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ECB QE Monitor

ECB QE Monitor

🕔14:15, 25.May 2020

In March, the ECB activated a “pandemic emergency purchasing program” (PEPP) for a an additional €750bn. In total, the ECB have approximately …

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Focus on Italy: macroeconomic and fixed income scenario

Focus on Italy: macroeconomic and fixed income scenario

🕔13:05, 25.May 2020

Investment Talks The global background and Italy: if we wanted to characterise the contraction and recovery pattern, we would probably describe it as a ‘long U-shaped’ recovery; in other words, as a gradual normalisation which will take some time before

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Asset Class Return Forecasts Quarterly Update

Asset Class Return Forecasts Quarterly Update

🕔10:44, 22.May 2020

In our latest analysis released at the beginning of the year, we had laid out our medium-term outlook as a correction of the business cycle, including an economic slowdown, yield curve inversion, a return to lower bound policy rates, and

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Market dislocation creating long-term opportunities

Market dislocation creating long-term opportunities

🕔15:50, 21.May 2020

Two major drivers are shaping the landscape for EM countries: Covid-19 and oil dynamics. We are mindful that current events will have very significant negative effects on the economic outlook for EM this year, leading many countries into recession. However,

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Emergency fiscal programs: no choice but to increase the (monetized) deficits

Emergency fiscal programs: no choice but to increase the (monetized) deficits

🕔17:15, 20.May 2020

The essential The large fiscal packages announced by governments to counter the virus crisis aim, so far, at stabilization more than stimulus. In addition to funding the emergency response to the virus situation itself, these packages intend to prevent a

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Central banks are entering a new regime: unlimited support

Central banks are entering a new regime: unlimited support

🕔15:10, 15.May 2020

Cross Asset Investment Strategy Markets (financial cycle) are leading the economic cycle and will bottom out before the end of the coronavirus pandemic. However, they would stabilise once reassured on three points: The cyclical pattern of the pandemic, or when

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Did Globalization Kill Contagion?

Did Globalization Kill Contagion?

🕔16:59, 14.May 2020

Does financial globalization lead to contagion? We scrutinize linkages between international stock markets in a long historical perspective (1880-2014). Our results highlight that without globalization, contagion cannot exist. However, if cross-market correlations are very high, globalization kills contagion. We show

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The Day After

The Day After

🕔08:19, 13.May 2020

Economic crises often lead to a reshuffling of the economic and political ideological corpus. The Great Depression gave birth to the modern Welfare State, a hallmark of most liberal democracies until the oil shocks in the late 1970s. The 2008

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Contraction > recovery > late cycle: a cycle round trip in three years

Contraction > recovery > late cycle: a cycle round trip in three years

🕔12:24, 5.May 2020

Cross Asset Investment Strategy The Covid-19 crisis is inducing a partial desynchronisation in economic cycle that is strictly linked with the epidemic in each country and/or region. However, financial markets appear overly optimistic as economies will not be switched back-on

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Covid-19 will redesign sector opportunities amid gradual normalisation and focus on earnings

Covid-19 will redesign sector opportunities amid gradual normalisation and focus on earnings

🕔09:41, 4.May 2020

Current assessment: The spread of coronavirus in Europe and the United States triggered a worldwide stock market crash in March, followed by a partial rebound. Many questions — such as the length of the pandemic and the extent of the

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The aftershocks of the Covid-19 earthquake

The aftershocks of the Covid-19 earthquake

🕔13:48, 1.May 2020

After closing one of the worst quarters ever for equity markets, Q2 started on a high note, with indices (S&P 500 and Euro Stoxx 600) recovering markedly from the bottom hit during the previous month. There is clearly a battle

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Coronavirus crisis: impacts and implications for emerging markets

Coronavirus crisis: impacts and implications for emerging markets

🕔16:44, 24.Apr 2020

After the first wave of the Covid-19 outbreak in China and East Asia, and the second wave in Western Europe and North America, a third wave now looks to be building in several EM and frontier countries. EM and frontier

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Revisiting the global high yield outlook in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic

Revisiting the global high yield outlook in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic

🕔14:39, 24.Apr 2020

Global HY markets sold off aggressively between February and March in response to the COVID-19 outbreak, the oil price war and the liquidity freeze in some markets. An analysis of past peak-and-trough episodes in the US HY market shows that

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Keep a cautious stance on risk assets, try to improve liquidity management and hedge some credit risk

Keep a cautious stance on risk assets, try to improve liquidity management and hedge some credit risk

🕔10:04, 22.Apr 2020

However, the policy bazookas won’t be effective unless there is a corresponding fall in the speed of Covid-19 contagion. The combination of the two will drive the timing of the recovery and, as long as the pandemic does not seem

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ECB QE Monitor

ECB QE Monitor

🕔17:21, 17.Apr 2020

Central Banks: interest rates near zero  The Fed lowered the benchmark interest rate to 0%-0.25% after its second emergency cut in less than two weeks. The ECB keeps its rates unchanged. No movement on BoJ interest rates since 2016.

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Playing the possible sequence of market normalization gradually and selectively

Playing the possible sequence of market normalization gradually and selectively

🕔14:06, 17.Apr 2020

As the Covid-19 virus spreads, investors can assess the potential sequence of market opportunities that will emerge from the crisis. The perceived features of the cycle of the coronavirus and the effectiveness measures taken locally to contain it are starting

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Modest risk reduction, looking for entry points

Modest risk reduction, looking for entry points

🕔13:55, 6.Apr 2020

CROSS ASSET Investment Strategy Monthly A tactical move towards neutrality in risk exposure and an increase in hedging looks a good strategy to navigate volatile markets. Beyond that, coronavirus should be seen as a way to implement our investment convictions,

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Keep a cautious stance on risk assets, try to improve liquidity management and hedge some credit risk

Keep a cautious stance on risk assets, try to improve liquidity management and hedge some credit risk

🕔14:56, 1.Apr 2020

Contagion speed is key for markets to reach turning point Markets (financial cycle) are leading the economic cycle and will bottom out before the end of the coronavirus pandemic. However, they would stabilise once reassured on three points: The cyclical

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Detecting Tipping Points

Detecting Tipping Points

🕔16:11, 20.Mar 2020

Asset classes views: Medium to long-term scenarios and return forecasts Detecting tipping points, while fixing climbing nails Central scenario: late cycle to continue and to be followed by a correction in the medium term. We enter 2020 with the conviction

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Covid-19 & Oil Wars Warrant Decisive Action

Covid-19 & Oil Wars Warrant Decisive Action

🕔13:48, 19.Mar 2020

Uncertainty surrounding the magnitude and duration of the global health crisis is driving volatility and testing liquidity across the world’s financial markets. In addition to the supply chain disruption and demand destruction resulting from the coronavirus, an additional, and also

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Market overreactions may turn into opportunities for long term investors

Market overreactions may turn into opportunities for long term investors

🕔08:05, 19.Mar 2020

Key messages At the time we are writing, major losses are occurring in risk assets, with equity indexes in Europe opening down today by around -6% to -8% and volatility spiking (VIX index above 58, a level not touched since

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ECB meeting: now, fiscal policy has to play its part

ECB meeting: now, fiscal policy has to play its part

🕔11:57, 18.Mar 2020

Investment Talks ECB action: At its meeting on 12 March, the ECB disappointed market expectations by not cutting rates in the wake of the coronavirus spread. The bank delivered additional unconventional monetary easing thorough a temporary boost to its QE

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US: Covid-19 & Oil Wars Warrant Decisive Action

US: Covid-19 & Oil Wars Warrant Decisive Action

🕔06:37, 18.Mar 2020

Investment Talks US: Covid-19 & Oil Wars Warrant Decisive Action – Fed moves to ease financial stress Uncertainty surrounding the magnitude and duration of the global health crisis is driving volatility and testing liquidity across the world’s financial markets. In addition

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The Democratic race to nomination and implications for markets

The Democratic race to nomination and implications for markets

🕔06:41, 13.Mar 2020

Key takeaways from Super Tuesday: The race to Democratic nomination has boiled down to two candidates now, Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders with Biden being the new frontrunner based on delegate count, market expectations and national polls. The turnout continued

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Risk-taking around the 3Gs: Geopolitics, Growth, Green

Risk-taking around the 3Gs: Geopolitics, Growth, Green

🕔16:56, 9.Mar 2020

Cross Asset Investment Strategy monthly february 2020  At the start of the 2020s, markets continued to be dominated by geopolitical issues, with short-lived Iran tensions at the forefront initially, followed by the news regarding a phase one trade deal between

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