President Joe Biden signed the $1.9tn American Recovery Plan into law this month, adding to the $0.9tn stimulus in late 2020. Debate is turning to the next bill on longer-term infrastructure, clean infrastructure and inequality measures …
Beyond the immediate challenge of the pandemic, the US-China relationship is the main source of global instability. On this front, the newsflow is not encouraging. The meeting in Anchorage between the US Secretary of State and National Security Advisor with their …
Chancellor Rishi Sunak delivered only his second Budget, but the first after the full realisation of the impact of the pandemic on the UK economy. Amidst much speculation that he would tighten fiscal policy to address a large deficit, the Chancellor delivered a dynamic …
Keynesians were fairly united when they were in the policy wilderness, but now that their views are dominant and they can finally seize the levers of macro policy, dissent is emerging. Lawrence Summers is taking issue …
Entering the World’s Second Largest Bond Market China’s bond market reached $17 trillion in Q3-2020, making it the world’s second largest market after the US. The low market cap to GDP ratio compared with other markets suggests still significant growth
COVID-19: Data privacy risks and potential opportunities Social sensitivities around personal information held by external parties, particularly technology firms, has rapidly grown in recent years – and it’s a concern which has escalated in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Climate Alignment Principles The Paris Agreement set out to limit the increase in the world’s average temperature to at most 2°C above preindustrial levels and to pursue efforts to hold it to 1.5°C. The Task Force On Climate-related Financial Disclosure
As 2020 is drawing to a close we want to take a step back and discuss the return of “big government” which we think may be a lasting legacy of the ongoing crisis, even if it did not start with
Responsible Investment The COVID-19 pandemic has become a test of companies’ sustainability credentials. It has served to sharpen public and investor scrutiny of environmental, social and governance (ESG) practices and we have observed that … The COVID-19 pandemic has put corporate
We explore this week the possible “exit strategy” from the ongoing extraordinary fiscal and monetary stimulus. Drawing on Olivier Blanchard’ recent research, we argue that the current EU fiscal surveillance framework may … Key points The current EU fiscal surveillance
President-elect Biden to face a divided Congress Developments continue since the US Presidential Elections last Tuesday, but over the weekend a wide range of news agencies have declared Joe Biden to be the winner in Pennsylvania, a state carrying 20
Of course, the impact of next week’s elections in the US goes well beyond the economic and financial realm, but from our narrow angle, we will follow the results across two dimensions. One is volatility: whether a winner emerges quickly
Research & Strategy Insights Considering the rise in government debt in key developed markets As cases of coronavirus appear to be on a rising trend again in the US and have picked up sharply across Europe, negative risks to the
After some U-turns from the US President and although discussions are continuing, no deal has been found on a new fiscal stimulus package. The Fed has been very explicit on the necessity of a timely and comprehensive additional budgetary push
Impact Engagement Principles AXA IM believes that significant positive societal impact can be generated through listed assets investment strategies. This is the case for capital allocation into best-in-class companies, and for engagement with companies where there is scope for change.
The Payroll data for September confirmed that the recovery of the US labour market is stalling. The fact that employment failed to grow outside the hospitality sector suggests the difficulties go well beyond the direct impact of Covid-fighting restrictions. Labour
Al drukt de covid-19 pandemie de economische groei en inflatieverwachtingen, centrale banken en overheden zetten hier steeds verdergaande stimuleringsmaatregelen tegenover. In combinatie met trends als deglobalisering, kan dit een structurele kanteling in gang zetten die de inflatie juist op een
Research & Strategy Insights The sense of disappointment on the state of the recovery is particularly acute in Europe, where the traditional macro indicators, such as the PMIs or the forward-looking components of the national surveys, are already pointing to
Monthly Op-ed The recent dataflow is consistent with our base case: the world’s economy is not experiencing a “V-shape” recovery, but rather is following a “swoosh” trajectory in which after an initial spectacular rebound, growth slows. Focus is again on
Global Macro Monthly US President Donald Trump has already laid claim to the fastest economic recovery in US history. In terms of quarterly growth rates, this will surely be the case. Following the steepest contraction on record, data in Q2
Some regions of Europe are returning to lockdown – for instance some districts of Madrid badly hit by the second wave of the pandemic. Yet, for now these lockdowns are very different from the ones imposed in March and April:
Key points The divergence between a decisive Fed and a more hesitant ECB is an interesting debate but it hides the fact that on both sides of the Atlantic monetary policy through its traditional transmission channels is facing diminishing returns.
By and large the dataflow continues to point upward for the global economy but as we expected the spectacular rebound of early summer is not sustained, with private sector job creation slowing down in the US and the Euro area
Biodiversity plays a crucial role in protecting our health. It is only by understanding and respecting its limits that we will maintain the ecosystems that ensure our survival. Human activity is a growing threat to our life support system and
Locking in supply chains requires continued reforms and opening up After decades of rapid growth, the progress of globalisation has slowed since the global financial crisis, with its fate further complicated by rising protectionism, political interference and the COVID-19 outbreak.
The bad news on the pandemic front in Europe are offset to some extent by the recent experience on the other side of the Atlantic. There, in the late spring hotspots, the propagation of the virus has been curbed again
Dutch Pension Industry €1.5 trillion ESG ‘Green Swan’ The €1.5 trillion Dutch pensions industry, the largest in the European Union, and the fourth biggest in the world, is driving forward in adopting ESG (environmental, social and governance) principles to colour
De outperformance van duurzame beleggingen gedurende de Covid-19 crisis in combinatie met het groeiend aanbod aan duurzaamheidsinformatie en kwantitatieve methoden om deze in portefeuilleconstructie om te zetten, versnellen de vergroening van het Nederlandse pensioenvermogen. En dat kan tot ver over
Just the beginning of a multi-year investment theme… Even though it feels like e-commerce has been around for a long time, just 11% of global retail sales are transacted online. 1 In our view, this should allow for many years
Just the beginning of a multi-year investment theme… Even though it feels like e-commerce has been around for a long time, just 11% of global retail …
The global COVID-19 pandemic brought disruption to voting season across Europe, North America and Japan. Companies struggled to host in-person meetings, but many quickly moved to hold virtual AGMs, aided by technology. We believe that a hybrid system – where
Outlook for the 2020 vote, and the potential economic and market consequences Presidential and Congressional Elections are less than 100 days away. However, if the elections were held tomorrow, polls suggest Democrat nominee Joe Biden would win and the Democrats
Key points Europe has been enjoying a rare moment of outperformance recently. Still, given the abundance of “cliffs” ahead, Europe would do well with a nice policy “parachute”. For now though, the US is still doing more on the stimulus
Although in relative terms Europe appears to be in “a good place” at the moment, to borrow words from Christine Lagarde, daunting challenges still abound. The virus is much better controlled than in the US, but given the lower European
Report highlights This is a compilation of key sections from our longer TCFD report. The highlights reflect our innovations in climate strategy, investment and reporting, as well as our focus on generating positive and measurable impact in private and listed
Research & Strategy Insights What is natural language processing, and how can we use it to analyse FOMC minutes and the Beige Book? Until recently, quantitative economic analysis has been mainly based on the study of hard data and survey
Research & Strategy Insights The US handling of the Covid pandemic continues to be our main focus. Some states which have rolled back on some of their reopening measures were experiencing a re-deceleration in the number of cases in the
Research & Strategy Insights In the first of our two papers, we considered the debate about the impact of coronavirus on the inflation outlook and we presented the case for a subdued outlook for Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) over the coming
Research & Strategy Insights Of all the economic uncertainties that the COVID-19 pandemic has raised, the most confusion appears to be focused on inflation. Amidst the ambiguity over the scale of the economic …
Responsible Investment Climate change is material risk – Global warming poses long-term physical risks as the climate changes, as well as nearer term risks as the energy sector shifts from fossil fuels …
Research & Strategy Insights The re-acceleration of the covid epidemic in the US is a month-old now, but last week for the first time some real-time data reflected a relapse in activity. This is still very mild and nowhere near
Het pensioenakkoord heeft verstrekkende gevolgen voor het beleggingsbeleid van Nederlandse pensioenfondsen en kan leiden tot een verschuiving van circa €500 miljard aan pensioenvermogen. Dit blijkt uit doorrekeningen van het voorliggende pensioenakkoord door AXA Investment Managers. De Franse assetmanager organiseerde dinsdag
Key points A genuine gap is emerging between the US and Europe on the pandemic front So far differences in policy initiatives on either side of the Atlantic have made up for this short-coming Interdependency of virus control, policy and
Overcoming constraints The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in an unprecedented response from governments and central banks worldwide. In previous papers, we looked into US fiscal and monetary stimulus to alleviate the shock on the economy1 , considered …
Key points The gap between the US and Europe on the pandemic front is getting wider – the US responds to market wobbles by more stimulus announcements. We explore the “feedback loop” between state guarantees to business loans and fiscal
Industrial automation is growing Robotics adoption is highly concentrated China is leading industrial automation adoption
Key points Bad news on the pandemic front triggered some measure of market turmoil last week. Contagion from equity to credit market was limited though. Central bank support shows. We take a look at money supply growth. It may ultimately
The reform of the currency is mainly symbolic In 2019, the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU1 ) initiated a shift from the CFA franc, the local currency, to a newly created currency – the eco. This marked the
Deciphering policy signals from the National People’s Congress As part of our ongoing series considering international policy responses and their effectiveness during the COVID-19 pandemic, we consider the implications of China’s latest policy announcements at this year’s National People’s Congress
Research & Strategy Insights We think at this stage the gyrations in economic activity merely reflect the mechanical supply-side reactions to the changes in the lockdown constraints. These movements – for instance the unexpected decline in US unemployment last Friday
