What a scarcity of reserves means for US monetary policy Tensions in short-term funding markets in September suggest a fundamental scarcity of reserves. Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell said the Fed would resume a balance sheet expansion soon –
These include: size, diversity, and China’s unique macro, risk and development factors The accelerating integration of China into the world’s financial market will have a profound impact on how global investors allocate capital. While most agree that China is too
Last week’s surprise Brexit development was that a private meeting between UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson and the Irish Taoiseach Leo Varadkar resulted in what was described as a “pathway to a deal” . After weeks of negative reporting, the
Markets have performed well this year despite all the uncertainties. A clearing of some of those is possible in the weeks ahead (possible I said, not probable). If that does happen, risk is likely to rally. And if it does,
These include: size, diversity, and China’s unique macro, risk and development factors China’s meteoric rise since the late 1970s has been touted as one of the most striking developments in the world over the past half century. However, most of
Why diversification and ‘time in the market’ can matter Periods of stock market volatility can be unsettling but dipping in and out to avoid any falls, could prove to be a costly mistake. The reality is that there is rarely
Last week saw important US economic data emerge. The continued weakening in the manufacturing ISM index reflected ongoing global softness, which was likely exacerbated by the General Motors strike that has entered its fourth week. However, the drop in the
Our narrative on the US economy is relatively simple: for now, while the export-driven side of the economy is struggling, and investment in general is impaired by looming uncertainty with the “trade war” at the top rank of risks, the
The strong performance from credit markets this year receives limited attention. However, the reality is that default risk remains very low and credit risk premiums generally compensate investors for taking risk. This makes certain strategies in fixed income look attractive.
In June 2014, the European Central Bank (ECB) first introduced a negative deposit interest rate on banks’ excess reserves. Two years later, the 10-year German Bund yield also dipped into negative territory for the first time in its history, partly
China’s structural shift and the global repercussions China’s introduction into the World Trade Organisation (WTO) in 2000 started a process which has since had a marked impact on global economies and markets alike. Its increased exposure to the global economy
For investors, biodiversity loss represents a risk to investment returns. For instance, companies which harm biodiversity through their activities will likely have to take on the punitive costs imposed on them because of their practices which harm the environment. In
Climate change scenario analysis seeks to understand the future impact of global warming. It is currently the leading edge of thinking for investors and businesses striving to assess how climate change will affect them. This has been driven in part
An overview of the challenges faced by the BoJ since 2013 The Bank of Japan (BoJ) will hold its monetary policy meeting on 19 September, with rising expectations that it will join the Federal Reserve (Fed) and European Central Banks
Recently-published flash estimates of GDP growth in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) depict a rather supportive picture of economic activity in the second quarter (Q2) (Exhibit 1). Undoubtedly, the quarterly growth clip decelerated somewhat, but remained laudable with Poland up
A mixed batch of numbers from the latest US payrolls report last week left our outlook as expecting another easing in the US Fed Funds Rates in next week’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Headline payrolls growth slowed to 130,000
China’s integration into the world will reshape the global financial system much like its economic integration did to the global economy In part one of our three-part series documenting China’s changing balance of payments (BoP), we highlighted the structural shift
German Industrial production (IP) fell again in July. If IP stabilises over the rest of the summer, over the third quarter (Q3) the quarterly decline would reach 1.6%, only marginally less bad than in Q2 (-1.9%). This makes the Bundesbank’s
Having entered recession at the end of 2018, the Italian economy surprised slightly to the upside in the first half of 2019. Depressed survey data and a deteriorating industrial sector suggested negative growth in the second quarter (Q2), after the
Parliament appears to have assumed control for this next phase of the Brexit process. Having passed a key vote on Tuesday, Parliament yesterday voted to pass a bill to require an extension of Article 50, rather than a no deal
Disappearing structural current-account surplus is an inevitable trait of China’s economic and social transformation A steady, but definite, shift in China’s balance of payments (BoP) suggests that a fundamental change is underway in China’s relationship with the outside world (Exhibit
Disappearing structural current-account surplus is an inevitable trait of China’s economic and social transformation A steady, but definite, shift in China’s balance of payments (BoP) suggests that a fundamental change is underway in China’s relationship with the outside world (Exhibit
An Asian central bank policy outlook There have been three easing cycles in the past 20 years: 1998-99 during the Asian financial crisis, Russian debt default and the collapse of Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM); 2000-04, in reaction to the bursting
View from the Bond Market Bond yields have plunged this summer. The cyclical slowdown and a wall of political worries has created a surge in demand for safe assets. Investors are trying to figure out what it all means. Will
View from the Bond Market Bond yields have plunged this summer. The cyclical slowdown and a wall of political worries has created a surge in demand for safe assets. Investors are trying to figure out what it all means. Will
#Bonds – Losing my Religion -> https://t.co/sv0ec7JDnR #fixedincome #governmentbonds #highyield #emergingmarketdebt via @Investec
Varps Remains Compelling -> https://t.co/X9Ij0XLVpQ #EmergingMarkets #frontiermarkets via @GAMinsights
Varps Remains Compelling -> https://t.co/X9Ij0XLVpQ #VARPS #EmergingMarkets #Equities via @GAMinsights
The SRI Chronicles -> https://t.co/Fvk5LpkOvX #SRI #ESG #UNPRI #ClimateCrisis via @EdeRothschild
With diverging credit and domestic demand trends in China, our expert #Anthony_Chan identifies the two main factors to watch. Read on.
