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Posts From Columbia Threadneedle Investments

The conflict in Ukraine carries significant implications for energy and food ESG themes

The conflict in Ukraine carries significant implications for energy and food ESG themes

🕔15:15, 1.Aug 2022

Key insights: The conflict in Ukraine underscores the tension of balancing energy transition goals and energy needs. The war is not compromising Europe’s commitment to decarbonization, but the short-term focus is on energy independence and security of supply. Because Russia

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Global Sustainable Outcomes – Q4 2021

Global Sustainable Outcomes – Q4 2021

🕔16:04, 5.Apr 2022

While the word inflation again dominated markets over Q4 2021, a new word rivalled it by December: Omicron. This Covid-19 mutation was identified by South African scientists and soon it was spreading fast. The world flew into a panic, banning

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Occam’s razor and portfolio rebalancing

Occam’s razor and portfolio rebalancing

🕔08:25, 4.Apr 2022

Historical perspective to understand future expectations of return In their 2015 paper, “Occam’s Razor Redux: Establishing Reasonable Expectations for Financial Market Returns,”1 authors John C. Bogle and Michael W. Nolan describe a simple model for developing capital market expectations, looking

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Investors confront volatility as Russia invades Ukraine

Investors confront volatility as Russia invades Ukraine

🕔12:00, 21.Mar 2022

When market volatility spikes, investors question what, if anything, they should do. Markets reacted strongly to news that Russia invaded neighboring Ukraine. The world has been watching tensions in the region escalate since the beginning of the year. Russia objects

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US equities: three themes to watch in a discriminating year

US equities: three themes to watch in a discriminating year

🕔15:57, 31.Jan 2022

2022 will be a new year in more ways than one. After more than a decade of monetary stimulus, the US Federal Reserve has signaled that it will raise interest rates and reduce support for the economy and asset prices.

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Monetary policy and the yield curve

Monetary policy and the yield curve

🕔08:45, 6.Jan 2022

Three hikes in 2022? At its December meeting, the US Federal Reserve left policy rates unchanged, near zero, while signaling a willingness to hike as many as three times in 2022 to combat inflation. It also announced an acceleration in

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Asset Allocation 2021/22: review and outlook

Asset Allocation 2021/22: review and outlook

🕔12:05, 5.Jan 2022

After the shock Covid-19 recession of 2020, global economic growth bounced back in 2021. Earnings soared more than was forecast, and the prospect of monetary tightening emerged with inflation proving less transitory than hoped. Taking the Covid period in its

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A tough week for Turkey

A tough week for Turkey

🕔10:38, 5.Jan 2022

Macro / government bonds All three major central banks making decisions last week have demonstrated that they no longer regard the downside risks to economic activity over the coming months as outweighing the need to address inflation pressure.

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Fixed income: from recovery to expansion

Fixed income: from recovery to expansion

🕔10:40, 3.Jan 2022

In 2022 we expect the market narrative to transition to the traditional expansionary phase of the business cycle. Here’s what it means for fixed income investors.  Monetary headwinds Throughout 2021 the invisible hand of easy global monetary policy supported financial

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Gain clarity in 2022: A backdrop of changing monetary policy

Gain clarity in 2022: A backdrop of changing monetary policy

🕔10:56, 30.Dec 2021

Inflation and supply chain headwinds are expected to ease as the year progresses. And reopening trade will present select opportunities. As economies transition to recovery from the onset of the pandemic, there will be changes and challenges. Without accommodative monetary

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Infrastructure and the outlook for municipal bonds in 2022

Infrastructure and the outlook for municipal bonds in 2022

🕔15:30, 28.Dec 2021

The Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act is one of several positive drivers for municipal bonds in the new year. After months of debate, Congress passed the $1.2 trillion Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (“IIJA”), which was signed by President Biden

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Green hydrogen is finally showing its true colours

Green hydrogen is finally showing its true colours

🕔08:33, 24.Dec 2021

Hydrogen is the most abundant molecule in the universe, found primarily locked in water and hydrocarbons. Its qualities have been known for a long time, and it has been used for more than 100 years as an industrial chemical. While

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What went up…must come down (hopefully)!

What went up…must come down (hopefully)!

🕔11:48, 22.Dec 2021

I wonder if anyone at the start of the year would have predicted that US inflation would have risen to 6.8% y/y in November? If we had expected this, you would have thought that bond yields would have traded at

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A bumpy ride higher for equities

A bumpy ride higher for equities

🕔10:00, 21.Dec 2021

We entered 2021 with the prospect of new vaccines taming Covid-19 and that effort proved transformative in developed markets. The coronavirus persists, however, and its impact will continue to be felt in 2022 as the pandemic plays out. New therapies

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UK Real Estate: how to follow a record 2021?

UK Real Estate: how to follow a record 2021?

🕔15:49, 20.Dec 2021

2021 was a standout year for UK real estate, which delivered annualised total returns of 14.7% to the end of October, as robust income returns were complemented by the return of capital growth. This represents the highest level of annualised

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European equities: Stock selection guided by razor-sharp research will be the holy grail

European equities: Stock selection guided by razor-sharp research will be the holy grail

🕔14:17, 17.Dec 2021

2021 was a year of booming markets which were in danger of overheating before the Omicron Covid-19 variant came along. A profit boom on both sides of the Atlantic has supported equity markets, with the US looking exceptionally strong in

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Responsible Investment Quarterly – Q3 2021

Responsible Investment Quarterly – Q3 2021

🕔09:17, 17.Dec 2021

The third quarter is normally a quieter period following the main corporate Annual General Meeting season and, this year, being the final run-up to the COP26 conference in Glasgow. With COP26 a key milestone for the global climate response, climate

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Global Sustainable Outcomes – Q3 2021

Global Sustainable Outcomes – Q3 2021

🕔11:39, 16.Dec 2021

We’re now seeing the economic consequences of shutting down the world and then hitting the restart button. As most economies re-open, demand for goods and services has largely recovered to pre-Covid levels, however supply chains have remained under stress. What

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Inflation: No time to panic

Inflation: No time to panic

🕔14:36, 15.Dec 2021

Interest rates have been historically low for more than a decade, dampened by the flood of monetary stimulus introduced in the wake of the global financial crisis. In 2022 we expect this to change. As we move towards economic recovery

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Yields lower, curves flatter & stronger dollar.

Yields lower, curves flatter & stronger dollar.

🕔09:34, 14.Dec 2021

Core government bond yields were lower and yield curves flatter last week (see chart of the week). More hawkish rhetoric from the recently reappointed Chair of the US Federal Reserve has upset the short end of markets, forcing yields higher.

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How to dismantle a conglomerate.

How to dismantle a conglomerate.

🕔14:58, 10.Dec 2021

If you are looking for market volatility to spice up your week then core government bond markets would be a good place to start. After last weeks ‘communication breakdown’ between central banks and investors, and more dovish policy response, that

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It’s been a turbulent November.

It’s been a turbulent November.

🕔16:56, 7.Dec 2021

Market updates: The week saw an increase of cases of the newly identified Omicron variant of Covid-19 observed in South Africa and elsewhere. Though the week cases have been seen across Europe, Asia and in the US, causing fears of

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The bumpy road to net zero

The bumpy road to net zero

🕔15:26, 3.Dec 2021

Reaching a net-zero emissions energy system represents a radical transformation of the economy from one dominated by fossil fuels to one that is predominately based on clean energy. This will require radical decarbonisation across all sectors of the economy. As

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Swapshop.

Swapshop.

🕔10:22, 1.Dec 2021

Core government bond markets were a little calmer last week with yields a shade lower. This week should be relatively quiet as the US celebrates Thanksgiving on Thursday. We also expect the US President to announce if Jay Powell will

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Walking the delicate path to normalisation

Walking the delicate path to normalisation

🕔14:19, 26.Nov 2021

European Gazette: As central banks move gingerly towards normalising monetary policy, a delicate balancing act is under way. They need to tighten policy – but neither too soon, nor too quickly. Indeed, the flattening of the US yield curve in

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European markets have been strong

European markets have been strong

🕔13:54, 24.Nov 2021

Market updates: At the start of the week, President Biden signed into law the $1.2 trillion infrastructure package. He is also set to announce a new US Federal Reserve Chief, which is expected to be either incumbent Jerome Powell or

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Process is everything for Pan European Smaller Companies

Process is everything for Pan European Smaller Companies

🕔13:37, 19.Nov 2021

Two factors have interested us in Europe in 2021. First, there has been a value rally since November 2020, particularly in smaller companies. The onset of the pandemic in Europe in early 2020 initially saw value and cyclical stocks, typically

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Communication breakdown.

Communication breakdown.

🕔14:21, 16.Nov 2021

Bond markets, which have been under considerable pressure recently, saw a very sharp turnaround last week as the US Federal Reserve did no more than expected in the US, while the Bank of England kept rates unchanged, and the European

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The pace of the global economic recovery

The pace of the global economic recovery

🕔14:15, 15.Nov 2021

Market updates – 5 November 2021: Following September’s decline, US equities came back strongly in October following a better than expected Q3 results season. The month saw the S&P 500 up by 6.9% with a 3% gain in the last

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Be strategic when realizing tax losses

Be strategic when realizing tax losses

🕔10:42, 12.Nov 2021

The routine for many investors is to harvest losses in December. But end-ofyear harvesting could mean missed opportunities. There are many possible reasons why investors decide to harvest tax losses at the end of the year. Perhaps they take pride

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European power price surges

European power price surges

🕔12:57, 11.Nov 2021

Reaching a net-zero emissions energy system represents the biggest transformation the energy sector has ever seen. As we stand on the precipice of this transition it is becoming increasingly clear that we are in for a bumpy ride. With supply

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Asset allocation update: warning lights are flashing

Asset allocation update: warning lights are flashing

🕔13:43, 9.Nov 2021

After 18 months of exceptionally strong equity markets, most measures of valuations look high against their own absolute histories. The measure most favoured among long-time equity bears over the past decade or so has been the Shiller Cyclically-Adjusted Price Earnings

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The winner takes it all.

The winner takes it all.

🕔10:42, 9.Nov 2021

US equities printed a new high as we end October while bonds remain mired in volatility with yields near their highs for the last 12 months – see chart of the week. Meanwhile, risk markets in fixed income are locked

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The climate crisis becomes real

The climate crisis becomes real

🕔11:58, 29.Oct 2021

Global Sustainable Outcomes: There’s only one way to summarise Q2: a world divided. In North America and Europe economic recovery exceeded expectations as successful vaccination programmes supported market reopening. Here in the UK we emerged from a bleak winter of

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China is making good RI progress, despite its contradictions

China is making good RI progress, despite its contradictions

🕔09:26, 22.Oct 2021

China is a double-edged sword: it is the world-leading renewables developer, installing more than double the gigawatt (GW) capacity of its nearest competitor over the past decade both in terms of wind and solar power (Figure 1), but at the

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Committing to zero carbon real estate

Committing to zero carbon real estate

🕔14:19, 14.Oct 2021

If the world is to avoid more destructive climate change over the coming decades, every industry must change how it operates and strive to reach net zero carbon by 2050, in line with the 2015 Paris Agreement. Given that buildings

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Return to Normal Index: Updated base case and downside scenarios

Return to Normal Index: Updated base case and downside scenarios

🕔07:09, 13.Oct 2021

Our base case scenario for a return to normal is now Q4 2021, with a downside scenario in Q1 2022.  At the beginning of the year, we created a Return to Normal Index to measure human activity data relative to

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A farewell to negative yields?

A farewell to negative yields?

🕔11:30, 8.Oct 2021

In Credit: US bond yields have stabilsed this quarter after the material sell-off in the first quarter. It has been a different story for yields in Europe, however, which have trended higher. This reflects a heavy supply schedule and speculation

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Jolly green giant Gilt.

Jolly green giant Gilt.

🕔11:05, 5.Oct 2021

The ‘excitement’ of an FOMC meeting, shenanigans at Evergrande, revised forecasts from the OECD and the German general election led to a rise in yields last week (see chart of the week). The US Federal Reserve presented a more hawkish

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Is Japan really a disappointing equity market?

Is Japan really a disappointing equity market?

🕔11:58, 1.Oct 2021

Some investors historically have seen Japan’s equity market as a constant source of disappointment. I can understand why. For 20 years, after Japan’s asset bubble burst and through the global financial crisis in 2009, it was a trader’s market. You

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Climate change to bear upon banks’ financial performance

Climate change to bear upon banks’ financial performance

🕔15:06, 28.Sep 2021

A broad spectrum of central banks fear climate change could spark the next financial crisis. For this reason, regulators in Europe and the UK are already beginning to scrutinise banks’ resilience to climate change – looking into both the likely

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Earth Day 2021: How investors can support a greener future

Earth Day 2021: How investors can support a greener future

🕔16:16, 23.Sep 2021

Earth Day is an annual global event supporting environmental protection that takes place on 22 April. To support this year’s theme ‘Restore Our Earth’, some of Columbia Threadneedle’s fund managers and analysts present their thoughts on important environmental issues from

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Topix hits 30-year high as PM Suga announces resignation

Topix hits 30-year high as PM Suga announces resignation

🕔14:19, 22.Sep 2021

After months of declining approval ratings, Prime Minister Suga announced that he will not run for election as the ruling LDP leader and will thus resign as PM. In addition to mounting public criticism over his response to the Covid-19

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Cats, rivers & regulation: the lowdown on Chinese equities

Cats, rivers & regulation: the lowdown on Chinese equities

🕔16:39, 21.Sep 2021

Deng Xiaoping is often considered the architect of modern China, having advocated a pragmatic approach to economic development and embraced the free-market system of western economies. However, many of the principles he endorsed have seemingly been turned on their …

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When a taper is not a taper.

When a taper is not a taper.

🕔12:58, 21.Sep 2021

Core government bond markets ended the week with a better tone, even as the European Central Bank announced its intentions to modestly reduce asset purchases, and as the ECB increased forecasts for economic growth and for inflation. The ECB notched

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Japan’s software revolution is making up for lost time

Japan’s software revolution is making up for lost time

🕔16:00, 16.Sep 2021

The use of software solutions by companies to improve competitiveness, efficiency and productivity, and reduce costs, is picking up pace – just in time, as a shortage of skilled workers continues to bite. Over several decades Japan has built a

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Falling into Fall.

Falling into Fall.

🕔16:01, 14.Sep 2021

Government bond yields generally moved higher last week; the spectre of a withdrawal of ultraeasy policy conditions remains front and centre of attention. Indeed, we will hear more on this subject perhaps this week from Europe when the European Central

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Really low real yields.

Really low real yields.

🕔14:52, 9.Sep 2021

In Credit  AUGUST 2021 As we start a new month, we can reflect on another better week and month for core government bonds. US yields fell by around 25bps in July. The fall was led by declining real yields, which

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Japan: Olympic host’s equity market is uniquely positioned

Japan: Olympic host’s equity market is uniquely positioned

🕔13:55, 3.Sep 2021

With the Tokyo Olympics scheduled to take place later this month, all eyes will be on Japan this summer. While there has been a backlash from the Japanese public as a result of Covid-19 concerns, the intentions of the International

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Funding Europe’s green infrastructure finance gap

Funding Europe’s green infrastructure finance gap

🕔15:54, 1.Sep 2021

Responsible Investment has witnessed strong growth over the past five years. However, the past six months have seen it embark on a much steeper trajectory. If we take a Google Analytics view on worldwide searches for “ESG” (environmental, social and

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