Macro-Economic Outlook for 2020 – Manufacturing activity has fallen to levels not seen since the global financial crisis; rising trade and geopolitical tensions raise downside risks to business activity – But domestic demand is holding up well – And discussions
2019 turned out to be very different to what most market participants had expected at the turn of the year. This time last year, weakening data, escalating tension between the US and China and a seemingly agnostic Federal Reserve overtightening
W e l l s , w i r e s , a n d w h e e l s … Oil needs long-term break-evens of $10-$20/bbl to remain competitive in mobility. In this report we introduce the concept of
Size matters. Profitability matters. To identify superstar companies in emerging markets, however, we believe ‘economic moats’ is an important concept. This is also identifying the key factors driving that competitive advantage and how dependent the business is on superior management.
Is looking for superstar firms among disruptive tech, consumer innovators and small caps a quest for the obvious? Or does it make more sense generally to focus on companies that are sustainable, in both senses, as steady and resilient performers
SUMMARY – Transitioning to a reflation regime? – Several developments suggest that a move to a reflationary environment is a material risk, if not immediately. We explore supply shocks given ongoing de-globalisation; fiscal stimulus; and a more traditional route: an
ASSET ALLOCATION Neutral equities – With equities near all-time highs, and given the uncertain macro backdrop, we do not regard short-term risk/reward as very appealing. Underweight core EMU duration – Risks for fixed income markets are mounting, and a reflation
Emerging markets are at an interesting crossroads when it comes to the issue of climate change. As they continue to grow at an accelerating pace, their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are rising precipitously, with transport the second biggest contributor. Electric
In this publication, we describe in detail how we go about forecasting longer-term returns for a large number of asset classes. Our expectations for many assets are generally moderate compared to the returns of the past and lower than their
Today, structured finance assets – asset backed securities (“abs”) – form a european market with over eur 1 000 billion-worth of outstanding assets. particularly in europe, the market’s growth since 2009 is not only indicative that investors view structured finance
A more challenging balance between growth and monetary policy – Our ‘fragile goldilocks’ base case assumes that central banks can offset the ongoing growth slowdown. In our view, that assumption is now more tenuous in Europe, but still holds in
China’s current account has defied consensus (https://china.bnpparibasam.com/thefussaboutchinascurrentaccountdeficitandglobalcostofcapital/) , and recorded a surplus of 1.6% of GDP in Q2 2019, up from a 1.5% surplus in Q1. How can that be? The answer must lie in the financial and capital accounts,
Het is een beproefd recept voor pensioenfondsen: de beleggingsportefeuille wordt verdeeld in een matching- en rendementsportefeuille. De matchingportefeuille is bedoeld om de verplichtingen af te dekken en de rendementsportefeuille moet voor extra rendement zorgen. Deze tweedeling maakt het vraagstuk van
Between Growth Fears And Policy Support It’s all about growth – Markets have gone through violent swings lately, with the latter part of 2018 seeing a sharp re-pricing of economic growth assumptions juxtaposed by a strong rebound of risky assets
Summary Central bank tightening fuels volatility – As financial markets begin to slowly grasp that central banks are no longer underpinning asset prices, sharper and sudden market moves look set to become the new norm. In such a world more
Investment Outlook for 2019 A regime change is underway in financial markets. Non-conventional central bank policy in the wake of the Great Financial Crisis of 2007-2008 sent waves of liquidity flooding through global asset markets. In December 2015, the US
So what is decarbonisation – that odd, but strangely attractive-sounding word? Decarbonisation refers to action taken to reduce the carbon intensity, and carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions in particular, of an economy. As an integral part of the energy transition, decarbonisation
BNP Paribas Asset Management has a longstanding history of providing asset allocation advice to our institutional clients. This included studies for pension funds and insurance companies to optimise their long-term strategic asset allocation. But also portfolio allocations based on medium-term
What to expect in the next 5 to 7 years? Institutional investors face great challenges after a prolonged period of declining yields and very accommodative monetary policy by the main central banks. These include the continuous search for yield as
Asset Allocation Quaterly The second quarter of 2018 was tainted by trade tensions; investor concerns about Italy and European growth; and stress in emerging market (EM) and China-linked assets. However, not all news was bad for the markets: US equities
Asset Allocation Quaterly The second quarter of 2018 was tainted by trade tensions; investor concerns about Italy and European growth; and stress in emerging market (EM) and China-linked assets. However, not all news was bad for the markets: US equities
Key Points FOMC communications and projections suggest that policymakers are largely accommodating fiscal expansion and possibly encouraging an inflation overshoot. The approach implies a dovish shift in the FOMC’s reaction function that is not adequately reflected in the Committee’s statement
Asset Allocation Monthly As in February, US Treasury yields rose to the point where they ended up rocking markets, but this time the disruption was more visible in the US dollar and emerging markets than in equity markets. We see
Kwartaalrapport Asset Allocatie Vier ontwikkelingen in het bijzonder maakten in K1 de markten nerveus en leidden tot een verhoogde aandelenvolatiliteit: (i) zorgen over de inflatie en een minder accommoderend beleid van centrale banken; (ii) het escalerende protectionisme; (iii) de teleurstellende
Multi Asset Spotlight Financial markets have experienced another bout of volatility, this time related to an escalation in protectionism involving the US and China. An escalation of such tensions towards a full-blown trade war would be very damaging for global
Global Asset Allocation Views Q1 2020 -> https://www.opiniopro.com/2020/01/jp-morgan/global-asset-allocation-views-q1-2020/ #AssetAllocation #credit #equites #Equities #FixedIncome via @JPMorganAM
Zo was het vorig jaar! #aftermovie #AssetAllocationAwards
https://vimeo.com/321963939
Economic resilience, Fed and elections to drive US markets in 2020 -> https://www.opiniopro.com/2020/01/amundi/economic-resilience-fed-and-elections-to-drive-us-markets-in-2020-2/ #consumption #election #monetarypolicy via @Amundi_ENG
The US federal reserve’s ‘whatever it takes’ moment has arrived -> https://www.opiniopro.com/2020/01/ubp/the-us-federal-reserves-whatever-it-takes-moment-has-arrived/ #AssetAllocation #centralbank #credit #ECB #Equities #FED #USA
