil. German industry has been particularly hard hit.

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Cross asset investment strategy

Cross asset investment strategy

🕔20:29, 7.Jan 2023

Central & alternative scenarios (12 to 18 months horizon) Monthly update We maintain the probabilities of our scenarios unchanged. Some of the risk factors we identify may occur in our central scenario, which is probably not yet fully priced-in by

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Defensive asset allocation extends into 2023, with a gradual increase in risk exposure later in the year

Defensive asset allocation extends into 2023, with a gradual increase in risk exposure later in the year

🕔08:04, 4.Jan 2023

Profit recession, tightening central banks (with divergences in forward guidance), and stillhigh inflation are primary market concerns. US inflation moderating has been a positive lately, but whether that deceleration will be sustained would decide the Fed’s stance, which in turn

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Asset Class Returns Forecasts Q3 2022

Asset Class Returns Forecasts Q3 2022

🕔12:26, 30.Dec 2022

A combination of sustained inflation and mounting recession fears, interlinked with the geopolitical situation, are the main drivers affecting the current and forward-looking macro environments. The bulk of the uncertainty is in the short to medium term. There is a

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Portfolio Construction with Climate Risk Measures

Portfolio Construction with Climate Risk Measures

🕔12:51, 28.Dec 2022

Because of the 2015 Paris Agreement, the development of ESG investing and the emergence of net zero emission policies, climate risk is certainly the most important topic and challenge for asset owners and managers now and will remain so over

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Weekly Pulse

Weekly Pulse

🕔12:58, 14.Dec 2022

Global markets ended November on a positive note after months of generally poor returns. Equities were bolstered on hopes that central banks are heading closer to their terminal rates amid looming recession risks. In Euro terms, European equities recorded staggering

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The Market Effect of Acute Biodiversity Risk: the Case of Corporate Bonds

The Market Effect of Acute Biodiversity Risk: the Case of Corporate Bonds

🕔08:13, 13.Dec 2022

In this paper, we investigate the relationship between biodiversity and companies, through the lens of corporate bonds. We focus on acute biodiversity events and address biodiversity as a risk, considering its looming losses. We illustrate the material and tangible operational

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Net Zero Investment Portfolios Part 1. The Comprehensive Integrated Approach

Net Zero Investment Portfolios Part 1. The Comprehensive Integrated Approach

🕔16:08, 8.Dec 2022

The emergence of net zero emissions policies is currently one of the most important topics among asset owners and managers. It considerably changes portfolio allocation and the investment framework of both passive and active investors. The academic literature generally concludes

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Angst in the global FX village

Angst in the global FX village

🕔15:17, 30.Nov 2022

The FX regime of the last 20-25 years was characterised by a massive accumulation of USD reserves by export-oriented Asian countries, overall low FX volatility, and a still dominant role for the USD as a ‘public good’ facilitating global trade.

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Some light for investors after the storm – Outlook 2023

Some light for investors after the storm – Outlook 2023

🕔12:26, 30.Nov 2022

We expect global growth to slow significantly, with several countries across both developed markets (DM) and EM suffering stagnation, while others may face a slowdown at best. Global growth should land at around 2.2% in 2023, down from 3.4% in

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Artificial intelligence for sustainable finance: why it may help

Artificial intelligence for sustainable finance: why it may help

🕔10:16, 28.Nov 2022

Developments in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and machine learning have led to the creation of a new type of ESG data that do not necessarily rely on information provided by companies. This paper reviews the use of AI in the ESG

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Artificial Intelligence and ESG: How do they fit?

Artificial Intelligence and ESG: How do they fit?

🕔08:32, 28.Nov 2022

The good news is that AI tools are available now which can collect and analyse more information on ESG risks and opportunities than ever before. These tools improve the quality of data, analyse it effectively and create new exciting opportunities. 

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Central & Alternative Scenarios (12 To 18 Months Horizon)

Central & Alternative Scenarios (12 To 18 Months Horizon)

🕔12:54, 14.Nov 2022

We maintain the content and probabilities of our scenarios. Note that some of the risk factors we identify may occur in our central scenario, which is probably not yet fully priced-in by markets. It would take a combination of risk

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TLTRO in the context of ECB policy normalisation

TLTRO in the context of ECB policy normalisation

🕔12:50, 10.Nov 2022

TLTRO repayments and redemptions will drive incoming ECB passive QT over the next few quarters. So far, banks have repaid a small amount of liquidity, while the ECB’s recent decision on remuneration of excess reserves has helped keep current excess

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Fast Filtering with Large Option Panels: Implications for Asset Pricing

Fast Filtering with Large Option Panels: Implications for Asset Pricing

🕔10:38, 27.Oct 2022

The cross-section of options holds great promise for identifying return distributions and risk premia, but estimating dynamic option valuation models with latent state variables is challenging when using large option panels. We propose a particle MCMC framework with a novel

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Real-Time Macro Information and Bond Return Predictability: A Weighted Group Deep Learning Approach

Real-Time Macro Information and Bond Return Predictability: A Weighted Group Deep Learning Approach

🕔08:10, 27.Oct 2022

This paper proposes a weighted group neural network model and reexamines whether treasury bond returns are predictable when real-time, instead of fully-revised, macro information is used. Real-time macro vintage data and news-based topic attention are taken into account. We find

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The autumn hard vs. soft landing puzzle

The autumn hard vs. soft landing puzzle

🕔08:59, 27.Sep 2022

CROSS ASSET Investment Strategy  While a global recession may be avoided, we are likely to see growth deceleration and high inflation (higher cost of living) along with regional divergences. Thus, investors should consider moving to a more cautious stance on

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