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Posts From Erste Group

Global Strategy 1Q 2022

Global Strategy 1Q 2022

🕔10:50, 12.Jan 2022

Strongly rising numbers of new COVID-19 infections, higher energy prices, and persistent bottlenecks in supply chains are dampening the short-term growth outlook. Beyond that horizon, the economic recovery should continue. The central banks will continue to reduce their purchase programmes.

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Massive misjudgment of US labor market

Massive misjudgment of US labor market

🕔10:12, 8.Jun 2020

Week Ahead  Focus: US labor market report, FOMC meeting, EZ GDP forecast, AT GDP forecast  Expectations for the labor market in May were grossly misjudged, even considering the extreme environment. The unemployment rate was reported at 13.3%. This is 1.4

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Labor market specifics in CEE

Labor market specifics in CEE

🕔14:07, 2.Jun 2020

Special Report | CEE | Economy The CEE labor market may seem barely affected by the virus if compared with a dramatic increase, first, in US jobless claims, and then the unemployment rate within a very short period of time.

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ECB to take next step

ECB to take next step

🕔13:11, 2.Jun 2020

Week Ahead  Focus: ECB Council meeting, EU Recovery Fund   The ECB’s Governing Council is to meet next week. We expect the PEPP purchasing program to be increased by EUR 500bn. While the Governing  …

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April retail sales to dive CORRECTED

April retail sales to dive CORRECTED

🕔12:05, 2.Jun 2020

CEE Market Insights  This week, we will continue with releases of the GDP structure in Czechia and Slovakia. We also get to see the first estimate of Serbian 1Q20 GDP. Serbia is likely to be the sweet spot in the

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USD: Sideways movement should remain for time being

USD: Sideways movement should remain for time being

🕔08:46, 29.May 2020

Forex News US dollar, Japanese yen, Swiss franc The euro has recently gained some ground and for the first time since the end of March, it reached values above USD 1.10. Fundamentally, there is some justification for this move, as

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Real economy data for April and GDP structure

Real economy data for April and GDP structure

🕔12:37, 26.May 2020

CEE Market Insights  At the end of this week, CEE countries will start to release their detailed GDP data for 1Q20. Croatia and Slovenia will publish their 1Q growth rates for the first time. We expect that Croatia’s economy grew

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CEE FX taking breather after first virus wave

CEE FX taking breather after first virus wave

🕔11:35, 26.May 2020

CEE Forex News | CEE | FX  After the first wave of the new coronavirus, FX markets in the region have calmed down. Things are far from being back to normal, however. Due to  …

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EZ: crisis does not hit all countries equally hard

EZ: crisis does not hit all countries equally hard

🕔13:16, 21.May 2020

The GDP data of the EU countries for 1Q developed very differently. Interestingly, there is no clear correlation between the duration of the quarantine measures taken and the economic damage caused. It is noticeable that countries such as Austria, Germany,

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Real economy in the clutches of the corona crisis

Real economy in the clutches of the corona crisis

🕔15:01, 18.May 2020

Credit Markets Weekly  Sovereign Austria, Sub-Sovereigns & Agencies, Financials & Covered Bonds, Corporate Bonds Earnings season demonstrates impact of COVID-19 pandemic The European reporting season is drawing to a close: More than 80% of the …

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Global Equity Ratings

Global Equity Ratings

🕔13:58, 18.May 2020

Preferred Sectors: Health Care and Consumer Staples 

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Sentiment should brighten in May

Sentiment should brighten in May

🕔09:38, 18.May 2020

Week Ahead Focus: Eurozone PMI data, Eurozone inflation  Looking ahead to next week (May 21), a first flash estimate of PMI data for the manufacturing and service sectors in the Eurozone, Germany and France for May will be released. In

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1QGDP growth in the region

1QGDP growth in the region

🕔13:38, 12.May 2020

CEE Market Insights Due Friday, economic growth in the first quarter in Czechia, Hungary, Poland, Romania and Slovakia will be the highlight of the week. Czechia and Slovakia are expected to contract 3.1% y/y and 3.9% y/y, respectively. Hungary, Poland

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Who decides on ECB purchases?

Who decides on ECB purchases?

🕔08:34, 11.May 2020

Week Ahead Focus: German Federal Constitutional Court ruling, US Labor Market Report, Eurozone public debt This week, the German Federal Constitutional Court ruled on a lawsuit against the purchase of government bonds by the ECB and thus the Bundesbank under

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CEE challenge: Going green

CEE challenge: Going green

🕔10:45, 8.May 2020

Once the turmoil caused by COVID-19 subsides, there will be a need for reflection and strategic decisions on how to move forward and be prepared for the next challenges to be faced. The vast majority of EU member countries opted

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Czech and Serbian central bank meeting

Czech and Serbian central bank meeting

🕔14:44, 5.May 2020

CEE Market Insights  This week, the central bank meetings in Czechia and Serbia should be the key events in the region. While stability of rates is broadly expected in Serbia, the Czech National Bank is, in our view, about to

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Fed remains in crisis mode

Fed remains in crisis mode

🕔10:10, 5.May 2020

Short Note US Fed  As had been widely expected, the FOMC, the decisive body of the US Fed, left monetary policy and thus also interest rates unchanged at the meeting that ended yesterday. The latter will not change anytime soon,

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ECB reduces interest rates, but does not cut key rates

ECB reduces interest rates, but does not cut key rates

🕔17:06, 4.May 2020

Short Note ECB ECB Council Meeting  At its meeting which ended today, the Governing Council decided on two further measures aimed primarily at ensuring that banks had sufficient liquidity at low interest rates. The ultimate goal is to keep lending

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IT: Fitch downgrades public debt

IT: Fitch downgrades public debt

🕔10:34, 4.May 2020

Week Ahead: Focus: Italy’s rating, EC spring forecast, US deficits  The corona crisis is particularly distressing for Italy, which had significant competitiveness deficits combined with a high public debt ratio even before the crisis erupted. For the rating agency Fitch,

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We lower our GDP forecast for 2020 to -3.5%

We lower our GDP forecast for 2020 to -3.5%

🕔13:50, 1.May 2020

Corona-Virus weighs on Eurozone economy All countries in the Eurozone have gradually begun to impose significant restrictions on public life from mid-March onwards in order to stem the spread of the coronavirus. We are therefore lowering our GDP forecast for

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Forex News

Forex News

🕔10:53, 30.Apr 2020

The EURUSD continued its sideways movement in April, although the range narrowed significantly. The outlook for both economic areas remains bleak and highly uncertain, both of which point to a sustained sideways trend. In this environment, long-term investments in either

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Will ECB prepare markets for rate cut?

Will ECB prepare markets for rate cut?

🕔10:50, 28.Apr 2020

Week Ahead  Focus: ECB, Eurozone Q1GDP and Inflation, US Fed and Q1 GDP  In the current environment, central banks are not waiting for scheduled meetings to make decisions, which reduces the importance of these meetings. For example, since the last

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We lower our GDP forecast for 2020 to -3.5%

We lower our GDP forecast for 2020 to -3.5%

🕔17:11, 24.Apr 2020

Corona-Virus weighs on Eurozone economy All countries in the Eurozone have gradually begun to impose significant restrictions on public life from mid-March onwards in order to stem the spread of the coronavirus. We are therefore lowering our GDP forecast for

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New GDP forecasts for the Eurozone, Austria and the US

New GDP forecasts for the Eurozone, Austria and the US

🕔10:00, 20.Apr 2020

Week Ahead  In view of the extension of quarantine measures in Italy and especially in France, we are lowering our GDP forecast for the Eurozone for 2020 from the previous -3.5% to -4.7%. In 2021, there should then be a

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Financing needs in CEE soar on coronavirus

Financing needs in CEE soar on coronavirus

🕔08:59, 20.Apr 2020

CEE Bond Market Report | CEE | Fixed Income  The coronavirus pandemic has hit CEE hard. Governments in most countries have come out with substantial stimulus packages, but the deterioration of tax revenues will also hit budgets. An inevitable consequence

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We lower our GDP forecast for 2020 to -3.5%

We lower our GDP forecast for 2020 to -3.5%

🕔17:01, 17.Apr 2020

Corona-Virus weighs on Eurozone economy All countries in the Eurozone have gradually begun to impose significant restrictions on public life from mid-March onwards in order to stem the spread of the coronavirus. We are therefore lowering our GDP forecast for

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CEE Market Insights Inflation in CEE

CEE Market Insights Inflation in CEE

🕔09:39, 15.Apr 2020

The week after Easter brings inflation releases across the region. For all of the countries, we expect to see easing inflation numbers in March. Such a development is mostly the outcome of the low oil price. On the other hand,

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The corona pandemic represents an entirely new challenge

The corona pandemic represents an entirely new challenge

🕔15:59, 9.Apr 2020

Global Strategy Q2 2020  For the time being, the corona pandemic has largely led to a standstill of economic activity. We expect recessions in the US and Europe as well as rising unemployment rates. Governments and central banks have taken

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March unemployment is due in Poland and Czechia

March unemployment is due in Poland and Czechia

🕔11:07, 7.Apr 2020

CEE Market Insights  Determining the probable impact of the coronavirus on the economy is the main news topic at the moment. Over the weekend, Hungary announced the fiscal package and more details should be delivered at the beginning of the

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Labour markets face historical challenge

Labour markets face historical challenge

🕔08:33, 6.Apr 2020

Week Ahead: Focus: Labor markets: Eurozone, Austria and the US, US labor market report March  Eurozone – trade and tourism most affected In the labor market data of large Eurozone countries published so far for the month of March, traces of

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Global Strategy Q2 2020

Global Strategy Q2 2020

🕔08:04, 3.Apr 2020

For the time being, the corona pandemic has largely led to a standstill of economic activity. We expect recessions in the US and Europe as well as rising unemployment rates. Governments and central banks have taken comprehensive measures in order

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USD: No sustained trend visible

USD: No sustained trend visible

🕔11:00, 2.Apr 2020

US dollar, Japanese yen, Swiss franc  The EURUSD is currently extremely volatile. While the euro was able to make significant gains for the time being due to the sharply reduced interest rate differential between the US and the Eurozone, a

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How much has market sentiment worsened?

How much has market sentiment worsened?

🕔07:03, 1.Apr 2020

CEE Market Insights  This week in CEE  Market sentiment data will be in focus this week – and the only question is by how much sentiment has worsened in March. Due to the dynamically changing situation, the February retail sales

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Adverse scenario becomes reality

Adverse scenario becomes reality

🕔11:32, 31.Mar 2020

Growth in CEE to dive deeper into negative territory Recent developments have deprived us of optimism and we revise our CEE growth forecast down to -4.7% this year. March PMI indices in Germany and the Eurozone plunged, dragged down by

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Are markets too optimistic?

Are markets too optimistic?

🕔05:59, 30.Mar 2020

Focus: Markets, stimulus packages, Eurozone inflation This week brought massive gains on the stock markets and yield premiums on the interest rate markets fell for the riskier investments. Spreads on Italian government bonds also fell. The markets have thus reacted

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We lower our GDP forecast for 2020 to -3.5%

We lower our GDP forecast for 2020 to -3.5%

🕔10:34, 26.Mar 2020

Corona-Virus weighs on Eurozone economy All countries in the Eurozone have gradually begun to impose significant restrictions on public life from mid-March onwards in order to stem the spread of the coronavirus. We are therefore lowering our GDP forecast for

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Coronavirus brings recession to CEE

Coronavirus brings recession to CEE

🕔08:05, 24.Mar 2020

Eurozone in recession, CEE as well The spread of coronavirus to Europe and exponentially rising number of infected people forced the introduction of preventive measures to reduce its speed. CEE countries have done so at a relatively early stage, but

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Preferred Sectors: Health Care and Consumer Staples

Preferred Sectors: Health Care and Consumer Staples

🕔15:10, 23.Mar 2020

Global Equity Ratings

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ECB and Fed flood markets

ECB and Fed flood markets

🕔10:53, 23.Mar 2020

Focus: ECB and US Fed measures, Eurozone PMIs he measures taken by central banks to counteract the economic downturn have been gathering considerable momentum for a good week now. We have listed the individual measures below. In summary, the central

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ECB agrees on targeted measures

ECB agrees on targeted measures

🕔15:35, 18.Mar 2020

ECB Council Meeting he meeting of the Governing Council brought some measures that had been expected, but also some that came as a surprise. The surprise was on the interest side. Not only did the central bank leave all key

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Recession in Eurozone to weigh further on CEE growth

Recession in Eurozone to weigh further on CEE growth

🕔13:48, 17.Mar 2020

CEE Market Insights  This week, we will see the inflation rate in Croatia as well as labor market data. In Poland, retail sales and industrial growth in February will be published; however, the impact of the coronavirus is still likely

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US Fed tries to stabilize markets

US Fed tries to stabilize markets

🕔12:42, 17.Mar 2020

Short Note | Major Markets | US Fed  Yesterday evening, and thus only three days before the end of the next regular meeting, the US Federal Reserve lowered the range for the key interest rate by 100 basis points to

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ECB eases capital requirements

ECB eases capital requirements

🕔11:39, 17.Mar 2020

Special | Financials & Covered Bonds | Eurozone In conjunction with the announcement by the Governing Council of additional liquidity support and increased asset purchases (see ECB Short Note of 12 March 2020), the ECB Banking Supervision announced a number

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CEE challenge: Demography

CEE challenge: Demography

🕔10:45, 12.Mar 2020

To mitigate its shrinking working age population, CEE has a hidden reserves in low female labor participation, low effective retirement age, as well as more active migration and family policies.  There is no quick way to escape aging as the

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CEE Market Insights

CEE Market Insights

🕔08:34, 11.Mar 2020

Due to the rapid spread of COVID-19 in Europe, we will revise our CEE growth forecast downward by around 0.3pp toward 2.6%, with country-specific revisions going from around 0.3pp in the cases of Czechia, Hungary and Poland to as much

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Week Ahead | ECB Governing Council meeting, Eurozone GDP

Week Ahead | ECB Governing Council meeting, Eurozone GDP

🕔09:43, 10.Mar 2020

How will the ECB react? Next week's meeting of the ECB’s Governing Council will be dominated by the rapid spread of the coronavirus outside China and also in Europe over the past few weeks. Some central banks have already reacted.

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Spread of SARS-CoV-2 to Europe

Spread of SARS-CoV-2 to Europe

🕔09:55, 6.Mar 2020

SARS-CoV-2 to weigh on economic outlook  Since the outbreak of the new Coronavirus in China at the end of December 2019, the situation has changed significantly. The number of infected people is tenfold compared to the SARS epidemic from 2003

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Clear differentiation indispensable

Clear differentiation indispensable

🕔16:00, 5.Mar 2020

High-yield market remains supported by favourable capital market environment The market for EUR bonds from non-financial companies with speculative rating has been growing steadily in recent years. The expansive monetary policy of the ECB has strongly contributed to this, causing

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Focus: Effects of Covid-19

Focus: Effects of Covid-19

🕔14:56, 5.Mar 2020

Markets in turmoil – our outlook Nobody can currently estimate how fast and how far the new coronavirus will spread. The markets have reacted strongly this week, probably too strongly, to the global spread of the virus. We expect the

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FOMC interest rate decision

FOMC interest rate decision

🕔09:28, 5.Mar 2020

Short Note US Fed The US Fed has taken the unusual step of cutting interest rates between two scheduled meetings of the FOMC. The range for the key interest rate was reduced by 0.5% to 1-1.25% yesterday. The reason given

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