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Posts From Erste Group

Massive misjudgment of US labor market

Massive misjudgment of US labor market

🕔10:12, 8.Jun 2020

Week Ahead  Focus: US labor market report, FOMC meeting, EZ GDP forecast, AT GDP forecast  Expectations for the labor market in May were grossly misjudged, even considering the extreme environment. The unemployment rate was reported at 13.3%. This is 1.4

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Labor market specifics in CEE

Labor market specifics in CEE

🕔14:07, 2.Jun 2020

Special Report | CEE | Economy The CEE labor market may seem barely affected by the virus if compared with a dramatic increase, first, in US jobless claims, and then the unemployment rate within a very short period of time.

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ECB to take next step

ECB to take next step

🕔13:11, 2.Jun 2020

Week Ahead  Focus: ECB Council meeting, EU Recovery Fund   The ECB’s Governing Council is to meet next week. We expect the PEPP purchasing program to be increased by EUR 500bn. While the Governing  …

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April retail sales to dive CORRECTED

April retail sales to dive CORRECTED

🕔12:05, 2.Jun 2020

CEE Market Insights  This week, we will continue with releases of the GDP structure in Czechia and Slovakia. We also get to see the first estimate of Serbian 1Q20 GDP. Serbia is likely to be the sweet spot in the

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USD: Sideways movement should remain for time being

USD: Sideways movement should remain for time being

🕔08:46, 29.May 2020

Forex News US dollar, Japanese yen, Swiss franc The euro has recently gained some ground and for the first time since the end of March, it reached values above USD 1.10. Fundamentally, there is some justification for this move, as

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Real economy data for April and GDP structure

Real economy data for April and GDP structure

🕔12:37, 26.May 2020

CEE Market Insights  At the end of this week, CEE countries will start to release their detailed GDP data for 1Q20. Croatia and Slovenia will publish their 1Q growth rates for the first time. We expect that Croatia’s economy grew

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CEE FX taking breather after first virus wave

CEE FX taking breather after first virus wave

🕔11:35, 26.May 2020

CEE Forex News | CEE | FX  After the first wave of the new coronavirus, FX markets in the region have calmed down. Things are far from being back to normal, however. Due to  …

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EZ: crisis does not hit all countries equally hard

EZ: crisis does not hit all countries equally hard

🕔13:16, 21.May 2020

The GDP data of the EU countries for 1Q developed very differently. Interestingly, there is no clear correlation between the duration of the quarantine measures taken and the economic damage caused. It is noticeable that countries such as Austria, Germany,

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Real economy in the clutches of the corona crisis

Real economy in the clutches of the corona crisis

🕔15:01, 18.May 2020

Credit Markets Weekly  Sovereign Austria, Sub-Sovereigns & Agencies, Financials & Covered Bonds, Corporate Bonds Earnings season demonstrates impact of COVID-19 pandemic The European reporting season is drawing to a close: More than 80% of the …

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Global Equity Ratings

Global Equity Ratings

🕔13:58, 18.May 2020

Preferred Sectors: Health Care and Consumer Staples 

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Sentiment should brighten in May

Sentiment should brighten in May

🕔09:38, 18.May 2020

Week Ahead Focus: Eurozone PMI data, Eurozone inflation  Looking ahead to next week (May 21), a first flash estimate of PMI data for the manufacturing and service sectors in the Eurozone, Germany and France for May will be released. In

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1QGDP growth in the region

1QGDP growth in the region

🕔13:38, 12.May 2020

CEE Market Insights Due Friday, economic growth in the first quarter in Czechia, Hungary, Poland, Romania and Slovakia will be the highlight of the week. Czechia and Slovakia are expected to contract 3.1% y/y and 3.9% y/y, respectively. Hungary, Poland

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Who decides on ECB purchases?

Who decides on ECB purchases?

🕔08:34, 11.May 2020

Week Ahead Focus: German Federal Constitutional Court ruling, US Labor Market Report, Eurozone public debt This week, the German Federal Constitutional Court ruled on a lawsuit against the purchase of government bonds by the ECB and thus the Bundesbank under

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CEE challenge: Going green

CEE challenge: Going green

🕔10:45, 8.May 2020

Once the turmoil caused by COVID-19 subsides, there will be a need for reflection and strategic decisions on how to move forward and be prepared for the next challenges to be faced. The vast majority of EU member countries opted

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Czech and Serbian central bank meeting

Czech and Serbian central bank meeting

🕔14:44, 5.May 2020

CEE Market Insights  This week, the central bank meetings in Czechia and Serbia should be the key events in the region. While stability of rates is broadly expected in Serbia, the Czech National Bank is, in our view, about to

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Fed remains in crisis mode

Fed remains in crisis mode

🕔10:10, 5.May 2020

Short Note US Fed  As had been widely expected, the FOMC, the decisive body of the US Fed, left monetary policy and thus also interest rates unchanged at the meeting that ended yesterday. The latter will not change anytime soon,

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ECB reduces interest rates, but does not cut key rates

ECB reduces interest rates, but does not cut key rates

🕔17:06, 4.May 2020

Short Note ECB ECB Council Meeting  At its meeting which ended today, the Governing Council decided on two further measures aimed primarily at ensuring that banks had sufficient liquidity at low interest rates. The ultimate goal is to keep lending

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IT: Fitch downgrades public debt

IT: Fitch downgrades public debt

🕔10:34, 4.May 2020

Week Ahead: Focus: Italy’s rating, EC spring forecast, US deficits  The corona crisis is particularly distressing for Italy, which had significant competitiveness deficits combined with a high public debt ratio even before the crisis erupted. For the rating agency Fitch,

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We lower our GDP forecast for 2020 to -3.5%

We lower our GDP forecast for 2020 to -3.5%

🕔13:50, 1.May 2020

Corona-Virus weighs on Eurozone economy All countries in the Eurozone have gradually begun to impose significant restrictions on public life from mid-March onwards in order to stem the spread of the coronavirus. We are therefore lowering our GDP forecast for

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Forex News

Forex News

🕔10:53, 30.Apr 2020

The EURUSD continued its sideways movement in April, although the range narrowed significantly. The outlook for both economic areas remains bleak and highly uncertain, both of which point to a sustained sideways trend. In this environment, long-term investments in either

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Will ECB prepare markets for rate cut?

Will ECB prepare markets for rate cut?

🕔10:50, 28.Apr 2020

Week Ahead  Focus: ECB, Eurozone Q1GDP and Inflation, US Fed and Q1 GDP  In the current environment, central banks are not waiting for scheduled meetings to make decisions, which reduces the importance of these meetings. For example, since the last

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We lower our GDP forecast for 2020 to -3.5%

We lower our GDP forecast for 2020 to -3.5%

🕔17:11, 24.Apr 2020

Corona-Virus weighs on Eurozone economy All countries in the Eurozone have gradually begun to impose significant restrictions on public life from mid-March onwards in order to stem the spread of the coronavirus. We are therefore lowering our GDP forecast for

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New GDP forecasts for the Eurozone, Austria and the US

New GDP forecasts for the Eurozone, Austria and the US

🕔10:00, 20.Apr 2020

Week Ahead  In view of the extension of quarantine measures in Italy and especially in France, we are lowering our GDP forecast for the Eurozone for 2020 from the previous -3.5% to -4.7%. In 2021, there should then be a

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Financing needs in CEE soar on coronavirus

Financing needs in CEE soar on coronavirus

🕔08:59, 20.Apr 2020

CEE Bond Market Report | CEE | Fixed Income  The coronavirus pandemic has hit CEE hard. Governments in most countries have come out with substantial stimulus packages, but the deterioration of tax revenues will also hit budgets. An inevitable consequence

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We lower our GDP forecast for 2020 to -3.5%

We lower our GDP forecast for 2020 to -3.5%

🕔17:01, 17.Apr 2020

Corona-Virus weighs on Eurozone economy All countries in the Eurozone have gradually begun to impose significant restrictions on public life from mid-March onwards in order to stem the spread of the coronavirus. We are therefore lowering our GDP forecast for

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