We downgrade U.S. equities to neutral after a strong run amid surging COVID-19 cases and risks of fading fiscal stimulus. We are tracking the interplay of containment measures and mobility changes on activity as economies have started to reopen. Markets
The world was quickly thrust into a health crisis and economic tailspin that neither individuals nor businesses saw coming. The stress has prompted talk of companies having to reduce or eliminate their dividend payments to preserve operating capital. Tony DeSpirito
The virus shock is accelerating key structural trends. We update our three investment themes and investment views against this backdrop. We are tracking the interplay of containment measures and mobility changes on activity as economies have started to reopen. Markets
2020 midyear outlook The future is running at us. The coronavirus shock is accelerating structural trends in inequality, globalization, macro policy and sustainability. This is fundamentally reshaping the investment landscape …
BII Global weekly commentary We are warming up to European assets as the region steps up its policy response and demonstrates relative success in tamping virus growth. We are tracking the interplay of containment measures and mobility changes on activity
We see diversification with – and within – private markets as crucial to building resilient portfolios in a low-rate, post Covid-19 world. The key to the policy response has shifted to ensuring successful execution and avoiding policy fatigue before the
Macroeconomic policy has undergone a necessary revolution in just three months, but this is a slippery slope without proper guardrails. The key to the policy response has shifted to ensuring successful execution and avoiding policy fatigue before the shock passes.
The great poet Ralph Waldo Emerson famously wrote, “Do what we can, summer will have its flies.” As we head into the summer months, this mood may best describe nervous investors who recently experienced large bouts of market volatility due
From unconventional monetary policy to unprecedented policy coordination Unprecedented policies will be needed to respond to the next economic downturn. Monetary policy is almost exhausted as global interest rates plunge towards zero or below. Fiscal policy on its own will
Investing without a parachute In the wake of the coronavirus crisis, the U.S. bond market finds itself flirting with negative interest rates and bumping up against the “zero lower bound”—calling into question the ability of bonds to provide ballast in
China’s economy is restarting after emerging from lockdown, likely benefiting countries and assets exposed to its growth. The key to the policy response has shifted to ensuring successful execution and avoiding policy fatigue before the shock passes. Markets will watch
BII Global weekly commentary The virus shock is accelerating and changing structural trends, leading us to shift our long-term return expectations and strategic views. The key to the policy response has shifted to ensuring successful execution and avoiding policy fatigue
Treasury Market Dislocations This past month market volatility and risk premiums rose to levels not seen since the global financial crisis of 2008- 2009. Sparked by a global collapse in activity in response to the Coronavirus pandemic, the increase in
Weekly commentary Global stocks have recovered more than half of the selloff triggered by the coronavirus pandemic since late March – alongside a sharp contraction in economic activity and corporate earnings. We see the unprecedented policy …
Weekly commentary A decision by the German constitutional court last week could potentially undermine the independence of the European Central Bank (ECB) – and threaten to fuel fragmentation within the euro area in the long run. This comes as the
2020 investment themes update Activity standstill – The coronavirus shock is sharper than what we saw in 2008 – but we believe its cumulative hit to growth is likely to be lower. The main risk to our view: policy needed
The coronavirus shock has triggered market turbulence over the last three months – and prompted historic policy actions globally. Does this represent a need and opportunity for long-term investors to adjust their strategic allocations – or the broad mix of
Weekly commentary The coronavirus shock has triggered market turbulence over the last three months. Does this represent a need and opportunity for long-term investors to adjust their strategic allocations? We think so – based on price dislocations alone and when
Abstract: COVID-19 has prompted a wide range of responses from governments around the world. There is a pressing need for up-to-date policy information as these responses proliferate, and governments weigh decisions about the stringency of their policies against other concerns.
Market volatility never feels good. The kind we’ve felt amid the coronavirus pandemic has been particularly taxing. Of course, this is no ordinary moment in history. It will be a defining moment for individuals, businesses and industries worldwide. Long-term stock
Global economic activity is being deliberately frozen to stem the coronavirus pandemic. This initial shock is very sudden and deep. Yet what matters for asset pricing is the cumulative impact of the growth shortfall over time. We believe that policy
While the market has staged a spectacular and unanticipated rally, looking at the broader indices can be somewhat misleading. Year-to-date, the S&P 500 Index is still down -15%, but large cap tech and healthcare indices are down 3% or less.
Weekly commentary Global economic activity is being frozen to stem the coronavirus pandemic. Yet implications for asset prices will depend on the cumulative impact of the growth shortfall over time. We believe that policy actions to cushion the impact of
We downgrade emerging market (EM) local debt to neutral on currency concerns, but still like Asia ex-Japan equities and credit. U.S. stocks extended gains, brushing off poor economic data including a collapse in retail sales and China’s GDP contraction. This
We see improving outlook for credit in general due to overwhelming policy action to limit the coronavirus shock and recent market selloffs. Yet we have turned more cautious on emerging market (EM) local debt despite depressed valuations after selloffs. Why?
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