Market Flash Markets are in wait-and-see mode. Investors are waiting to see a new stimulus plan in the US, the presidential election results, progress in finalising Brexit and positive developments in the search for a coronavirus vaccine. They are also
The financial panic caused by Covid-19 and the halt in the global economy have been brought under control thanks to budget plans and monetary action by central banks. Having seen the dollar plummet at the height of the crisis, accelerated
Market Flash Joe Biden has continued to widen his poll lead since the first TV debate and the news that Donald Trump had gone down with Covid. Online sites have him at 65% vs. a mere 35% for Trump. Biden
Market Flash All eyes were on central banks. As expected, the Fed left its rates unchanged. It even said they would not move until inflation rose above 2% and stayed there for some time, a situation it does not expect
Market Flash US equities broke fresh records as new Coronavirus cases fell sharply and the overall sanitary situation improved. The contrast was strong with Europe where there was a surge in new cases even if the number of people on
Our new macroeconomic scenario is based on theoretical analysis of previous flu epidemics and not on the general equilibrium models used by international institutions. We forecast a less pronounced decline in activity in 2020 but also a weaker rebound in
Market Flash The week start got off to a strong start thanks to two positive developments. Angela Merkel and Emmanuel Macron announced a plan to boost the European budget by €500bn to help countries and sectors which had been the
FLASH What do we know about Coronavirus Covid-19 at this stage? There is still some uncertainty over its toxicity as data from the Hubei province are very different from other affected countries. For example, the mortality rate ranges from 0.1%,
Market Flash Risk appetite returned in force over the period as a number of countries unveiled plans to ease lockdown measures, encouraging investors to anticipate a gradual recovery in activity. S&P amplified the trend by maintaining Italy's rating and its
Special Flash Over the last week, markets have already suffered trading days with vertiginous falls amid chaotic trading. On March 12, most equity markets tumbled by more than 10% and even safe havens like 30-year US Treasuries lost more than
Market Flash What a week! After Saudi Arabia’s surprise decision to massively increase oil supply despite a collapse in demand, Donald Trump decided quite simply to cut off the US from most of Europe. Fortunately, the FED, the BoE, the
Market Flash The coronavirus outbreak dominated trading, triggering risk aversion, weighing on global equity markets and accentuating the move down in bond yields which kicked off at the beginning of January. The epidemic continued to spread in China, forcing the
Markets stuck close to all-time highs despite a resurgence in risk-off sentiment. This was prompted by: First, sanitary concerns after confirmation that China's coronavirus could be spread between humans. The situation might seem to echo the period in 2003 when the
Even without an increase in tension with Iran, global growth this year should slow further due to the US presidential campaign, higher customs tariffs remaining in place and Chinese abnegation. THE TRADE WAR SHOULD CONTINUE TO AFFECT GLOBAL GROWTH The
Equity markets continued to push higher and credit spreads tightened in November as economic data stabilised or improved. Sentiment was also boosted by a crop of political comments suggesting the US and China would soon sign a Phase 1 agreement
Market flash Hong Kong’s pro- democracy party won 85% of the seats in the local elections, a massive increase on the 25% seen in 2015. A few days later, Donald Trump signed the Hong Kong Rights and Democracy Act into
Market Analysis and Principal Investment Themes These cyclical shifts are based on: Encouraging declarations over a first phase agreement in the US-China trade talks; A much reduced risk of a hard Brexit in the short term; and A few PMI
The big news item of the week was Germany’s third quarter GDP which rose 0.1%, narrowly missing a move into recessionary territory. Expectations were for a 0.1% drop and second quarter GDP was revised down to -0.2%. However, over a
The recent drop in political risk is a significant shift in a climate of almost constant one-upmanship. It is highly likely that hopes over a US-China deal and the diminishing risk of a hard Brexit mainly reflect the willingness of all concerned
As measured by the MSCI World All Countries index in local currencies, equities have stalled again. The index level is pretty much the same as it was in July and May this year, indeed it is only up a couple
Brexit commotion dominated market sentiment after the agreement reached by Boris Johnson failed to go to a vote in the Commons over the last weekend. The UK prime minister eventually got a majority for his text but accelerated adoption was
Current news is focusing on an issue that nevertheless concerns an expected long-term time horizon, i.e. 2030-2100. The issue of climate change and the challenge of limiting global warming to +2.0°C, even less if possible, on the only planet we
Risk assets were lifted this week by the partial US-China agreement and hopes of a solution to avoid a no-deal Brexit. The US-China agreement stipulated that Washington would not raise tariffs on $250bnworth of Chinese imports by 25-30% on October
Equity markets rebounded this week while bonds experienced a correction. Investors continue to attempt to gauge the reality of the deterioration in global manufacturing activity and the impact of the countermeasures in the form of monetary and fiscal support. Short-term
The economic and political climate is glum, and things continue to worsen. Although we do not predict a recession in the foreseeable future, we nevertheless cannot identify any factor likely to reverse the cycle. Looking at historical economic data for
"New kid on the block: EU-leningen in de LDI-portefeuille" -> https://www.opiniopro.com/2020/10/bmo/new-kid-on-the-block-eu-leningen-in-de-ldi-portefeuille/ #eu #ldi #coronavirus
"Growth is dependent on ongoing stimulus" -> https://www.opiniopro.com/2020/10/franklin-templeton/growth-is-dependent-on-ongoing-stimulus/ #assetallocation #coronavirus #growth #stimulus
