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US repo rate surge

US repo rate surge

🕔17:33, 17.okt 2019

What a scarcity of reserves means for US monetary policy Tensions in short-term funding markets in September suggest a fundamental scarcity of reserves. Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell said the Fed would resume a balance sheet expansion soon –

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Five reasons to consider China as a standalone asset allocation

Five reasons to consider China as a standalone asset allocation

🕔15:50, 17.okt 2019

These include: size, diversity, and China’s unique macro, risk and development factors The accelerating integration of China into the world’s financial market will have a profound impact on how global investors allocate capital. While most agree that China is too

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Negotiations on trade and Brexit continue, but has progress been made

Negotiations on trade and Brexit continue, but has progress been made

🕔14:03, 15.okt 2019

Last week’s surprise Brexit development was that a private meeting between UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson and the Irish Taoiseach Leo Varadkar resulted in what was described as a “pathway to a deal” . After weeks of negative reporting, the

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Changes

Changes

🕔12:53, 15.okt 2019

Markets have performed well this year despite all the uncertainties. A clearing of some of those is possible in the weeks ahead (possible I said, not probable). If that does happen, risk is likely to rally. And if it does,

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Five reasons why China should be standalone in global asset allocation

Five reasons why China should be standalone in global asset allocation

🕔07:59, 9.okt 2019

These include: size, diversity, and China’s unique macro, risk and development factors China’s meteoric rise since the late 1970s has been touted as one of the most striking developments in the world over the past half century. However, most of

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Why diversification and ‘time in the market’ can matter

Why diversification and ‘time in the market’ can matter

🕔17:39, 8.okt 2019

Why diversification and ‘time in the market’ can matter Periods of stock market volatility can be unsettling but dipping in and out to avoid any falls, could prove to be a costly mistake. The reality is that there is rarely

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Global economic slowdown underlined by weak sector data

Global economic slowdown underlined by weak sector data

🕔15:32, 8.okt 2019

Last week saw important US economic data emerge. The continued weakening in the manufacturing ISM index reflected ongoing global softness, which was likely exacerbated by the General Motors strike that has entered its fourth week. However, the drop in the

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ECB: waiting for the strategy review

ECB: waiting for the strategy review

🕔15:36, 2.okt 2019

Our narrative on the US economy is relatively simple: for now, while the export-driven side of the economy is struggling, and investment in general is impaired by looming uncertainty with the “trade war” at the top rank of risks, the

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Default is Credit

Default is Credit

🕔14:31, 2.okt 2019

The strong performance from credit markets this year receives limited attention. However, the reality is that default risk remains very low and credit risk premiums generally compensate investors for taking risk. This makes certain strategies in fixed income look attractive.

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Yields through the looking glass

Yields through the looking glass

🕔15:57, 26.sep 2019

In June 2014, the European Central Bank (ECB) first introduced a negative deposit interest rate on banks’ excess reserves. Two years later, the 10-year German Bund yield also dipped into negative territory for the first time in its history, partly

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Global effects of China’s balance of payments shift

Global effects of China’s balance of payments shift

🕔14:28, 25.sep 2019

China’s structural shift and the global repercussions China’s introduction into the World Trade Organisation (WTO) in 2000 started a process which has since had a marked impact on global economies and markets alike. Its increased exposure to the global economy

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Biodiversity crisis: The role of investors in resolving species extinction

Biodiversity crisis: The role of investors in resolving species extinction

🕔18:07, 23.sep 2019

For investors, biodiversity loss represents a risk to investment returns. For instance, companies which harm biodiversity through their activities will likely have to take on the punitive costs imposed on them because of their practices which harm the environment. In

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Climate scenario analysis: Assessing the future for investments

Climate scenario analysis: Assessing the future for investments

🕔15:38, 23.sep 2019

Climate change scenario analysis seeks to understand the future impact of global warming. It is currently the leading edge of thinking for investors and businesses striving to assess how climate change will affect them. This has been driven in part

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Bank of Japan wary of deeper negative interest rates

Bank of Japan wary of deeper negative interest rates

🕔10:38, 20.sep 2019

An overview of the challenges faced by the BoJ since 2013 The Bank of Japan (BoJ) will hold its monetary policy meeting on 19 September, with rising expectations that it will join the Federal Reserve (Fed) and European Central Banks

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Central and Eastern Europe defying gravity?

Central and Eastern Europe defying gravity?

🕔16:59, 19.sep 2019

Recently-published flash estimates of GDP growth in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) depict a rather supportive picture of economic activity in the second quarter (Q2) (Exhibit 1). Undoubtedly, the quarterly growth clip decelerated somewhat, but remained laudable with Poland up

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US payrolls signal easing, UK election seems inevitable and ECB between a rock and a hard place

US payrolls signal easing, UK election seems inevitable and ECB between a rock and a hard place

🕔14:02, 12.sep 2019

A mixed batch of numbers from the latest US payrolls report last week left our outlook as expecting another easing in the US Fed Funds Rates in next week’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Headline payrolls growth slowed to 130,000

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China: source of tectonic shifts in global finance

China: source of tectonic shifts in global finance

🕔11:27, 12.sep 2019

China’s integration into the world will reshape the global financial system much like its economic integration did to the global economy  In part one of our three-part series documenting China’s changing balance of payments (BoP), we highlighted the structural shift

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Germany may well already be in recession

Germany may well already be in recession

🕔11:45, 11.sep 2019

German Industrial production (IP) fell again in July. If IP stabilises over the rest of the summer, over the third quarter (Q3) the quarterly decline would reach 1.6%, only marginally less bad than in Q2 (-1.9%). This makes the Bundesbank’s

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Italy: New cards on an old table

Italy: New cards on an old table

🕔13:07, 10.sep 2019

Having entered recession at the end of 2018, the Italian economy surprised slightly to the upside in the first half of 2019. Depressed survey data and a deteriorating industrial sector suggested negative growth in the second quarter (Q2), after the

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UK reaction: UK government loses control of Brexit

UK reaction: UK government loses control of Brexit

🕔11:03, 10.sep 2019

Parliament appears to have assumed control for this next phase of the Brexit process. Having passed a key vote on Tuesday, Parliament yesterday voted to pass a bill to require an extension of Article 50, rather than a no deal

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China: farewell to the large current account surplus

China: farewell to the large current account surplus

🕔10:37, 9.sep 2019

Disappearing structural current-account surplus is an inevitable trait of China’s economic and social transformation  A steady, but definite, shift in China’s balance of payments (BoP) suggests that a fundamental change is underway in China’s relationship with the outside world (Exhibit

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China: farewell to the large current account surplus

China: farewell to the large current account surplus

🕔08:26, 9.sep 2019

Disappearing structural current-account surplus is an inevitable trait of China’s economic and social transformation A steady, but definite, shift in China’s balance of payments (BoP) suggests that a fundamental change is underway in China’s relationship with the outside world (Exhibit

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Easing cycle underway

Easing cycle underway

🕔16:44, 23.aug 2019

An Asian central bank policy outlook There have been three easing cycles in the past 20 years: 1998-99 during the Asian financial crisis, Russian debt default and the collapse of Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM); 2000-04, in reaction to the bursting

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Doesn’t Feel Good

Doesn’t Feel Good

🕔16:03, 22.aug 2019

View from the Bond Market Bond yields have plunged this summer. The cyclical slowdown and a wall of political worries has created a surge in demand for safe assets. Investors are trying to figure out what it all means. Will

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Doesn't Feel Good

Doesn't Feel Good

🕔14:52, 15.aug 2019

View from the Bond Market Bond yields have plunged this summer. The cyclical slowdown and a wall of political worries has created a surge in demand for safe assets. Investors are trying to figure out what it all means. Will

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