Eurozone 2023-2024 outlook shock behind, shock ahead The lengthy post-pandemic rebound wave is settling down, and growth normalisation is hitting another, more lasting shock from the war in Ukraine. This is an exceptional slowdown for the economy: annual growth of
Prevention better than cure The strong, synchronised cycle of global growth has ended. Alongside hopes that the US–China trade negotiations will result in a deal and that Chinese growth picks up – but not deceiving ourselves about China’s ability to
The outlook for household consumption remains dependent on the timetable for the roll-out of fiscal and social security measures. In 2019, it looks set to pick up on a one-off basis (1.9% compared with 0.9% in 2018), in view of
Moving towards a normalised growth rate Backbone of our scenario is being fuelled by a pick-up in wages and sustained job creations against a backdrop of accelerating workforce ageing. Private consumption is still the main component of growth.
Macroeconomic Scenario for 2019-2020 It might be easier (and, more importantly, quite smart) to take refuge behind the dangers currently looming to concoct gloomy or even alarmist forecasts. It would be an easy stance, given such a long list of
China Chinese debt has been a major topic over the past few years. And not without reason, as it entails a risk of financial instability that is real, despite the existence of buffers. But possibly overly much so, to the
Economic and financial forecasts 3 October 2018 Interest rate forecasts Exchange Rate Forecasts
The end is not yet nigh Despite tightening financial conditions in the US and a possible worsening of trade tensions, a cyclical downturn is not imminent. The heady days of simultaneous expansion are, however, now well and truly over. Growth
Emerging Countries – Monthly News Digest The oil price has risen sharply in recent weeks. “Dated Brent”, the benchmark price for physical transactions in the international market (except for the United States) topped 75 dollars a barrel last Monday. Speculation,
Europe – Foreign trade The announcements concerning the Trump administration’s trade policy present a serious challenge for the European Union. If it fails to bring the US back to the WTO’s negotiating table, the European Union could either enter into bilateral
Robust growth in 2018-2019 despite increased recruitment difficulties Q1 GDP showed slowing growth. This was expected and was justified by one-off factors; this does not suggest, however, that the French economy has begun a cyclical downswing. Over 2018 as a
Raising our growth forecasts Negotiations on Brexit have moved forward since a preliminary divorce agreement settling issues in the exit bill and the rights of European and UK citizens was signed last December. The United Kingdom (UK) has ended up
Emerging Countries – Monthly News Digest At a time when the 8th World Water Forum was taking place last week in Brasilia, and it has been looking like Cape Town could run out of water for many weeks in early
WORLD – Macroeconomic Scenario for 2018-2019 The US fiscal stimulus will boost US growth to the point of driving it to dangerous, but still distant, heights. Bringing it down gently from there will be a difficult task for US monetary
Economic and financial forecasts
United Kingdom – Brexit Considerable progress has been made in the Brexit negotiations over the past few weeks. Of course, this required much compromise, some from the European Union, but mainly from the UK, despite significant disagreement within the Conservative
United Kingdom – Brexit Considerable progress has been made in the Brexit negotiations over the past few weeks. Of course, this required much compromise, some from the European Union, but mainly from the UK, despite significant disagreement within the Conservative
Considerable progress was made in the Brexit negotiations over the last few weeks. Of course, this required much comprise, some from the European Union, but mainly from the UK, despite significant disagreement within the Tory party. On March 23, the
Emerging country debt is on the increase. It is a narrative about these countries that has emerged in the recent past. At least if we go by BIS statistics. And from sovereign debt to household and corporate debt, all the
Emerging Countries – Monthly News Digest There are two ways of framing New Year wishes: either you emphasise what’s going well and hope it continues; or you make the unpleasant annual effort of remembering what’s wrong so you can hope
Economic and financial forecasts This publication presents the economists' forecasts for interest rates, exchange rates and commodity prices, along with the Crédit Agricole Group's central economic projection.
Cruel Imagination…* Even as we anxiously scan the horizon for harbingers of a downturn, the cycle continues to amaze us with its quiet power and its general propagation. To identify some of the essential ingredients of the current cycle, we
Overview of our scenario Brexit will remain the dominant theme over the next few years. 2018 will be marked by the negotiations on a transition phase and on the future relationship between the United Kingdom (UK) and the European Union
Editorial – Egypt: economy under construction, institutions neglected After widening the Suez Canal in 2015, and as construction goes ahead for the new administrative capital East of Cairo, Egypt is also embarking on a major overhaul of the very structure
Its acceleration in Q2 2017 (0.6% over the quarter after 0.5% in the previous one) was due to an improved contribution from domestic demand, and in particular from private consumption, which shows no signs of weakening, and investment that is
WORLD – Macroeconomic Scenario for 2017-2018 We had despaired of ever seeing investment pick up and jobs being created, and then of seeing wages gain traction. These classic ingredients of a burgeoning cycle are now in place, even if to
Interest rate forecasts Exchange Rate Forecasts Economic Forecasts
Prospects The opinion polls leave no doubt about the CDU/CSU taking the first place in the elections on 24 September. Unsurprisingly, Angela Merkel is well out in front on voting intentions but is unlikely to win an outright majority of
Prospects Germany’s federal elections on 24 September will designate the Chancellor who will govern Germany for the next four years. The most probable likelihood is that the current chancellor will keep her job, but she still has to convince of
Prospects The Bank of England gave a clear sign at its September monetary policy meeting that a rate hike may occur as soon as the next meeting in November. Subsequent speeches by Carney and Vlieghe have reinforced that call. The
Pleasant surprises of a slow-burn cycle The slow-burn cycle is currently delivering some pleasant surprises. There are no signs on the horizon of the excesses typical of a premature and often sudden end to a cycle. In particular, we are
ECB Focus There are too many questions, there is no ‘one solution’, there is no core inflation, there is growth celebration. And an ECB that has provided a profusion of dovish elements to make markets feel, to make markets know
Prospects The 8 June snap election was a shock for Theresa May as it resulted in a loss of the Conservative party’s absolute majority in Parliament. Even though she decided not to resign, she is vulnerable to challenges within her
United Kingdom On 8 June the British people will go back to the polls for a snap general election. Our base-case scenario is that the Conservatives will extend their parliamentary majority, as suggested by the majority of polls. However, the
Prospects Matteo Renzi has returned to frontline politics following his overwhelming victory in the Democratic Party (PD) primary. The relatively high turnout gave him sufficient legitimacy to go back on the campaign train for the upcoming partial local elections in
Emerging Countries – Monthly News Digest In the streets of Riyadh these days, large billboards show King Salman and the two crown princes praising the country’s National Transformation Plan (NTP). The logo surrounding the national emblem conjures up fountains, oasis-coloured
Prospects Resilient household consumption growth was a key feature of UK growth in the months following the Brexit vote, but the turning point seems close now. The inflation-driven erosion in real incomes coupled with the outlook for less favourable labour
Aligning timescales The UK’s decision to leave the EU, Donald Trump’s election victory in the US and alternative election manifestoes offered to European voters – the political ambitions are great, the solutions radical, the narratives appealing. The exciting American story
Economic and financial forecasts
