Investment Outlook 2021 – Legacy of the Lockdowns TAKEAWAYS The global economy faced a crisis of unprecedented magnitude following the coronavirus pandemic lockdowns. A sharp global contraction in early 2020, and possible renewed dip in Europe in the fourth
High Hopes for a Cyclical Recovery (Video) Asset Allocation Monthly In this Asset Allocation monthly video, we discuss the implications of the US elections and the news on potentially reliable Covid vaccines on our market views and our asset allocation
“Costs for renewable hydrogen are going down quickly. Electrolyzer costs have already been reduced by 60% in the last ten years, and are expected to halve in 2030 compared to today with economies of scale. In regions where renewable electricity
Asset Allocation Monthly Three key issues have dominated the macroeconomic outlook in recent weeks: The second wave of the virus, the possibility of a positive announcement on the vaccine front, and the outcome of the US elections. Markets have been
"Moreover, an end to the trade war does not mean the end to the tech war. There is a strong consensus in the US for curbing China’s access to critical technologies. Biden is unlikely to reverse the Trump administration’s tech
US Election Preview: All or Nothing The polls say Biden is the favoriete: With little time to go until the election, Biden has a substantial edge over Trump in the national polls, of around 10 percentage points. Biden has led
Market Weekly The EU’s new targets for emissions reductions are realistic and achievable and should lift the price of CO2, encouraging more emitters to switch to doing business in a more environmentally friendly way. In this podcast, chief sustainability strategist
Persbericht Groene waterstof(1) zal een belangrijke pijler worden van de plannen voor duurzame ontwikkeling en emissiereductie van de Europese Unie (“EU”). Dit heeft aanzienlijke gevolgen voor zowel het decarbonisatietraject dat de EU de komende drie decennia zal volgen als voor
In emerging markets (EM), the path to progress and prosperity is made more difficult by considerable structural challenges. These challenges, such as entrenched economic interests, weak institutional checks and balances and overall lack of physical infrastructure, create barriers to inclusive
How have US small caps performed over the last cycle and since the pandemic? The most recent cycle began in 2013 and, leading up to the COVID-19 pandemic, US small caps had underperformed significantly. The outperformance of the S&P500 versus
The COVID-19 crisis has highlighted the need for greater awareness of social considerations in investment decision-making. To better understand investors’ approach to social …
The COVID-19 crisis has highlighted the need for greater awareness of social considerations in investment decision-making. To better understand investors’ approach to social …
An unprecedented health crisis has uprooted medical care, financial markets and the prospects for the global economy. It has left asset allocators reeling as some markets seek to find their footing after a sizeable sell-off, while other markets have benefited
An unprecedented health crisis has uprooted medical care, financial markets and the prospects for the global economy. It has left asset allocators reeling as some markets seek to find their footing after a sizeable sell-off, while other markets have benefited
De gevolgen van de Coronacrisis voor pensioenfondsen Ondanks alle onzekerheden rond de ontwikkeling van de Coronacrisis lijkt als een paal boven water te staan dat de gevolgen op economisch vlak ingrijpend zullen zijn. Ook pensioenfondsen in Nederland zullen hier niet
"For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong." Hedging equity portfolios against losses has become crucial for many equity asset owners after the long rally of 2009-2019 The rapid recovery following the Global Financial Crisis
The core asset class views dashboard reflects the key views of the Investment Committee of the Multi-Asset team Despite investor scepticism, 2019 was a bull market for every asset class (Figure 1). Indeed, assets benefited from the strongly dovish stance
The COVID-19 pandemic has tragically already claimed the lives of over 10 000 people. Many more will die in the coming weeks. Governments have been obliged to take extreme social distancing measures to combat the virus, effectively putting society on
Level 1 assets: our asset allocation was mostly unchanged during the selloff. We remain moderately long risk, notably via EM and US equities and underweight EMU duration, where we increased our position recently. Looking ahead: taking the above fundamental and
For some months, the investment team’s view has been that the US economy is transitioning from a (temporary) abovetrend growth phase in which growth was super-charged by fiscal stimulus, lower corporate tax rates and deregulation – to a more sustainable
Macro-Economic Outlook for 2020 – Manufacturing activity has fallen to levels not seen since the global financial crisis; rising trade and geopolitical tensions raise downside risks to business activity – But domestic demand is holding up well – And discussions
2019 turned out to be very different to what most market participants had expected at the turn of the year. This time last year, weakening data, escalating tension between the US and China and a seemingly agnostic Federal Reserve overtightening
W e l l s , w i r e s , a n d w h e e l s … Oil needs long-term break-evens of $10-$20/bbl to remain competitive in mobility. In this report we introduce the concept of
Size matters. Profitability matters. To identify superstar companies in emerging markets, however, we believe ‘economic moats’ is an important concept. This is also identifying the key factors driving that competitive advantage and how dependent the business is on superior management.
Is looking for superstar firms among disruptive tech, consumer innovators and small caps a quest for the obvious? Or does it make more sense generally to focus on companies that are sustainable, in both senses, as steady and resilient performers
SUMMARY – Transitioning to a reflation regime? – Several developments suggest that a move to a reflationary environment is a material risk, if not immediately. We explore supply shocks given ongoing de-globalisation; fiscal stimulus; and a more traditional route: an
ASSET ALLOCATION Neutral equities – With equities near all-time highs, and given the uncertain macro backdrop, we do not regard short-term risk/reward as very appealing. Underweight core EMU duration – Risks for fixed income markets are mounting, and a reflation
Emerging markets are at an interesting crossroads when it comes to the issue of climate change. As they continue to grow at an accelerating pace, their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are rising precipitously, with transport the second biggest contributor. Electric
In this publication, we describe in detail how we go about forecasting longer-term returns for a large number of asset classes. Our expectations for many assets are generally moderate compared to the returns of the past and lower than their
Today, structured finance assets – asset backed securities (“abs”) – form a european market with over eur 1 000 billion-worth of outstanding assets. particularly in europe, the market’s growth since 2009 is not only indicative that investors view structured finance
A more challenging balance between growth and monetary policy – Our ‘fragile goldilocks’ base case assumes that central banks can offset the ongoing growth slowdown. In our view, that assumption is now more tenuous in Europe, but still holds in
China’s current account has defied consensus (https://china.bnpparibasam.com/thefussaboutchinascurrentaccountdeficitandglobalcostofcapital/) , and recorded a surplus of 1.6% of GDP in Q2 2019, up from a 1.5% surplus in Q1. How can that be? The answer must lie in the financial and capital accounts,
Het is een beproefd recept voor pensioenfondsen: de beleggingsportefeuille wordt verdeeld in een matching- en rendementsportefeuille. De matchingportefeuille is bedoeld om de verplichtingen af te dekken en de rendementsportefeuille moet voor extra rendement zorgen. Deze tweedeling maakt het vraagstuk van
Between Growth Fears And Policy Support It’s all about growth – Markets have gone through violent swings lately, with the latter part of 2018 seeing a sharp re-pricing of economic growth assumptions juxtaposed by a strong rebound of risky assets
Summary Central bank tightening fuels volatility – As financial markets begin to slowly grasp that central banks are no longer underpinning asset prices, sharper and sudden market moves look set to become the new norm. In such a world more
Investment Outlook for 2019 A regime change is underway in financial markets. Non-conventional central bank policy in the wake of the Great Financial Crisis of 2007-2008 sent waves of liquidity flooding through global asset markets. In December 2015, the US
So what is decarbonisation – that odd, but strangely attractive-sounding word? Decarbonisation refers to action taken to reduce the carbon intensity, and carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions in particular, of an economy. As an integral part of the energy transition, decarbonisation
BNP Paribas Asset Management has a longstanding history of providing asset allocation advice to our institutional clients. This included studies for pension funds and insurance companies to optimise their long-term strategic asset allocation. But also portfolio allocations based on medium-term
What to expect in the next 5 to 7 years? Institutional investors face great challenges after a prolonged period of declining yields and very accommodative monetary policy by the main central banks. These include the continuous search for yield as
Asset Allocation Quaterly The second quarter of 2018 was tainted by trade tensions; investor concerns about Italy and European growth; and stress in emerging market (EM) and China-linked assets. However, not all news was bad for the markets: US equities
Asset Allocation Quaterly The second quarter of 2018 was tainted by trade tensions; investor concerns about Italy and European growth; and stress in emerging market (EM) and China-linked assets. However, not all news was bad for the markets: US equities
Key Points FOMC communications and projections suggest that policymakers are largely accommodating fiscal expansion and possibly encouraging an inflation overshoot. The approach implies a dovish shift in the FOMC’s reaction function that is not adequately reflected in the Committee’s statement
Asset Allocation Monthly As in February, US Treasury yields rose to the point where they ended up rocking markets, but this time the disruption was more visible in the US dollar and emerging markets than in equity markets. We see
Kwartaalrapport Asset Allocatie Vier ontwikkelingen in het bijzonder maakten in K1 de markten nerveus en leidden tot een verhoogde aandelenvolatiliteit: (i) zorgen over de inflatie en een minder accommoderend beleid van centrale banken; (ii) het escalerende protectionisme; (iii) de teleurstellende
Multi Asset Spotlight Financial markets have experienced another bout of volatility, this time related to an escalation in protectionism involving the US and China. An escalation of such tensions towards a full-blown trade war would be very damaging for global
Global equities sold off aggressively as higher bond yields finally dented the strong January risk rally The sell-off was triggered by strong hourly earnings data in the US, but its magnitude appears to be exacerbated by market technicals Solid growth
What are people’s attitudes towards investing, and more specifically towards SRI, in The Netherlands? And how do they compare with those of people in some of the other major European countries?
Last week was characterized by a recovery in global risk assets as volatility eased from their spike levels witnessed in the days following the release of higher-than-expected payroll earnings. This calmer environment last week is all the more notable in
The renminbi has started 2018 on a firm footing, with CNY-USD trading at 6.394 at the time of writing (or more than 1.7% higher than the exchange rate at the end of 2017). CNY appreciated by more than 6.3% against
Can green and ethical investing help us build back better in a post-pandemic world? Find out in this @raconteur article written by @SustMeme.
It carries insights from a range of market perspectives and leading contributors with expertise in both sustainability and investment.
