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ECB QE Monitor

ECB QE Monitor

🕔11:02, 11.Sep 2017

Key points for this month: The pace of the expanded APP slowed markedly in August, for all the programmes. ABSPP purchases dropped to virtually zero. – In August, the average maturity of German purchases under the PSPP remained relatively low,

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Cross Asset Investment Strategy Monthly

Cross Asset Investment Strategy Monthly

🕔15:12, 8.Sep 2017

September 2017 Cio views:  more selective on risk allocation This month’s topic: the euro’s appreciation: causes, outlook and consequences

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Play Global Upturn, But Stay Alert

Play Global Upturn, But Stay Alert

🕔10:17, 23.Aug 2017

Global Investment Views july 2017 Global economic activity has continued to expand worldwide (or even accelerate) in H1 2017 driven, in most countries, by domestic demand. Business investment has strengthened in several areas (US, Eurozone, Japan) and global trade has

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ECB QE Monitor

ECB QE Monitor

🕔15:17, 9.Aug 2017

Cross Asset Investment Strategy The Eurosystem started its QE in March 2015. The four main episodes have been: March 9 2015 (decision to purchase €60 bn of assets per month until Sept. 2016), December 3 2015 (decision to extend the

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Cross Asset Investment strategy Monthly 7/8

Cross Asset Investment strategy Monthly 7/8

🕔11:02, 31.Jul 2017

Asset allocation A real change in course by the central banks? United States: is this the end of a cycle? Eurozone: economic improvement and inflation Portugal: economic recovery Equity markets CSPP and tapering China: capital market openness Brazil: debt markets

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US HY default rates: what to expect for H2 after such a strong fall in H1 2017?

US HY default rates: what to expect for H2 after such a strong fall in H1 2017?

🕔11:02, 31.Jul 2017

Cross Asset Investment Strategy A steep dive in default rates of US HY recorded so far in 2017 2017 H1 saw quite a turn to the south in default rates of US speculative grade bonds: the trend came mostly expected,

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Bank balance sheets: for high quality, the tide has turned

Bank balance sheets: for high quality, the tide has turned

🕔11:02, 31.Jul 2017

The fixed income letter In our February commentary, “Of bank balance sheets, private and public,” we discussed the forthcoming shrinkage in the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet and wondered whether constraints on private sector balance sheets might be loosened in the

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Mario Draghi’s balancing act

Mario Draghi’s balancing act

🕔07:02, 25.Jul 2017

Highlights of the week  Markets : developed-country yields down slightly; the dollar declined against most currencies; European credit markets performed well during the week ; equity markets under the influence of forex. United States : mixed real estate figures China

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Global trade is in much better shape than one year ago—at least for the moment

Global trade is in much better shape than one year ago—at least for the moment

🕔15:33, 20.Jul 2017

Highlights of the week Markets : the German 10-year rate surpassed 0.60%; the euro continues to rise against the dollar; Cash credit indices proved resilient to the sharp rise in yields in Germany, reassurance from the Fed. United States :

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It’s already been a hot summer on the bond markets

It’s already been a hot summer on the bond markets

🕔11:02, 11.Jul 2017

Highlights of the week Markets: sharp rise in yields in Germany; the US dollar was up against virtually all currencies. Cash credit indices proved resilient to the sharp rise in yields in Germany Equities had a calm start to the

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Central banks are preparing to change course

Central banks are preparing to change course

🕔17:02, 3.Jul 2017

  Cross Asset Investment strategy Weekly Mario Draghi’s 27 June speech (“Accompanying the economic recovery”) startled market participants awake from their daydreams about their upcoming summer vacations. The 10-year Bund yield surged by 20bp on the week to 0.46% and

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The Global Trade Slowdown: Structural or Cyclical?

The Global Trade Slowdown: Structural or Cyclical?

🕔15:13, 23.Jun 2017

Amundi Discussion Papers Series This paper focuses on the sluggish growth of world trade in absolute terms and relative to GDP growth. Data suggest that world trade is no longer a growth engine and many factors (the rise of protectionism

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The Fed bets that the inflation weakness is temporary

The Fed bets that the inflation weakness is temporary

🕔11:02, 19.Jun 2017

Cross Asset Investment Strategy Weekly The Fed raised its key rates for the second time this year, placing the fed funds target range at 1-1.25%. It also explained how it intended to shrink its balance sheet: It said it would

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Cross asset investment strategy

Cross asset investment strategy

🕔11:02, 13.Jun 2017

Confidence surveys and economic indicators continue to show continued global growth, which is still driven by domestic demand. In the United States, with GDP estimates showing a net rebound in the second quarter: after a relatively weak first quarter (which

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Theresa May’s losing gamble makes Brexit even more complicated

Theresa May’s losing gamble makes Brexit even more complicated

🕔14:13, 12.Jun 2017

Cross asset Investment Strategy  British Prime Minister Theresa May called for snap elections in April both to increase her party’s majority in Parliament and to strengthen her hand in negotiating Brexit terms more effectively. A successful electoral outcome would have

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Emerging Markets Academy

Emerging Markets Academy

🕔10:48, 9.Jun 2017

Table of Content May 2017: Part IV China: Fast economic development and changing sectors opportunities    

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ECB QE Monitor

ECB QE Monitor

🕔15:14, 7.Jun 2017

The Eurosystem started its QE in March 2015. The four main episodes have been: March 9 2015 (decision to purchase €60 bn of assets per month until Sept. 2016), December 3 2015 (decision to extend the QE it until March

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The PBoC reasserts control over the yuan

The PBoC reasserts control over the yuan

🕔11:02, 6.Jun 2017

Cross Asset Investment Strategy Weekly Although the USD/CNY exchange rate has been quite stable since the start of the year began, Chinese authorities suddenly moved to make the yuan appreciate against the US dollar. Admittedly, the change was not substantial

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Back to fundamentals

Back to fundamentals

🕔11:02, 18.May 2017

Global Asset Allocation for Institutional Clients Euroscepticism is waning. Europe was the central focus of the French presidential election. Emmanuel Macron’s victory has laid to rest the spectre of significant destabilisation in the Eurozone. The markets embraced this much calmer

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The earnings after tax story

The earnings after tax story

🕔11:02, 18.May 2017

The equity network letter Equities everywhere are showing compelling returns over the past year. This amazing across the board surge can be perceived as a cause for stress or for satisfaction, depending on whether you consider this move to be

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Macroeconomics matters!

Macroeconomics matters!

🕔11:02, 18.May 2017

The Fixed Income Letter Post French Presidential elections, which represented the main political risk for the Euro Zone this year, markets should refocus on fundamentals. Better sentiment, synchronized global growth impetus, slow reflation, and potentially some fiscal stimulus in the

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US household consumption: beware of credit conditions!

US household consumption: beware of credit conditions!

🕔17:02, 15.May 2017

Cross Asset Investment Strategy Weekly Investors are still perplexed about the US growth outlook, with the weakening observed in Q1 (0.7% qoq annualised). Indeed, the gap has widened between business surveys, which are good, and real business numbers, which are

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OAT/Bund Spread : Recent Trends, Equilibrium Value and Perspectives

OAT/Bund Spread : Recent Trends, Equilibrium Value and Perspectives

🕔15:14, 15.May 2017

French Presidential Election  Interest rate differentials between France and Germany rose sharply in the months leading up to the French presidential elections and even reached levels never seen since 2011. But after the election of Emmanuel Macron (and even a

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Cross Asset Investment Strategy Monthly

Cross Asset Investment Strategy Monthly

🕔11:02, 9.May 2017

Asset Allocation French elections: towards a big bang ? Sovereign spreads in the eurozone Alternative risk premia High Yield in Europe: an unavoidable asset class Is China’s Private Debt Excessive? Turkey: facing continued headwinds The equity/bond ratio at the highest

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French elections: the eyes are already turning to the legislative elections

French elections: the eyes are already turning to the legislative elections

🕔11:02, 9.May 2017

Cross Asset Investment strategy Weekly This Sunday will take place the second round of the French presidential elections. The extreme risks disappeared gradually and, except for huge surprise, Emmanuel Macron should be the next president of the French Republic. This

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ECB QE Monitor

ECB QE Monitor

🕔15:02, 5.May 2017

Key points for this month: No major change in terms of APP composition between PSPP (around 85%), CSPP (slightly above 10%) and CBPP3. The average maturity of the German securities purchased under the PSPP remained very low at 4.7 years.

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How will the Fed react to Trump’s tax policy?

How will the Fed react to Trump’s tax policy?

🕔11:02, 1.May 2017

Cross Asset Investment Strategy The election of Donald Trump has generated high expectations in terms of fiscal policy. Household and business surveys have improved considerably since Trump's election. The promised tax cuts were expected immediately, which is more than the

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French Presidential Elections 24 th April 2017 Perspectives and Investment Strategies in the Aftermath of the First Round

French Presidential Elections 24 th April 2017 Perspectives and Investment Strategies in the Aftermath of the First Round

🕔15:10, 25.Apr 2017

The French presidential elections remained uncertain until the end: • Four potential candidates for the second round: François Fillon, Marine Le Pen, Emmanuel Macron and Jean-Luc Mélenchon, • Two pro-Europeans (François Fillon and Emmanuel Macron), two Eurosceptic or even Europhobes

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Uncertainty is also a source of opportunit

Uncertainty is also a source of opportunit

🕔13:02, 21.Apr 2017

Multi Asset The start of this year have been characterised by a paradox. The first quarter has ended with a strong performance of risky assets, particularly emerging assets in local currencies: Equities have delivered a performance of 12% in US

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The stability programme’s multiyear public finance projections: a benchmark for presidential candidates?

The stability programme’s multiyear public finance projections: a benchmark for presidential candidates?

🕔17:02, 18.Apr 2017

Cross Asset Investment Strategy Weekly United States: vigorous labor market and disappointing retail sales. Eurozone: Industrial output fell slightly in February. The Europeans stand united against the Brexit challenge. Emerging countries: Chinese price dynamics oriented upwards. Rate cut by the

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Toward a normalisation of the Fed’s balance sheet starting this year

Toward a normalisation of the Fed’s balance sheet starting this year

🕔11:02, 11.Apr 2017

Cross Asset Investment Strategy Weekly Markets: developed yields down; a relatively calm week on the Forex market. Equity markets at half-mast. Eurozone: retail sales rise, unemployment falls. US: nonfarm payrolls below forecast. Ebbing vehicle sales. EMEs: economic activity indicators are

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Cross asset investment strategy Monthly

Cross asset investment strategy Monthly

🕔10:32, 8.Apr 2017

April 2017 Asset Allocation Brexit, Trump, elections: fairly priced by the financial markets? Exiting the crisis in Brazil? Trump and China France: equity markets have not finished surprising US corporate bonds

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French public debt: liquid and safe

French public debt: liquid and safe

🕔15:15, 5.Apr 2017

French Presidential Election This note discussing the French public debt is the fifth in a series that will accompany you until the results of the presidential and legislative elections (and probably a little further). Its goal is to present the

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