Weekly commentary We see a higher inflation regime in the medium term after a decade of inflation persistently undershooting central bank targets. Three new forces are at play: rising global production cost, new central bank policy frameworks that allow for …
Weekly commentary The broad macro backdrop has been improving, risk assets have rallied a long way, and increasing market volatility points to risks that investors will need to navigate as the U.S. presidential election draws closer. All this leaves us …
Weekly commentary Markets have rallied sharply from their virus lows, driven by the policy revolution and economic restart. Tighter valuations increase the risk of volatility, particularly ahead of divisive U.S. elections. Last week’s equity selloff illustrates this. Against …
Weekly commentary The pandemic has sped up key structural trends and triggered substantial market swings, precipitating an urgent need to rethink strategic asset allocations. Among …
Weekly commentary A prolonged period of U.S. dollar gains has reversed abruptly. The policy revolution to cushion the pandemic’s blow is a key driver, as it has eroded the dollar’s interest rate advantage and helped lift risk appetite off its
Weekly commentary Corporate earnings estimates look to be troughing as economies reopen with fits and starts. We have increased our overweight in the quality factor because we see it as most resilient to the dynamics of a choppy activity restart,
The tectonic shift toward sustainability is gaining pace. We highlight an underappreciated climate-related risk to portfolios: water stress. Negotiations have kicked off over the size and make-up of a new U.S. fiscal package as key benefits are set to expire
We consider European stocks the most attractive regional exposure to a multispeed global restart, especially versus emerging markets outside of north Asia. We could see a $1-1.5 trillion U.S. fiscal package that extends some, but not all, federal stimulus measures
An understated risk The global pandemic has reinforced the importance of resilience in investment portfolios. This includes sustainability-related risks that investors may have been underappreciating, ranging from vulnerable global supply chains to health and safety issues. We believe increased asset
Weekly commentary We recently moved to a strategic overweight on credit after being underweight for the past year. Cheaper valuations compensated for the risk of corporate defaults and downgrades in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic, in our view. We
We downgrade U.S. equities to neutral after a strong run amid surging COVID-19 cases and risks of fading fiscal stimulus. We are tracking the interplay of containment measures and mobility changes on activity as economies have started to reopen. Markets
The world was quickly thrust into a health crisis and economic tailspin that neither individuals nor businesses saw coming. The stress has prompted talk of companies having to reduce or eliminate their dividend payments to preserve operating capital. Tony DeSpirito
The virus shock is accelerating key structural trends. We update our three investment themes and investment views against this backdrop. We are tracking the interplay of containment measures and mobility changes on activity as economies have started to reopen. Markets
2020 midyear outlook The future is running at us. The coronavirus shock is accelerating structural trends in inequality, globalization, macro policy and sustainability. This is fundamentally reshaping the investment landscape …
BII Global weekly commentary We are warming up to European assets as the region steps up its policy response and demonstrates relative success in tamping virus growth. We are tracking the interplay of containment measures and mobility changes on activity
We see diversification with – and within – private markets as crucial to building resilient portfolios in a low-rate, post Covid-19 world. The key to the policy response has shifted to ensuring successful execution and avoiding policy fatigue before the
Macroeconomic policy has undergone a necessary revolution in just three months, but this is a slippery slope without proper guardrails. The key to the policy response has shifted to ensuring successful execution and avoiding policy fatigue before the shock passes.
The great poet Ralph Waldo Emerson famously wrote, “Do what we can, summer will have its flies.” As we head into the summer months, this mood may best describe nervous investors who recently experienced large bouts of market volatility due
From unconventional monetary policy to unprecedented policy coordination Unprecedented policies will be needed to respond to the next economic downturn. Monetary policy is almost exhausted as global interest rates plunge towards zero or below. Fiscal policy on its own will
Investing without a parachute In the wake of the coronavirus crisis, the U.S. bond market finds itself flirting with negative interest rates and bumping up against the “zero lower bound”—calling into question the ability of bonds to provide ballast in
China’s economy is restarting after emerging from lockdown, likely benefiting countries and assets exposed to its growth. The key to the policy response has shifted to ensuring successful execution and avoiding policy fatigue before the shock passes. Markets will watch
BII Global weekly commentary The virus shock is accelerating and changing structural trends, leading us to shift our long-term return expectations and strategic views. The key to the policy response has shifted to ensuring successful execution and avoiding policy fatigue
Treasury Market Dislocations This past month market volatility and risk premiums rose to levels not seen since the global financial crisis of 2008- 2009. Sparked by a global collapse in activity in response to the Coronavirus pandemic, the increase in
Weekly commentary Global stocks have recovered more than half of the selloff triggered by the coronavirus pandemic since late March – alongside a sharp contraction in economic activity and corporate earnings. We see the unprecedented policy …
Weekly commentary A decision by the German constitutional court last week could potentially undermine the independence of the European Central Bank (ECB) – and threaten to fuel fragmentation within the euro area in the long run. This comes as the
#Research on #Equities -> https://www.opiniopro.com/tag/outlook+equities/ @Opinio_Pro
"The relentless run in #riskassets over the last five months finally faded a bit in early September, as the S&P 500 fell nearly 8% and the tech-heavy #NASDAQ fell 11%. This year’s returns have been heavily influenced by the …" -> https://www.opiniopro.com/2020/09/northern-trust/an-interesting-fall/
"All eyes were on #centralbanks. As expected, the #Fed left its rates unchanged. It even said they would not move until inflation rose above 2% and stayed there for some time, a situation ..." -> https://www.opiniopro.com/2020/09/edmond-de-rothschild/central-banks-strive-to-maintain-visbility/
"Some regions of #Europe are returning to #lockdown – for instance some districts of Madrid badly hit by the second wave of the #pandemic. Yet, for now these lockdowns are ..." -> https://www.opiniopro.com/2020/09/axa/investing-to-pastures-greener/ #ecb
