Our Monthly Market Analysis and Positioning The investment traffic lights review the past month and preview the next one. But at this point, at the beginning of a new decade, it is timely to consider not just December, but also
Commodities and the energy space in particular have been challenged by the coronavirus outbreak. How the infection rate evolves over the upcoming days and weeks will be critical, especially to the oil-price outlook. Chinese copper importers have declared force majeure.
Efforts to measure, stress test and manage climate risks among insurers are accelerating A report from the UN Environment Inquiry into a Sustainable Financial System 2 concluded that “In its role as risk manager, risk carrier and investor, insurance is
The S&P 500 remains a broad equity index, but its sector mix has changed As the S&P 500 sets new record highs this month – led by tech reaching new highs, while energy revisits 2016 lows – we decided to reexamine
The number of people suffering from the coronavirus continues to increase every day. Meanwhile, the stock markets are chasing record highs again. How does that fit together? Stock markets are chasing records again. This may be somewhat surprising, given that
The dawn of a new decade The world has been trying to find a new economic identity ever since the 2008 financial crisis. The journey has been arduous so far, with the scars of the financial crisis still quite raw.
While specific equity risks can be avoided, avoiding fixed income and broad market risk premia still leads to missing out on returns. Strategically, focusing on return drivers, value destruction during drawdowns and unnecessary return dilution may become instrumental to asset
The recovery in manufacturing has been slow, a longer wait is now likely. Global manufacturing PMIs remain in contraction territory. Equipment: indicators show better spend on computer equipment. Construction: weak especially at manufacturing and energy businesses. Currency: strong U.S. dollar
Chart of the Week Starting tomorrow, February 1, 2020, the United Kingdom (UK) will no longer be a member of the European Union (EU). More than 40 years after joining, majority of UK voters have decided that their countries' future
A New Decade: Long for Longer? Staying invested may look like an unavoidable proposition as long–term structural shifts dampen future return outlooks but also risks. There is little doubt that investing comes with risk, but when looking back at the
We expect the virus to leave a clear mark on China's economy and stock market in the first quarter. Beyond that, we can only speculate at this stage. Despite the interim recovery, financial markets are likely to be burdened by
– We provide a representative sampling of the overall 2020 electoral outcomes you may currently want to consider when making investment decisions. – Most likely, the outcome may be in what we call the Mushy Middle (epitomized by various combinations
As much as central banks drive bond markets, as little they drive currencies. At least in the short term. But in 2020 they are likely to drive little anyways. Even though central banks were once again among the most important
CIO View, Chart of the Week As much as central banks drive bond markets, as little they drive currencies. At least in the short term. But in 2020 they are likely to drive little anyways. Even though central banks were
S&P 500 target for 2020 yearend is 3300 with flat probabilities from 3100 to 3500 Fade clarity proclamations: most of 2019's concerns will return in January For 2020, carefully assess your risk tolerance and gain/loss utility, diversify!
In 2018, earnings were growing at double-digit rates, while equity markets were trading down. In 2019, however, earnings stagnated, and equities rose substantially. What a year! From today's point of view, market comments from one year ago are a fun
What happens after a mid-cycle slow down? Once again, the most likely answer in the current extended cycle appears to be "yet another moderate upswing." In 2020, we expect about 5% in total returns for global equities. And lest that
Demand for apartments has been robust following the bursting of the housing bubble a decade ago. Apartment investors devote a significant amount of time and resources to determine what unit features and community amenities are most desirable to current and
A new year begins and also a new decade that will bring fresh uncertainties and challenges. One thing that looks certain is that the pace of change will increase in technology, in the economy and perhaps in politics, too. We
We expect little movement in bond yields. It's again in corporates and emerging markets that we look for potential returns. We expect neither the Fed nor the ECB to cut or raise rates in 2020. Euro corporate bonds and emerging-market
Downside risks to global growth have shrunk in recent months. But we do not see much potential for an upside surprise either. In recent months, leading economic indicators stabilized. We remain somewhat hopeful that a truce in the trade war between China
Corporate-profit figures used in U.S. national-income statistics suggest that earnings quality may have declined. Should Wall Street investors trust reported company earnings? Especially at this stage of the economic cycle, it might be worth taking them with a teaspoon of
Market Overview October was all about talk of deals and crucial deadlines. What happened? The deals got nowhere and the deadlines were missed. How did markets react? Equities went up still more and bonds hung around. It is remarkable how
A moderation of NIPA corporate profits may well imply lower GDP growth in 2020. However, we do not expect a recession in the next twelve months. The Fed should stay neutral into 2020; we expect its communication to remain slightly
The investment prospects for next year aren't bad. But the next decade doesn't look anything like the past one. Anew year begins and also a new decade that will bring fresh uncertainties and challenges. One thing that looks certain is
What is the Optimal Number of Equity Managers? -> https://www.opiniopro.com/2020/02/pgim/what-is-the-optimal-number-of-equity-managers/ #managerselection #portfolioconstruction via @pgim
Crisis & Events S&P 500 Index -> https://www.opiniopro.com/2020/02/first-trust/crisis-events-sp-500-index/ #crisis #Equities #longterm via @ftportfolios
How to use iBonds like a pro -> https://www.opiniopro.com/2020/02/blackrock/how-to-use-ibonds-like-a-pro/ #AssetAllocation #CentralBanks #Fed #Fixedeincome via @blackrock
Slower for longer? -> https://www.opiniopro.com/2020/02/natixis/slower-for-longer/ #AssetAllocation #china #coronavirus #Equities #fixedincome via @NatixisIM @natixis
CTAs lead the pack on global risk appetite. what’s next? -> https://www.opiniopro.com/2020/02/lyxor/ctas-lead-the-pack-on-global-risk-appetite-whats-next/ #alternatives #cta #globalmacro #hedgefunds via @Lyxor
