Current news is focusing on an issue that nevertheless concerns an expected long-term time horizon, i.e. 2030-2100. The issue of climate change and the challenge of limiting global warming to +2.0°C, even less if possible, on the only planet we
Risk assets were lifted this week by the partial US-China agreement and hopes of a solution to avoid a no-deal Brexit. The US-China agreement stipulated that Washington would not raise tariffs on $250bnworth of Chinese imports by 25-30% on October
Equity markets rebounded this week while bonds experienced a correction. Investors continue to attempt to gauge the reality of the deterioration in global manufacturing activity and the impact of the countermeasures in the form of monetary and fiscal support. Short-term
The economic and political climate is glum, and things continue to worsen. Although we do not predict a recession in the foreseeable future, we nevertheless cannot identify any factor likely to reverse the cycle. Looking at historical economic data for
Apart from a technical lift on the last day of the third quarter, markets retreated as a fresh wave of bad political and economic news arrived. Both industrial and services ISM data fell much more than consensus expectations. Manufacturing ISM
Once again, markets danced to the tune of developments in US politics and the trade war. The Democrats started a pre-impeachment procedure against Donald Trump. Washington is still looking for a broad agreement with Beijing, one that goes beyond simply
US-China tensions eased further over the week and Beijing exempted US products from import duties only a few days before both sides were due to meet for talks. China might even resume importing US agricultural products like soya. Meanwhile, over
Equity markets finally rebounded on reduced tensions in Hong Kong, mounting obstacles in Boris Johnson’s way towards a no-deal Brexit and news that US-China talks were to resume. Economic data remained mixed between upbeat consumer services and fears of an
Political declarations took centre stage this week, starting with the usual twists and turns on the trade war front. Following a tit-for-tat escalation in customs tariffs, the mood turned more conciliatory and talks will now probably resume. However, Donald Trump’s
So far this year, equity markets generally posted the sort of returns that would normally be unthinkable amid an earnings slowdown, an increasingly fragile economic cycle and a political environment that has become so risky that global corporate confidence levels
The US Commerce Department’s lift to markets at the beginning of the week soon fizzled out. Half of previously tariff-free Chinese imports will now be spared the proposed duties up to December 15. This concerns $150bn vs. a total of
Markets struggled to regain their calm although the risk of Chinese currency manipulation abated. Fundamental worries over an economic slowdown -with its litany of negative interest rates and yield curve inversion – returned to haunt investors. Second quarter results were
The Fed and the ECB have managed to firmly establish lower interest rates while pushing risk assets higher. Investors are sceptical amid high political and economic uncertainty but, at least for the time being, the central bank actions have helped
Central banks once again remained centre stage. Judging from falls in the euro and European sovereign bond yields, investors were clearly expecting big developments over the week. And yet the ECB meeting raised more questions than answers. True, the ECB
Unconvincing results and fresh US-China tensions leave investors hesitant. The US economy remained buoyant thanks to strong consumer spending. Retail sales were underpinned by a 4% lift to wages and falling oil prices (as tensions with Iran abated and fears
Market flash Meanwhile, the European Union made a number of senior appointments. After lengthy negotiations, a reflection of Europe’s very politically diverse nature, Ursula von der Leyen was put forward as European Commission president while Christine Lagarde was proposed as
Market Flash The week kicked off with an increasing amount of disappointing economic data, particularly in China, prolonging concerns over growth and driving investors’ risk aversion sharply higher. Speaking at a conference in Chicago, J. Powell confirmed comments from several
Trade war uncertainties continued while the latest advanced indicators delivered increasingly contradictory signals. Conference Board indicators on consumer confidence rebounded in May amid very buoyant labour market conditions. Note, however, that the survey was up to May 16 and therefore
Market Flash The US trade dispute continued to worry markets and US and German companies. At the end of the period, US PMI data remained in positive territory but showed confidence levels slipping. The Fed stayed in wait-and-see mode as
Market Flash In a week full of twists and turns, US-China trade talks turned complicated. Donald Trump is now expected to postpone the introduction of tariffs on European car and spare part imports to the US. This coincided with a
Market Flash Volatility rebounded from lows after Donald Trump threatened to raise tariffs on certain Chinese imports from 10% to 25% from Friday May 10 if trade talks failed make substantial progress. He followed through on this threat even though
Market Flash A shortened week got off to a positive start with S&P maintaining Italy at BBB with a negative outlook. Spain's elections saw the Socialist party come out on top with more seats than previously but still no absolute
There were no clear indications on market trends this week, a reflection of the difficulty investors are having in distinguishing between good and bad macro and company news. – Germany’s industrial PMI and IFO index remained weak, leading Berlin to
The Earnings Season Kicks Off US markets pushed inexorably towards all-time highs, leaving the S&P500 only 40 points off its September 2018 peak. However, trading was still thin, especially for the beginning of the quarterly earnings season. First quarter earnings
The Earnings Season Kicks Off US markets pushed inexorably towards all-time highs, leaving the S&P500 only 40 points off its September 2018 peak. However, trading was still thin, especially for the beginning of the quarterly earnings season. First quarter earnings
#Bonds – Losing my Religion -> https://t.co/sv0ec7JDnR #fixedincome #governmentbonds #highyield #emergingmarketdebt via @Investec
Varps Remains Compelling -> https://t.co/X9Ij0XLVpQ #EmergingMarkets #frontiermarkets via @GAMinsights
Varps Remains Compelling -> https://t.co/X9Ij0XLVpQ #VARPS #EmergingMarkets #Equities via @GAMinsights
The SRI Chronicles -> https://t.co/Fvk5LpkOvX #SRI #ESG #UNPRI #ClimateCrisis via @EdeRothschild
With diverging credit and domestic demand trends in China, our expert #Anthony_Chan identifies the two main factors to watch. Read on.
