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The mystery of SOE debt

The mystery of SOE debt

🕔14:32, 14.Sep 2020

The great majority of SOE funding is domestically sourced by local banks.1 However, within the past decade, SOEs have chosen to diversify their funding sources by venturing into the international capital markets. As a result, SOE debt has become a

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Government Bonds Have Given Us So Much

Government Bonds Have Given Us So Much

🕔13:07, 4.Sep 2020

A Roadmap For Navigating Today’s Low Interest Rates The recent fall in cash and bond yields for those developed countries that still had positive yields has left government bonds in a position where they cannot provide two of the basic

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Sovereign Contingent Bonds: How Emerging Countries Might Prepay for Debt Relief

Sovereign Contingent Bonds: How Emerging Countries Might Prepay for Debt Relief

🕔09:57, 25.Aug 2020

Emerging countries have been in the midst of a crisis that is not of their own making. A great majority of these countries are navigating the crisis fairly well. Others are struggling, and a few have defaulted on their external

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Emerging markets – Tamed Child O’ Mine

Emerging markets – Tamed Child O’ Mine

🕔14:48, 21.Jul 2020

This paper highlights five reasons why Emerging Markets (EM) in aggregate are more resilient today than in prior periods. A “healthier” index composition in addition to four other reasons support our analysis that EM drawdowns will be significantly more muted

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Why we are not worried about elevated profit margins

Why we are not worried about elevated profit margins

🕔08:09, 17.Jul 2020

Concerns about margins and profitability are not new but are especially acute as we enter a recession. In the decade following the Great Recession, the net income  …

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Uncertainty Has Seldom Been Higher

Uncertainty Has Seldom Been Higher

🕔11:37, 8.Jun 2020

Quarterly Letter At the March lows, most risk assets appeared to be fair value or cheap, even assuming a moderate hit to fair value from a severe recession. In our multi-asset portfolios, we added to our …

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An Investment Only a Mother Could Love: The Case for Natural Resource Equities

An Investment Only a Mother Could Love: The Case for Natural Resource Equities

🕔14:09, 29.May 2020

Executive summary After a rough decade for commodities and commodity producers, we see resource companies trading at record low valuation levels relative to the broad equity market on some measures. Even if commodity prices were to stay flat, public resource

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Introducing “Stressed Performing Credit”

Introducing “Stressed Performing Credit”

🕔08:56, 19.May 2020

White Paper Rising Stars in a New (Fed) World Recent unprecedented action by central banks, notably the Federal Reserve on April 9th, has helped markets recover meaningfully. This has caused many investors to wonder, “What do we do next?” or,

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The passive aggressive AGG, revisited

The passive aggressive AGG, revisited

🕔16:41, 8.May 2020

Passive investing in bonds today turns prudence on its head   It is well understood among investors that there have been massive flows out of active equity funds into passive vehicles, such as index funds and ETFs. What has not been

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Top-Down Investing In Emerging Market Equities

Top-Down Investing In Emerging Market Equities

🕔14:00, 23.Apr 2020

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY We believe that getting the country call right is the most important decision when investing in Emerging Market equities. Over the last 10 years, top-down (i.e., country and sector) Value has outperformed in these markets, even as bottom-up

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Fear and the psychology of bear markets

Fear and the psychology of bear markets

🕔07:54, 22.Apr 2020

When I first contemplated writing this series, little did I know I would feel the urge to write a second memo so shortly after the first, so forgive me for adding to the burden of your reading. However, you will

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When Cheap Gets Cheaper

When Cheap Gets Cheaper

🕔08:07, 14.Apr 2020

It is always darkest before the down It has been an extraordinary four weeks in markets worldwide. In the past 20 trading sessions, the S&P 500 has seen more 3%+ daily swings than it had in the previous 5 years.

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Memo to the Investment Committee: Dare to be Different

Memo to the Investment Committee: Dare to be Different

🕔06:39, 23.Mar 2020

White paper 60/40 Won’t Cut the Mustard The biggest single challenge facing investors today, in my humble or otherwise opinion, is that the returns to a conventional 60/40 portfolio look set to be somewhere between very low and zero. For

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7-year asset class real return forecasts

7-year asset class real return forecasts

🕔09:13, 17.Mar 2020 Read Full Article
7-Year Asset Class Real Return Forecasts

7-Year Asset Class Real Return Forecasts

🕔07:14, 13.Jan 2020

Source: GMO *The chart represents local, real return forecasts for several asset classes and not for any GMO fund or strategy. These forecasts are forward-looking statements based upon the reasonable beliefs of GMO and are not a guarantee of future

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Getting Comfortable with the Uncomfortable

Getting Comfortable with the Uncomfortable

🕔18:28, 16.Dec 2019

Asset Allocation Insights Emerging Market Stocks: Getting Comfortable with the Uncomfortable Owning emerging market stocks has been a frustrating experience recently. Since the start of 2018, the MSCI Emerging Markets index has fallen 9.5% in USD terms (3.1% local)1 while

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Getting Comfortable with the Uncomfortable

Getting Comfortable with the Uncomfortable

🕔17:09, 6.Nov 2019

Owning emerging market stocks has been a frustrating experience recently. Since the start of 2018, the MSCI Emerging Markets index has fallen 9.5% in USD terms (3.1% local)1 while other markets, the S&P 500 in particular, have rallied. Emerging’s disappointing returns represent the

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7-Year Asset Class Real Return Forecasts

7-Year Asset Class Real Return Forecasts

🕔13:05, 30.Sep 2019

7-Year Asset Class Real Return Forecasts7-Year Asset Class Real Return Forecasts

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Risk and Premium –  A Tale of Value

Risk and Premium – A Tale of Value

🕔18:26, 9.Sep 2019

White Paper Introduction Whatever price multiple of which you are a fan, whichever sectors you exclude, however you neutralize your exposures, whether you equal-weight or cap-weight, one thing remains true: cheap stocks have had an unhappy decade.1 In some cases

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EM Illiquid Is Not The Same As EM Small Cap

EM Illiquid Is Not The Same As EM Small Cap

🕔18:18, 9.Sep 2019

Small cap stocks within emerging markets have outperformed large cap stocks (i.e., MSCI EM) by around 0.5% annualized since January 2000. However, Illiquid stocks (regardless of capitalization) have outperformed large cap stocks by around 3%. This illiquidity premium is related

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EM Divergence on the Increase

EM Divergence on the Increase

🕔18:07, 9.Sep 2019

Portfolio Manager Perspectives BlueBay Emerging Market Debt Update Fall-out from Argentina, combined with global growth concerns, results in increased divergence between EM sub-sectors. Global equity markets were once again volatile with a sell-off to start the week before staging a

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Valuation Metrics In Emerging Debt

Valuation Metrics In Emerging Debt

🕔14:59, 26.Jul 2019

It has been a very strong year for emerging external sovereign and local currency bond markets. Sovereign credit spreads have fallen, emerging currencies have risen against the U.S. dollar, and local bond markets have also rallied. The EMBIG index is

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Value Investing

Value Investing

🕔19:02, 18.May 2019

Bruised by 1000 Cuts The duration and magnitude of value’s recent underperformance has caused many to ask once again if value investing is no longer effective. While it is possible that secular shifts have helped to compress value’s premium relative

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Stop worrying about your portfolio

Stop worrying about your portfolio

🕔17:02, 14.May 2019

Investors have a tendency to focus on the characteristics of their portfolios almost to the exclusion of other factors that will lead to success or failure for the larger objective that the portfolio is intended to serve. By taking into

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How and Why to Invest in a Climate Change Strategy

How and Why to Invest in a Climate Change Strategy

🕔15:02, 4.May 2019

Hurricanes, typhoons, droughts, wildfires, and other extreme weather events are causing record damage. Increasingly, climate change is impacting the economy and our daily lives and has come into focus as an existential threat to the world as we know it.1

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Featured Events & Webinars

  1. T. Rowe Price – Webinar – What will a new era bring for Japan?

    October 7 @ 10:00 - 10:30

Twitter

Investors need to manage risk to take a breather and observe the shifting global economy, says our expert #Norman_Villamin in the Hong Kong Economic Times. Read on.

First of its kind biodiversity tool for investors announced - via ⁦@AdviserVoice⁩ https://www.adviservoice.com.au/2020/09/first-of-its-kind-biodiversity-tool-for-investors-announced/

According to the new edition of the #PPIFutureBook, there are now 14.6 million DC savers in the UK. Of these, 10.3 million employees were enrolled automatically, nearly twice as many as in 2015 (5.4 million). @PPI_Research #pensions #definedcontribution https://bit.ly/2SakPKM

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