Research & Strategy Insights While the market is understandably more sensitive to the newsflow around a potential vaccine than to economic data, we still focus on the “background noise” which is likely to accompany the mechanical rebound …
As larger economies move from peak lockdown to gradual re-opening, each region exhibits its own risks to the broader recovery. The US appears to be gambling on a trade-off between easing restrictions relatively early and the chances of a second
A very specific characteristic of the current recession is that, at least in advanced economies, income – massively protected by fiscal policy – is falling much less than consumption. This is generating a very significant saving overhang. This is reflected
Strategy update The volatility of recent months pushed credit spreads well wide of historic norms, peaking around mid-march at levels last seen during the 2008/2009 Credit Crisis. In the face of this market turmoil, the broad US high yield market
Developing nations face multiple shocks with uneven ammunition To date, emerging markets appear to have coped relatively well with the pandemic, with fears of a largescale humanitarian crisis so far misplaced. However, Iran, Russia and Turkey remain hot spots. Multiple
The ECB has to deal with a nasty form of circularity: doubts on its capacity to break its self-imposed limits – further fueled by the recent decision of the German Constitutional Court – trigger bond offloading in some of …
AXA Investment Managers ‘Onder Economen Lunch’ Virtuele meeting, dinsdag 12 mei 2020 Overheden en centrale banken hebben met hun noodingrepen erger voorkomen en op financiële markten gloort herstel, maar de vooruitzichten per sector liggen mijlen uiteen en voor de economie
Many of the companies within the Digital Economy have been well placed to assist with the challenges presented by government enforced policies of Stay at Home and Work from Home during the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, this is
Small, open economies such as Singapore, Vietnam and Malaysia are the most exposed to final demand from the US, Europe and China. This makes them the most vulnerable to the coronavirus growth interruption. Thailand and Hong Kong have the largest
The battle against the COVID-19 pandemic will incur a huge cost to the global economy. We anticipate healthcare systems, governments, financial institutions and companies will need hundreds of billions dollars to cope with and recover from the crisis. According to
Research & Strategy Insights Most continental European countries have by now relaxed the conditions of their lockdown to some extent or are about to do so. We continue to expect a much better second half of 2020, but we are
Different labour market policies result in different recovery shapes. In our most recent publication1 , we presented a number of real-time metrics which we would use to ground our forecasts in the economic data reality as it emerged. In this
Until recently, in relative terms, Japan has not been as heavily impacted by the spread of the coronavirus pandemic. However, Japan’s official cases have increased in recent weeks, leading the government to declare a state of emergency. Most sectors will
Research & Strategy Insights Flows of new bank loans to the corporate sector reached a record high in March in the Euro area, and the European Central Bank (ECB)’s Bank Lending Survey suggests that credit institutions are planning to ease
Theme of the month: Slowly coming out of limbo International economies find themselves in different stages of lockdown. China has eased most restrictions, but economic activity is struggling to make a full recovery. Europe and the US both went into
The economic shutdown due to the coronavirus pandemic has led to a steep fall in greenhouse gas emissions around the world. Estimates suggest it has fallen by a quarter. This means that global carbon emissions may end up having reached
Gilles Moëc's Macrocast As advanced economies are on the brink of exiting lockdown, we explore again what could be the profile of growth this year. Mechanically, entering and exiting lockdown, even gradually for the latter, would result in massive gyrations
Monthly Investment Strategy Key points As some capacity is being re-created in healthcare systems, exiting lockdown by mid-May looks doable. We think it will be a subdued rebound though, and economic policy will need to help “for the long haul”.
Key points Exits from lockdown are on the horizon even if we need to be prudent The US policy response is massive but designed in haste. Some re-thinking is needed. Massive green investment is the way to avoid turning the
Length of the equity slump likely to be at the shorter end of previous drawdowns The uniqueness of different bear market triggers leaves little convincing evidence of recurring patterns to aid market timing. We see limited merit in attempting to
Key points The recession in the first half of 2020 is deeper than initially thought, but markets focus on a rebound in 2H. We remain circumspect on the relief the Eurogroup’s package can bring to fragile member states Policy-makers need
Research & Strategy Insights Revised growth forecasts and the key assumptions shaping them As the total number of coronavirus cases approaches 1.5mn and lockdowns extend across many countries, we present our updated thoughts on the virus’s impact on economies worldwide.
The growth of responsible investment over the past decade has largely coincided with the longest stock market bull-run in history. This has meant that we have not been able to observe how companies with different environmental, social and governance (ESG)
Research & Strategy Insights Key points • The deterioration in the US labour market is steep • It seems the US is far from “peak epidemic”, consistent with a longer lockdown than in Europe, delaying the rebound in the world
How much does a lockdown cost? Economic forecasting in the current environment is obviously incredibly more difficult than usual and can even be a perfectly superfluous activity in the face of the sanitary emergency. Still, we need to build some
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