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Posts From Edmond de Rothschild

Pricing this crisis is very tricky

Pricing this crisis is very tricky

🕔15:10, 25.Mar 2020

Special Flash Over the last week, markets have already suffered trading days with vertiginous falls amid chaotic trading. On March 12, most equity markets tumbled by more than 10% and even safe havens like 30-year US Treasuries lost more than

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Stock Market Indices in Free Fall

Stock Market Indices in Free Fall

🕔13:06, 18.Mar 2020

Market Flash What a week! After Saudi Arabia’s surprise decision to massively increase oil supply despite a collapse in demand, Donald Trump decided quite simply to cut off the US from most of Europe. Fortunately, the FED, the BoE, the

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Risk Factors Resurge

Risk Factors Resurge

🕔14:34, 3.Feb 2020

Market Flash The coronavirus outbreak dominated trading, triggering risk aversion, weighing on global equity markets and accentuating the move down in bond yields which kicked off at the beginning of January. The epidemic continued to spread in China, forcing the

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Risk resurface

Risk resurface

🕔15:32, 27.Jan 2020

Markets stuck close to all-time highs despite a resurgence in risk-off sentiment. This was prompted by: First, sanitary concerns after confirmation that China's coronavirus could be spread between humans. The situation might seem to echo the period in 2003 when the

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Outlook & Convictions

Outlook & Convictions

🕔13:44, 13.Jan 2020

Even without an increase in tension with Iran, global growth this year should slow further due to the US presidential campaign, higher customs tariffs remaining in place and Chinese abnegation. THE TRADE WAR SHOULD CONTINUE TO AFFECT GLOBAL GROWTH The

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Asset Allocation Strategy

Asset Allocation Strategy

🕔10:32, 13.Dec 2019

 Equity markets continued to push higher and credit spreads tightened in November as economic data stabilised or improved. Sentiment was also boosted by a crop of political comments suggesting the US and China would soon sign a Phase 1 agreement

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Trade war uncertainty resurfaces

Trade war uncertainty resurfaces

🕔11:01, 4.Dec 2019

Market flash Hong Kong’s pro- democracy party won 85% of the seats in the local elections, a massive increase on the 25% seen in 2015. A few days later, Donald Trump signed the Hong Kong Rights and Democracy Act into

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ASSET ALLOCATION STRATEGY

ASSET ALLOCATION STRATEGY

🕔13:36, 2.Dec 2019

Market Analysis and Principal Investment Themes These cyclical shifts are based on: Encouraging declarations over a first phase agreement in the US-China trade talks; A much reduced risk of a hard Brexit in the short term; and A few PMI

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Market Flash: Global Growth Hopes Edge Higher

Market Flash: Global Growth Hopes Edge Higher

🕔09:41, 21.Nov 2019

The big news item of the week was Germany’s third quarter GDP which rose 0.1%, narrowly missing a move into recessionary territory. Expectations were for a 0.1% drop and second quarter GDP was revised down to -0.2%. However, over a

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Markets may have changed a little but the fundamental trend has not

Markets may have changed a little but the fundamental trend has not

🕔10:30, 7.Nov 2019

The recent drop in political risk is a significant shift in a climate of almost constant one-upmanship. It is highly likely that hopes over a US-China deal and the diminishing risk of a hard Brexit mainly reflect the willingness of all concerned

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Investment Strategy October 2019

Investment Strategy October 2019

🕔11:51, 4.Nov 2019

As measured by the MSCI World All Countries index in local currencies, equities have stalled again. The index level is pretty much the same as it was in July and May this year, indeed it is only up a couple

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The Focus Shifts To Earnings Reports

The Focus Shifts To Earnings Reports

🕔10:50, 29.Oct 2019

Brexit commotion dominated market sentiment after the agreement reached by Boris Johnson failed to go to a vote in the Commons over the last weekend. The UK prime minister eventually got a majority for his text but accelerated adoption was

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The SRI Chronicles

The SRI Chronicles

🕔13:44, 23.Oct 2019

Current news is focusing on an issue that nevertheless concerns an expected long-term time horizon, i.e. 2030-2100. The issue of climate change and the challenge of limiting global warming to +2.0°C, even less if possible, on the only planet we

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Market Flash: The Geopolitical Climate Recovers A Little

Market Flash: The Geopolitical Climate Recovers A Little

🕔11:50, 22.Oct 2019

Risk assets were lifted this week by the partial US-China agreement and hopes of a solution to avoid a no-deal Brexit. The US-China agreement stipulated that Washington would not raise tariffs on $250bnworth of Chinese imports by 25-30% on October

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Market Flash: After The Last Week’s Drop Stocks Rebounded

Market Flash: After The Last Week’s Drop Stocks Rebounded

🕔10:41, 17.Oct 2019

Equity markets rebounded this week while bonds experienced a correction. Investors continue to attempt to gauge the reality of the deterioration in global manufacturing activity and the impact of the countermeasures in the form of monetary and fiscal support. Short-term

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Asset Allocation Strategy October 2019

Asset Allocation Strategy October 2019

🕔17:37, 10.Oct 2019

 The economic and political climate is glum, and things continue to worsen. Although we do not predict a recession in the foreseeable future, we nevertheless cannot identify any factor likely to reverse the cycle. Looking at historical economic data for

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Market Flash – The stock market plunges: is it a feeling of déjà vu?

Market Flash – The stock market plunges: is it a feeling of déjà vu?

🕔10:50, 10.Oct 2019

Apart from a technical lift on the last day of the third quarter, markets retreated as a fresh wave of bad political and economic news arrived. Both industrial and services ISM data fell much more than consensus expectations. Manufacturing ISM

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Market Flash: The Geopolitical Context Remains Uncertain

Market Flash: The Geopolitical Context Remains Uncertain

🕔13:49, 3.Oct 2019

Once again, markets danced to the tune of developments in US politics and the trade war. The Democrats started a pre-impeachment procedure against Donald Trump. Washington is still looking for a broad agreement with Beijing, one that goes beyond simply

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Market Flash: The Spirit Of Compromise Returns

Market Flash: The Spirit Of Compromise Returns

🕔16:55, 17.Sep 2019

US-China tensions eased further over the week and Beijing exempted US products from import duties only a few days before both sides were due to meet for talks. China might even resume importing US agricultural products like soya. Meanwhile, over

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Market Flash: A Whiff Of Optimism Lifts Markets

Market Flash: A Whiff Of Optimism Lifts Markets

🕔07:48, 13.Sep 2019

Equity markets finally rebounded on reduced tensions in Hong Kong, mounting obstacles in Boris Johnson’s way towards a no-deal Brexit and news that US-China talks were to resume. Economic data remained mixed between upbeat consumer services and fears of an

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Market Flash: Political Developments Remain Centre Stage

Market Flash: Political Developments Remain Centre Stage

🕔11:04, 3.Sep 2019

Political declarations took centre stage this week, starting with the usual twists and turns on the trade war front. Following a tit-for-tat escalation in customs tariffs, the mood turned more conciliatory and talks will now probably resume. However, Donald Trump’s

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Asset Allocation Strategy September 2019

Asset Allocation Strategy September 2019

🕔14:37, 23.Aug 2019

So far this year, equity markets generally posted the sort of returns that would normally be unthinkable amid an earnings slowdown, an increasingly fragile economic cycle and a political environment that has become so risky that global corporate confidence levels

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Market Flash: Global Data Worry Markets

Market Flash: Global Data Worry Markets

🕔09:36, 20.Aug 2019

The US Commerce Department’s lift to markets at the beginning of the week soon fizzled out. Half of previously tariff-free Chinese imports will now be spared the proposed duties up to December 15. This concerns $150bn vs. a total of

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Market Flash: The Outlook Remains Uncertain

Market Flash: The Outlook Remains Uncertain

🕔14:08, 13.Aug 2019

Markets struggled to regain their calm although the risk of Chinese currency manipulation abated. Fundamental worries over an economic slowdown -with its litany of negative interest rates and yield curve inversion – returned to haunt investors. Second quarter results were

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Central Banks are committed to reassuring investors

Central Banks are committed to reassuring investors

🕔15:36, 5.Aug 2019

The Fed and the ECB have managed to firmly establish lower interest rates while pushing risk assets higher. Investors are sceptical amid high political and economic uncertainty but, at least for the time being, the central bank actions have helped

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The corona shock in commodity prices -> https://opiniopro.com/2020/04/abn-amro/the-corona-shock-in-commodity-prices/ #Commodities #GOLD #oilprice #OPEC #coronavirus #COVID19 via
@ABNAMROeconomen

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