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Our monthly market analysis and positioning

Our monthly market analysis and positioning

🕔07:52, 21.Apr 2022

The past month, and indeed the entire first quarter, has been dramatic in every respect. The invasion of Ukraine by Russian troops not only revealed that German politicians in particular had been mistaken about the Russian leader, Vladimir Putin. It

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How inflation turned out to be anything but transitory

How inflation turned out to be anything but transitory

🕔08:12, 19.Apr 2022

German consumer price rises hit a 42-year high, and probably have not peaked yet In Germany and elsewhere, inflation has accelerated and will probably continue to do so for quite a while. Each new inflation release increases pressures on central

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ESG is quality, it just isn’t really

ESG is quality, it just isn’t really

🕔08:23, 18.Apr 2022

In the past decades, humankind has been facing evermore alarming events which have shifted our consciousness towards more sustainable thinking. Natural disasters, such as immense bushfires in Australia, countless floods throughout Europe, Asia and the US or social disasters, such

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Long View – The return implications of climate risk

Long View – The return implications of climate risk

🕔09:05, 31.Mar 2022

The Russo-Ukrainian war is dominating news headlines as well as financial markets. Any short-term forecast is subject to a high degree of uncertainty, given the risks surrounding the course of the war and the impact of sanctions and countersanctions. Contrastingly,

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Carbon markets: The why, what & where

Carbon markets: The why, what & where

🕔13:46, 8.Mar 2022

In this paper we provide a guide to carbon and their trading systems. We pay particular attention to the scope and breadth of carbon schemes and why they are an important part of achieving net zero.

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2022 Outlook: It hinges on putting inflation back in the bottle

2022 Outlook: It hinges on putting inflation back in the bottle

🕔14:29, 31.Dec 2021

Another good year for investment returns ahead, if inflation trends downward Enormous fiscal stimulus, funded by monetary policy, and pandemic induced supply-side challenges pushed inflation to its highest level in nearly 40 years. This poses risk to cycle longevity and

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A red wave at the US midterms?

A red wave at the US midterms?

🕔08:44, 27.Dec 2021

It’s a bit early to say how next year’s mid-term elections will go. That’s doubly true in terms of potential market implications. U.S. electoral history and some early signs in the data suggest that Republicans should do reasonably well in

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Investment Traffic Lights December 2021

Investment Traffic Lights December 2021

🕔09:15, 22.Dec 2021

New Omicron virus mutation and a hawkish Jerome Powell turned November into a rather negative month for most asset classes. Whether this is considered a good entry point largely depends on one’s assessment of Omicron and inflation. At this point

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November Investment Traffic Lights

November Investment Traffic Lights

🕔11:57, 15.Nov 2021

CIO View October has seen new record highs and record returns Events were less friendly to bonds, as inflation fears are prompting central banks to act sooner than expected Many investors are hopeful of the traditional year-end rally, but the

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Bundesbank chief Weidmann to step down

Bundesbank chief Weidmann to step down

🕔10:45, 8.Nov 2021

Bundesbank President Weidmann today surprisingly announced his resignation at the end of 2021 and gave personal reasons for this decision. Jens Weidmann was considered a proven monetary-policy hawk within the Governing Council of the European Central Bank (ECB). During his

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Beware nitrous engine damage

Beware nitrous engine damage

🕔16:45, 26.Oct 2021

Will price hikes be the next S&P EPS leap?: Beware nitrous engine damage This earnings season, we expect S&P 500 companies to beat analyst earnings estimates by more normal amounts; by roughly 5% in aggregate, not 20%+ like the last

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German voters’ mixed verdict

German voters’ mixed verdict

🕔15:55, 4.Oct 2021

Germany’s voter have spoken. And, compared to other countries, traditional parties of the political center have done quite well, overall. But what government exactly the electoral verdict will translate into is likely to remain unclear for a while yet. Both

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For our 12-month outlook we remain cautiously optimistic

For our 12-month outlook we remain cautiously optimistic

🕔10:36, 30.Sep 2021

August was friendly, which it often hasn’t been in the past. In bonds, little happened overall. Government bonds and investment-grade corporate bonds showed a slightly negative total return, while the high-yield segment, as well as Asian bonds, just made it

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Our Monthly Market Analysis And Positioning

Our Monthly Market Analysis And Positioning

🕔10:40, 16.Sep 2021

Welcome to the first issue of the Investment Traffic Lights “Quarterly Edition.” The Quarterly Editions will focus on our strategic twelve-month forecasts that follow our quarterly strategy meetings, which also means that the “Market overview” section will be shorter than

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Another amazingly good quarter. What next?

Another amazingly good quarter. What next?

🕔13:19, 7.Sep 2021

The markets easily withstood many adversities in the summer. In the coming twelve months equities and real estate remain our favorites, though their potential returns are only moderate.  Asurprisingly good quarter is behind us. Despite the delta variant, the U.S.-China

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china and the US move apart

china and the US move apart

🕔10:26, 6.Sep 2021

A more complex relationship with a global impact 1 / It started with a trade war… 2 / …and has shifted to technology and human rights 3 / Regional political relations are becoming more complicated, too 4 / The battle

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Long View Q2: the impact of rates on returns

Long View Q2: the impact of rates on returns

🕔08:15, 30.Aug 2021

1 / Summary Within this report, we present the DWS long-term capital market assumptions as of the end of June 2021 for major asset classes. As the world has continued to rebound strongly from the COVID-19 crisis, global risk markets

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China Has A (Regulatory) Plan

China Has A (Regulatory) Plan

🕔10:01, 19.Aug 2021

China increases regulatory pressure as part of its new five-year plan. By tightening the regulation of education providers on July 23, the Chinese government dealt another blow to investors. Individual stocks in the sector lost over two-thirds of their market

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Things are so good that it’s time for a break

Things are so good that it’s time for a break

🕔20:05, 7.Jul 2021

A buoyant economic recovery, record stock markets and calm bond markets. Things have been going all too well and the next surprises are unlikely to be positive. Global economic growth is slightly up, so are equity price targets, though, we see

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Blue economy: A new twist in an old tragedy

Blue economy: A new twist in an old tragedy

🕔12:30, 8.Jun 2021

Markets and policymakers are finally waking up to the challenges and opportunities of protecting marine ecosystems, while simultaneously promoting sustainable development. It sounds like small fish. Back in 2017, the Seychelles put the finishing touches to a marine conservation scheme

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Long View – Inflation

Long View – Inflation

🕔12:47, 1.Jun 2021

As regions across the globe emerge from the COVID-19 pandemic, there is a growing sense of optimism about economic acceleration. The strength in global PMIs and measures of consumer confidence (such as the University of Michigan consumer sentiment and the

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From “fad” to fact

From “fad” to fact

🕔14:48, 17.Mar 2021

Joe Biden’s inauguration looks increasingly likely to mark a sea change for sustainable investing. This could have lasting implications well beyond U.S. shores.  

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Commodities and bond yields have risen sharply in February

Commodities and bond yields have risen sharply in February

🕔09:07, 9.Mar 2021

How would investors have positioned themselves if they had correctly foreseen the course of the Covid-19 pandemic twelve months ago? Global equities (MSCI AC World Index) had already fallen by 14% in February 2020. In March, they fell by …

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The green decade

The green decade

🕔11:35, 1.Mar 2021

There is no shortage of challenges for long term investors. The strong performance of risk assets in 2020 has further compressed return expectations, and there exists ongoing concern about (i) how economies will emerge from the current crisis …

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ESG in Strategic Asset Allocation

ESG in Strategic Asset Allocation

🕔14:46, 5.Jan 2021

A Practical Implementation Framework December 2020 Much research has been made in the past few years about how to integrate ESG in various asset classes; however, ESG research on a total portfolio level—or strategic asset allocation (SAA) level—is still very

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Our 12-month Economic & Market Outlook

Our 12-month Economic & Market Outlook

🕔09:33, 15.Dec 2020

Would our annual outlook for 2021 have looked different if we had written it in mid-October? Yes, but only in part. Little would have changed in our economic forecasts but our asset-class outlook would have been different. What has taken

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October started strongly but ended weakly as Covid concerns rose again.

October started strongly but ended weakly as Covid concerns rose again.

🕔15:02, 13.Nov 2020

"After all, it is difficult to determine which election outcome the market had priced in, when and with what probability. "

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Strong S&P 500 EPS Results for the Third Quarter

Strong S&P 500 EPS Results for the Third Quarter

🕔15:09, 29.Oct 2020

Strong S&P 500 EPS Results for the Third Quarter, Probably the Best of the Year CIO | View – Americas CIO View Powerful direct fiscal assistance to small businesses and households, forbearance programs, business reopening's and warmer weather all helped

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The future of office spaces

The future of office spaces

🕔07:37, 27.Oct 2020

Contrary to common fears, Covid-19’s long-term effect on office demand might actually be accretive, or at least not destructive. Many observers have claimed that the pandemic has revealed city-center offices to be relics of the 20th century. We take a

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CIO View – Investment Traffic Lights

CIO View – Investment Traffic Lights

🕔08:06, 15.Sep 2020

MARKET OVERVIEW  In August, investors were risk-on and helped the stock markets in particular to some new record highs. The economic recovery continues to progress but is losing some of its momentum. From a strategic point of view we see

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DWS Long View – Q2 2020 update

DWS Long View – Q2 2020 update

🕔11:19, 19.Aug 2020

Within this report, we present the DWS long term capital market assumptions1 as of the end of June 2020 for major asset classes. Back in April we published a report analyzing the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on long-term return

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No Recovery Yet

No Recovery Yet

🕔09:58, 3.Aug 2020

Crude continues to oscillate, as the pace of economic recovery and uncertainty over lifting or re-imposing lockdowns drive market sentiment. A weaker U.S. dollar, negative real interest rates and uncertainty amid the coronavirus pandemic are propelling gold prices. We expect

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Covid-19 And The Internet Of Things

Covid-19 And The Internet Of Things

🕔08:02, 29.Jul 2020

Conventional wisdom has it that Covid-19 will speed up familiar trends, such as those toward automation and digitization. A closer look at one of the supposed beneficiaries, the Internet of Things, suggests a more nuanced picture. The ultimate outcome may

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Big Numbers Alone Make No Proper Monetary Policy

Big Numbers Alone Make No Proper Monetary Policy

🕔08:09, 27.Jul 2020

Aggressive interest rate cuts, liquidity provisions and quantitative easing worked well. Buying facilities rather serve as a backstop.  Based on a diminishing marginal effect from Large Scale Asset Purchases (LSAP), the Fed might do more for longer to support

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How a virus may speed up the energy transition

How a virus may speed up the energy transition

🕔14:59, 9.Jul 2020

What the last few months taught us about winners, losers and survivors in European electricity markets.  The Covid-19 pandemic already looks set to cause the biggest drop in global energy demand in modern history in 2020.  Especially in Europe, the

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Passive Investing 2020 – Addressing climate change in investment portfolios

Passive Investing 2020 – Addressing climate change in investment portfolios

🕔08:04, 3.Jul 2020

This 2020 global survey is part of an annual research programme by DWS and CREATEResearch. It is designed to highlight the forward trends in passive investing. This year’s survey looks at how pension investors are using passive funds to deal

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Almost back to normal

Almost back to normal

🕔09:22, 23.Jun 2020

The world is going through its most severe recession since the Second World War. Unemployment and short-time working1 are at record levels in many countries, rating agencies are lowering their ratings at record …

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Optimism Overdone

Optimism Overdone

🕔15:33, 19.Jun 2020

We are cautious about the oil price after its rapid recovery. A weaker dollar, low real interest rates and higher inflation expectations are likely to support gold. We reaffirm our belief that China will meet the requirements of the phase-one

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At a turning point

At a turning point

🕔13:21, 18.Jun 2020

Five months into the Covid pandemic, there are signs of improvements. The risk of setbacks remains high, however.  Globally, infection rates remain worryingly high. In developed markets, a resurgence in outbreaks appears likely. Despite recent progress in containing Covid-19, the

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Back to normal. But what is normal?

Back to normal. But what is normal?

🕔12:58, 15.Jun 2020

The record market slide has been followed by record-breaking stimulus – and a superfast rally. The economy is yet to follow.   Coronavirus and its repercussions continue to dominate people's lives, the economy and stock markets. The calming in continental Europe's

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Green, healthy buildings as economic stimulus

Green, healthy buildings as economic stimulus

🕔13:24, 9.Jun 2020

EU policy recommendations on starting a paradigm shift We welcome the EU’s intention to ‘Rebuild Europe’ by accelerating gren building renovation1 to support economic recovery, to support our health2 , to reduce carbon emissions and improve energy security.  

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Layers of Uncertainty

Layers of Uncertainty

🕔15:13, 25.May 2020

US Economic Outlook As an economist one has to live with uncertainty. Perhaps, that is why many economists have fallen in love with statistics and mathematics, as they promise at least some clarity. And, depending …

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Ready or not, normal here we come: but hard to find for many

Ready or not, normal here we come: but hard to find for many

🕔12:00, 25.May 2020

Americas CIO View The severe economic damage of widespread non-essential activity lockdowns to U.S. and European economies is moving behind, but we expect a slow recovery with elevated …

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Post the Oil-Price Inflection

Post the Oil-Price Inflection

🕔09:20, 20.May 2020

CIO Commodity Commentary Oil is again trading near its five-week high, with a West Texas Intermediate (WTI) price of around 29.5 dollars per barrel – a bit higher than half its end-February level. After April's rollercoaster …

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DWS Long View: The impact of COVID-19 pandemic on long-term return forecasts

DWS Long View: The impact of COVID-19 pandemic on long-term return forecasts

🕔14:42, 12.May 2020

Entering 2020, the long-run return forecasts across asset classes left something to be desired. The rich valuations meant that investors could only expect low returns from most asset classes going forward. A lot has changed with the …

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A downturn unlike any other?

A downturn unlike any other?

🕔08:57, 12.May 2020

Quarterly CIO View Around the globe, the rapidly spreading Coronavirus has created unprecedented political, public-health and economic crises. Not that you would necessarily know, if you had fallen asleep in mid-February and were only now checking …

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COVID-19 and the financial markets Spotlight: Fixed Income

COVID-19 and the financial markets Spotlight: Fixed Income

🕔13:21, 7.May 2020

While the numbers of new infections and related fatalities are growing with slowing momentum, the discussion around the pace and scope of easing lockdowns becomes increasingly heated. Latest GDP figures and rising unemployment rates are among other figures fueling the

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Living in history: how will we look back at this moment?

Living in history: how will we look back at this moment?

🕔13:42, 1.May 2020

Pandemic 2020: a passing moment or a new era that shapes our future? New cycles tend to bring new trends, themes and investment leadership. First-quarter earnings season and preliminary economic reports confirm recession. David Bianco Prevention measures will shift to

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ETF Trading in Volatile Times

ETF Trading in Volatile Times

🕔08:02, 29.Apr 2020

Investment Insights The ongoing market volatility caused by the COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in record trading volumes against a backdrop of reduced liquidity in all asset classes. Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) have so far, and once again, proven their resilience

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Corona and TALF 2.0

Corona and TALF 2.0

🕔11:35, 27.Apr 2020

The Fed has expanded the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF) in an effort to improve financing for households and small businesses. Liquidity has improved dramatically for TALF-eligible assets now that both dealers and investors know the downside is relatively

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