In recent analyses of major developed economies, mixed signals emerge from leading indicators, presenting an unclear future trajectory. The Conference Board’s Leading Index, for instance, provides some evidence supporting the possibility of an impending recession. Nevertheless, there are indicators like
Decoding Policy Shifts In the intricate dance of global economics, Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions' report, "Policy is key", spotlights the evolving monetary strategies of major central banks. Amid the dance of financial markets, the focus is now on identifying the
The main theme of the reasearch revolves around the Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions (FTIS) 2023 Capital Market Expectations (CMEs), which cover their 10-year forecast for asset class returns and volatility. The CMEs also discuss how FTIS believes economic themes such
The first month of 2023 was quite the contrast to the dismal financial market returns posted last year. We have seen a growing belief form in markets that inflation—the prime driver of last year’s pain—has not just peaked but is
Central bank watch: The global hiking cycle is in full swing. In our analysis, we expect all central banks, except the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the People’s Bank of China (PBoC), to remain formidable hawks until at least early
Introduction The subject of inflation has been seemingly omnipresent over the past two years as the global economy moved beyond the initial shock of a global economic shutdown into a world of supply disruptions and pent-up consumer demand. Initial conjecture
The subject of inflation has been seemingly omnipresent over the past two years as the global economy moved beyond the initial shock of a global economic shutdown into a world of supply disruptions and pent-up consumer demand. Initial conjecture over
Please open the 15 pgae report for more information
At the recent COP267 conference, members of the Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero (GFANZ), of which Franklin Templeton is a member, signed a commitment to deploy over US$100 trillion in financing over the next three decades to move the
The long-held view that stock-based diversification is a good way to minimize risk in an actively managed fund has led to an increase in portfolios that may hold too many securities. Portfolios with 100 stocks, or more, can dilute the
Inflation and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine dominate media headlines and the economic and financial environment. US inflation has accelerated further to an average of nearly 7% year-over-year (Y/Y) in the six months through February, from close to 6% over the
Simplify the problem: A tighter focus. It has been an eventful start to the year. A significant rotation in equity market leadership in the early part of 2022’s first quarter saw the prospects for growth stocks derailed. This was followed
In February 2018, Templeton Global Macro (TGM) released its original paper on the topic of environmental, social and governance (ESG) factors in sovereign fixed income investing. The paper (Global Macro Shifts—issue 9 [GMS-9]) explored the team’s novel approach to ESG
After a relatively limited election cycle across Latin America (Latam) in 2020, 2021 will surely go down in history as one of the most dramatic years for the region. Shockwaves were created in numerous elections and traditional parties saw their
The global economy is currently facing headwinds because of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, but there are several reasons to be optimistic about the outlook for equities in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, according to Franklin Templeton Emerging Markets
Inflation has returned decisively onto the global economic scene. In the United States, headline CPI (Consumer Price Index) reached close to 7% in November, the highest in nearly 40 years; in the euro area it reached close to 5%, the
Global equity markets edged down during 2021’s third quarter (Q3). Early in the period, strong corporate earnings in several parts of the world, full US regulatory approval for a COVID-19 vaccine, and the Chinese central bank’s liquidity-boosting measures aided markets.
Allocation views When faced with tough choices, we are inclined to limit the damage that is suffered. This is human instinct—a survival mechanism of sorts. It also brings to mind an old quip that portfolio managers use when considering outperforming
The past month has seen geopolitics move back into the headlines as the United States and its allies made a final withdrawal from Afghanistan. Reflecting on the often messy resolution of military conflicts over the ages, the concept …
When we entered the second quarter of 2021, we stated in Allocation Views that “sometimes it is right to just go with the flow, at least for a while.” We thought that “this is perhaps one of those times” when
In a year that saw record foreign inflows to Chinese bonds, 2020 was also a reflective year for me personally, having watched China’s economy grow over the last 40 years. I first traveled to China in
In February 2018, Templeton Global Macro (TGM) released its original paper on the topic of environmental, social and governance (ESG) factors in sovereign fixed income investing. The paper (Global Macro Shifts—issue 9 [GMS-9]) explored the team’s novel approach to ESG
Our outlook draws on our wide range of independent investment managers to deliver asset class insights. Each manager approaches the economic environment with a different lens and offers views to help inform your decision making. As we look forward to
We have seen an exceptionally sharp pickup in growth expectations, centered on the United States. Economists have adopted a narrative of a rapid fiscally fueled expansion, which supports a strong rebound in corporate earnings. Some of the drivers are global in nature, such as the continued rollout of vaccines that appear to be having the desired effect …
It seems like global financial markets and economies are experiencing a neverending fluctuation between increased clarity, as we described in last months’ Allocation Views, and continued uncertainty. Depending on …
As we enter 2021, financial markets appear to be clinging to a more optimistic view of the world than the one we left behind in 2020. Undoubtedly we have reasons to be more hopeful, but it seems that we still
Continued support for asset returns 2021 Capital Market Expectations We believe global stocks have greater performance potential than global bonds, supported by sustained growth and moderate inflation. With short-term interest rates and government bond term premia remaining below historical averages,
The themes we discuss at our Annual Investment Symposium guide our research process. Over a longer-term horizon, we believe global stocks have greater performance potential than global bonds, supported by sustained growth and moderate inflation. With government bond term premia
Franklin Templeton Thinks [tm]: Water Disruption There is a lot of talk about how regulatory reforms connected to climate change will impact financial markets. However, we firmly believe the leading issue, at the end of the day, is that we
Allocation views We are growing more accustomed to the strange new landscape left behind after the COVID-19 recession. The virus threat remains very real, with notable flare-ups in Europe more recently, even as populations get more used to dealing with
On the back of a second-quarter rally across emerging market debt (EMD), sovereign bond vulnerabilities still vary signifi cantly by region and country. Lower oil prices offer a boost to oil importers like the Dominican Republic, but if prices fall
Over the last decade, smartphones have revolutionized our lives in ways that go well beyond mere audio communication. In addition to Facetime video chats, texting and emailing, billions of people globally use smartphones to shop online, check the weather, hail
There is no doubt that news surrounding COVID-19 and the fascinating volatility in the publicly traded markets due to this global pandemic have captivated nearly everyone’s attention in recent months. The private credit markets, which tend to be less thoroughly
Allocation views As we enter the typically quieter months of the northern-hemisphere summer, we are starting to adapt to a new way of doing things. It is not quite as it was before, but it …
Allocation views Last month in Allocation Views, we wrote about financial markets becoming inured to the publication of data that had been shockingly weak. Indeed, the level …
We are now in the early stages of a downturn that will be more profound, in terms of economic and social magnitude, than the global financial crisis (GFC). Global growth is expected to experience a contraction five times what was
Investing in science China has been much in the news recently as it handles the COVID-19 virus, and because of political and trade tensions with the West. We continue to believe China remains a growth opportunity for investors. Indeed, by
Hold the course As the world adjusts to life with the specter of COVID-19, it is increasingly clear that much has changed. We have become used to social distancing and unimaginably weak economic data. However, although we have become familiar
As investors navigate new market uncertainties, we believe the trend away from traditional asset classes in the search for income in a low-yield environment is likely to continue, if not accelerate, as the world begins to navigate a new economic
Allocation views We have seen a robust global central bank policy response that, in its breadth and scale, is larger than all the stimulus programs seen during the 2008 global financial crisis. Events and timelines have been compressed in this
Q2 2020 Outlook: Summary In our view, pricing dislocations between companies, industries, regions and asset classes due to the impact of COVID-19 and corresponding price adjustments offer abundant opportunities for select hedged strategies. The length and depth of both the
For several years, Templeton Global Macro (TGM) has been at the forefront of incorporating environmental, social and governance (ESG) factors into sovereign fixed income investing. Our proprietary Templeton Global Macro ESG Index (TGM-ESGI) was one of the first methodologies in
A global update from Franklin Templeton Multi-Asset Solutions When we turned the calendar over to a new year and a new decade, little did we know how different the world would look in just three short months. A silver lining:
In this issue, we describe a framework to help us work through a sharp deterioration in market sentiment. As policymakers are called upon to provide support to the global economy, we focus on how the evolving macroeconomic backdrop is affecting
Looking at the economic and market outlook for 2020 just a few months ago, there’s no doubt times have changed. The spread of the coronavirus dealt a severe, unexpected shock that impacted people— and markets—around the globe. Many investors are
Key Takeaways We believe it is important for investors to understand the differences between sponsored and non-sponsored direct lending approaches. There are advantages and disadvantages to both. As a lender, we think it’s wise to pursue both approaches. Both can
The impact of the coronavirus on the US economy still isn’t fully known yet, as the situation continues to evolve. However, Franklin Equity Group’s Grant Bowers sees at least three reasons to be optimistic about the long‑term recovery.
Beyond Bulls & Bears The US Federal Reserve continues to use whatever tools it can to help combat economic fallout from the coronavirus. Sonal Desai, Chief Investment Officer, Franklin Templeton Fixed Income, calls its latest response “a whole new level”
Allocation views Our view of global growth has been getting more optimistic over the last few months as signs of stabilization have appeared in many economies. Areas that were notably weak, such as manufacturing in Germany, have turned up somewhat
In this issue New year, new decade, we’re off to the races. None of the doom-and-gloom predictions materialized in 2019. Trade tensions did not spiral into out-of-control trade wars, new tariffs did not have a major macroeconomic impact, the US
