Market views from BlackRock Systematic Investing: Central bankers across the world are facing a “Jaws”-sized inflation problem. Like Roy Schneider’s character in the shark-themed summer movie classic, they are now realizing they are going to “need a bigger boat” to
The Russian invasion of Ukraine is the most serious security situation and humanitarian crisis in Europe since WWII, in our view. It’s also the most dangerous standoff between the U.S. and Russia since the Cuban Missile Crisis. Our BlackRock Geopolitical
The transition towards a decarbonized economy is underway. It will involve a massive reallocation of resources. Economies will be reshaped as carbon emissions are cut, inevitably impacting portfolios. •As an asset manager, BlackRock’s fiduciary role includes helping our clients navigate
As bond ETFs turn 20 years old, we believe four trends will propel global AUM to USD 5 trillion by 2030 Twenty years ago, computerised stock trading was reshaping the unseen market plumbing that connects buyers with sellers. Pit-style trading
Centrist Emmanuel Macron was set to secure a second term as France’s president, heralding a deepening of European integration at a time the continent is under extraordinary stress. Macron fended off a challenge by euroscepticMarine Le Pen for the second
Geopolitical Risks – April update The Russian invasion of Ukraine is the largest, most dangerous military mobilization in Europe since WWII. It has upended the geopolitical order, with profound implications for financial markets and the global economy. Indeed, our overall
BII Global weekly commentary We see the Ukraine war reducing global growth, increasing inflation and putting central banks in a bind. We prefer developed stocks in the inflationary backdrop Stocks led by European equities bounced from 2022 lows last week,
Global outlook – Q2 2022 update Both stocks and bonds are down year-to-date as policy confusion and Russia’s invasion roil markets. We still see stocks up and bonds down for a second straight year – a first since data started
The geopolitical crisis in Ukraine creates a stagflationary shock for global economies. Rising commodity prices have the potential to add momentum to already runaway inflation. Higher goods and services costs may hurt consumer confidence and create a drag on economic
BII Global weekly commentary We up our strategic overweight to developed market (DM) equities, but near term elevated geopolitical tensions keep our tactical shopping basket on hold. Equities retreated as investors took renewed fright over the military stand-off involving Ukraine,
When markets get volatile, it can be tempting to change course. Each crisis, from geopolitical risks to changes in monetary policy, can feel daunting. But rather than trying to predict what happens next, it’s critical for investors to think clearly
BII Global weekly commentary We stick with our modest equities overweight but are not buying the recent dip yet. The main reason: confusion over the supply-driven macro environment. Stocks fell further as the Fed flagged a likely rate hike in
The transition to decarbonize the world is happening. Whether the goal of net-zero carbon emissions is achievable by 2050 is far from certain. What is clear: Ignoring the transition is no longer an option. Understanding how the journey will unfold
BII Global weekly commentary We stick with our modest equities overweight but are not buying the recent dip yet. The main reason: confusion over the supply-driven macro environment. Stocks fell further as the Fed flagged a likely rate hike in
The transition to decarbonize the world is happening. Whether the goal of net-zero carbon emissions is achievable by 2050 is far from certain. What is clear: Ignoring the transition is no longer an option. Understanding how the journey will unfold
BII Global weekly commentary We stick with our modest equities overweight but are not buying the recent dip yet. The main reason: confusion over the supply-driven macro environment. Stocks fell further as the Fed flagged a likely rate hike in
Professionally managed funds offered by U.S. asset managers—such as mutual funds and exchange traded funds (ETFs)—have made it easier and more cost-efficient for millions of American investors to access markets. Over the past few decades, American families’ household assets invested
Following on the heels of a tumultuous year, 2021 featured both a recovery and new risks as the world continued to grapple with the COVID-19 pandemic. The S&P Municipal Bond Index finished 2021 with a gain of 1.77% as demand
Using a systematic approach to target consistent alpha Not just active, systematic active In decades past, investors have largely relied on information supplied by companies themselves to understand how business conditions and fundamentals were evolving. Financial statements, meetings with management
We enter 2022 with a lot to consider. The paths of inflation and interest rates, the profound effects of megatrends such as digitization and decarbonization and numerous sub-themes all demand our immediate attention. As private market investors we view this
Living with inflation – We expect inflation to be persistent and settle above pre-Covid levels. Central banks should kick off policy rate hikes but remain more tolerant of price pressures, keeping real interest rates historically low and supportive of risk
BII Global outlook We are entering a new market regime unlike any in the past half century: We see another year of positive equity returns coupled with a down year for bonds. The powerful restart of economic activity will be
As U.S. inflation is hitting three-decade highs, market talk has been all about “liftoff:” When will the Federal Reserve and others start raising their policy rates? This is old news in emerging markets (EMs), where many countries have already raised
Weekly commentary: Surging natural gas and coal prices amid a powerful economic restart have exposed a lopsided transition toward low-carbon power. We still see an orderly transition in the medium term – but with bumps on the way that could
The big emerging question Climate change is a global problem: without a successful transition to net-zero everywhere, climate risk is unmanageable anywhere. Emerging markets (EMs) are essential to the global transition – now accounting for 34% of global carbon emissions
BII Global weekly commentary We believe the debt ceiling dispute will eventually resolve but could trigger more volatility. The broadening economic restart keeps us tactically pro-risk. U.S. job growth slowed sharply in September, but we see it as unlikely to
BII Global weekly commentary We stay tactically pro-risk amid the broadening economic restart, with negative real rates supporting risk assets – as per our new nominal theme. The Fed signaled it will start to taper around the year-end. Its reluctance
BII Global weekly commentary Europe is in the spotlight this month, with a key European Central Bank (ECB) meeting and a pivotal German election that could have significant medium-term implications for the fiscal stance of Europe’s largest economy. We see
Portfolio perspectives – August 2021: The volatility we have seen just in the two months since we published our midyear investment outlook reflects – in our view – the unusually wide range of divergent yet plausible economic outcomes that potentially
Slower activity We see last week’s developments in line with China’s long-term hawkish macro policy stance and regulatory clampdown as the country pursues quality growth. This process is not a straight line, and we see a dovish shift in the
We see equities in developed markets (DMs) outside the U.S. as better positioned to capture the …
Systematic Fixed Income Outlook: BlackRock’s quant bond experts tackle some hard questions around the recent inflation data. What is behind the headlines? Are rising prices just temporary or the start of something bigger? What does greater inflation uncertainty mean for
The narrative around China has shifted away markedly, in our view, from concerns about the health of its financial system and credit-fueled growth. Its economic and market outperformance through yet another global shock has brought sharply into focus the important
Oil and industrial metals have rallied since late-2020 on expectations for a swift economic restart, sparking talk of a new commodity “supercycle.” We see a more nuanced outlook – with a divergence across different commodities. The lift for oil from the economic restart is likely to be transitory, while some metals may benefit …
What’s in store for emerging markets? Q1 2021 Outlook Emerging markets experienced a strong recovery both in activity and capital inflows in Q4 2020, supported by intense search for yield and a more optimistic global growth outlook thanks to vaccine
Downgrading government bonds Weekly commentary We broaden our tactical pro-risk stance in light of major developments since the publication of our 2021 outlook in December: the vaccine rollout and up to $2.8 trillion of additional U.S. fiscal spending this year.
A new investment order – 2021 global outlook We have entered a new investment order. The Covid-19 pandemic has accelerated profound shifts in how economies and societies operate. We see transformations across sustainability, inequality, geopolitics and macro policy. This is
"We still like high yield for income. On a tactical horizon, we strongly prefer high yield for its income and more room for spread tightening. We are neutral on IG and underweight emerging market debt."
Weekly commentary The potential outcomes of the November U.S. election could have starkly different policy ramifications, as we argued last week. What will this mean for equity markets? We believe simplistic narratives about the overall market direction are best avoided
Weekly commentary We see a higher inflation regime in the medium term after a decade of inflation persistently undershooting central bank targets. Three new forces are at play: rising global production cost, new central bank policy frameworks that allow for …
Weekly commentary The broad macro backdrop has been improving, risk assets have rallied a long way, and increasing market volatility points to risks that investors will need to navigate as the U.S. presidential election draws closer. All this leaves us …
Weekly commentary Markets have rallied sharply from their virus lows, driven by the policy revolution and economic restart. Tighter valuations increase the risk of volatility, particularly ahead of divisive U.S. elections. Last week’s equity selloff illustrates this. Against …
Weekly commentary The pandemic has sped up key structural trends and triggered substantial market swings, precipitating an urgent need to rethink strategic asset allocations. Among …
Weekly commentary A prolonged period of U.S. dollar gains has reversed abruptly. The policy revolution to cushion the pandemic’s blow is a key driver, as it has eroded the dollar’s interest rate advantage and helped lift risk appetite off its
Weekly commentary Corporate earnings estimates look to be troughing as economies reopen with fits and starts. We have increased our overweight in the quality factor because we see it as most resilient to the dynamics of a choppy activity restart,
The tectonic shift toward sustainability is gaining pace. We highlight an underappreciated climate-related risk to portfolios: water stress. Negotiations have kicked off over the size and make-up of a new U.S. fiscal package as key benefits are set to expire
We consider European stocks the most attractive regional exposure to a multispeed global restart, especially versus emerging markets outside of north Asia. We could see a $1-1.5 trillion U.S. fiscal package that extends some, but not all, federal stimulus measures
An understated risk The global pandemic has reinforced the importance of resilience in investment portfolios. This includes sustainability-related risks that investors may have been underappreciating, ranging from vulnerable global supply chains to health and safety issues. We believe increased asset
Weekly commentary We recently moved to a strategic overweight on credit after being underweight for the past year. Cheaper valuations compensated for the risk of corporate defaults and downgrades in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic, in our view. We
We downgrade U.S. equities to neutral after a strong run amid surging COVID-19 cases and risks of fading fiscal stimulus. We are tracking the interplay of containment measures and mobility changes on activity as economies have started to reopen. Markets
