In "Focusing on the Long Run", the text underlines the importance of strategic asset allocation (SAA) in securing long-term investment objectives, with a focus on wealth preservation and risk-return optimization. Understanding client-specific factors such as liquidity, lifestyle, aspirational goals, risk
In the latest edition of In Focus, the Chief Investment Office discusses the current state of capital markets and the potential implications for investors. Despite ongoing volatility, there are reasons for optimism as we look ahead. Opportunities and Challenges in
QIS Insights In what has been a tumultuous period for financial markets due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the subsequent recovery, we take this opportunity to assess the Cyclically-Adjusted Price-to-Earnings (CAPE) ratios across five major equity markets …
QIS Insights We review the current CAPE ratios to get a sense of where they currently stand, but given the low levels of interest rates across the five major economies, we also create an Excess CAPE Yield measure, defined as
It’s been a breathtaking start to the year in capital markets. A global pandemic looks to be about to end the longest US expansion in well over a century, with a global recession now expected by many. Difficult times lie
Compass 2020 Outlook Signing off 2019 and ushering in 2020 As the world economy revives unsteadily from its latest swoon, we use this edition of Compass to discuss both what happened in 2019 and some things to think about for
Outlook 2020 After years of positive and predictable growth, the outlook for the global economy became far more challenging in 2019 (see chart). The range of potential culprits for the caution include trade wars, political and social instability in Europe,
Compass In this quarter’s publication, we focus on Europe – in particular to see if it is still an attractive place to invest despite the apparent headwinds. Europe can often appear a somewhat unwitting victim of events outside of its
Persistent trade tensions and rising geopolitical risks are taking their toll on the global economy. Indeed, Germany appears close to recession. But this is due to its high exposure to manufacturing, which has been the main victim of the ongoing
Risk assets sold off in August as yield inversion in the US rates curve raised fears that a recession was near. That said, bull market corrections are common, the largest correction in any year being around 10% since 1988. We
The energy industry is essential to almost all economic and human activity, and lies at the heart of both important opportunities and challenges faced by the world today. The sector provides power, transport, heating and supports industry and livelihoods in
Review of 2018, Preview of 2019 If the experience of investors could be described in meteorological terms, 2018 would surely be represented by cold drizzle punctuated by infrequent, but fairly terrifying, thunderstorms. The reliably warm and nourishing sunshine of 2017
The latest On Tuesday last week, UK and EU negotiators announced that they had agreed to a final draft of the withdrawal agreement, a major milestone in the Brexit process. Unsurprisingly however, there seems to be plenty of disappointment on
After a sustained period of almost perfect calm in capital markets, with most assets riding on the coat-tails of a synchronised acceleration in global growth, 2018 has provided a very different experience for investors. While the US economy surged on
The latest On Tuesday last week, UK and EU negotiators announced that they had agreed to a final draft of the withdrawal agreement, a major milestone in the Brexit process. Unsurprisingly however, there seems to be plenty of disappointment on
Work is at the centre of most of our lives. We work for all kinds of reasons, ranging from the obvious income to factors more related to social context. Economists have several theories about how the labour market links to
Work is at the centre of most of our lives. We work for all kinds of reasons, ranging from the obvious income to factors more related to social context. Economists have several theories about how the labour market links to
“The bottom line is that we still don’t think it is too late to invest, even in a cycle with a few grey hairs.” The economic cycle – signs of age Should there be a Universal Basic Income? How the
Going into this year our tagline was ‘positive but bumpier’, that we saw stocks doing better than bonds but with more bouts of volatility. And after stock markets had their strongest January for 30 years, volatility returned with a bang
“With no recession on the horizon, strong and broadening global economic growth, limited signs of economic excess, and inflation still relatively contained, we believe it makes sense to put your money to work.” Too much faith in institutions? Manager selection
“With no recession on the horizon, strong and broadening global economic growth, limited signs of economic excess, and inflation still relatively contained, we believe it makes sense to put your money to work.” Too much faith in institutions? Manager selection
Lesson 1 – the madness of crowds The multiplying frenzy surrounding bitcoin is being fed by little more than price momentum (Figure 1). There has been no commensurate (or even perceptible) change in the fundamental prospects of the crypto-currency this
In Focus In the past, a positive relationship could be observed in the US between the average earnings yield (earnings/price) of the S&P 500 index and government bond yields. This relationship has become popular as the ‘Fed model’ and states
In Focus As widely expected, The Federal Reserve (Fed) announced this week that it will begin inching away from its audacious post-crisis monetary experiment in October, by reducing the amount of Treasury and MBS holdings on its balance sheet. With
In Focus High yield bonds – sometimes less charitably referred to as junk credit – are fixed income securities with a lower credit rating than investment grade corporate bonds or Treasuries. These bonds are believed to have a higher risk
In Focus Relations between The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) and the US have been unevenly deteriorating since the July 27th 1953 armistice formally, but still to this day not legally, ended the Korean War. Since then, events and
In Focus: Markets as we see them Investors (and human beings) have not had to search hard for things to worry about in recent weeks. From a posturing peacock with nuclear feathers on the Korean peninsula to the unhealthy game
In Focus: Markets as we see them The need for approval or even adoration is nothing new in our leaders. Whether this is even more the case in a world where a reality TV star can become President of the
The long debate about the small cap effect The idea of a premium for investing in smaller companies has been around since at least the early 1980s. The common view is that small companies tend to be riskier (or we
In Focus: Markets as we see them Black swans Ten years ago, on 9th August 2007, the French bank BNP Paribas froze three of their funds, citing a complete evaporation of market liquidity, thus marking the beginnings of a credit
White Paper Barclays’ Investment Philosophy is the cornerstone of our client offering. Based on our clients’ unique needs, it is designed to provide personalised investment portfolios, delivering sustainable growth and risk management through diversified investments across multiple asset classes. Why
In Focus: Markets as we see them After a busy week for economic data, we are again left arguing that the prospects for the world economy look well founded. Business confidence remains at encouraging levels around the world, while activity
In Focus: Markets as we see them The US election prompted many in the market to dramatically reassess their inflation expectations. Large chunks of President Trump’s legislative agenda were deemed inflationary – from the renegotiation of NAFTA to the proposed
Global trade revival – how to profit? B itter medicine The changing world of Emerging Markets Equities Emerging debt and reform – a closer look at Argentina and Brazil Emerging markets and a new virtuous cycle
In Focus: Markets as we see them Shares in the technology sector have soared in the first half of the year, up some 24%. Comparisons with the 2000 tech bubble are multiplying amongst nervous commentators. The technology sector has been
Bitcoinmania In the financial industry, investors are regularly exposed to new fads. The latest is bitcoin, which has surged by more than 30000% since August 2011 (Figure 1), providing an astounding annualised return of 160%. Putting aside its astronomical performance,
In Focus: Markets as we see them In our view, the sharp bond market rally seen over the last quarter represents an overreaction to a likely temporary lull in inflation alongside an entirely predictable US congressional logjam. On this week’s
In Focus: Markets as we see them Soothsayers around the world continue to wilt in the face of an incoming reality that bears scant resemblance to their forecasts. A politically and economically resurgent Europe is perhaps the biggest jolt to
In Focus: Markets as we see them Investment conclusion: Would-be investors lacking both a time machine and the awfully well-rewarded ability to predict the stock market would be better served by aiming to “buy now, sell later – much later”
In Focus: Markets as we see them Hung Parliament Fresh elections have delivered no clear winner. A minority conservative government looks the most likely outcome from last night, with the conservatives reliant on an alliance with Northern Ireland's ideologically aligned
In Focus: Markets as we see them Oil markets have struggled for direction since resurging from the lows plumbed in the first half of last year. OPEC is clearly trying to do its bit on the supply side, with the
In Focus: Markets as we see them The US consumer is re-levering again after a much briefer bout of contrition than many were looking for. Moody’s downgraded its rating on Chinese debt for the first time since 1989 on Wednesday.
In Focus: Markets as we see them We wrote last week about the dangers of breathing too large a sigh of relief in the wake of Emmanuel Macron’s clearly cathartic victory in the recent French elections – the point being
Nothing more to worry about? For months, even years, last weekend’s French presidential elections have lurked in investors’ collective subconscious, growing in menace with every poll that told us of Marine Le Pen’s creeping popularity. Identified by many as the
In Focus: Markets as we see them The Halloween Indicator – With equity markets having done well recently, investors may be wondering whether they should follow the much-touted advice to ‘sell in May and go away’ Arbitrage – Besides being
Q2 2017 Opportunities in European credit and equity European banks – not for the faint-hearted Property – the right time for value-add? Averaging-in – a smoother start, but at what cost? Pulling the trigger
In Focus: Markets as we see them As we nervously pace the no man’s land between the first round and the second round of the French presidential elections, many continue to wonder about the health of the world’s economy. Surveys
In Focus: Markets as we see them Market nerves have predictably been jangling a little more visibly as this weekend’s first round of the French presidential election has neared. A narrowing race containing two candidates promising to upset the global
